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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918224 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
OutOfMemory
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February 28, 2025, 07:35:32 AM

Is it "Friday For Futures" again?  Roll Eyes
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February 28, 2025, 07:36:03 AM

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie

...correction...1.5 free ...for now.

Here is a little theory: since bull market was shorter and meeker than expected, bear market would also be shorter than expected.
"wham, bam, thank you ma'am".
WBTYM


Ok, so not 4 years of pain and misery but merely 3.5? I'm relieved...   Grin
somac.
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February 28, 2025, 07:51:51 AM

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie

...correction...1.5 free ...for now.

Here is a little theory: since bull market was shorter and meeker than expected, bear market would also be shorter than expected.
"wham, bam, thank you ma'am".
WBTYM


If that was the cycle top, it was lower than the last one, which probably means the next will be lower than this one. Therefore, next cycle target price would be about 130k maybe. That doesn't sound likely IMO so at this juncture I don't believe we have hit the cycle top yet. A shorter bear market could just mean this is a correction in the bull market.

Of course, I'm usually wrong so this is probably the start of an 80% correction and we'll be back in the $20ks by mid summer.

109 is > than 69K, not sure what you are referring to. A % increase?
If macro factors trump cycles, next peak would be unpredictable, ain't it?
whether it is a correction or a mini-bear depends on duration. In 2017 corrections were very deep, but lasted only a short time.
Let's see what happens here.


Yeah I mean each cycle (so far) ATH from the cycle low is less and less in percentage terms.

What time frame would you consider a mini-bear, 2013 sort of thing?
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February 28, 2025, 07:55:37 AM
Last edit: February 28, 2025, 08:10:50 AM by Paashaas
Merited by darkangel11 (1), somac. (1)

U.S Bitcoin strategic reserve bills taking healthy progress in states like Arizona and Taxas.

Only a matter of time when they and other states start buying making it a bullish market again.

They nuked the market to buy in cheap.
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February 28, 2025, 07:56:42 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Btw

Are the all time low of btc on exchanges in the room with us?

Haha, that was always a joke I think. The on-chain people can't identify the exchange addresses correctly. Also, it takes 10 minutes to load an exchange with fresh coins again anyway, so really, how relevant is it.
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February 28, 2025, 08:00:25 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (8), AlcoHoDL (1), Rabata (1), Leahized (1)

When she goes up, I try to figure out if, when, how much to sell. That requires a lot of energy and makes me weary.

I still like it a lot more when she goes up though. Go figure.
On the topic of cheap dinners, another good addition to the rotation is plain pasta with soup powder sprinkles its way more satisfying than ramen with an egg and cheaper too! When ya get that one piece of pasta with extra sprinkles its like scooping out the last bit flavour dust from a bag of chips.

@greyhats.. same here. i dont really pay attention to dips,  even this one. and uppidy requires actual planning beyond ladders on exchanges.
I think both of you are onto something, I definitely do more planning when we are in uppity. I do absolutely love uppity from a monetary perspective but maybe i should layoff all the extra dreaming/planning stuff in uppity to see if that keeps me a bit more sane.

Cheers all, now time to go back to being odd :-)

It is up to you whether you believe that you have overdone the planning, yet I bet that it feels good to have your various scenarios plotted out, and then you don't really have to think about them, because you can see various scenarios that you have plotted out, and perhaps sometimes you will be  beating yourself up because you had found that one of your minority scenarios ended up playing out rather than what you had considered to be one of your base case scenarios. but so what?  You still got the therapy of working out the scenarios.. and then perhaps after you had gone into detail several times, you might well end up learning that you feel a whole hell of a lot better if you do not go into so much detail, so you can still accomplish a lot of the plotting out of scenarios, but to leave your various scenarios more loosely outlined rather than overly specific, and then perhaps you end up getting less attached to whether your more base case scenarios end up playing out or not, since you have already prepared yourself for variations of UP, DOWN and sideways, so largely in the end, the main point is that you are largely prepared for any of the scenarios, so it ends up not even being super important to the extent that you end up being correct, even though surely many of us, even the longer terms HODLers, are still going to be somewhat agitated when one of our 5% to 12% scenarios ends up playing out rather than one of our 35%-ish scenarios.

I think that part of your personality drives you to plot out the scenarios, and you likely are already realizing that you have largely already done most of the work, so that a lot of this is becoming easier and easier, even if you are still feeling some stress from some of our seemingly extreme BTC price moves.  I can remember several of mine, and I was buying at several points on the way down, then I was starting to get stressed because the BTC price had corrected 30% or more, and then I was running out of money to buy more, so then part of my stress was that I just had to wait through the rest of the dip because I had no more money, and the best that  I might be able to do is to have the dip last long enough for  some  payment to come in, otherwise, I was feeling  stress that I had to wait it out.. yet then the more that I was in bitcoin, the more I learned how to keep more cash available so I would not have those kinds of stresses, and sure it still happens from time to time, but surely not as bad in 2025 as compared to some of the ones I had in 2017 and/or even at other later points.  My systems got better. even though the stress never completely went away.

What if Bitcoin has made me entirely insane...

I suppose there should be question marks at the end there.  But nope.
I am crazy as fuck... treat me as such.  I think most of you already do.

Also...
SUPERCYCLE

You kind of remind me of this guy.  Need I 'splain further, steveSteve is that uie-pooie?


I am thinking the under current market conditions "the pain zone" would start right around $65k or lower.  .. But, yeah, sure.. I am not unsympathetic to differing opinions, and  surely I do not like or appreciate BTC price drops, yet I believe that I can still appreciate that "the pain zone" happens at different price points for different folks.

So many liquidations… This isn’t how the FTX dispersal was supposed to go… Seeing lower and lower prices on lowering volume.

Lucky fucks.. for those under $50k recipients being in a position to receive their dispersement with an opportunity to buy on the dip.  Lucky fucks, lucky fucks.

Not a good sign.

Does not seem unusual to me. BTC prices dip from time to time and sometimes in unexpected ways.  Are you new here or something?

This price action can only be described as panic selling and cascading liquidations.

Perhaps, which also known at the trend is your friend.. .and perhaps not your friend if it is going opposite to the direction you would  have had wanted (and/or expected). 

This is either the end of the bull run, or we’re about to see the mother of bounces. Trying to keep my faith in the cycle but this is painful.

I speculate that we probably would need to get into the sub $55k-ish arenas before we might start to consider that this here particular bull run is over... but, hey, what do I know?  I am just a random wall observing normie with an opinion.

Oh god im going to...  
Whooo let's just stop it there.

I bought my first bitcoin at $17.
It had fallen from a high of 32 or so.

I watched it fall to $1.50ish?
At $2...  I thought about selling my Subaru to buy a couple thousand more.

I didn't.
      Sigh.
Here's the thing for those that are new. It does this. It's done it many times. It jumps up, and then it fades back down to fill that gap, and then it jumps up again. Even more, you'll be okay. Hang tight.

I was not around these here corn parts for the drop from $32 to $1.50... even though I can imagine and I can still largely agree that dee cornz does dooo deez kinds of thingies.  So even with my less maturity in cornz observations, I will sheepishly agree and sheepishly add that dee cornz might fill the gap, and it might not fill such perceived gappenings.. .

While in the process of potentially working to fill such arguable gappening, we cannot really know, even though currently it is appearing that a whole hell of a lot of DOWNity momentum is oongoingly continuing.. ..and continuing until morale improves... or not.

Also. 71-73.7 is going to hold if we go that deep.

Well it should.

I hope.



I don't wish him bad, but I always thought that bitcoin leverage is a bad idea, generally speaking.

EDIT: I hope that he does not sell his kidney...but who knows, maybe he will sell some of his AAPL, FB, AMZN, MSFT, perhaps.
How about it, MS?

EDIT2: Texas moves toward establishing a Bitcoin reserve (it is not strictly bitcoin, but a $500bil market cap requirement assures that only bitcoin qualifies, at least for now)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbirnbaum/2025/02/27/texas-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-advances-amid-market-volatility/

I personally think that Saylor should be talking about continuing to buy rather than not selling, including his own practices to continue buying, even though historically he has not really promoted himself and/or his company as specializing in the buying of dips.

CME gap at $75k.

$10k dump incoming?  Undecided
Looks like it will dump even more towards that gap.
I had a dream last night, more like a nightmare  Huh it showed BTC around 50k range. Maybe I am overthinking. But today morning watching Indian markets (down ~ 1.24%) gave some strong indication of bears.

Yeah.. $50k does seem like a bit of an exaggeration, yet dreams (nightmares) can frequently contain those kinds of extreme presentations.

That $7xxxx price is painful to observe...

Remember back in 2017 we started talking about scarcity... in a nutshell, the concept was "soonish BTC will become so rare and expensive to mine, mining rewards will drop with the halving etc". Today, 8 years later, we witness a roughly 25% drop and no signs of scarcity? So when will it kick in? Taking into account inflation, I'm "moar poorer" today than I was 4 years ago during the previous cycle's top... no eggs in my ramen today....

Anyway, enough whining, the blood is in the streets so, we're likely going to reverse soon...  Cool

Does sound a wee bit whiny... especially since it seems to me that you must be doing something wrong if you are saying that you are more poor today as compared to 2017 (inflation adjusted or whatever.. bitcoin no give no shits about inflation and/or the debasement of the dollar which is part of the reason that many of us are putting value into this here lil tingilie called dee cornz), and even going by your forum registration date, you just got here during the later portions of the 2017 run, to the extent that you might have had started to buy BTC in 2017, yet even if you did not blow your whole wadd in the peak of 2017, you would have had 2018, 2019 and  2020 to accumulate bitcoin.. Holy fucking shit, there would have been, and should have had been opportunities to stack some sats in the past nearly 8 years, even if you had front-loaded your BTC investment in BTC at some point in late 2017.

So for example, if you had invested $100 per week into bitcoin starting from your forum registration date, you would have had invested nearly $40k, and accumulated nearly 3 BTC.    Yet you could have accumulated an additional 7 BTC or so, if you had been able to front load your investment into BTC with another $40k somewhere towards the beginning of the time that you came to the forum.  So that could have had been 10 BTC with $80k invested (those are mindrust amounts of BTC) .. and surely would not be a bad place to be and even should have had put you better off today as compared to BTC, especially if you had been able to focus on BTC, even if your dollar availability amounts might have had been different than the amounts I outlined as a possible budget.

What was the bottom meant to be? $75k? Need to know when I should give up focusing on Bitcoin for another year or 2? lol

Probably, ou can wait until mid-2025 or perhaps as late as mid-2026 before you can start focusing on waiting for 1-2 years.. In other words, your desire to wait for 1-2 years seems to be way too damned early.. but hey whatever, you do you... you negative nancy wannabe.  Angry Angry Angry     Tongue

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie
...correction...1.5 free ...for now.

Here is a little theory: since bull market was shorter and meeker than expected, bear market would also be shorter than expected.
"wham, bam, thank you ma'am".
WBTYM

I don't think so, but we could maybe formulate a bet on such topic.

[edited out]
If that was the cycle top, it was lower than the last one, which probably means the next will be lower than this one. Therefore, next cycle target price would be about 130k maybe. That doesn't sound likely IMO so at this juncture I don't believe we have hit the cycle top yet. A shorter bear market could just mean this is a correction in the bull market.

Of course, I'm usually wrong so this is probably the start of an 80% correction and we'll be back in the $20ks by mid summer.

You go somac!!!

Talk yourself into such a bearish perspective.

Btw

Are the all time low of btc on exchanges in the room with us?

No, but we do seem to have a few arguably whiny-ass "party poops" in this here room of these here parts with us.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

[edited out]
whether it is a correction or a mini-bear depends on duration.

There is no such thing as a mini-bear.

Either you are a bear or you are not a bear.  Go back to taxonomic training.   Angry Angry Angry

WOers, don't despair.
End-of-year, 200 grand.
Buy one, get one free!

#haikuquickie

Bitcoin may be halving, but also doubling over time, BOGO for life.

Dee cornz be repeatedly halvening and doubling at the same time over time?

Now, that's a puzzle to contemplate, and as you seem to suggest, such a unique dynamics may well end up being true in dee case of my lil precious.    Shocked Shocked Shocked

[edited out
Yhea, next pump will be $150k+ but for now a temporary dump that makes me a little bit depressed but unfounded nonsence because $80k is still a sweet number, i'm a little bit impatience, lol.

No need to stress for anybody here in WO. Instead, i'm existed for holiday next week to the Maldives. Bounty paradise will be a magnificent distraction.

Hopefully, you do not end up selling too many too soon, merely for some inabilities to defer gratification.

Will go to the gym for some weightlifting. Deathlift and other back exercises plus biceps today.

Any kind of deathlift is not recommended by this here cat, even if you also might happen to be a kitty cat with 9 available lives.

Is it "Friday For Futures" again?  Roll Eyes

You are correct. That could be a possible contributing factor. Perhaps? Perhaps?
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February 28, 2025, 08:01:16 AM


Explanation
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somac.
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February 28, 2025, 08:23:07 AM

MSTR might be an interesting one to watch today.
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February 28, 2025, 08:49:03 AM

MSTR might be an interesting one to watch today.
Observing 78,311@stamp

They had a pretty resilient couple of days vs Bitcoin, and the discount is actually pretty low.
But yes, they will be collateral damage of this carnage.

note to self:
Carnage is just a colloquial expression to overdramatise and allow engagement in a more-than-normal situation in corn Wall Observing.
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February 28, 2025, 08:52:34 AM


note to self:
Carnage is just a colloquial expression to overdramatise and allow engagement in a more-than-normal situation in corn Wall Observing.


Yes watch out with the lanuguage or you'll have Jay accusing you of being a panic driven bear when you're actually not.
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February 28, 2025, 09:00:48 AM

U.S Bitcoin strategic reserve bills taking healthy progress in states like Arizona and Taxas.

Only a matter of time when they and other states start buying making it a bullish market again.

They nuked the market to buy in cheap.

Yup. Also there's been some rumors about Amazon planning to allow bitcoin payments and PayPal just did it so there's a lot going on in the background but retail is in panic mode.

I know that feeling when you're back to the level you bought at and feel like you have to act so you won't have to explain to your family why you're at a loss now. People traditionally prefer to be up that 1 dollar on their investment than at a $1 loss. Like it changes anything. They don't get that being stuck in the fiat system makes them feel like they're at that $1 profit but due to taxes and inflation they're always at a loss.

For every bitcoin sold there's a buyer. Newbies see this and feel like they're selling into empty space in panic, but they're selling into well placed and well timed buys by people that later move the money out of exchanges into cold storage.

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February 28, 2025, 09:01:19 AM


Explanation
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February 28, 2025, 09:08:59 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

This #BTFD is getting addictive!

I am no longer DCA'ing, but rather LSD'ing (Lump Sum Dips)

I think i need to enroll in DBA to help control these urges!

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February 28, 2025, 10:01:17 AM


Explanation
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February 28, 2025, 11:01:17 AM


Explanation
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February 28, 2025, 11:28:29 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

MSTR might be an interesting one to watch today.

Why?
Because of the liquidation FUD?

Quote
In truth, MicroStrategy doesn't have any liquidation price. Unlike at other times in MicroStrategy's history, all of the company's debt is now unsecured. Its creditors don't hold any BTC as collateral and they have no power to force Saylor to sell any of it.

Source: https://protos.com/what-is-microstrategys-bitcoin-liquidation-price/
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February 28, 2025, 12:01:21 PM


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February 28, 2025, 12:21:50 PM
Merited by somac. (1)

CME gap partly filled, this could be very well the bottom.
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February 28, 2025, 12:29:58 PM

MSTR might be an interesting one to watch today.

Why?
Because of the liquidation FUD?

Quote
In truth, MicroStrategy doesn't have any liquidation price. Unlike at other times in MicroStrategy's history, all of the company's debt is now unsecured. Its creditors don't hold any BTC as collateral and they have no power to force Saylor to sell any of it.

Source: https://protos.com/what-is-microstrategys-bitcoin-liquidation-price/

Nope, because I don't think they have been that affected by this plunge so far. Pre-market has them at -3%. I suspect that MSTR investors are confident this just means that he'll be stacking more coins with his buys, meaning higher returns when the market pumps again.
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February 28, 2025, 01:01:15 PM


Explanation
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