Hufflepuff Making 2k BTC On PrimeDice Nov 2014. March 2015 Update: He Cheated

[unamis76]

This guy did it again, how is it even possible...

[redsn0w]

This guy did it again, how is it even possible...

I don't know , it's very strange...

[DarKSpectrE]

This guy did it again, how is it even possible...

I don't know , it's very strange...

Yep, I don't buy that it was a pure dumb luck.

[Omikifuse]

This guy did it again, how is it even possible...

I don't know , it's very strange...

Yep, I don't buy that it was a pure dumb luck.

Or maybe he found a flaw in the betting system.

Or maybe he is from the Secret Service and has a Quantum computer to play with.

If it is pure luck it is a waste, because he could win billions betting on lottery

[DarKSpectrE]

This guy did it again, how is it even possible...

I don't know , it's very strange...

Yep, I don't buy that it was a pure dumb luck.

Or maybe he found a flaw in the betting system.

Or maybe he is from the Secret Service and has a Quantum computer to play with.

If it is pure luck it is a waste, because he could win billions betting on lottery

Lol. Maybe he has the server seed.

[omahapoker]

dooglus knows a lot and i mean alot about server seed

[zoukenn]

I hope that Hufflepuff will stop to bet in primedice and go at an other part or try to have fun with its money, because this isn't absolutely a good thing for primedice 

[dooglus]

http://prntscr.com/52kipm Just another example of how Stunna is a scam artist. I don't know how Primedice has survived this long with Stunna scamming Hufflepuff 1/3 of a penny every time he wins $8,000...

I made a typo. It's more like 4 pennies not 1/3 of a penny:



It's still a small percentage error. My point is that such errors shouldn't happen.

[dooglus]

Plus when PrimeDice still had public stats, this is months ago if not last year PrimeDice already had 4000+ profit. That is at least a billion bets ago.

Are you sure PrimeDice ever had public stats?

I remember they used to show the number of bets and the total amount wagered, but I don't think they ever showed their profit.

They stopped publishing the amount wagered about a month ago:

Tue Sep 30 11:14:09 PDT 2014    BTC WAGERED: 479,855.2881 TOTAL BETS: 1,165,821,154
Wed Oct  1 09:26:44 PDT 2014    BTC WAGERED: 481,527.3520 TOTAL BETS: 1,173,764,666
Thu Oct  2 11:09:28 PDT 2014    BTC WAGERED: 484,587.2089 TOTAL BETS: 1,184,083,585
Fri Oct  3 12:36:05 PDT 2014                              TOTAL BETS: 1,194,817,217
Sat Oct  4 10:53:32 PDT 2014                              TOTAL BETS: 1,203,248,935
Sun Oct  5 10:05:42 PDT 2014                              TOTAL BETS: 1,213,617,864

but given a house edge of 1%, we would expect a profit of around 5000 BTC at that point. Of course, the actual profit could be vastly different in either direction.

He probably figured a way to determine when the middle part that loses either way, above 33.0 and below 66.99, has passed its cycle and just bounce between <33.0 and >66.99 depending which one is going into positive variance.

According to Wikipedia:



The squared term means that variance is always non-negative. So what is "positive variance"?

[paradoxal420]

Plus when PrimeDice still had public stats, this is months ago if not last year PrimeDice already had 4000+ profit. That is at least a billion bets ago.

Are you sure PrimeDice ever had public stats?

I remember they used to show the number of bets and the total amount wagered, but I don't think they ever showed their profit.

They stopped publishing the amount wagered about a month ago:

Tue Sep 30 11:14:09 PDT 2014    BTC WAGERED: 479,855.2881 TOTAL BETS: 1,165,821,154
Wed Oct  1 09:26:44 PDT 2014    BTC WAGERED: 481,527.3520 TOTAL BETS: 1,173,764,666
Thu Oct  2 11:09:28 PDT 2014    BTC WAGERED: 484,587.2089 TOTAL BETS: 1,184,083,585
Fri Oct  3 12:36:05 PDT 2014                              TOTAL BETS: 1,194,817,217
Sat Oct  4 10:53:32 PDT 2014                              TOTAL BETS: 1,203,248,935
Sun Oct  5 10:05:42 PDT 2014                              TOTAL BETS: 1,213,617,864

but given a house edge of 1%, we would expect a profit of around 5000 BTC at that point. Of course, the actual profit could be vastly different in either direction.

He probably figured a way to determine when the middle part that loses either way, above 33.0 and below 66.99, has passed its cycle and just bounce between <33.0 and >66.99 depending which one is going into positive variance.

According to Wikipedia:



The squared term means that variance is always non-negative. So what is "positive variance"?

Yeah I'm pretty positive there was a time in 2013 when they showed the house profit

[HWoodrow]

What a disaster ! This user is the most luckiest people that I've ever heard  since I'm in the bitcoin world.

[marcotheminer]

If this truly is a different person than Stunna, then I think Stunna is close to 0 house profit again. (2000BTC having to be paid out) He must behoping he'll continue to come back and lose eventually.

[dooglus]

dooglus knows a lot and i mean alot about server seed

It's funny because "server seed" can also mean "waiter cum".

I'm not sure why omahapoker is commenting on this; the manner in which I chose to "tip" my servants is entirely between me and them.

[m19]

Plus when PrimeDice still had public stats, this is months ago if not last year PrimeDice already had 4000+ profit. That is at least a billion bets ago.

Are you sure PrimeDice ever had public stats?

I remember they used to show the number of bets and the total amount wagered, but I don't think they ever showed their profit.

They stopped publishing the amount wagered about a month ago:

I'm not sure anymore. It could be the bankroll instead of profit like shown on this picture I found googling. I'm pretty sure some number on there, either bankroll or profit, was around 4000.

[FanEagle]

I think the world goes like that, some has a giant luck, and some others hasn't

[dooglus]

That is why his luck % of 104.23 after 7,292 rolls is so high.

Do we know how PD calculates the luck statistic?

I just made a new account ('dooglus2') and played 24 times at 3x (33%), noting wins, losses, and luck:

wins    losses  luck
0       0       NaN
        1       0
1               202.94
        2       101.47 *
        3       67.65
        4       50.73
        5       40.59
        6       33.82
        7       28.99
        8       25.37
        9       22.55
        10      20.29
2               40.59
3               60.88
4               81.18
5               101.47 *
        11      92.24
        12      84.56
6               101.47 *
7               118.38
        13      109.27
        14      101.47 *
        15      94.7
8               108.23
        16      101.47 *

I can't immediately come up with the formula they're using.

When I had won 1 and lost 1, my luck was 202.94%. I had bet twice at 33%, so my expected number of wins was 0.66 and my actual number of wins was 1. How do I get 202.94% from that?

Note that my #wins was exactly double my #losses 5 times (not counting the starting 0,0 case) and each time it was, my luck was 101.47%.

Edit: this fits pretty well:

   (0.6697 / 0.33) * (wins / losses)

I don't know why 0.6697 though, when my chance of losing is 0.67

Edit2: I think this tells us that hufflepuff played at least some rolls at a different multiplier. Because winning 2865 times and losing 4427 times at 3x would give a luck of around 131.33%, but his luck was "only" 104.23% at that point.

[chazley]

That is why his luck % of 104.23 after 7,292 rolls is so high.

Do we know how PD calculates the luck statistic?

I just made a new account ('dooglus2') and played 24 times at 3x (33%), noting wins, losses, and luck:

wins    losses  luck
0       0       NaN
        1       0
1               202.94
        2       101.47 *
        3       67.65
        4       50.73
        5       40.59
        6       33.82
        7       28.99
        8       25.37
        9       22.55
        10      20.29
2               40.59
3               60.88
4               81.18
5               101.47 *
        11      92.24
        12      84.56
6               101.47 *
7               118.38
        13      109.27
        14      101.47 *
        15      94.7
8               108.23
        16      101.47 *

I can't immediately come up with the formula they're using.

When I had won 1 and lost 1, my luck was 202.94%. I had bet twice at 33%, so my expected number of wins was 0.66 and my actual number of wins was 1. How do I get 202.94% from that?

Note that my #wins was exactly double my #losses 5 times (not counting the starting 0,0 case) and each time it was, my luck was 101.47%.

Edit: this fits pretty well:

    (0.6697 / 0.33) * (wins / losses)

I don't know why 0.6697 though, when my chance of losing is 0.67

Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already.

Much love.

[Omikifuse]

He probably is at the local brothel spending his hard earned bitcoins.

At least I would not bother to visit forums or gamble online for some long time  if I was the winner of 1k Bitcoins

[jstyler]

I would be even happy with 1 btc or more lol

Anyway, nice happenings on pd3 over there...

Never had that luck, just lost my hard worked 0.6 BTC :/

[dooglus]

Dooglus, stop wasting your time calculating obscure statistics no one cares about and re-open your dice site already.

Much love.

Stunna just lost 2000 BTC in a few days and must be stressing about it. "Is there an exploit? Is he cheating? Is he going to bust me? Should I reduce the max bet to prevent further losses, or would that just prevent him losing his gains back to the site?"

I remember having all those worries whenever anyone got lucky on JD, and don't miss them.

Mwaaaah.