Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[WatChe]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness hisslyness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness @hisslyness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!

$90,000USD Breched on BitStamp

WatChe You have lost the bet, please PM JJG to settle the wager!

Ohh shit!.. just had a flash crash down to $87,629!!!

Accepted. 

Waiting for JJG to come and decide how he want to settle that.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Did you sell some coins this cycle? If not, keep calm, LFC indicator always works for me...  

I sold a handful the first time we crossed 90k at a 91.2k average

That is what I see as protection from disaster money. The real money, I am hoping will be extracted > 120k this cycle.

I always have a couple of panic times in each bull run

Hopefully this correction is over soon and we resume uppity.

[somac.]

Could be worse you know.

We could all be shitcoiners. They look like... well... shit.

[Ambatman]

See y'all in March next Month.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Next pump will rocket Bitcoin to $150k - $200k range.

$50k mega dump followed with a liquidation wick like today.

Glorious FOMO pump starts to $250k - $300k.

● Sell Here ●

Soul crushing bear market starts.

● Buy Back ●

New bull martket start to $ 1million BTC

[OutOfMemory]

I have the feeling, already for some days now, that a $93k retest is on the menu.

We already been there, and done that.

In other words, prices touched upon $93,833 about 3 hours ago (at the time of this post).

Thanks, i totally missed that, because i only had a glance at ChartBuddy's numbers while scrolling down reading.
I still think there's a good chance to go really close to or momentarily below $93.000, a little moar deep than on Feb 18th.
If not, why not?!   Either way would just go by emotionless for me.
Not the most bad thing $93k flat won't be touched at all and we already are looking back at the mentionen re-testing in the future.

So, in front of another screen (namely the one i'm looking at, right now) i accidentally (because touchpad) clicked on a page number above the currently last page, and ChartBuddy's was popping at me with $91.xxx in red. I was really startled for a sec  
EDIT: I forgot to mention that there is much liquidity at $92.xxx figures, so breaking $93k would be unsurprising to me. Breaking $91 would be rude, but the odds are bad (SOMA).

I hardly ever have confidence in figuring out how far any short-term price corrections will go, or whether they will have one, two or three legs downward before returning back up.  Our price corrections from current times seem quite a bit less severe than previous times, (referring to prior to late 2023.. or maybe even this whole bull run from November 2022 until present, we have not really been having too many severe price corrections, as had  been seeming to take place more frequently in previous times (prior to 2023)..

My assumption is that the market is milked more cautiously, and in the past we had good buying volume, which is slowly decreasing. Fresh money needed.
That may also play a role in printing the actual leg down, where $91k-$92k formed a big (long) liquidation zone, which are seemingly targeted more often recently. Smart money refined its strategies, so it seems.

The seeming change in the severity of BTC price corrections is still not going to get me to presume that severe price corrections (such as greater than 30%) won't happen, and since we have been mostly been staying above $90k since mid-November, I am not even going to presume that sub $90k is not probable to be breached - even though sometimes there are likely forces wanting to flesh out as many weak hands as they are able to flesh out, yet I would have had presumed the weak hands to have had already been fleshed out and we would be ready to break into the $120k to $180k range, which also does not even mean that we might not correct back down to $100k and/or below $100k.

Agree. And the current correction is a good example, which is not far from 30% down at the time of writing.

At the same time, there shouldn't be any reasons for any of the relatively longer term bitcoiners (what is a longer term bitcoiner these days?  greater than 1.5 cycles?.. that would be prior to 2019) to be concerned about any of these matters, even though surely there are some of us who are getting anxious to cash out some coins, but not wanting to cash out any significant amounts of coin around $100k or even below $100k.. like some newbie fixated on round numbers.

Nothing to add here, except that longer term is assumed to be >1y, which i don't quite agree with, because the timeframe of "longer terms" is slowly expanding, but "shorter terms" (<1y) are not, nor are they getting shorter. This needs a differentiated view, imho. My personal "longer term" definition is >=2 cycles, which is not far from yours.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[CistaCista]

and as I type the us russia and china could be shifting into an axis of power.

Hey waddayaknow, US Russia and China just combined their votes to go against the free world in the UN Security Council last night.

[aesma]

I'm poor argh !

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[serveria.com]

Nice green candle is currently taking us back above $90k (hopefully). What I like about dumps in cycle's top years - they are short-lived. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Leahized]

Nice green candle is currently taking us back above $90k (hopefully). What I like about dumps in cycle's top years - they are short-lived.  

Good time to come ahead, it can be February March. But looking at ChartBuddy seems difficult.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[laspol65]

JUST IN: 🇯🇵 Japanese public company Metaplanet buys 135 #Bitcoin for ¥1.9 billion.
Source link



metaplanet is a Japanese company they are trying to buy bitcoin regularly. They bought a total of 2235 bitcoins and will hold it for a long time. 
I think their bitcoin purchases should not be missed, regular bitcoin purchases will make them widely known as a great investment company.

[philipma1957]

cheap corn 🌽

i got some as low as 87k actually got a piece at 86.7k

[goldkingcoiner]

Ah shit. Didn't even reach my 84.7K stop buy. I got too greedy. Oh well. 89K is still a bargain.

Over 7% is quite a drop. :/

[philipma1957]

Ah shit. Didn't even reach my 84.7K stop buy. I got too greedy. Oh well. 89K is still a bargain.

Over 7% is quite a drop. :/

I laddered downwards.

92k right down to 86.7k

I think I got 12 pieces yesterday and today.

I need to add it up 🆙.