[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aerbax]

Today's dev meeting highlights:

https://hellomonero.com/article/monero-dev-meeting-note-highlights-2016-11-13

Apologies for the late post, as I was out with the family for a day trip. 

[ArticMine]

...

I'm more and more convinced this is not a genuine reversal but the result of a conflagration of external events (BTC weakening, funds returning from ZEC etc) that are helping market manipulators execute a long term bull trap.  It reminds me of the BTC "rally" to 600 in April 2014.  Technically I don't think we reached capitulation and need to retest a low on high volume.

I would take a look at the volume on October 28, 2016 when the 0.0058 low was reached of over 2,000,000 XMR. The combined total volume of October, 31, 2016, November 1, 2016 and November 2, 2016 for the retest was comparable to October 28, 2016. So this would support an Adam and Eve bottom.

[bobabouey2]

Polo buy side up to 4000 BTC and sell side is sub 300K XMR....

Unusual.  It looks bullish, but volume dropping and it doesn't look like a solid breakout. Yet.

TA freaks welcome to comment, of course.  I am wondering what it means.

Less weak hands.

Less  Fewer weak hands.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKU4-ZhHl8

[nanobrain]

...

I'm more and more convinced this is not a genuine reversal but the result of a conflagration of external events (BTC weakening, funds returning from ZEC etc) that are helping market manipulators execute a long term bull trap.  It reminds me of the BTC "rally" to 600 in April 2014.  Technically I don't think we reached capitulation and need to retest a low on high volume.

I would take a look at the volume on October 28, 2016 when the 0.0058 low was reached of over 2,000,000 XMR. The combined total volume of October, 31, 2016, November 1, 2016 and November 2, 2016 for the retest was comparable to October 28, 2016. So this would support an Adam and Eve bottom.

Interesting but there is an element of manipulating the data to make it fit your hypothesis ie one day's volume equals the sum of three days' volume.  That's a slippery slope

As I posted a wee while ago, I also think we are/were massively oversold, so there's lots of conflicting signals.  I'd still trade cautiously at this point.

[kurious]

Polo buy side up to 4000 BTC and sell side is sub 300K XMR....

Unusual.  It looks bullish, but volume dropping and it doesn't look like a solid breakout. Yet.

TA freaks welcome to comment, of course.  I am wondering what it means.

Less weak hands.

Less  Fewer weak hands.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKU4-ZhHl8

Ha! Better all watch our grammar. 

[kurious]

...

I'm more and more convinced this is not a genuine reversal but the result of a conflagration of external events (BTC weakening, funds returning from ZEC etc) that are helping market manipulators execute a long term bull trap.  It reminds me of the BTC "rally" to 600 in April 2014.  Technically I don't think we reached capitulation and need to retest a low on high volume.

I would take a look at the volume on October 28, 2016 when the 0.0058 low was reached of over 2,000,000 XMR. The combined total volume of October, 31, 2016, November 1, 2016 and November 2, 2016 for the retest was comparable to October 28, 2016. So this would support an Adam and Eve bottom.

Interesting but there is an element of manipulating the data to make it fit your hypothesis ie one day's volume equals the sum of three days' volume.  That's a slippery slope

As I posted a wee while ago, I also think we are/were massively oversold, so there's lots of conflicting signals.  I'd still trade cautiously at this point.

Still over 4K BTC on the buy side and fewer on sale.  Usually a swing in these ratios like this is bullish for price - but I do feel cautious as the mood here does seem to be the bear market is not over and (of course) BTC could still blow the doors off. 

Topping the volume charts feels very positive, it bodes well, but December lows and spring breakouts towards summer peaks has been Monero's way.  BTC not mooning and XMR staying solidly over 0.01 (with volume) for a few weeks would be great as it would look like a signal the bear market is done.

Conversely if volume drops and the buy side does too, bearwhales will have a chance to hammer down again.

Whatever happens, I take heart that money is flowing back and forth between XMR and BTC way more than other coins - which implies XMR is maintaining a healthy respect in the market.

[CryptoPH]

...

I'm more and more convinced this is not a genuine reversal but the result of a conflagration of external events (BTC weakening, funds returning from ZEC etc) that are helping market manipulators execute a long term bull trap.  It reminds me of the BTC "rally" to 600 in April 2014.  Technically I don't think we reached capitulation and need to retest a low on high volume.

I would take a look at the volume on October 28, 2016 when the 0.0058 low was reached of over 2,000,000 XMR. The combined total volume of October, 31, 2016, November 1, 2016 and November 2, 2016 for the retest was comparable to October 28, 2016. So this would support an Adam and Eve bottom.

Interesting but there is an element of manipulating the data to make it fit your hypothesis ie one day's volume equals the sum of three days' volume.  That's a slippery slope

As I posted a wee while ago, I also think we are/were massively oversold, so there's lots of conflicting signals.  I'd still trade cautiously at this point.

Still over 4K BTC on the buy side and fewer on sale.  Usually a swing in these ratios like this is bullish for price - but I do feel cautious as the mood here does seem to be the bear market is not over and (of course) BTC could still blow the doors off. 

Topping the volume charts feels very positive, it bodes well, but December lows and spring breakouts towards summer peaks has been Monero's way.  BTC not mooning and XMR staying solidly over 0.01 (with volume) for a few weeks would be great as it would look like a signal the bear market is done.

Conversely if volume drops and the buy side does too, bearwhales will have a chance to hammer down again.

Whatever happens, I take heart that money is flowing back and forth between XMR and BTC way more than other coins - which implies XMR is maintaining a healthy respect in the market.

I couldn't agree more

[kurious]

In fact at a quick glance, XMR looks like it might be doing more volume in BTC than the rest of the Polo market coins put together.

[Febo]

...

I'm more and more convinced this is not a genuine reversal but the result of a conflagration of external events (BTC weakening, funds returning from ZEC etc) that are helping market manipulators execute a long term bull trap.  It reminds me of the BTC "rally" to 600 in April 2014.  Technically I don't think we reached capitulation and need to retest a low on high volume.

I would take a look at the volume on October 28, 2016 when the 0.0058 low was reached of over 2,000,000 XMR. The combined total volume of October, 31, 2016, November 1, 2016 and November 2, 2016 for the retest was comparable to October 28, 2016. So this would support an Adam and Eve bottom.

Huge reason of Monero price fall in October was because of speculation of ZCash launch. Monero went that low on 28th October simply because of ZCash launch. 3 days latter when people realize there will be no bread from ZCach flour, Monero started going back to its normal range.

Where is that?


No matter what you think but, ZCash was like a dark demon over Monero pressing it down. Same as was in spring anticipation what will happen at Bitcoin halving.  When it actual happen it turned just into a smoke and fly away.

[kurious]

Huge reason of Monero price fall in October was because of speculation of ZCash launch. Monero went that low on 28th October simply because of ZCash launch. 3 days latter when people realize there will be no bread from ZCach flour, Monero started going back to its normal range.
....

Yep. zcash came a time when XMR had been in freefall, onlookers thought it would easily drop further and the NKOTB could be the last straw to burst the 'bubble'.

But it was a straw man - the laughable launch of zcrash just made the reality of XMR more credible.

XMR: Honey Badger II

[TrueCryptonaire]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

[kurious]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

Steady on, TC...

Anything is possible, but let's be sure we're out of the bear market first?   Breaking 0.012 and staying over it as a level needs to happen.  Then we can look at getting to $10 - but I don't think we will get anywhere close to even the ATH level until Spring (unless the GUI is out very soon, BTC stays flat or drifts and we are very lucky) let alone $100.

The GUI will encourage more people to buy, suck money off-exchange (leaving less for immediate sale) so a spike then is more likely but a real new climb to above the last ATH needs time and events conspiring for us. 

A steady XMR might prove better for adoption - and we need that base to build from.

So, maybe save your $100 predictions for now, please?

[ArticMine]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

[bobabouey2]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

[TrueCryptonaire]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

Steady on, TC...

Anything is possible, but let's be sure we're out of the bear market first?   Breaking 0.012 and staying over it as a level needs to happen.  Then we can look at getting to $10 - but I don't think we will get anywhere close to even the ATH level until Spring (unless the GUI is out very soon, BTC stays flat or drifts and we are very lucky) let alone $100.

The GUI will encourage more people to buy, suck money off-exchange (leaving less for immediate sale) so a spike then is more likely but a real new climb to above the last ATH needs time and events conspiring for us. 

A steady XMR might prove better for adoption - and we need that base to build from.

So, maybe save your $100 predictions for now, please?

That's the very reason why I concluded my message with statement not to go all in XMR now when the price is still low.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

Yes it is vital for the success of Monero to go beyond 1 billion market cap.
I consider even the current marketcap of bitcoin still a failure if that's the best case scenario Monero can reach. 10 billion is peanuts when we are talking about a currency. There are plenty of single companies that have 10 billion or higher market cap so the currency should be minimum a few orders of magnitude higher. The beauty lies in the fact that the big rises are not steady climbing but strong and sharp rises that ends with the dump that is still higher than the previous lows. The bubbles create a sort of hysteresis thanks to the adaption that are taking place when the marketing machine creates new members to the community.

[iCEBREAKER]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Wow, that hot mess of crypto voodoo explains the Z-Crash.  What's next, animal sacrifice and spirit cooking?   

Peter Wuille Fact:

Trusted third parties are security holes, unless the third party is Peter Wuille.

[bobabouey2]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Wow, that hot mess of crypto voodoo explains the Z-Crash.  What's next, animal sacrifice and spirit cooking?  

Peter Wuille Fact:

Trusted third parties are security holes, unless the third party is Peter Wuille.

His post appears more positive than I expected, but I think there is some more subtle trolling going on.  

The over-all tale is an incredible "Cyberpunk Desert Bus" epic  where he notably one-ups the Zcash insiders in his approach to op-sec. (With a nice little jab against Zooko in Section 2 for taking weeks to bother messaging him over a secure channel with a pgp key.)

Two weeks later on Oct 14th Zooko contacted me again via Signal, saying he “Still [hadn’t] gotten around PGP-signing my Signal fingerprint” and asking if I could be a part of either the Oct 15-16th ceremony, or Oct 22-23rd ceremony. I ignored the message until later that day Zooko finally sent me a PGP-signed email confirming the Signal safety numbers (and for that matter, his phone number!)

But in terms of bigger picture, he notes:

Nothing you will read below changes the fact that you’re trusting me and five other participants not to collude. Full stop. End of story. It is IMPOSSIBLE for myself and the other participants to prove to a third party that we did not collude to keep the secret key. If you do not believe you can trust me, you should stop reading now.

And:

More importantly, verifying Zcash private transactions is orders of magnitude slower than verifying Bitcoin transactions: tens of milliseconds compared to a few microseconds. This is so slow that if Zcash users used private transactions frequently, even without attacks mining Zcash could become unprofitable for all but the largest mining pools even due to slow block propagation effects; if small miners were not forced out of business the Zcash network could even have difficulty maintaining consensus.

In my opinion the Zcash team has been irresponsible, maybe even dishonest, in their choice of block interval and size parameters.

And:

As of writing, I’m not aware of any efforts to independently audit the deterministic build process used to create the compute node DVDs that every participant in the trusted setup used. This means there’s a massive single point of failure in the whole process that completely undermines the value of the multi-party computation.

Until the software and deterministic builds are audited, the entire ceremony is a bunch of crypto hocus pocus.

All emphasis original.

[bbc.reporter]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

Yes it is vital for the success of Monero to go beyond 1 billion market cap.
I consider even the current marketcap of bitcoin still a failure if that's the best case scenario Monero can reach. 10 billion is peanuts when we are talking about a currency. There are plenty of single companies that have 10 billion or higher market cap so the currency should be minimum a few orders of magnitude higher.

Yes it would be peanuts for any currency only if there is a real economy supporting it. We have seen so far that Monero has not yet reached that point where it could be considered that it has a real economy behind it like bitcoin has. In your mind it may be easy to gain and naturally develop this economy but in reality it is not. So a $10 billion market cap may not be that easy at all. If it was, another cryptocoin would have reached it after bitcoin.

[bobabouey2]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Wow, that hot mess of crypto voodoo explains the Z-Crash.  What's next, animal sacrifice and spirit cooking?   

Peter Wuille Fact:

Trusted third parties are security holes, unless the third party is Peter Wuille.

PS - Missed the spirit cooking reference on first read!