Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[davewr2013]

Here is a guess on whether a Jupiter will pay off.

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=510929738.01615&dcosts=4500&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=550000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.1&btcusd=330&dpowcon=800&btcusd_mincrease=2&pcost=0.15&calcweeks=40&dleadtime=1&action=calc#

$4500
35% Jumps
2% increase in BTC per week
800 Watts power

etc.

You can see the assumptions on the sheet -- modify to your hearts content.

However, if the jumps continue at 35% increase then only a one jump (2 week) delay is acceptable in delivery.

A 2 jump delay -- end of the month -- means a negative ROI.

Take it as you will.

It would be nice to get finer adjustments -- but this should give a reasonable estimate.

[markm]

Gee, a tough choice... double your money by just sitting tight with your bitcoins, or hope for a few percent profit by risking a many percent loss...

-MarkM-

[FarSky7]

I just stepped deeper into the shit- Order 10xxx.

Wish me luck, some of that never hurts.

Jesus, for $5180 I want a fucking coffee mug or t shirt or something.

I as a BFL refugee out 8K salute you......should it not work we can start an ASIC miner foreign legion of lost souls and then make t-shirts


Searing

Shit, at this point I'm in the Legion already. T-shirts? Think camoflauged Elvis style jumpsuits.

[FUKT]

Whats with all these people buying November Jupiters, I hope you are not buying with btc.

[wasubii]

I dont get it either...

I'm still praying for ROI on my October 27th Jupiter.

Mined BTC8 and counting....

Spent $7000 when BTC/USD was $120 = BTC58

So another BTC50 to go...

Even in fiat terms its unlikely to ROI unless BTC hits $400+

[Tehfiend]

Whats with all these people buying November Jupiters, I hope you are not buying with btc.

Yes definitely do not sell your BTC at $370 to buy a $5000 Jupiter or two. TERRIBLE IDEA O:)

[waterboi92]

Whats with all these people buying November Jupiters, I hope you are not buying with btc.

isnt it the same thing? if i pay 14 btc for a jupiter now its same thing as ~4699 dollars.
buying with whatever currency at this point is the same because theyre worth the same right now.

[dsattler]

Here is a guess on whether a Jupiter will pay off.

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=510929738.01615&dcosts=4500&diff_mincrease=35&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=550000&diff_mincreasedecrease=0.1&btcusd=330&dpowcon=800&btcusd_mincrease=2&pcost=0.15&calcweeks=40&dleadtime=1&action=calc#

Nice calculator, haven't seen that before. Thank you for the link!

[timmmers]

Whats with all these people buying November Jupiters, I hope you are not buying with btc.

Greed. People see some mad rise in the price of something, then they jump on there hoping the same will happen to them.
Common sense and a look at the past 6 months prices would tell you that the price trebled and it's unlikely to stay there.
We all hope it does, or rises more even. To ganble it would be sensible to know WHY the price rose, and estimate when a large number of people might bail and cash their profits in.

Buying a rig now, just before 2 major producers are likely to ship and a few months before KNC are due to release gen 2, to me looks fucking insane. Look at the effect of the 1st KNC batch...for a few weeks we've got a respite from the other producers and KNC then a shitstorm of high powered rigs will make this last diff increase cycle look like a ripple. Then all you need to add to your hurt pie is a correction in BTC price and you couldn't have done a dafter thing...and it will all have been led by greed imagining great profits.

Personally I'm hoping the BTC price stays somewhere close to 250, and that will save my late delivered rig from making a loss which looked very likely...maybe. Without this rise in BTC where would we all be now as far as wanting to order another rig, or breaking even? Screwed is where.

The main difference between attitudes to KNC here (Pheonix and me for example) is that some got their rig on time as promised, and others didn't and suffered a large rise in difficulty as a result as well as losing hashing time. Promises were broken, 15th Oct came and went despite them LYING about being on track, delivering stuff they weren't, altering the status etc. We all knew the possible risks and production problems they may face, we accepted those when we ordered.  We  also accepted that we'd probably have to update firmwaRE ETC. If you don't have a machine and are told wither lies or not told anything at all. (I have practically heard nothing from KNC directly in all this tiime. ..no updates, almost all info I got came from here ..so I wonder how customers who aren't on this forum managed? KNC aren't big on communication are they after all? ).

I find all this "we're busy" stuff pathetic. KNC sshould have planned and made sure they had enough manpower from the get-go like any other company has to. It's basic. Not having time to post on their own forum? I'd laugh if that weren't such a sad excuse. If YOU ran this company do you think you couldn't spare an hour a day, or hire a person to cover thee role of web support over FB twitter and forums? They can spare people to travel the world promoting that fucking documentary after all. Those people seem to have had an unrealistic delivery of an on schedule rig too which makes that film pointless and fake. In the real world on bitcoin they'd'be a very skinny couple now, having gone without money waiting for delivery for 2 weeks at least.

Good luck if you buy a Nov rig now, hopefully the price will save you. Personally I think a fool and his money are soon parted like granny used to say. IF you must take that risk, I hope waiting for gen2 wins out as far as risk is concerned and you give yoursrelf a getter chance.

[timmmers]

KnC's gen 2 in March? As opposed to a more than half Gh in a few weeks?

AFTER the stragglers have finished delivering half a dozen Ph? As opposed to more than... in a few weeks?
 
maybe...

Next gen will have to be cheaper and waaay faster.. ..or it's not going to be worth having one. It will be interesting to see what they come up  with. They must know what the target is now, but telling us would kill any orders in Nov maybe? IF theey do manage a gen 2 worth buying, it will sell like hotcakes and murder thee ROI of anything currently hashing.

With so many variables to consider that is why honesty from manufacturers is crucial, on delivery especially. You can't expect to track them aall, but the one that you are paying money to you should be fully informed about.

[Searing]

KnC's gen 2 in March? As opposed to a more than half Gh in a few weeks?

AFTER the stragglers have finished delivering half a dozen Ph? As opposed to more than... in a few weeks?
 
maybe...

Next gen will have to be cheaper and waaay faster.. ..or it's not going to be worth having one. It will be interesting to see what they come up  with. They must know what the target is now, but telling us would kill any orders in Nov maybe? IF theey do manage a gen 2 worth buying, it will sell like hotcakes and murder thee ROI of anything currently hashing.

With so many variables to consider that is why honesty from manufacturers is crucial, on delivery especially. You can't expect to track them aall, but the one that you are paying money to you should be fully informed about.

you know to be truthful I wonder if they even know what they are gonna shoot for PH and price wise...I mean it is soooooo nuts that it is looking like a 2th machine by cointerra in feb at this price is insane (by the by cointerra did just announce on their page a successful tapeout)
 

http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-asic-miner-february-batch/

2TH at $5999.00 w/o shipping? FEB order>?  what is that like what a Jupiter would have mined 1 month ago..sure you MIGHT make ROI but I mean really 6K for FEB? at 2TH?



http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-asic-miner-february-batch/


anyway I think it very likely that KNC is getting a massive headache just trying to 'guess" what to offer for what price in the future...in this ASIC arms race...I bet they are as befuddled as the rest of us on how to play this out for FEB/MARCH price and GH wise

anyway my 2c worth
Searing

[Puppet]

Next gen will have to be cheaper and waaay faster.. .

Its not going to be cheaper for them to produce (per GH), but thats not needed yet either. Bulk silicon cost for 28nm asics <100mm² is ~$7-8 (multiply x4 for 4 dies per chip and a few dollar for packaging). Marginal production cost of a 20nm wafer is likely 2-3x higher, so even per GH, its probably roughly the same, perhaps even more expensive. But at those prices, its easy to make it "waay faster" and still have stellar margins, by just including more or bigger chips.

Key issue IMO is power efficiency.  Those finfet transistors appear to have great potential. If they could double power efficiency (compared to undervolted 28nm chips), it may be worth the NRE. Simply put, with half the electricity consumption per GH, the network tolerates twice as many GH mining at marginal profitability.

[FUKT]

KnC's gen 2 in March? As opposed to a more than half Gh in a few weeks?

AFTER the stragglers have finished delivering half a dozen Ph? As opposed to more than... in a few weeks?
 
maybe...

Next gen will have to be cheaper and waaay faster.. ..or it's not going to be worth having one. It will be interesting to see what they come up  with. They must know what the target is now, but telling us would kill any orders in Nov maybe? IF theey do manage a gen 2 worth buying, it will sell like hotcakes and murder thee ROI of anything currently hashing.

With so many variables to consider that is why honesty from manufacturers is crucial, on delivery especially. You can't expect to track them aall, but the one that you are paying money to you should be fully informed about.

you know to be truthful I wonder if they even know what they are gonna shoot for PH and price wise...I mean it is soooooo nuts that it is looking like a 2ph machine by cointerra in feb at this price is insane (by the by cointerra did just announce on their page a successful tapeout)
 

http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-asic-miner-february-batch/

2TH at $5999.00 w/o shipping? FEB order>?  what is that like what a Jupiter would have mined 1 month ago..sure you MIGHT make ROI but I mean really 6K for FEB? at 2TH?



http://cointerra.com/product/terraminer-iv-2ths-networked-asic-miner-february-batch/


anyway I think it very likely that KNC is getting a massive headache just trying to 'guess" what to offer for what price in the future...in this ASIC arms race...I bet they are as befuddled as the rest of us on how to play this out for FEB/MARCH price and GH wise

anyway my 2c worth
Searing

This is a good point, how to predict the future of btc and hash rate.

[Biomech]

I just stepped deeper into the shit- Order 10xxx.

Wish me luck, some of that never hurts.

Its like orama said.

Sure buying hardware atm may be good now however if btc does go down to sub 200 and the hardware from hf ct and ava gen2 goes live expect lots of tears.

Understood, but I feel BTC is going up. I'm not a fortune teller, tho.

Time reveals all, point being, please wish me luck!

I'm betting long on bitcoin. I think it will bobble a bit, as it has every other time it's gone up a lot, probably stabilize for a few weeks around 250-275, and then slowly climb for a bit, then go up a lot, then bobble a bit... This has been it's pattern since I started paying close attention.

I wish you the best of luck, sir. My only problem is a bit of jealousy. I wanted in on this, and couldn't raise the money. But I am glad that my horse won, even if I and it are a bit ragged right now

And to you "purists" who don't think betting against the exchange rate is a "valid" positive ROI, Stuff it. Your argument makes no economic sense, no moral sense, no technical sense, and reeks of pseudo elitist horseshit. If it were not for the rise in value of bitcoin against other currencies, there would be no ASIC race, no front page news, no widespread adoption, and the experiment would have already failed.

[Biomech]

wht is point buy machine if difficulty increases 10 times?

Some of us are playing the long game. As the value of bitcoin rises, it will hopefully offset the difficulty increases. Right now, based on bitcoin prices when the units were first offered for pre-order, you are making more money IN SPITE of the increase than if it had remained the same or driopped. Difficulty is only one factor.

Plus, mining is fun. Not all profits are tangible. If I find a way to lay my hands on one of these machines, I'll run the bitch until it's costing me twice what it brings in in coin. Probably longer, as I am well versed in building off grid power systems. If bitcoin becomes widely adopted as a currency or a commodity, it's value will continue to rise, and those "expensive" coins I mined will appreciate in purchasing power long after the miner has ceased to function.

Frankly, if you are not long on bitcoin, you probably should find a different vehicle to invest your time and money on. If you are, and you are not terminally risk averse, this is a fun and potentially VERY profitable game. I have pissed away a lot more money in the past on things that didn't return any money to me, or if it did I just sunk it in the game again. Racing in the mountains for instance... In the late 80's I probably blew through more than 50K (1988 money) in one summer. Some of it was winnings, which I could have used for something more "profitable", but I instead put it back into my car. Over the course of a year, I killed that car. An outside observer would almost certainly say that I gained nothing and made a bad series of decisions with my money. They would be wrong. I had an immense amount of fun, I learned how to do things with four cylinder engines that at the time almost nobody was doing, I learned how to drive at an insane skill level, and did I mention? I had an immense amount of fun.

Would I do it again, given the same circumstances? Even given the perspective of half a lifetime since then?

HELL YES!

Profit is gain, and every man measures his profit by his own criteria. Money is only one score. If money is your only goal, then you probably are not going to be interested in bleeding edge risks. If it's merely part of the score, then you're in the right game. Even from the sidelines, this is exhilarating. I wouldn't miss it for a 20 kilo bar of gold.

[The Avenger]

Plus, mining is fun. Not all profits are tangible. If I find a way to lay my hands on one of these machines, I'll run the bitch until it's costing me twice what it brings in in coin.

Man, you are so full of shit. You haven't invested a penny in asic hardware and you come out with statements like this. You are living in a dream world, with zero skin in the game.

And the fact you can't come up with a few grand to invest suggests you are a loser, with no real business skills, just a lot of talk.

Why don't you sell everything you have and buy some hardware, then we might be able to take a single word you say seriously? Otherwise, take your soap box and fuck off.

[Bargraphics]

And the fact you can't come up with a few grand to invest suggests you are a loser, with no real business skills, just a lot of talk.

Why don't you sell everything you have and buy some hardware.

Tell us more Mr. Businessman.

[markm]

Plus, mining is fun. Not all profits are tangible. If I find a way to lay my hands on one of these machines, I'll run the bitch until it's costing me twice what it brings in in coin.

Man, you are so full of shit. You haven't invested a penny in asic hardware and you come out with statements like this. You are living in a dream world, with zero skin in the game.

And the fact you can't come up with a few grand to invest suggests you are a loser, with no real business skills, just a lot of talk.

Why don't you sell everything you have and buy some hardware, then we might be able to take a single word you say seriously? Otherwise, take your soap box and fuck off.

I think he (Biomech) sounds correct, especially if you pay attention to the part about being long on bitcoin.

He didn't say bullish, he said long.

It even seems possible that he didn't mean he didn't have the number of bitcoins it would have taken to buy a miner but simply that he was not long enough on bitcoin to buy a miner and still be long in bitcoins relative to how long he'd have become in ASICs.

If you have shitloads of bitcoin already, enough that bitcoin going to $1000 a coin isn't going to leave you thinking damn I should have saved just a few more coins instead of playing the mining game, then going long on ASIC tech in addition to staying long on bitcoins sounds not unreasonable at all.

If bitcoin had gone up to $1000 in the last few days instead of not having even reached $500 yet I'd have snapped up another Jupiter most likely, because we are on the get there for real followup wave following the bubble to $266 that happened a while ago. So even up at $500+ I'd expect a crash back down to $266 or below because I expect a bubble up to the next big step or plateau above the $266 previous high-water-mark first before a get there (the next big step above $266) for real wave. So somewhere up here above $266 I am going to be thinking hey we are into the next bubble already instead of merely being up at the got there ($266) for real plateau signaled long ago by the $266 bubble. Maybe the next bubble is coming so soon after climbing back to $266 because it took so long for the climb back, or something.

So maybe at around $500 I will buy a Jupiter rather than find myself regretting not having done so when the bubble crashes back to $266, maybe momentarily even below that, then settles at around $266 or somewhere above that. But settle at $500? I doubt that, a bubble all the way to $1000+ without stopping at $500 seems more likely based on previous bubble activity. Still maybe crashing all the way back to $266 or even momentarily below. So I am kind of thinking the top of the bubble is the moment to go long ASIC while bitcoins still buy a lot of ASIC... Others maybe had thought aha we are at the $266+ plateau, might as well buy now, its going to hover here for gosh knows how long before the next bubble, thus already snapped up a november jupiter in last few days maybe before noticing hey another bubble might be here already lets see how high it goes before snapping up some more ASIC.

Remember, holding bitcoins and mining are both wild exciting rides, so I'd not take his car story as implying throw all your bitcoins into mining gear but rather as throw all your fiat into getting long on bitcoins and if you have money left over go long mining gear too for the sheer heck of it if buying a rig or few won't be a big bite out of your bitcoin long-ness. (Heck it is what percent of your bitcoin to buy a rig or few? Why have shitloads of bitcoins if not to enjoy spending some when they peak in exchange rate? What would be more fun to spend a few on than a rally car or a mining rig?)

-MarkM-

[kendog77]

If BTC hits $500 within the next week or two, and Knc is still taking November orders, I'll probably put some BTC towards another Jupiter as well.

I wonder when Knc will cut off November orders?

It's also plausible that they are manufacturing November orders right now and simply holding back shipment until the 15th. We could see a lot of hashing power hit the network in the third week of November.

[The Avenger]

-MarkM-

If he wants to talk fantasy or strategy, there are plenty of other places on the forum for that.

He plague's this thread on a daily basis with his fantasy and judgments - take it somewhere else. It's got nothing to do with custom hardware. Only the fact that he's got a boner for something he can't afford.