[XMR] Monero Speculation

[mnemonicsoup]

http://www.ibtimes.com/cypherpunk-economics-what-monero-reveals-about-equifax-breach-2590345

[ozkraut]

http://www.ibtimes.com/cypherpunk-economics-what-monero-reveals-about-equifax-breach-2590345

Rather bullish. Seems there is a bit of awakening. The sleeper is stirring.

[LennyCarl]

http://www.ibtimes.com/cypherpunk-economics-what-monero-reveals-about-equifax-breach-2590345

Rather bullish. Seems there is a bit of awakening. The sleeper is stirring.

I feel it in my bone!

[saddambitcoin]

I am one of those who rage quitted Monero after the fake fluffy pony "announcement" 3 months ago. I have since been trying to re-enter hoping for that elusive major dip. Hoping today is that day though price seems to be exceptionally resilient to the big China FUD. Oh well, going to watch dumb and dumber today... need to relate to something.

Today is a good day to Monero.

A very good day, only wish I had set my bids a little lower. One must be patient like the condor as you say. Cheers to a successful hard fork.

[rangedriver]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

[NotSafe4Wurk]

Monero is the only cryptocurrency I see use besides bitcoin. Future looks bright.

[cAPSLOCK]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

I agree with this, and another point...  once you are used to the liquidity freedom of crypto, it's addictive.  You are in control of your money moving back into fiat is painful as you introduce slowness, fees, and counterparty risk.

As someone who lived through the great BTC trough of 2014-17 I just feel very twitchy about the current bitcoin price action.

[kurious]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

I agree with this, and another point...  once you are used to the liquidity freedom of crypto, it's addictive.  You are in control of your money moving back into fiat is painful as you introduce slowness, fees, and counterparty risk.

As someone who lived through the great BTC trough of 2014-17 I just feel very twitchy about the current bitcoin price action.

You are not alone, it's not the dumps I fear, it's the long, long wait for us to get back to a price I know we've already reached.

After the 2013/14 Gox crash, it was years of waiting for prices to get excited about again... 

Mind you, I found Monero along that dull grind back to where we are now.

[dEBRUYNE]

"Many fun new FFS proposals to fund!"

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/70idsz/many_fun_new_ffs_proposals_to_fund/

[kurious]

"Many fun new FFS proposals to fund!"

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/70idsz/many_fun_new_ffs_proposals_to_fund/

Justin is not going to the UK?

Any reason why not..?  Will support something, but I wanted to support this.  No UK though, once again we get missed out - seems a little odd. I am sure I am not the only UK based Monero fan.

[s1gs3gv]

Some interesting comments on multi-sig and also on Dash. Apologies if this is old news to everybody.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.02489.pdf

[johnalan]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

I agree with this, and another point...  once you are used to the liquidity freedom of crypto, it's addictive.  You are in control of your money moving back into fiat is painful as you introduce slowness, fees, and counterparty risk.

As someone who lived through the great BTC trough of 2014-17 I just feel very twitchy about the current bitcoin price action.

You really think we're going back to crypto dark ages?

[cAPSLOCK]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

I agree with this, and another point...  once you are used to the liquidity freedom of crypto, it's addictive.  You are in control of your money moving back into fiat is painful as you introduce slowness, fees, and counterparty risk.

As someone who lived through the great BTC trough of 2014-17 I just feel very twitchy about the current bitcoin price action.

You really think we're going back to crypto dark ages?

No. I do not.  I think we are in a different era for crypto.  But the unknowns are still large.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

https://torrentfreak.com/the-pirate-bay-website-runs-a-cryptocurrency-miner-170916/

This, I believe, is how microtransactions will eventually manifest. No need to send tiny amounts of crypto around when you can just generate some hashes in javascript. It's the future of ad-free content delivery and sooner or later it will power the entire web.

[garytheasshole]

https://torrentfreak.com/the-pirate-bay-website-runs-a-cryptocurrency-miner-170916/

This, I believe, is how microtransactions will eventually manifest. No need to send tiny amounts of crypto around when you can just generate some hashes in javascript. It's the future of ad-free content delivery and sooner or later it will power the entire web.

Genius! TPB never ceases to amaze me. Hail hydra!

[Febo]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

I agree with this, and another point...  once you are used to the liquidity freedom of crypto, it's addictive.  You are in control of your money moving back into fiat is painful as you introduce slowness, fees, and counterparty risk.

As someone who lived through the great BTC trough of 2014-17 I just feel very twitchy about the current bitcoin price action.

You really think we're going back to crypto dark ages?

If price of BTC was $600-200 back then and now might be $4000-1500, that dont mean are the same ages. It is a huge difference.   But yes for those that acquire BTC in 2017 will be same as for those of us that acquire BTC in 2014.  Crypto dark ages.


Such periods will happen 100%. There i snot even 0.001% chance that will not exist. Because there is no logic that BTC can only grow till infinity. At current value of $ price can hardly go over 1 million. And for that many many things (that might never happen at all) needs to happen.

[silverston]

Monero is the only cryptocurrency I see use besides bitcoin. Future looks bright.

if I correctly understand, then monero is the most anonymous crypto currency at the moment? Or is there still?

[Majormax]

If we truly believe we might be entering a bear to 3800 or 2800 or beyond... why would we stay in Crypto?  It is far more profitable to sell for USD, pay the taxes and buy back in next year at 70% cost or perhaps half price.

Honestly, because it's a pain in the ass, and there any many opportunities within the cryptospace to accumulate more XMR and BTC with greater profit outcomes than by going through FIAT.

I agree with this, and another point...  once you are used to the liquidity freedom of crypto, it's addictive.  You are in control of your money moving back into fiat is painful as you introduce slowness, fees, and counterparty risk.

As someone who lived through the great BTC trough of 2014-17 I just feel very twitchy about the current bitcoin price action.

You really think we're going back to crypto dark ages?

If price of BTC was $600-200 back then and now might be $4000-1500, that dont mean are the same ages. It is a huge difference.   But yes for those that acquire BTC in 2017 will be same as for those of us that acquire BTC in 2014.  Crypto dark ages.


Such periods will happen 100%. There i snot even 0.001% chance that will not exist. Because there is no logic that BTC can only grow till infinity. At current value of $ price can hardly go over 1 million. And for that many many things (that might never happen at all) needs to happen.

Yes of course there is a correction coming (or a Dark Age).  That is a very clear trend in the BTC (for 6 years), and now other Crypto charts. Lots of ppl pretend it won't happen, and they will suffer the most with lack of preparation.

Each huge wave up is followed by a retracement to just above the previous high.  In this wave up, the start was around $300 on BTC, the high looks like $5000, and the previous high was $1200, which is where it is heading now, and will mark the floor of this current downtrend. The waves last a couple of years on average, but there is a wide variation.

As for XMR, which is what we are talking about here, the price will also fall, but relative strength or weakness will reveal where it is going in the long term.

[rangedriver]

Yes of course there is a correction coming (or a Dark Age).  That is a very clear trend in the BTC (for 6 years), and now other Crypto charts. Lots of ppl pretend it won't happen, and they will suffer the most with lack of preparation.

Each huge wave up is followed by a retracement to just above the previous high.  In this wave up, the start was around $300 on BTC, the high looks like $5000, and the previous high was $1200, which is where it is heading now, and will mark the floor of this current downtrend. The waves last a couple of years on average, but there is a wide variation.

$259.34 (2013 Q2 peak)

x 4.48446

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

x 4.28116

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

x 4.38281 (averaged multiplier)

$21822 (target peak)

******

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

/ 4.4051

$264.01 (average floor = ~2013 Q2 peak)

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

/ 4.39024 (averaged multiplier)

$1134.10 (target average floor = ~2013 Q4 peak)

[cAPSLOCK]

Yes of course there is a correction coming (or a Dark Age).  That is a very clear trend in the BTC (for 6 years), and now other Crypto charts. Lots of ppl pretend it won't happen, and they will suffer the most with lack of preparation.

Each huge wave up is followed by a retracement to just above the previous high.  In this wave up, the start was around $300 on BTC, the high looks like $5000, and the previous high was $1200, which is where it is heading now, and will mark the floor of this current downtrend. The waves last a couple of years on average, but there is a wide variation.

$259.34 (2013 Q2 peak)

x 4.48446

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

x 4.28116

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

x 4.38281 (averaged multiplier)

$21822 (target peak)

******

$1163 (2013 Q4 peak)

/ 4.4051

$264.01 (average floor = ~2013 Q2 peak)

$4979 (2017 Q3 peak)

/ 4.39024 (averaged multiplier)

$1134.10 (target average floor = ~2013 Q4 peak)

Thing is from my experience once markets show this sort of pattern to the extent it is recognizable they end up getting frontrun, or baked into investor consciousness and ironically they then dissipate.  About the time people discover the path to "easy money" and cheerfully get on it the cliff catches them by surprise.

In my opinion this is our current conundrum.  We do not know if it's going to be the same this time.  Which kind of clif (if there is one) is coming?  The kind we fall off of and die?  Or the kind we stand at the base of cursing we sold all our climbing gear because we were sure of the big bad bear. (Much words! Such mixed metaphor!  Wow!)

Differences from 2014...

1.  The crypto market has matured to the point that we are seeing serious coverage in the financial media
2.  We no longer have a single point of failure (darkmarkets/gox)
3.  The alt market is a serious part of the cryptosphere.  This is good and bad because:
   a.  Legitimate projects have sprung up to either blossom into their own right or at least provide a testbed for BTC (monero, litecoin)
   b.  Speculative projects have come which have an effect of being a mixed blessing in the crypto space (ETH)
   c.  ICOs.   And all the scammy pyramid schemes that are reminding us of the dotcom bubble but a sleazy version
4.  Tech has advanced with hardware wallets, payment gateways, etc.
5.  BTC is maturing as it collectively decides how to handle it's limitations.
6.  We are on the threshold of 2nd layer functionality.

So my first question is... can we really expect another 2-3 year bear?  It just seems so unlikely considering the momentum we now see... 

Second question:  what does this mean for Monero?

If Bitcoin pulls back, XMR will too probably.  But XMR is uncoupled from bitcoin in a special way.  It's kind of like Texas.  When the USA experiences financial turbulence there is always some connection to the oil markets.  And Texas usually is insulated from the sorts of chaos other large economies within the US face.  The housing bubble was an example.  Housing prices in TX were more stable during that time.  In a similar way the utility XMR offers may stabilize it at least against BTC both because of the unique use cases (eg. darkmarkets) as well as the potential value transfer case where for example Chinese crypto flight could end up in in part going to XMR for privacy sake.

Interesting times indeed.  Thanks for the curse, China.