[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Anonimal's Kovri Full Time Development Funding Thread - Currently at 77.46% (5,612/7,245 XMR)

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/86967/anonimal-s-kovri-development-funding-thread

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56qwi0/anonimals_kovri_forum_funding_has_been_created/

Ok. I purchased one full day of anonimal labor just now.

[moneyLooser]

Volume is so worse even with that positve news. I also sold my little 1500 xmr... at least with 7%... thanks for all supporters and realists here. Thank also to the devs who make this coin possible. I guess I'm out for now, to hot to lose money with that coin. I think, as already some ppl said, without a nice GUI, this coin will always have rocks on his path what makes it falling to his face.

[Shrikez]

All this talk about the necessity and convenience for mass adoption is nonsense at this point in time.

Mass adoption in the literal sense is a long way out. The only group that matters at the moment are people who are already into crypto or curious enough to venture into it. They are few, and their hearts and conviction will have to be conquered.

It is them who will be the ambassadors for when larger adoption actually becomes a possibility. It is their choices which will be the choices of the masses. It is their competence which will help the rest of the world to ease into it.

The GUI is important, of course. However it is not important for the masses, but to help in carving out a sufficiently large group from this mess that makes up
crypto: Idealists, techies, economists, thieves, liars... and all the "normal" people stumbling into this space thinking WOW wtf is going on in here this looks cool!

Just as I did a few years ago.

A group (or market share for the cynics) large enough to gain the necessary inertia to rocket past the cesspool of failed money grabbing shiny shit projects that make up 95% of this habitat.

[elrippo]

Dam i should have sold above 0.012 for a small profit, but i dont want to sell cheap. Now almost my entire profit is gone again. I guess a lot of people want to get out of xmr now, hence the low price.

What the hell are you talking about?! Just stay calm, hold your XMR and have a cup of tea 

[elrippo]

I wouldnt say its a short dump. I know few who are on short i also know some on long. So its equal.

Just some facts: Synchronizing took 30 Minutes to update from yesterday. Its just incredible slow. Than I want to transfer some coins from wallet to Polo...took also 20 Minutes until it arrived.

The console interface is still crap (yes it is, sorry fanboys). I mean what a non technique guy has to do if he wants to transfer coins? He need's to google first for a docu. Aha, first number mixing cycles (wtf is that, read further), than Address, amount, PID.

Moreover I would never store my coins on any site. (A non technique guy maybe would)

So 35 Minutes to do just 1 transfer + 30 minutes loading blockchain (ok he has also to do with a working GUI)

That simply sucks. And if anyone wants to object, than deliver another answer. Ordinary people want simple stuff. Ordinary people so far give a shit on privacy. Its a nice to have. In some countries its important. But as long as it's  not user friendly, it will only be used for illegal and criminal stuff. That's my thoughts. I dont blame the Dev Team for that. There is a big reward open for a GUI...i dont understand why no one is taking this challenge..but somewhen the GUI is there, I hope it's just not too late than. Anyway, I also sold some coins (EHT shorting), but keep some and keep this coin on monitoring.

#1
Hmmm, try that with BTC on your internet connection. Transfer with 1 confirmation can take an hour or more depending, which fees you are willing to pay excluding the sync of the wallet, so big minus for your argument.

#2
The last up leg, i honestly do not know if you noticed, ran without an official GUI for the wallet daemon, so you get another big minus for that one.

#3
Ordinary people as you and me, or do you believe only super heroes like Flash need privacy --> you guess what's comming, yep, the third big minus.

So three times a minus for three arguments discussed over and over and over again whit some world champion trader (made 200+BTC with over 150k XMR --> some people made that with less than 10k XMR) who honestly believes this will make a big difference. Either the tech is good, that's my prio, or i do not use it. DNM customers and vendoors accept XMR without any shiny GUI, why is that so.....

[N-rG]

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

This is why i will not buy more now after the increase, i will instead look after other coins to invest in with my few money i have left to invest. As for short term trading i did get a lot more xmr for my money by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.

In general you are correct about daytrading, especially when you factor in trading fees.

Personally i would wait until 18´th to 22´cnd Ocotber. Probably we will hit the 0,007xxx by then  

Too much people are waiting to buy at 0.01 or below, that's why I think it won't happen.

It defenitely will happen if you believe in fibonacci --> correction to the norm  

it will happen. or i hope that i will happen. then i want to see what happens after the price went below 0.01.

i think you just have to observe sell orders => rising.

0,0095 to 0,0083 will be achieved until 10'th of october  

Dam i should have sold above 0.012 for a small profit, but i dont want to sell cheap. Now almost my entire profit is gone again. I guess a lot of people want to get out of xmr now, hence the low price.

What the hell are you talking about?! Just stay calm, hold your XMR and have a cup of tea  

nicht nett von dir (not nice from you)

Well just some hours before some ppl. assumed XMR to be at 0.03 or above..saying also like you i'm wrong cause I objected it...where are we now..ya lower than before...so blabla talk sry, its obvious that you went long and its not working good. Otherwise explain why you told us over and over again that xmr is below 0.009 and now suggest to newbies to hold.

[elrippo]

Time in the market is much more profitable that timing the market as long as the asset you're investing into is fundamentally sound.

Time in the market = buy and hold.

Timing the market = day trading.

Don't try day trading.

Imagine all of the people that bought into Bitcoin at it's first peak at $32 and then it crashed to below $5.

If they had held today they would have a 20X increase, but that would require time in the market, not timing the market.

I would advise against putting 100% of your portfolio into anything, even Bitcoin or property.

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

This is why i will not buy more now after the increase, i will instead look after other coins to invest in with my few money i have left to invest. As for short term trading i did get a lot more xmr for my money by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.

In general you are correct about daytrading, especially when you factor in trading fees.

Personally i would wait until 18´th to 22´cnd Ocotber. Probably we will hit the 0,007xxx by then 

Too much people are waiting to buy at 0.01 or below, that's why I think it won't happen.

It defenitely will happen if you believe in fibonacci --> correction to the norm  

it will happen. or i hope that i will happen. then i want to see what happens after the price went below 0.01.

i think you just have to observe sell orders => rising.

0,0095 to 0,0083 will be achieved until 10'th of october 

nicht nett von dir

Why so, we hit sub 0,010 until 10'th of october or didn't we?

[TheFuzzStone]

Great news for Monero! My @Apple contact called to say @monerocurrency #XMRofficially approved for @AppStore.
— Anthony Di Iorio (@diiorioanthony) October 11, 2016

[adolf512]

Selling when the price is high has worked out much better for me than holding so far, it might be a good idea to hold during despair but in general i think it is much better to sell for profit when you can(even if it is only 10%). Now the price is increasing again, but i guess i will do the same mistake again(not selling when the price is above 0.012).

[elrippo]

Consider that the best way to make money is to avoid scam coins and hold a personal fund that is an amalgamation of various coins that show promise.

by selling at 0.0135 and rebuying below 0.0115) but now i will simply hold.
 

Personally i would wait until 18´th to 22´cnd Ocotber. Probably we will hit the 0,007xxx by then  

Too much people are waiting to buy at 0.01 or below, that's why I think it won't happen.

believe in fibonacci

i want to see what happens after the price went below 0.01.

0,0095 to 0,0083 will be achieved until 10'th of october  

Dam i should have sold above 0.012 for a small profit

hold your XMR and have a cup of tea  

nicht nett von dir (not nice from you)

Well just some hours before some ppl. assumed

its obvious that you went long and its not working good. Otherwise explain why you told us over and over again that xmr is below 0.009 and now suggest to newbies to hold.

Well at the end of the day, if you are willing to observe you could imagine a rebuy to ~90% of the last ATH until the next 3-4 weeks --> if you go long --> 

If this fails for some reason, which is likely to happen as the first suggestion, you could buy more at lower levels (fib 23,6%) and then get on the next climb.

If you go long, as the last rally, you are more likely to gain as if you would do the opposite and try burn your fingers with day trading 

[f00bar]

The last up leg, i honestly do not know if you noticed, ran without an official GUI for the wallet daemon, so you get another big minus for that one.

[...]

Either the tech is good, that's my prio, or i do not use it. DNM customers and vendoors accept XMR without any shiny GUI, why is that so.....

Having no GUI is just the proof of success: Most unsuccessful shitcoins have a GUI, but Monero has no GUI (yet) and IS successful. And note that there was a lot of progress last weeks in the GUI repo. I would not sell. 

[elrippo]

Selling when the price is high has worked out much better for me than holding so far, it might be a good idea to hold during despair but in general i think it is much better to sell for profit when you can(even if it is only 10%). Now the price is increasing again, but i guess i will do the same mistake again(not selling when the price is above 0.012).

If you take the risk that you "just" sold with 10% profit, why not.

[elrippo]

The last up leg, i honestly do not know if you noticed, ran without an official GUI for the wallet daemon, so you get another big minus for that one.

[...]

Either the tech is good, that's my prio, or i do not use it. DNM customers and vendoors accept XMR without any shiny GUI, why is that so.....

Having no GUI is just the proof of success: Most unsuccessful shitcoins have a GUI, but Monero has no GUI (yet) and IS successful. And note that there was a lot of progress last weeks in the GUI repo. I would not sell. 

+1 My words (this time it really is so  )

[Febo]

However you turn it, GUI is here. So for me when GUI arrive will be no news. This with Jaxx is 10 times better. I was not sure it will happen at all. But i guess was misleaded.

[adolf512]

For some reason i almost had a mental breakdown during the last drop(when i could no longer sell at profit) but i concluded from the chart that the price will continue up and just walked away from the computer. I do think holding is the best strategy now(but it wasn't previously when people didn't expect a drop).

I try to figure out what will happen with xmr but it's not clear for me at all how the price will change, i have one vision of it falling well below 0.01 and another vision of a huge price increase. I guess i have to just baghold and buy even more if the price falls a lot.

edit: the price did went up, glad i sticked to my strategy to hold.

[Hueristic]

Volume is so worse even with that positve news. I also sold my little 1500 xmr... at least with 7%... thanks for all supporters and realists here. Thank also to the devs who make this coin possible. I guess I'm out for now, to hot to lose money with that coin. I think, as already some ppl said, without a nice GUI, this coin will always have rocks on his path what makes it falling to his face.

Yesterdays shakeout was high volume. I rode the wave and made 10% on my dust. It was great fun to watch. Now I'll wait for another dip to buy again it's not hard to ride the sideways movements it's predicting when the huge dump or pump is gonna happen and you don't want to be on the wrong side of those!

.011 is a good place to put buys right now IMO.

[ArticMine]

There are at least two very valid reasons why diverting a portion of the block rewards to development or some other project such as marketing is not a good idea at all.

1) Regulatory compliance.

This is the elephant in the room in crypto currency and Monero is one of very few crypto currencies that has avoided some very serious regulatory compliance risks. The critical aspect of this is the guidance that was issued by FinCEN in March of 2013. https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/FIN-2013-G001.pdf. In order for a crypto currency to be compliant while at the same time avoiding the requirement of registration as a Money Services Business, and consequential AML/KNC requirements, the crypto currency must qualify as a "De Centralized Virtual Currency" under the guidance. This means that the block rewards have to go in their entirety to the miners and cannot be diverted for other purposes such as to fund development or marketing. If the block rewards are diverted in such a manner then those who are administering the diverted block rewards would be very likely be considered to be "administrators" or "exchangers" under the guidance, be required to register as MSBs and be subject to AML/KNC reporting requirements among other requirements. Ripple has already been subject to regulatory enforcement over this very issue. While I am not aware, at this time, of any regulatory action over this against Dash, the risk in that case likely remains very high. While this is specific to the United States, the reality is that the United States is at least for the time being, the world leader in financial regulation in particular because of the reserve currency status of the United States dollar.

In summary one needs to keep one's hands out of the till, block rewards, in order to keep the regulator away.

If this is true, then ZCash is going to face real problems as an US-company, or better said their miners.

It is not just Z.Cash. There are many crypto - currencies that have this serious regulatory risk. Please read the guidance carefully rather than simply take my word for it. The question to ask when reading the guidance is: Does a particular crypto currency qualify as a "De Centralized Virtual Currency" under the guidance?

[OrangeP]

There are at least two very valid reasons why diverting a portion of the block rewards to development or some other project such as marketing is not a good idea at all.

1) Regulatory compliance.

In summary one needs to keep one's hands out of the till, block rewards, in order to keep the regulator away.

If this is true, then ZCash is going to face real problems as an US-company, or better said their miners.

It is not just Z.Cash. There are many crypto - currencies that have this serious regulatory risk. Please read the guidance carefully rather than simply take my word for it. The question to ask when reading the guidance is: Does a particular crypto currency qualify as a "De Centralized Virtual Currency" under the guidance?

I wouldn't care too much about getting deep into these law discussions. If regulators (aka the lobby) really want to bring down/illegalize a crypto currency for whatever reason, they will do it regardless of anything. At least that's the way how Europe works, where established law is getting pooped on by governments all the time.

This overall is an argument for currencies that work without a company behind it. Developers should also rather not be US citizen. 

[el testosteron]

loved the bear trap from 019 to 016 and back to 019. Fingers crossed

[Hueristic]

.011 is a good place to put buys right now IMO.

Nice call, Thank you.