ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[sngwinner]

"I love that there are companies building out integrated stacks (hardware, software, containers), the challenges will be delivering the reliability we have come to expect from a Tier III/concurrently maintainable facility:"

I'm an AM bull, but the operations has been pretty reliable as is with the "data center" being what looks like nothing more than a few shelves in a broom closet.

I don't know what a tier III facility is but it sounds costly and is it absolutely necessary?

[blunthammer]

How expensive is the hardware?
How expensive is it to burn the building the closet is in down because there is no way to mitigate heat that is generated from the hardware?


Slow hardware=less heat

Powerful hardware=more heat

Computers turn electricity into heat no matter what. If the hardware needs to crunch numbers and algos faster they will run hotter. CME, NYSE, and the racks that house the rendering software for motion pictures all run 25kw+ because they get data crunched faster. The challenge every one of them has is heat rejection.

So if I have $3M in hardware in a rack running 30Kw means it's costing $100,000 per Kw of processing. You'll pay $10k a month to put that rack in a secure building where you have a contract that says you'll have less than 5 minutes of downtime per year. So if it costs you $100,000 a KW one time, and $120k a year to house and cool that hardware, you need to clear $240k to break even.

How much can you mine a year?

[webbrowser]

?  If hosting costs USD 10k/mth, at current exchange rates, that is 12.5 BTC and can be recouped using half of the current block reward.

[burger]

....
Slow hardware=less heat

Powerful hardware=more heat

....

I would say that my old gfx card (about 700 Mhash) that is a slow hardware generates more heat than a 5Ghash BFL ASIC. So

Slow hardware = more heat

Efficient hardware = less heat

[ineededausername]

friedcat did tell me on the 14th that tapeout was still on track for the 20th, so I'm pretty confident in a tapeout at least this week.

[empoweoqwj]

friedcat did tell me on the 14th that tapeout was still on track for the 20th, so I'm pretty confident in a tapeout at least this week.

Where did he tell you that?

[AMuppInTime]

friedcat did tell me on the 14th that tapeout was still on track for the 20th, so I'm pretty confident in a tapeout at least this week.

Where did he tell you that?

Just like there are exchanges necessary to move shares around, some questions are likely to find their way in said exchanges - I would bet that "are we still on track for a Jan 20 tapeout?" is one such question.

[minerpumpkin]

friedcat did tell me on the 14th that tapeout was still on track for the 20th, so I'm pretty confident in a tapeout at least this week.

Where did he tell you that?

Just like there are exchanges necessary to move shares around, some questions are likely to find their way in said exchanges - I would bet that "are we still on track for a Jan 20 tapeout?" is one such question.

Possibly. When I read 'friedcat did tell me...' I just thought 'haha, troll elsewhere' But then I realised this wasn't a newly registered kid.

So... really?  *hopesUp*

[Dargumin]

Everyone too busy dumping shares to post here? Share price is tanking hard

[empoweoqwj]

Everyone too busy dumping shares to post here? Share price is tanking hard

Not exactly a shock. If people were buying on the "20th January" tapeout date and apart from a "rumour" posted last night, absolutely no news from FC about it, the share price was always going to head south again. Dividends almost evaporating this week didn't help.

A post from FC is getting rarer than a Man U win these days

[tomywomy]

How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.

[jimmothy]

How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.

AM will deploy 2-20ph during what I predict to be a 40-400ph network hashrate.

So that would give AM from 0.5% - 50% of network hashrate.

[empoweoqwj]

How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.

Read all about ASICMINER's "vision of the future" from their post on 10th December. The only question is whether it happens or not ...

[ninjarobot]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen! How did we get here and will we ever see those glory days again?

I'm still holding AM, mainly because I am too lazy to sell. But if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost.

FC mentioned that he does not like to work for others, what is preventing him from neglecting AM and letting it die a slow death while rebooting privately? His identity is still unknown so he can do whatever he pleases. Keeping my shares on faith alone is tough.

[Entropy-uc]

Oh, how the mighty have fallen! How did we get here and will we ever see those glory days again?

I'm still holding AM, mainly because I am too lazy to sell. But if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost.

FC mentioned that he does not like to work for others, what is preventing him from neglecting AM and letting it die a slow death while rebooting privately? His identity is still unknown so he can do whatever he pleases. Keeping my shares on faith alone is tough.

A study of Discus Fish would lead most to think that your scenario is already underway.

[empoweoqwj]

I think "if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost" is a completely fair statement. But if it succeeds, a lot is won at current share prices. That's why I've not sold out.

But the lack of communication from FC is getting very disturbing now. This must be  the longest ever gap between his posts since IPO. If he doesn't announce something real soon, I'll be leaving the ship, whether its sinking or not. Can't make investment decisions in a vacuum.

[BitHub]

there is a reason why FC isn't saying anything because gen 3 wont happen in time. Get out now while you can. Even if they put out gen 3 its already too late. FC doesn't care about asicminer anymore for months they been working on something else that doesn't require investors. I feel sorrry for those still holding on but the risk is sooo huge dont let 10btc turn into 1btc please. I'm trying to sell off my last 100 shares very slowly at a lost but good to get something back.

[jimmothy]

there is a reason why FC isn't saying anything because gen 3 wont happen in time. Get out now while you can. Even if they put out gen 3 its already too late. FC doesn't care about asicminer anymore for months they been working on something else that doesn't require investors. I feel sorrry for those still holding on but the risk is sooo huge dont let 10btc turn into 1btc please. I'm trying to sell off my last 100 shares very slowly at a lost but good to get something back.

You might want to make a new account. Nobody here takes you seriously even for a fudster.

[jimmothy]

I think "if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost" is a completely fair statement. But if it succeeds, a lot is won at current share prices. That's why I've not sold out.

But the lack of communication from FC is getting very disturbing now. This must be  the longest ever gap between his posts since IPO. If he doesn't announce something real soon, I'll be leaving the ship, whether its sinking or not. Can't make investment decisions in a vacuum.

Does FC need to hold your hand too when making investments? Updates come monthly and its been like 1 month and a few days since last update. But your right AM is totally doomed and we should all jump ship right before next gen.

[BitThink]

I think "if Gen 3 fails, I fear all is lost" is a completely fair statement. But if it succeeds, a lot is won at current share prices. That's why I've not sold out.

But the lack of communication from FC is getting very disturbing now. This must be  the longest ever gap between his posts since IPO. If he doesn't announce something real soon, I'll be leaving the ship, whether its sinking or not. Can't make investment decisions in a vacuum.

Does FC need to hold your hand too when making investments? Updates come monthly and its been like 1 month and a few days since last update. But your right AM is totally doomed and we should all jump ship right before next gen.

To be fair, improving PR was promised in last update and we've seen how it has been improved.