[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ozkraut]

[/quote]

I wholeheartedly agree that the GUI will encourage more (ok, possibly minor) buyers into XMR.  It's obviously a good investment - but 'no wallet'?  Duh!

People saying 'CLI is easy' are myopic veterans, insiders; the masses want 'point and click' and in this day an age, if it ain't easy - it's enough to steer users away.  After all, there are plenty of other coins. All with wallets.

A GUI will make us more accessible to a wider user base - anyone with a problem with seeing that is at best misguided, at worst: foolish.
[/quote]

As much as I am just fine with the CLI I fully agree. We need an appliance like simplicity for interaction with the network to allow all comers to feel comfortable. Intuitive and simple. Which means a GUI. Actually it really means a Windows GUI. Anybody using more elusive OS's is likely technical enough to not worry about CLI. And maybe its mobile wallets eg android/ios which are needed most, certainly after Windows. The kids these days live on their phones/apps.

[KeyJockey]

Actually it really means a Windows GUI....

And Mac too: clearly Apple people are far and away more needful of a simple, clean, point & click interface.

Anyone using a Mac who's able to deal with Terminal is clearly on OS X *because* it's UNIX at heart, but this is NOT most Apple people.

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

[kurious]

Actually it really means a Windows GUI....

And Mac too: clearly Apple people are far and away more needful of a simple, clean, point & click interface.

Anyone using a Mac who's able to deal with Terminal is clearly on OS X *because* it's UNIX at heart, but this is NOT most Apple people.

Yep!  I am on Mac and found the CLI totally foreign to my natural usage of a computer.

But for patient help and advice here I'd never have managed to work out how to cold store my XMR.   I can't see OSX being left out, though - the GUI for Monero looks to be aiming to be all things to all men.  And women, ofc

[kurious]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome. 

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

[volyova]

11   Dashcoin   £7,608,383   £0.452727   16,805,687 DSH   £5,611   13219.00%

OMG, are you guys pumping DashCoin?? You sneaky fucks... and what a totally brilliant idea! This is trolling on a whole new level haha...artful. It should certainly confuse any newcomers to crypto! LOL you are all evil.

[zoose]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

[kurious]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like someone has set his straightedge at the price of 0.0107... It is like a straight line...

[cryptimus prime]

On another note: Look what I've found today....


https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=583449.msg17136184#msg17136184


lets speculate on that one....

Should we know him?

[iCEBREAKER]

http://qz.com/861721/bitcoin-prices-are-at-a-2016-high-despite-silicon-valley-having-soured-on-the-currency/

Fat protocols

The rule of thumb when it comes to fat protocol investing is this: “The market cap of the protocol always grows faster than the combined value of the applications built on top,”

I do agree the fat protocol model is applicable at the early stages of the protocol's development and adoption as is the case at this stage with Monero. I am not so sure it is applicable to a more mature coin such as Bitcoin. It's application to Bitcoin may be more an indication of the anticipation of Bitcoin protocol moving away from transactions on the blockchain to transactions on secondary layers such as the Lightning Network. This is fueled to a large degree by the fixed blocksize limit in the Bitcoin protocol. The following quote from the legal agreement of Circle may be indicative of this shift. https://www.circle.com/en/legal/intl-user-agreement

You can use your Circle account to buy bitcoin for sale on other registered platforms and exchanges or to sell bitcoin acquired from other registered platforms and exchanges. You cannot use your Circle account to (i) buy bitcoin for sale to individuals through peer-to-peer brokerage services or unregistered exchanges (such as LocalBitcoins, Craigslist, eBay or similar websites), (ii) sell bitcoin that you have acquired directly from individuals through peer-to-peer brokerage services or unregistered exchanges (such as LocalBitcoins, Craigslist, eBay or similar websites), or (iii) buy or sell bitcoin on behalf of anyone else. Such activities might be in violation of applicable law - so we can’t allow it.

The difference between the dream and the reality in Bitcoin is becoming more apparent each day.

If your "dream" was recording for eternity in the Holy Mother of All Blockchains every Frappuchino, Dorito, and bus ticket purchase, sorry for your loss.

LOL Circle.  They rage quit just like Mike Hearn, who is/was one of their board advisers.

I guess Hearn advised Circle to maximize 1MB vs XT butthurt, get triggered, blame GMAX, and crawl off into a safe space to die bitter and alone.   

How much code has Circle contributed?  Oh that's right, none at all.  Circle may moan all they like about what their hapless customers are not allowed to do, but talking about Bitcoin (which is permissionless) did not make them part of it.

Why aren't you "sure" Bitcoin is a fat protocol?  It's very clear from the definition that it qualifies (Bitcoin market cap > sum of apps built on top), albeit not as much as Monero since we only have minimal apps built on top.

Do you have a better explanation that accounts for the observable fact heavily funded bitcoin companies failed to produce the kinds of spectacular results Silicon Valley expects, even as the value of bitcoin itself continues to climb?  Speculating about motivations and fretting about EVIL BLOCKSTREAMCORE doesn't count; your personal status as disgruntled isn't an argument that leads to a falsifiable (ie useful) hypothesis.

You may believe building out layers >1 will hollow out Bitcoin's value and leave it a gutted shell, but most of us call that process "scaling" and think it will add tremendously to the protocol's usefulness.  That's why the price is in a secular bull market and shows no signs of turning bearish.

BTW payment channels such as Lightning are not "secondary layers."  Sidechains are secondary layers; LN style write caches are more accurately conceived of as Layer 1.5.  Regardless of nomenclature and semantics, additional higher layers become part of (ie are not distinct from nor compete with) the Bitcoin protocol, which gets fatter as its utility expands.  IOW, the Bitcoin protocol (Layer 1 + extensions) is Bitcoin's killer app.

If you could stop fixating on BTC's fixed blocksize limit and dragging it into every topic just so you can get in a bit of axe-grinding, that would be great.  You're starting to remind me of Daniel Hopsicker, who does outstanding investigative reporting yet insists on tying everything back the JFK assassination.   

[kurious]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

The trade would inevitably go elsewhere.  A coin doesn't die when its main exchange disappears.

It would reflect on the alts market, including BTC and all alts - as all would have been affected.   Scandalous, bad for the alts market, bad for XMR - yes initially, but people would still want to buy and sell.

The main risk is that Polo is being used by many people with XMR as a wallet, since there is not GUI.  So more Monero would be 'lost' and therefore the XMR market would be hit. 

If it was a hack - there would be a fear of any stolen coins being dumped - which would depress price. If it was a crash that locked up or lost coins - it would reduce supply and so (in theory) actually increase the price of the remaining available coins.

Whatever happened the market for XMR would still exist - but move to a new location, or new locations.

[volyova]

Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....

Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO.

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

The trade would inevitably go elsewhere.  A coin doesn't die when its main exchange disappears.

It would reflect on the alts market, including BTC and all alts - as all would have been affected.   Scandalous, bad for the alts market, bad for XMR - yes initially, but people would still want to buy and sell.

The main risk is that Polo is being used by many people with XMR as a wallet, since there is not GUI.  So more Monero would be 'lost' and therefore the XMR market would be hit. 

If it was a hack - there would be a fear of any stolen coins being dumped - which would depress price. If it was a crash that locked up or lost coins - it would reduce supply and so (in theory) actually increase the price of the remaining available coins.

Whatever happened the market for XMR would still exist - but move to a new location, or new locations.

Thank-you, very rational. Anyway, hopefully being added to Bitfinex might negate this "single point-of-failure" (potential) problem? What do you think? And do you know when are they adding it? Thanks, V.

[kurious]

Thank-you, very rational. Anyway, hopefully being added to Bitfinex might negate this "single point-of-failure" (potential) problem? What do you think? And do you know when are they adding it? Thanks, V.

They already added it, not great volume so far, but they aren't doing margin trading yet.

Early days - but yes, in the event of Polo struggling Bitfinex could cope....

[rpietila]

I think the situation is good.

[canth]

I think the situation is good.

Indeed - hopefully it won't take a Gox-style event for it to happen, but I could definitely see Bitfinex picking up volume over the coming months. The near-term future for XMR looks very strong:

- RingCT
- GUI
- Bitfinex additional liquidity & decentralization (and wallet storage for the risk-takers)

Do we have you back in the XMR game, Risto?

[fiscorcle]

I think the situation is good.

Indeed - hopefully it won't take a Gox-style event for it to happen, but I could definitely see Bitfinex picking up volume over the coming months. The near-term future for XMR looks very strong:

- RingCT
- GUI
- Bitfinex additional liquidity & decentralization (and wallet storage for the risk-takers)

Do we have you back in the XMR game, Risto?

Heh I'd actually argue the big exchanges are actually the weak link, given everything that's happened with them

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think the situation is good.

Indeed - hopefully it won't take a Gox-style event for it to happen, but I could definitely see Bitfinex picking up volume over the coming months. The near-term future for XMR looks very strong:

- RingCT
- GUI
- Bitfinex additional liquidity & decentralization (and wallet storage for the risk-takers)

Do we have you back in the XMR game, Risto?

I speculate he bought in when he tricked some people to sell their coins sub 0.01 by giving predictions of Monero hitting the bottom of 0.004 which never happened obviously.