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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918577 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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February 12, 2025, 02:30:31 AM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1)

Hahaha

well eth still needs to go under 2k this month cause mr v sucks.
I am not excited about shitcoins, but there is some pleasure in seeing them dumping... and I tend to look at shitcoins in terms of their BTC price, so for the past 5 years, I kept thinking that it would be best if ETH would return to going below 0.02 BTC, and even better if it goes below 0.01 BTC.  Of course, shitcoins are not going to die completely, but that scam of a shitcoin really did get quite a bit of traction in terms of shamming a lot of folks into believing that it had value beyond a bunch of convoluted mumbo jumbo platform upon which other shitcoins could be built.  I am not technical enough to know the extent to which some of their technology might have ended up being ported over to bitcoin in order that there might have been some value beyond just fleecing retail in a variety of ways.
It had some value as a pow it is now essentially worthless with the switch it made to pos.  Basically all pos are next to worthless as they are clonable. POW IS OKAY IF THE ALGORITHM  has a ton of gear mining . Meaning Sha256 and scrypt the rest are meh.

There are not a lot of coins with any value. As eth is showing. YOU can simply make a knock off like solana which essentially can do what eth can better.
I still don’t know what Vitalik was thinking going to PoS. Solana really does everything Ethereum does but better now. It’s almost scary how younger users are almost exclusively being onboarded to Solana. It was a chain I wanted to see die, but now I’m mad I didn’t grab a bag at $8. If Bitcoin is the store of value, it seems Solana is setting up to be the peer to peer currency.
let's talk about that after the next two cycles again...
I'm not trying to come across as pro-Solana or anything.  I have like 0.005% of my crypto portfolio invested in it and mostly because I actually use it in person with friends who don't like Bitcoin and don't want to try and use it as a currency due to high fees (which aren't so high anymore but it isn't like they watch the mempool).  

You sound like you are just making shit up - not that any of should want to talk about how it might be so much easier to transact peer to peer on Solana.. supposedly and that supposedly people want to do that.  Sounds like nonsense to me, not that I am  even interested in your potentially retarded friends, which would include you if you are talking to them about transacting on Solana rather than figuring out some bitcoin ways to transact.

It's something I've observed.  When in my own personal life I have people who want Solana, but aren't interested in Bitcoin, it feels like a shift has happened.  Will it last?  Who knows.  

That sounds like bullshit, to the extent any of us care in this thread... You make some stupid ass statement about Solana trying to be a transaction layer, and then now you want to double down on your bullshit fantasy as if it were something that actually is happening in the real world.

This isn't a new development either.  Last cycle was the same way.  Solana may die and I wouldn't shed a tear.  However, I think with ETFs being launched these days and newbies being onboarded onto things like SOL & XRP,

Oh gawd..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes now you are going to tell us about XRP..? Horey sheit.. .Bawb.. do you have any more of those pipe thingies?  Where has bawb been when "we" (royal perhaps?) need him?

we may see alts stick around longer than in the past.  I guess we'll see in 2 more cycles, but honestly, I don't care either way.  

Of course, there are always going to be shitcoins, and yeah if you choose to get distracted by them and/or talk about them as if they were meaningful (or on topic) in this thread, then you are the one making the choice to go down that dumbass road.

I'd prefer new users were being onboarded onto Bitcoin,

At least you are not completely lost (perhaps?)

but outside of store of value, it can't really compete to those who only see the end user experience and don't care how the sausage is made.

In other words, you love bitcoin, but how about these shitcoins, aren't they really something to consider?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  Maybe I take my statement back about your not being completely lost?



I don't care what people think about Trump, tariffs, Greenland, Panama canal ore turning Gaza into a lavish riviera of the Middle-East.

Only thing i want is that Trump keeps his word and start a Bitcoin reserve that will pump the coin to $300,000 within 8 months.
Once it's done, bitcoin would always be at a risk that next admin will sell it all, hence a large risk premium.
Albeit, I still like to "taste" that sweet 300K this cycle and not the next one  Grin.

Fair enough.  Why not $300k today? rather than tomorrow?.. not a bad point

All you get from shitcoins is already available, or in the making, on Bitcoin (Lightning, Taproot etc ).. there will be no need for more base ledgers than one in the coming future..
Most noobs don't understand that... I have seen many learn it the hard way by loosing money.
I hate that I’m forced to take the anti-Bitcoin position on this thread at times, but the Lightning network is absolute garbage that nobody wants to use. Especially not people who are new to crypto. Maybe that will change in the future but I’ve been more active than most people in this hobby of ours and I have yet to ever encounter a situation when I needed to use the Lightning network,

You might have to actually use it rather than just proclaiming it to be "absolute garbage."  I doubt you have as much experiences as you are claiming, if you consider lightning network to be "absolute garbage."

whereas I’ve come across many situations where my only option was to use ETH, SOL, or POL. I don’t acquire these coins to speculate.

To the extent that you might not be just making shit up, are you transacting on a custodian with those shitcoins? or directly on their layer 1?  Did you consider or look into means to transact with bitcoin with those same people? or you just getting distracted into shitcoins?

I will admit that I have had some transactions with folks who wanted to transact using Tether and/or to use litecoin, even though I have been trying to push for preferences to transact directly on bitcoin, yet sure I understand that sometimes bitcoin's fees have been high, but they have not been lately, and lighting tends to be pretty good, but there were some forced channel closings at times along the way too.

I have been forced to acquire these coins in order to complete a task because no other options were available to complete said task. That being said, Bitcoin is still my number 1 choice for everything and if it is ever possible to use it, I do.

I have found that there have ONLY been narrow windows in which bitcoin have been difficult, and some transactions might not need to go through right away.  Other times with lighting network there has to be some situations in which the person need to already be set up, since sometimes  there may be more difficulties and expenses to set up channels, but then once the channels are set up then it will tend to be easier, and surely there can be some fall back of using lightning on Cash App which is less preferable.  I have Cash App, Breez and Phoenix, and I am pretty sure there could be some other ways (apps) to transact on lighting too, but those are the only ones that I recall using in recent times...even though there are some others.,.like I had used it on Bluewallet too, but then they took away their node, so I have to set up my own node, which I am not opposed to doing if i can figure it out on a device that I have.... but I have not gotten around to it.. and surely none of  us should have to run a node to have to be able to use lightning.... yet there are options out there with lightning wallets, and I surely don't know all of them (or maybe I don't even know very many of them besides what I listed)..

Is there anybody out there, besides Buddy and yours truly?
is it fuck you JJG thursday yet?

Probably not yet, since days of the week are somewhat universal around the world, yet I am so glad that you are proposing a remembrance of such an oft-missed occasion.. It is almost like a long lost holiday..

[edited out]
11           pushups                40           bitcointalk
12            stairs    4     random stairwells all over the world
American Football has not even made the top 10.  Bery bery interesting.

Very generous of you, vapourminer, to do some further looking into the matter and to include pushups in the extended list.
~snip
Bery, bery interesting indeed which is why I did more digging as I had heard that the NFL had the most lucrative sports franchises in the world and how could that be if it wasn't in the top 10?! ......

Yeah, but pushups?     Where is the pushups?

You come off as biased.   Angry Angry Angry
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February 12, 2025, 03:03:32 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

~snip

Yeah, but pushups?     Where is the pushups?

You come off as biased.   Angry Angry Angry

 Well you know how tight-lipped anyone on the WO is about their hodlenings; there was no way to assay the bitcoins in play as we push-upped our way to 100k.
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February 12, 2025, 04:01:16 AM


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February 12, 2025, 04:44:05 AM
Merited by JimboToronto (1)

So much hate for President Musk and First Orange Man, it's disgusting.
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February 12, 2025, 04:49:41 AM


 Bery, bery interesting indeed which is why I did more digging as I had heard that the NFL had the most lucrative sports franchises in the world and how could that be if it wasn't in the top 10?!  I had to find out for myself if this was the "American" world or the actual world.  So, I copied some data from here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue, (it's supposed to contain the currently available data) copied data from all entries entitled "Association Football" and "American Football" (sorted by revenue), removed some extraneous data and then put them in a BBcode table... hopefully I didn't mess up the data too much.  You'll have to take my word if you don't want to do the math but all of the other top earners that are Football but aren't "American" Football add up to 17815 (€ mil) and I find it utterly mind-blowing that the NFL outdoes that with 19299 (€ mil) thereby dominating the #1 spot.


RankLeagueSportCountry(ies)SeasonTier LevelTeams MatchesRevenueRev. / teamRev. / match
--------(€ mil)(€ mil)(€ tdou­sands)
1National Football League (NFL)American football United States2023 1322851929960367716
4Premier League (PL)Association football England2022–23 120380710035518684
6Campeonato Nacional de Liga de Primera División (La Liga)Association football Spain2022–23 120380524026213789
14English Football League Championship (EFL Championship)Association football England2021–22 224557106044.11903
172. Fußball-Bundesliga (2. Bundesliga)Association football Germany2022–23 218306785.743.72567
20EredivisieAssociation football Netderlands2021–22 11831262934.92016
22J1 LeagueAssociation football Japan2023 118306564.731.31845
33Championnat de France de football de Ligue 2 (Ligue 2)Association football France2022–23 22038042321.151113
35Scottish Premiership (SPFL)Association football Scotland2021–22 11225831326.11213
45Lega Italiana Calcio Professionistico (Serie C)Association football Italy2022–23 3601187216.23.6182
50English Football League Two (EFL League Two)Association football England2021–22 4245571707305
52EliteserienAssociation football Norway2022 11624016110671
54Super League GreeceAssociation football Greece2021–22 11424015911.3663
60Israeli Premier LeagueAssociation football Israel2021–22 1142401389.8575
63Ukrainian Premier League (UPL)Association football Ukraine2021–22 1161431187.3825
65Saudi Professional League (SPL)Association football Saudi Arabia2022–23 116240111.16.9463
68Categoría Primera AAssociation football Colombia2022 1204511025.1226
76Liga IAssociation football Romania2021–22 116316905.6285
81Kazakhstan Premier LeagueAssociation football Kazakhstan2022 114182705385
90Championnat NationalAssociation football France2019–20 31822357.43.2257
91Women's Super League (WSL)Association football England2022–23 11213256.64.7429
92Chilean Primera DivisiónAssociation football Chile2023 11624055.33.4230
94South African Premier DivisionAssociation football South Africa2019–20 11624053.43.3222
98I liga polskaAssociation football Poland2022–23 21830943.52.4141
102SuperettanAssociation football Sweden2020 21624039.12.4163
105VeikkausliigaAssociation football Finland2022 112167332.7198
111League of Ireland Premier DivisionAssociation football Ireland2022 110180262.6144

 

Correct source, copied incorrectly (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue):

NFL-yes, 19,929 mil euro

Then:

Premier League (England) 7100
La Liga (Spain) 5240
Bundesliga (Germany) 4452 (not your low number)
Seria A (Italy) 3618
Ligue 1 (France) 2378
MLS (USA) 2233
Braziliero seria A (Brazil) 1705
Japan 1506
India 1087
English Footbal league championship (second division) 1060
Russia 1050
smaller leagues-in the billions too.

Bottom line: 5 european majors-22788, which is > than 19929
If you add worldwide, more than 33 bil.

Than said, NFL revenue is impressive...not surprising with $100 for a salad and $60 for a beer in the stands Wink


 Thanks for checking me!  I just repeated my method and for some reason when I import the data into LibreCalc, it messes up some entries in the "Sports" field which is what I sorted on.  I can see when I repeat it that many entries are missing which I could have detected by simply taking a look.   Man, that was terrible... my apologies to everyone!
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February 12, 2025, 06:34:24 AM

I have been forced to acquire these coins in order to complete a task because no other options were available to complete said task. That being said, Bitcoin is still my number 1 choice for everything and if it is ever possible to use it, I do.
The main issues are not which coin to buy and which to use as an alternative to Bitcoin. Only BTC is put on everyone's first list of favourites. Although there are many aspects to consider in the first list, no matter how many coins come into the crypto world, the most important one is Bitcoin. It is not only you; everyone puts Bitcoin first on their favourite list. There is no other important coin in the crypto world except Bitcoin. If you think about all the different coins except Bitcoin, all the coins seem worthless to me.
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February 12, 2025, 06:50:13 AM

All you get from shitcoins is already available, or in the making, on Bitcoin (Lightning, Taproot etc ).. there will be no need for more base ledgers than one in the coming future..
Most noobs don't understand that... I have seen many learn it the hard way by loosing money.

I hate that I’m forced to take the anti-Bitcoin position on this thread at times, but the Lightning network is absolute garbage that nobody wants to use. Especially not people who are new to crypto. Maybe that will change in the future but I’ve been more active than most people in this hobby of ours and I have yet to ever encounter a situation when I needed to use the Lightning network, whereas I’ve come across many situations where my only option was to use ETH, SOL, or POL. I don’t acquire these coins to speculate. I have been forced to acquire these coins in order to complete a task because no other options were available to complete said task. That being said, Bitcoin is still my number 1 choice for everything and if it is ever possible to use it, I do.

That's totally understandable. There are functions that other coins still perform better than Bitcoin.
And I also see lightning being still in its infancy, and that it might well be replaced by some other second layer in the future. 

My issue was with your original post when you implied that Lolana might be setting up get to the same level as Bitcoin by taking over the peer to peer payments side of things, while Bitcoins acts as the store of value.

There might be a small chance for Lolana to do that - indefinitely small chance though, when I check every shitcoin's performance within the last 10+ years.
You made it sound a bit too likely imo. Many noobs reading your post might take that kind of probability seriously and give the Lolana devs their money instead of putting it into something that has indeed a very high probability to take over a substantial part of the worldwide economic value..


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February 12, 2025, 07:08:14 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

SOMA I bet on sideways, dancing around 100k until fall, then...

That is a pretty long time for sideways (Fall would be like August? or September?).  I am not sure if dee cornz does sideways upon command, like that.
badger taught me patience...

so what's your bet for when we leave 100k for good.  (apart from a future bear market dump that might take us there again)

Sure, I make various random statements in regards to what I expect, but it is not like I am wedded to too many specifics.  I have not even recently provided any kind of upside percentage that would hopefully have more upside than the one I did December 16, 2021.

In other words, how can I bet on anything when I am such a waffler.. and  largely I am just criticizing your vague assertion of supposed consolidation until August/September-ish, even though it might happen... sure.

On my own behalf, I have made some claims from time to time, such as in March/April/May-ish I was proclaiming that I expected $120k to $180k prior to the end of 2024 and then some higher ATH in 2025.  My first part did not come true, so how am I supposed to come up with something else off the cuff? I am still somewhat sticking with that, even though I don't have any kind of a timeline, but  I would expect a bounce into that range and then consolidation in that range and then a further UPPity, and then some kind of a correction, but then the amount of UPpity of either of the potential UPpity legs depends on what happens within the leg, and then the amount of the downity (ie bear market, if any) depends partly on the extent that any blow off top might end up playing out, which a blow off top is not out of the cards, but it is far from guaranteed, also.

I also mentioned several times, starting around March 2024, that I don't expect the BTC spot price to go lower than 25% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, and so far I have been correct on that prediction, and currently, as I type this post, the 200-WMA is $44k, so $55k is 25% above it, currently.

In the past three-ish months, I had mentioned several times that I expected supra $115k before sub $85k, but I have not even been much greater than 50/50 on that.

I understand that BTC prices can shoot up or down at any time, and surely I would expect any downity to last very long, yet is it is still interesting that we have not had any new ATH  since the trump inauguration...so I am not sure if the Market needs some pro-bitcoin happenings to pump more, even though there has been a lot of talk (legislative proposals) around quasi-bitcoin reserves that have quite a bit of distraction stable coin talking points (AKa privatized  CBDCs).. .. ..so not a lot of hope around some of the dancing around on these matters, even though surely bitcoin does not really need various governments to pump our bags.. but at the same time, it would be nice to have less hostility in regards to bitcoin, yet the pumping of shitcoins and various other quasi-bitcoin adjacent digital assets are almost the same as an attack on bitcoin, even though from more subliminal directions -

So yeah, indirect attacks on self-custody and desires to control and/or trace bitcoiners...which still does not mean that our bags might not be able to pump - even though some of the folks who are engaged in subliminal attacks against bitcoin may not want to kill or debilitate the golden goose, but they seem to be unable to figure out ways to balance out that retail are not holding bitcoin in self-sovereign kinds of ways, so there are ongoing efforts to extract coins from normies like you, me and others who  have been holding coins longer, and sure some of us are not giving up more coins without more price appreciation...  but still the punchline is I don't really know how short-term BTC price dynamics plays out, even though it seems a bit of  wishful thinking that dee cornz would stay in some kind of a $85k to $115k range between now and August/September-ish as you seem to be anticipating, even if you might end up being correct in your guess about a stable bitcoin  that I doubt really exists, since we have a bit of a war going on underneath all of this and whether the BTC price has to go up before down  or down before up, I claim to not know.

making me read so much without answering my question of when you see BTC leaving the 100k range to the upside, I feel abused  Cheesy

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February 12, 2025, 07:24:05 AM

So much hate for President Musk and First Orange Man, it's disgusting.

It's actually a good thing that Elon's in charge. Donny boy is such a bumbling incompetent at running things that he managed to turn an almost half billion dollar inheritance from his grandfather's brothels and father's slumlord holdings into a multi-billion dollar debt. Imagine if the Dumpster was actually in charge?

https://forward.com/fast-forward/424037/ivanka-trump-president-trump-samantha-bee-debt/

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February 12, 2025, 07:43:53 AM
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So much hate for President Musk and First Orange Man, it's disgusting.

It's actually a good thing that Elon's in charge. Donny boy is such a bumbling incompetent at running things that he managed to turn an almost half billion dollar inheritance from his grandfather's brothels and father's slumlord holdings into a multi-billion dollar debt. Imagine if the Dumpster was actually in charge?

https://forward.com/fast-forward/424037/ivanka-trump-president-trump-samantha-bee-debt/

 Grin

Picking the right co-worker is a talent as well ...
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Picking the right co-worker is a talent as well ...

Indeed, but he hasn't done a very good job at that.

His cabinet has been filled mostly with Fox News personalities and others with no experience in the fields he's assigned them to. Most were chosen for loyalty to him personally. Musk is the only one even close to competent and some people wonder about his long-term motives.
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February 12, 2025, 08:42:30 AM
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Picking the right co-worker is a talent as well ...

Indeed, but he hasn't done a very good job at that.

His cabinet has been filled mostly with Fox News personalities and others with no experience in the fields he's assigned them to. Most were chosen for loyalty to him personally. Musk is the only one even close to competent and some people wonder about his long-term motives.

Just listen to his (higher level) ex-employees.
Him and Donald are the perfect narcissistic couple.
Americans gonna learn their lesson the hard way (again?).
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February 12, 2025, 09:15:08 AM

So much hate for President Musk and First Orange Man, it's disgusting.

It's actually a good thing that Elon's in charge. Donny boy is such a bumbling incompetent at running things that he managed to turn an almost half billion dollar inheritance from his grandfather's brothels and father's slumlord holdings into a multi-billion dollar debt. Imagine if the Dumpster was actually in charge?

https://forward.com/fast-forward/424037/ivanka-trump-president-trump-samantha-bee-debt/

 Grin
Both are disrupters and if you don't have any skin in the game then it's fun to witness all the shenanigans. Even, Netflix won't provide such entertainment. 

I reckon the fallout between them would be something as both of them are egoistic individuals with an Alpha mentality. Happy about what they are doing with USAID tho. In the name of aid previous regime was fucking up everything around the world.
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February 12, 2025, 09:50:55 AM
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Picking the right co-worker is a talent as well ...

Indeed, but he hasn't done a very good job at that.

His cabinet has been filled mostly with Fox News personalities and others with no experience in the fields he's assigned them to. Most were chosen for loyalty to him personally. Musk is the only one even close to competent and some people wonder about his long-term motives.

Just listen to his (higher level) ex-employees.
Him and Donald are the perfect narcissistic couple.
Americans gonna learn their lesson the hard way (again?).

the Dems tanked the election by having far too many leaders allowing illegal immigration.

How would you like to be with 33 people on a ship all the time and 2 of them snuck in and were trespassing.

well 20 million of 330 million don't belong on ship USA they snuck in.

It hurts all legal immigrants if they have an accent people suspect them of being an illegal.

So this really was a huge issue as most people I know left or right Repub or Dem do not like the illegal issue.

And eggs at 7 dollars a dozen do not help the issue.
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