[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

...

On a side note who's a margin expert here? PM me please.

the first rule:

to make a small fortune margin trading,
 start with a large one.

Lol

[Nivir]

Monero is and will always be greater than zcrash. I also anticipated the coming of zcrash. Someone posted a link about zec funders that I can't quote. I was thinking of why will people use a coin funded by agencies or groups like that if cryptocurrency is for anonymity?

[estenity]

Monero is and will always be greater than zcrash. I also anticipated the coming of zcrash. Someone posted a link about zec funders that I can't quote. I was thinking of why will people use a coin funded by agencies or groups like that if cryptocurrency is for anonymity?

BTC dominance 83.8 % : has not been so high for a long period !!

[kurious]

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Are we just waiting...?

My thoughts?: 

I have said here and elsewhere that I can't see a serious rise for a while - probably not even until Spring.

But does anyone want to polish their crystal ball and take a guess at where the bottom is or even when stability will come...  And will we hold value in USD terms even if BTC does moon...?

This is Monero Speculation, right? 

[freebutcaged]

Hello guys, can we see Monero to compete with Zcash anytime soon? because I like Monero more than zec and I want it to be successful.

What stops people to use Monero if it's the same as zec?

[Globb0]

And I held throughout, sadly could have recovered back to my number of coins.

[kurious]

Hello guys, can we see Monero to compete with Zcash anytime soon? because I like Monero more than zec and I want it to be successful.

What stops people to use Monero if it's the same as zec?

Nothing stops it, it's just zcash has a huge hype and serious marketing behind it from the people that will benefit.

It's still way above it's real value when you realise how many coins will appear over time.

Monero is decentralised, open source and not backed by vested interests as zcash is, plus it's proven tech and has a huge awareness and respect in cryptoland.

The cream will rise and good money will drive out bad - zcash will be out there, but Monero will too.  The interest it generates in 'private money' can only (in the end) prove positive for Monero.  Will Monero compete? It already does - zcash is new and the hyped price is totally unrealistic.

Wait and see....

[wpalczynski]

I think the Monero price will be reversely correlated to the Bitcoin price.  MasterLuc, whos predictions have been very accurate in the past and are based on the EW (Elliot Wave) principles back in August called a top for Bitcoin where we are now and predicted a bleed off to about 580 in early January before resuming an upward trajectory.  He even called the Bitcoin bottom which resulted from the Bitfinex hack well in advance when everyone was euphoric and calling for Moon.  If he is once again correct we should see a good rise in price until Bitcoin takes another moonshot so that could have been a short to mid term bottom for Monero.  Strong capitulation to 0.0058 and another higher double bottom yesterday at 0.006 with significant volume.  If his prediction does not come to fruition and Bitcoin resumes the uptrend shortly we might have a bottom in the 0.005s, since everyone is expecting 0.004s it likely wont happen.

Just my two cents.

Here is his prediction for reference.

[wpalczynski]

In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

[rpietila]

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Monero is in a secular uptrend, same as Bitcoin.

Both experience highs and lows - stellar rises of 1000%+, and grinding downtrends of up to 2 years in length.

Unless anyone decides otherwise, Monero is going to new lows.
- As for pricing, 0.004 BTC/XMR seems somewhat good target (just don't get religious on it if you are a lucky long term holder who is temporarily out).
- As for timing, Monero has an annual cycle and after a few months it's again the peak time.

[sparky999]

Anyone care to speculate on price and this bear market...?

Risto flipped to 'maybe 0.004', Aminorex is sadly absent.  We have seen bottoms below where I expected (I can't be alone in that), so it's tough for all of us who know Monero is sound and will rise again - but is all speculation dead while BTC looks this bullish?

Are we just waiting...?

My thoughts?: 

I have said here and elsewhere that I can't see a serious rise for a while - probably not even until Spring.

But does anyone want to polish their crystal ball and take a guess at where the bottom is or even when stability will come...  And will we hold value in USD terms even if BTC does moon...?

This is Monero Speculation, right? 

Anyone who thinks this is going anywhere right now other than to the 0.004x range is blind, stupid or both.

[starmman]

I think the Monero price will be reversely correlated to the Bitcoin price.  MasterLuc, whos predictions have been very accurate in the past and are based on the EW (Elliot Wave) principles back in August called a top for Bitcoin where we are now and predicted a bleed off to about 580 in early January before resuming an upward trajectory.  He even called the Bitcoin bottom which resulted from the Bitfinex hack well in advance when everyone was euphoric and calling for Moon.  If he is once again correct we should see a good rise in price until Bitcoin takes another moonshot so that could have been a short to mid term bottom for Monero.  Strong capitulation to 0.0058 and another higher double bottom yesterday at 0.006 with significant volume.  If his prediction does not come to fruition and Bitcoin resumes the uptrend shortly we might have a bottom in the 0.005s, since everyone is expecting 0.004s it likely wont happen.

Just my two cents.

Here is his prediction for reference.

I have my larger buy orders targeted in the 0.004 and 0.005 ranges. Will be interesting to see where the price movements take us over the next few weeks - As with all alts the BTC price will be the main driver.

[nanobrain]

^^^^ last four posts posts above that one

@kurious, well you asked..lol

[bobabouey2]

In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

Great article.  I had not heard of this issue:

Zooko proposed recently to periodically force everyone to reveal their balance as a solution for the hidden inflation problem. At a certain block height all “anonymous” coins would become invalid and an observer would be able to sum up all “transparent” coins. If the total amount is equal to or less than the emission should actually be, the  system can be considered “sound” until that point in time.

 

The proposal is discussed by Zooko here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6RLjcGVUnw&feature=youtu.be&t=29m00s

Zooko notes that the "privacy leak" should be "minimal", and users can split up their balances to mitigate that.  He then also notes this would not impose a burden on users, as it would be managed by wallets, although that would mean cold storage wouldn't work..

Cold storage in my opinion is one of the greatest things about crypto!

[wpalczynski]

In terms of Zcash here is a great write up on just some of its problems.  The more people dig into it the more serious flaws they find, additional articles and research will be published shortly.

http://weuse.cash/

Great article.  I had not heard of this issue:

Zooko proposed recently to periodically force everyone to reveal their balance as a solution for the hidden inflation problem. At a certain block height all “anonymous” coins would become invalid and an observer would be able to sum up all “transparent” coins. If the total amount is equal to or less than the emission should actually be, the  system can be considered “sound” until that point in time.

 

The proposal is discussed by Zooko here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6RLjcGVUnw&feature=youtu.be&t=29m00s

Zooko notes that the "privacy leak" should be "minimal", and users can split up their balances to mitigate that.  He then also notes this would not impose a burden on users, as it would be managed by wallets, although that would mean cold storage wouldn't work..

Cold storage in my opinion is one of the greatest things about crypto!

Its a totally absurd idea.  While it might not bother people just buying zcrash to buy things on DM it totally prevents it from being used as a means to store wealth privately.

The trusted setup is a monumental flaw, the collusion of the founders can result in creation of an unlimited number of coins which would be totally undetectable unless the above mentioned reconciliation takes place at a set frequency.

[bobabouey2]

Its a totally absurd idea.  While it might not bother people just buying zcrash to buy things on DM it totally prevents it from being used as a means to store wealth privately.

DNM users have one very good reason to like cold storage.  Best way of preserving illegally obtained assets while in jail!

[kurious]

^^^^ last four posts posts above that one

@kurious, well you asked..lol

@nanobrain: Yep, I know... but at least it drew a few firm speculative comments (and a decent graph) out and interrupted the TC bashing stuff 

[kurious]

I think the Monero price will be reversely correlated to the Bitcoin price.  MasterLuc, whos predictions have been very accurate in the past and are based on the EW (Elliot Wave) principles back in August called a top for Bitcoin where we are now and predicted a bleed off to about 580 in early January before resuming an upward trajectory.  He even called the Bitcoin bottom which resulted from the Bitfinex hack well in advance when everyone was euphoric and calling for Moon.  If he is once again correct we should see a good rise in price until Bitcoin takes another moonshot so that could have been a short to mid term bottom for Monero.  Strong capitulation to 0.0058 and another higher double bottom yesterday at 0.006 with significant volume.  If his prediction does not come to fruition and Bitcoin resumes the uptrend shortly we might have a bottom in the 0.005s, since everyone is expecting 0.004s it likely wont happen.

Just my two cents.

Here is his prediction for reference.

Respect for a decent post, Sir.

Realistically BTC and our traditional inverse correlation when it moves, is the main thing to weather on through.  But Risto is right too - there looks to be an annual cycle. 

An August high, December lows and a Feb breakout seem not too stupid to expect if the past is any sort of indicator.  Seems so far it might be.

Risto's 'where will we be on Dec 31st' thread at the time of the ATH had me looking pessimistic at 0.0075 (in the lower 10% of predictions) but I will now not be surprised to see us do as your post says.

If anything it looks a positively optimistic, given where we look like we are right now - I hope it plays out as you suggest.

[wpalczynski]

Thanks.

[24Kilo]

Moved to Dev-team IRC... thanks!