[XMR] Monero Speculation

[magico]

Buying @0.0143 I must be crazy

Don't sell in case of huge correction/crash in september. It's longterm investment.

I've bought some @0.003-@0.004 in 2015-03... And then it's crashed. Not sold.
And I'm happy now

[tifozi]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

But it looks like you are very poor at this game. If we all follow you, we will have a nightmare scenario going on 

I sold 55% of my xmr today for a nice healthy profit. I'll buy back in a few months when the price has shed over 50% of its gains.

[mastertrader777]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

I sold 55% of my xmr today for a nice healthy profit. I'll buy back in a few months when the price has shed over 50% of its gains.

Soooo, you're still shorting?

Let me ask, when did you buy back?

LMAO.

[coinism]

i've ridden some coins up and all the way back down. all of those coins had something special but none of them had the kind of privacy monero offers. Based on the fact that monero is a much safer and better option compared to bitcoin and dnms starting to use them: something special might be happening here. big price correction swings ahead for sure, but it could be just the beginning of a much longer ride to a much bigger mc. it almost doesn't matter if you sell now or buy now, either way you will make profit.

 

[smoothie]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

The train literally just left, do you tend to jump off the train while it is in full throttle motion?

You are probably right...price will go down...and it will go up...and then down again...and up...rinse...repeat.

[smoothie]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

I sold 55% of my xmr today for a nice healthy profit. I'll buy back in a few months when the price has shed over 50% of its gains.

Soooo, you're still shorting?

Let me ask, when did you buy back?

LMAO.

so based on his comment he is expecting at the most $2.50 will be the bottom to get back in. He sold on Aug 23 at the latest his "50%". So that is roughly $2.50.

Let's see if we get to $2.50 in a few months. 

[aminorex]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

I can understand why this might seem rational, on the basis of priors carried over from other assets, but you should please recall BTC 2013.  It is unlikely that this will repeat, right here, right now, but if it does while you are short, your account will be liquidated and you will have to start over.  Maybe take a smallish short, with a tight stop, so you don't get ruined?  Unless you have very high confidence probability estimates, you can't really calibrate your leverage-space (Kelly in a levered context) optimum position size, so there are significant unknowns involved, of both known and unknown varieties.

Given the upside asymmetry of Monero, if you must trade, I recommend varying your position size between, say, 0.5 and 1.0 of your Monero-allocated capital.  If you are out-performing buy-and-hold after a few months, then you might consider increasing your leverage range.

[tifozi]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

I can understand why this might seem rational, on the basis of priors carried over from other assets, but you should please recall BTC 2013.  It is unlikely that this will repeat, right here, right now, but if it does while you are short, your account will be liquidated and you will have to start over.  Maybe take a smallish short, with a tight stop, so you don't get ruined?  Unless you have very high confidence probability estimates, you can't really calibrate your leverage-space (Kelly in a levered context) optimum position size, so there are significant unknowns involved, of both known and unknown varieties.

Given the upside assymmetry of Monero, if you must trade, I recommend varying your position size between, say, 0.5 and 1.0 of your Monero-allocated capital.  If you are out-performing buy-and-hold after a few months, then you might consider increasing your leverage range.

Way too much information for an obvious troll to digest 

We will have more cousins from the primer~ family in the coming days (some have already been silenced and not heard from again). I recommend conserving bandwidth.

[Altitude]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

But it looks like you are very poor at this game. If we all follow you, we will have a nightmare scenario going on 

I sold 55% of my xmr today for a nice healthy profit. I'll buy back in a few months when the price has shed over 50% of its gains.

You mean selling my xmr for profit makes me poor? Dont be so foolish young investor. Profits are what this is all about. Its not about holding and supporting forever. Its about making money.

[Altitude]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

The train literally just left, do you tend to jump off the train while it is in full throttle motion?

You are probably right...price will go down...and it will go up...and then down again...and up...rinse...repeat.

Yep but its going down first. We'll see a retest of 0.009 at least but more likely to 0.006.

[rpietila]

New poll on XMR price - cast your vote !!

[Altitude]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

I can understand why this might seem rational, on the basis of priors carried over from other assets, but you should please recall BTC 2013.  It is unlikely that this will repeat, right here, right now, but if it does while you are short, your account will be liquidated and you will have to start over.  Maybe take a smallish short, with a tight stop, so you don't get ruined?  Unless you have very high confidence probability estimates, you can't really calibrate your leverage-space (Kelly in a levered context) optimum position size, so there are significant unknowns involved, of both known and unknown varieties.

Given the upside asymmetry of Monero, if you must trade, I recommend varying your position size between, say, 0.5 and 1.0 of your Monero-allocated capital.  If you are out-performing buy-and-hold after a few months, then you might consider increasing your leverage range.

Umm What?

 

I have a very high confidence that xmr is coming way back down before it ever hits a new ath.

[aminorex]

I have a very high confidence that xmr is coming way back down before it ever hits a new ath.

Well, then.  Go for it.

[Fragbait]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

160 BTC is 0.2% of daily volume. Is that supposed to be such a huge wall to cause any movement (or obstacle of movement) in price and to be upset about? Unless it's an independent 3rd party and prevents insiders trading from their left hand to the right and back?

[smoothie]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

The train literally just left, do you tend to jump off the train while it is in full throttle motion?

You are probably right...price will go down...and it will go up...and then down again...and up...rinse...repeat.

Yep but its going down first. We'll see a retest of 0.009 at least but more likely to 0.006.

let's see if 0.009 or 0.006 gets hit first before going higher...

[smoothie]

Guys, it cant continue going up and up and up. It needs a nice retrace and does have many old bagholders who are newly rich and will be cashing out soon. The end of the year is coming, the holidays are coming and people know this and want to lock in profit before everyone else starts locking in their end of the year profit. I wont be the last one locking in profit, I want to be the first and lock in the most possible. Dont you?
So based on that it's coming down, it may go back up a bit before it tumbles but for the next months this thing needs to chill and come back to reality. Hype can only take you so far, soon the buyers will dry up and the sellers will be out in force.

I can understand why this might seem rational, on the basis of priors carried over from other assets, but you should please recall BTC 2013.  It is unlikely that this will repeat, right here, right now, but if it does while you are short, your account will be liquidated and you will have to start over.  Maybe take a smallish short, with a tight stop, so you don't get ruined?  Unless you have very high confidence probability estimates, you can't really calibrate your leverage-space (Kelly in a levered context) optimum position size, so there are significant unknowns involved, of both known and unknown varieties.

Given the upside asymmetry of Monero, if you must trade, I recommend varying your position size between, say, 0.5 and 1.0 of your Monero-allocated capital.  If you are out-performing buy-and-hold after a few months, then you might consider increasing your leverage range.

Umm What?

 

I have a very high confidence that xmr is coming way back down before it ever hits a new ath.

then you should be shorting XMR to hell. Leveraging up your assets to bet against a new ATH for XMR right?

[rpietila]

let's see if 0.009 or 0.006 gets hit first before going higher...

Make your forecast in the new poll!

I will also speculate more there, according to my speculation framework.

[smoothie]

let's see if 0.009 or 0.006 gets hit first before going higher...

Make your forecast in the new poll!

I will also speculate more there, according to my speculation framework.

I've cast my vote already.

Rpietila, for someone who claims to have no monero you sure are interested in its price.

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero Rising: Why Dark Markets Matter

https://news.bitcoin.com/monero-rising-dark-markets-matter/

[aminorex]

Mr. shortypants is gointa be in a world of hurt.  I mean, that 160 btc sell wall at 016 absolutely reeked of desperation.  It's just crazy stupid to try to front-run "sell the news" 3 days too soon.  The punters haven't had a chance to buy the rumor yet.

160 BTC is 0.2% of daily volume. Is that supposed to be such a huge wall to cause any movement (or obstacle of movement) in price and to be upset about? Unless it's an independent 3rd party and prevents insiders trading from their left hand to the right and back?

Your commentary doesn't seem to be strongly related to my post.  I'm not even trading anymore.  I've gone into deep-roving HODL mode. (I am trading in a couple of hundred every once in a while to help friends and family, or as a place-marker to remind me to test an idea, but its not intended to increase my XMR, which is as large as I can comfortably hold at this level in the development of the economy.)  

I am, objectively speaking, an uber-bull on XMR:  I think it has marvelous asymmetry of risk, and vast upside potential.  Everyone who deserves wealth should own as much as they can comfortably hold, immediately, at any price.  Please notice that some of the wealthiest and most experienced participants in this thread are also uber-bulls.

I am also an advocate, an activist, ideologically supportive, and I consider it a moral duty to do what I feasibly can to improve the development of XMR.  I recognize the price-discovery value of a short market.  I am not opposed to intelligent market-making, or even long/short speculations.  But slamming the book, that peeves me.  Any form of manipulative behaviour peeves me.  In particular, the trollish variety of shorts tick me off grandly.  But, it's an impotent sort of rage, so I try not to indulge it. I will, however, seize upon shadenfreude and run with it, if I see a badly behaving short player get their fingers burned.  I think the kids say 'rekt'.  I see it as karmic justice, as a brutal punishment the universe meets out on the foolish.  Justice is one of my highest values (truth, beauty, and love being the others).

In other news, a reminder of a golden oldie:

https://bitcoinism.liberty.me/only-the-black-market-matters/