[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

For all of you lending out thousands of Monero especially at really low rates... just think about it for a moment. Right now we have about 190,000 XMR available to short and a good share of them are available at VERY low rates. While Dash on the other hand has only about 17,000 and yes I know some are currently shorting Dash but, even when their price was much lower the numbers were still about 8 or 9 to 1.  That makes it extremely easy for anyone with some btc to short Monero at a very low cost and in big numbers and drive that price down. 

The MasterNode scheme does one thing effectively and that is remove huge numbers of coins from the market for trading AND for lending, thus raising the cost to short and making it easier to keep a pump going to these really extreme levels.

Please re-examine your lending habits, if we all quit squabbling over the scraps maybe Monero would make some headway as far as price goes.

And yes that include you TC!

Usually during the pump it has been easy to lend Moneros. Now it appears that there is no takers for short positions... 
I guess that can be considered bullish - they just need a trigger to flood into the extensive long positions in Monero. If that happens, it is possible even reach parity with Dark coin (I hope so).
There are at least two options I am seeing: 1) All the speculators care is Dark coin and they forget shorting Monero 2) Shorting Monero is considered as a terrible move and that the price of Monero is expected to get its pump.

[kurious]

Okay guys... I guess I need to weigh-in here on the whole Dash situation "big picture" given that the damn shitcoin seems to be about to break $100.

Un-frikkn'-believeable but... there it is.

So: am I butt-hurt?  Yep.  Freely admit it.  Fact is that I did HODL 50 Dash from over a year ago until just recently (like last October or November I think) when I decided to dump it and 'consolidate' my crypto portfolio around only "what really mattered".

So, yep I've missed out of this pump even though I should not have, given that I WAS holding *some* Dash just as a "hedge" until very recently and stupidly I sold it off JUST BEFORE this run started.

Back in October-ish the 50 Dash I had was worth about 1 bitcoin and now, today, it'd be at 4 bitcoins.

So that's two doublings 1-to-2-to-4 that I missed out on.  Opportunity cost of 3 BTC.  That would've made it my third-best crypto investment of all time after Monero and MaidSafe overall returns and it would've beaten my overall bitcoin performance (one doubling) by twice.

So, yeah, it sucks and I feel stupid but can't win 'em all I guess... right?  LOL.  Still ButtHurt.

Anyhoo....

The $64,000 Big Question NOW is... what to do about this situation?  Let's look at "reality" as best we can.

Dash is no competition to Monero.  We know that. 

The Monero/Dash fighting is really over IF we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story.

But taking a step backwards it looks to me like Dash isn't really competing on that point any more.  They've ceded that point (mostly) and nowadays they are trying to SELL their shit premine scam coin as being JUST a little BETTER than BITCOIN.  It has faster and cheaper transactions, apparently, even IF it does not have better fungibility or anonymity (which is simply also true for bitcoin).

I thought that this recent DashPump would never get to $100 but NOW here it is and it's come RIGHT ON THE HEELS of the latest, biggest, noisiest and messiest battle between BlockstreamCore and Bitcoin Unlimited (yesterday this node bug crashing shitstorm mess).

SO is it really POSSIBLE that this latest Bitcoin Disaster has driven more real money/value into... aaaaah... can't bear to say it... DASH REAL USE??

Or is ALL this really STILL just the most Epic Mother Of All-Time PUMPS by the Dashhole Insiders, trying to desperately make a Hail-Mary Pass and *buy* some expensive *legitimacy* for their scam coin at the last minute *before* the actual real-reality takes over again and consigns it to the dustbin of history?  Dashholes may actually KNOW that most likely coinbase is going to adopt Monero soon, for example, and when WE hit $50-$100+ on that fact (soon^TM) it may be the end of the road for them.

I'm willing to listen IF any Dashers around here wanna try and convince me using real FACTS/DATA that I've been wrong that it's a scam coin and pump-dump here lately, just on the theory that *maybe* Dash only needs to be a little better in some small way than BITCOIN (not Monero) to justify this crazy price rise.

Really trying hard here NOT to be "emotional" about this kind of investment decision but under the circumstances it's pretty hard LOL

I agree, they aren't trying to compete with Monero anymore and that being a 'little bit better than BTC' is what they are trying to be.

It's not a bad strategy and they seem to have the marketing budget and style reasonably well thought out.

And it cannot fail to be noticed, but it's mainly because of this rise in price. 

However, there is no point in being pissed off about it, as it's a BTC based coin, which we are not. It is technically inferior and essentially centralised and with a corrupt system which allows for exponential marketing spend growth at the same time as an incentive set up to ramp up the price while keeping supply artificially below demand.

Its advocates are talking as though it is already spendable anywhere, but of course this is false.

Its rise cannot continue exponentially, the law of gravity applies.  For now they have come up with the best scam in crypto, though and they won't / can't stop. 

However, it must end in tears and the code of this coin will now be tested.  In every sense.

The higher it goes the further it will fall.

If it does crash as hard as it should, then it will not be good for crypto. 'Bitcoin copy-coin loses hundreds of millions as hyped ponzi scheme collapses' will be a story the press will love.

[Nausicaa]

...
Dash is no competition to Monero.  We know that.  
...

Disagree. It is competition, and strong competition at that. It is not as good, on paper, but nevertheless is winning in the marketplace, for now. As they say in sports, “That’s why they play the games.” The question should be “Why?” Or maybe, “How, and can Monero overcome Dash’s lead?”

The "Dash is a scam" argument doesn't work. Open your eyes. Look at the price.
Fiat money is a scam too. No one cares.

Got it in one. As a "clueless noobie", to quote a relentless troller on the Dash thread, I see that those in the Monero camp have a massive blindspot, about how, despite being less than a pristine and pure coin, Dash is succeeding. On Planet Monero, marketing seems to be a bad word, and user friendliness? Pshaw, too smart to need that!

Come on! If that is what it takes to elevate a "flawed" coin like Dash to greatness, then how amazing could a "superior" crypto like Monero be, if that strategy were adopted? Please be dispassionate, and look at it without bias. If Monero is technically better than Dash, and yet Dash outperforms Monero, then what could the difference be?

From this clueless noobie's viewpoint, the keys to domination in the Anonymous Coin Game appear to be marketing and user friendliness. And having trollers in the penalty box could be considered a negative factor as well.

Despite having better players, Monero is massively behind on points, as Dash is working better as a team, and its strategy is superior. Is it too late for Monero to learn this? The Anonymous Coin Game will only have one winner. Can M come from behind? Will D hang on for the win? Stay tuned!

Is Team Monero really better than the Dash team, if it is losing? It looks to me like Monero, is not a complete team. To this “clueless noobie”, it looks like it needs marketing, and user friendliness. It’s like a team with great scorers, fantastic skaters… but no goalie.

Edit: no offense intended. I now own Monero, Dash and yes, Bitcoin.

[TrueCryptonaire]

...
Dash is no competition to Monero.  We know that.  
...

Disagree. It is competition, and strong competition at that. It is not as good, on paper, but nevertheless is winning in the marketplace, for now. As they say in sports, “That’s why they play the games.” The question should be “Why?” Or maybe, “How, and can Monero overcome Dash’s lead?”

The "Dash is a scam" argument doesn't work. Open your eyes. Look at the price.
Fiat money is a scam too. No one cares.

Got it in one. As a "clueless noobie", to quote a relentless troller on the Dash thread, I see that those in the Monero camp have a massive blindspot, about how, despite being less than a pristine and pure coin, Dash is succeeding. On Planet Monero, marketing seems to be a bad word, and user friendliness? Pshaw, too smart to need that!

Come on! If that is what it takes to elevate a "flawed" coin like Dash to greatness, then how amazing could a "superior" crypto like Monero be, if that strategy were adopted? Please be dispassionate, and look at it without bias. If Monero is technically better than Dash, and yet Dash outperforms Monero, then what could the difference be?

From this clueless noobie's viewpoint, the keys to domination in the Anonymous Coin Game appear to be marketing and user friendliness. And having trollers in the penalty box could be considered a negative factor as well.

Despite having better players, Monero is massively behind on points, as Dash is working better as a team, and its strategy is superior. Is it too late for Monero to learn this? The Anonymous Coin Game will only have one winner. Can M come from behind? Will D hang on for the win? Stay tuned!

Is Team Monero really better than the Dash team, if it is losing? It looks to me like Monero, is not a complete team. To this “clueless noobie”, it looks like it needs marketing, and user friendliness. It’s like a team with great scorers, fantastic skaters… but no goalie.

Edit: no offense intended. I now own Monero, Dash and yes, Bitcoin.

Usually I do not endorse newbies but you nailed it.
Dark coin (please use term Dark coin because the name was changed in order to trick money from the people who do not do their research) is direct and the most relevant competitor to Monero, Etherium is not the competition of Monero but Dark coin sure is because they both serve the very same niche.
Monero needs now desperatively the things you said - a lot of ongoing marketing hype (not just a couple random vids from a guy in the garage) but consistent pumping and presentations of reasons why people should be adapting Monero like never before. And as you said, user friendliness.
Actually the competition is a good thing because it forces Monero to grow marketcapwise and reach such level of professionalism as Dark coin has.

[Kotone]

Should i sell my monero right now and then wait for it to be dump to buy and stack in again? What do you think guys im thinking that deep to sell or to stack another coin for the future.

[wajik-tempe]

whether Coinbase will receive monero ??

[TrueCryptonaire]

Should i sell my monero right now and then wait for it to be dump to buy and stack in again? What do you think guys im thinking that deep to sell or to stack another coin for the future.

Never base your trading on the advice of the trolls who are speaking into their own book.
You need to decide yourself what to do and take full responsibility of the outcomes of your decisions.

[KeyJockey]

...
Dash is no competition to Monero.  We know that.  
...

Disagree. It is competition, and strong competition at that. It is not as good, on paper, but nevertheless is winning in the marketplace, for now...

I should clarify that I meant Dash is "no competition" in any of the markets or use cases where fungibility/privacy actually matters

That is probably most/best represented as the darknet markets, which is nothing to sneeze at as so-called "System D" economies are abso-frikkin-lutely HUGE.  But it's not only DMN's as we-here around this forum well know: FUNGIBILITY MATTERS to just NORMAL PEOPLE too, much more than almost everyone realizes!!!

Anyway, the DNM operators who matter have already pretty clearly said they will not ever TOUCH Dash.  IMHO this is probably the primary reason why the Dashers finally decided to stop trying to compete with Monero on fungibility/privacy and instead they decided to pivot to this "ease of use" and gov't compliance posture instead.

[kurious]

...
Dash is no competition to Monero.  We know that.  
...

Disagree. It is competition, and strong competition at that. It is not as good, on paper, but nevertheless is winning in the marketplace, for now...

I should clarify that I meant Dash is "no competition" in any of the markets or use cases where fungibility/privacy actually matters

That is probably most/best represented as the darknet markets, which is nothing to sneeze at as so-called "System D" economies are abso-frikkin-lutely HUGE.  But it's not only DMN's as we-here around this forum well know: FUNGIBILITY MATTERS to just NORMAL PEOPLE too, much more than almost everyone realizes!!!

Anyway, the DNM operators who matter have already pretty clearly said they will not ever TOUCH Dash.  IMHO this is probably the primary reason why the Dashers finally decided to stop trying to compete with Monero on fungibility/privacy and instead they decided to pivot to this "ease of use" and gov't compliance posture instead.

As you said earlier it is Bitcoin they are after.

Hubris, yes - but they just popped over $100 and reached about 3 quarters of a billion USD market cap.

BTC dominance in market cap now at 78.7% - so (since BTC is not dropping) new money is coming in and it's going into alts.

Tempted by 30% a DAY rises perhaps...

Go figure.   It is NOT sustainable.

[kurious]

Should i sell my monero right now and then wait for it to be dump to buy and stack in again? What do you think guys im thinking that deep to sell or to stack another coin for the future.

If you think it will dump, do it. You may be right, you may not. 

You are posting in a relatively Monero-positive thread, so do you expect anyone here to advise you on this?

Most people here are long term accumulators

[KeyJockey]

Oh, by the way guys... I think I know how to stop Dash from rising any more 

Just now, I just bought ONE DASH COIN using about $100 worth of bitcoin that I was lucky enough to WIN today, totally unexpected fluke.

Easy Come, Easy Go... right?  Buying stupid Dash at what may be the TOP of this epic bubble run is definitely a "gamble" more extreme than any casino odds LOL

And... EVERY... FREAKING... TIME... when I "capitulate" and BUY some coin as it's been running HOT...?  ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS it immediately CRASHES

So, LOL... y'all can thank me later 

[rangedriver]

To be honest, I've never really understood why peeps even regard Dash as being some kind of threat to Monero. It really isn't. Dash could quite easily be the biggest scam on the planet, but I don't think that has any real bearing on Monero's existence. I don't hold Dash; never intend to. But tribalism for the sake of tribalism is just a waste of precious energy that could be best directed elsewhere.

At the end of the day, Monero is the most credible privacy-orientated cryptocurrency that exists at the moment, without ties to murky government agencies or profit-orientated foundations. That's the USP, and that's what people are buying, irrespective of the obviously manipulated trajectories of other projects.

That's all that really matters.

As for the Monero price, right now we're currently continuing the cool drive back up to the previous local 0.0169 high. A little turbulence can be expected as we attempt to break through resistance, but you'd be wise to hang tight. Once we've broken through 0.0169, it will be an easy slingshot up to the main ATH, particularly in combination of an uncertain bitcoin and a potential Dash evacuation.

So, basically fasten your seatbelts, grab yourself a Piña colada, stick on some Burt Bacharach, and enjoy the ride.

[LennyCarl]

Oh, by the way guys... I think I know how to stop Dash from rising any more 

Just now, I just bought ONE DASH COIN using about $100 worth of bitcoin that I was lucky enough to WIN today, totally unexpected fluke.

Easy Come, Easy Go... right?  Buying stupid Dash at what may be the TOP of this epic bubble run is definitely a "gamble" more extreme than any casino odds LOL

And... EVERY... FREAKING... TIME... when I "capitulate" and BUY some coin as it's been running HOT...?  ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS it immediately CRASHES

So, LOL... y'all can thank me later 

+1 haha That's what I was going to do! So, I'll thank you now lol.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Monero is just late to the altcoin party. It think before the alts pump is done even Litecoin may join the party.

[OrangeP]

Just sold some Dash  .
Go Monero

[CTTE]

Just sold a bunch of Dash... that I don't currently own!   

I'll buy it back when it drops 50% 

[toknormal]

If we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story...They've ceded that point

I don't often post in here. But for the record, that point is well and truly not ceded as far as this investor is concerned.

I have held Monero since almost day 1 of its existence and Dash from a bit before. There's never been any doubt in my mind about which was more "fungible" because for me, "fungibility" is meaningless unless you're talking about a transparent blockchain with visible balances independently of whether anyone happens to hold a private key or not.

Blockchain transparency (not obscurity) is what sustains authenticity & confidence and confidence is what sustains value if the asset is otherwise unbacked. I appreciate that posters in this thread prefer their blockchains encrypted. I've no problem with that since there are markets to cater for everyone's preference. Just don't pretend you've won some kind of 'battle' when you're not even on the same battlefield.

[kurious]

If we just are thinking about the best fungible (private) crypto. Monero Wins On That, No Question, Game Over, End Of Story...They've ceded that point

I don't often post in here. But for the record, that point is well and truly not ceded as far as this investor is concerned.

I have held Monero since almost day 1 of its existence and Dash from a bit before. There's never been any doubt in my mind about which was more "fungible" because for me, "fungibility" is meaningless unless you're talking about a transparent blockchain with visible balances independently of whether anyone happens to hold a private key or not.

Blockchain transparency (not obscurity) is what sustains authenticity & confidence and confidence is what sustains value if the asset is otherwise unbacked. I appreciate that posters in this thread prefer their blockchains encrypted. I've no problem with that since there are markets to cater for everyone's preference. Just don't pretend you've won some kind of 'battle' when you're not even on the same battlefield.

Are you saying you think Dash is better than Monero - at least in this respect?

[Dotto]

A big move is in the kitchen

[ArticMine]

For all of you lending out thousands of Monero especially at really low rates... just think about it for a moment. Right now we have about 190,000 XMR available to short and a good share of them are available at VERY low rates. While Dash on the other hand has only about 17,000 and yes I know some are currently shorting Dash but, even when their price was much lower the numbers were still about 8 or 9 to 1.  That makes it extremely easy for anyone with some btc to short Monero at a very low cost and in big numbers and drive that price down.  

The MasterNode scheme does one thing effectively and that is remove huge numbers of coins from the market for trading AND for lending, thus raising the cost to short and making it easier to keep a pump going to these really extreme levels.

Please re-examine your lending habits, if we all quit squabbling over the scraps maybe Monero would make some headway as far as price goes.

And yes that include you TC!

There is more to this, but is is fair to say that low XMR interest rates may be in part at least fuelling the Dash bubble. I am going to start with the changes in the Dash masternode network. http://178.254.23.111/~pub/Dash/Dash_Info.html What is very significant is the drop in the number of masternodes ~500 masternodes or 500,000 Dash just before the start of the Dash price rise. Now quizzie made the argument that these masternodes were kicked off the Dash network due to a software upgrade. That was fair enough at the time but the reality is that these masternodes have for the most part not returned to the Dash masternode network. So I am forced to look again at my original argument leveraged longs.

At the time I'm posting this Dash is @ 45.35$. Anybody know if this is organic or if this is just a bubble?

Dash has been in an uptrend for a couple of months now, resulting in a dramatic price break-out. Time will tell if this is indeed a bubble that could burst at any time
or if it is due to an organic rise.

Personally though i think Dash deserves that third rank on coinmarketcap as it kept developing its cryptocurrency from the moment it was launched till this very day.
Dash Evolution is also progressing nicely with an Alpha release scheduled for mid summer 2017. This will bring Dash massive scalability and a distinct focus
on the ease of usability.

Link : https://www.dash.org/evolution/

Maybe some large whales are taking positions in Dash right now because of that, or maybe there is a stronger tendency to diversify into promising altcoins ?
Who knows....
    

    

... or a large leveraged Dash long position. Ever wondered why 500 Dash masternodes were removed from the Dash masternode network on February 26, 2017 just before the breakout? http://178.254.23.111/~pub/Dash/Dash_Info.html My interest in this by the way is the coin that is a likely candidate for the corresponding short position.  

Edit 1: Just a theory. https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=753252.msg18068376#msg18068376

Edit 2: By the way Dash does deserve congratulations on Bronze

Those 500 Dash masternodes were actually kicked from the netwerk as a spork got activated that day that ruled that only 0.12.1 masternodes were allowed on the netwerk. Its part of Dash controlled hard fork into update 0.12.1

First the spork activation can make a good cover for someone planning such a leveraged long with minimal impact on the market.  One still has to ask the question where did the 500,000 Dash go. The price moved up sharply so it was not dumped, furthermore there is very little Dash available for lending. This leaves collateral for a leveraged longs as a reasonable plausible alternative. Such positions have up to now being very profitable.

So how does one set up a Dash leveraged  long position on Poloniex for example?. One deposits Dash into Poloniex and then borrows another coin to sell short for more Dash. It is here where Monero comes in. The combination of very low Monero interest rates, a very large availability of Monero for lending, a highly liquid Monero market, together with a bearish bias until the beginning of March made Monero a very attractive candidate for the short side of the long Dash position. Furthermore as long a Dash rises at a faster rate than Monero the Dash / Monero spread is fine and in fact the rising Monero price may serve to further fuel the Dash bubble. The key market to watch here is DASH/XMR https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash Dash is currently trading for ~5 XMR this is below the ~7.8 XMR in August of 2016 for example. So the Dash bubble may still have some legs.  The net result of all of this is that the Dash bubble may be fuelled in part by low Monero interest rates, and the development of sizable Long Dash / Short Monero positions.

Like any bubble the current Dash bubble will eventually crash and the pigs will go to the slaughterhouse. The impact on the broader Monero markets would be: A rising  default risk of Monero loans collateralized by Dash and a significant overall Monero short squeeze. Should this occur those who have taken delivery of their XMR  should be in the strongest position to profit from the resulting blood on the streets.