Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Regardless if mining makes the price or price makes the mining, I like Phil's contributions: An old school miner offering his perspective on the matter.

It's the foundation and stabilizer force.

Dca and hold also stabilizer.

And trading degenerate speculating gives us up ticks to the moon..

Understanding btc reserves

Government hodl

Saylor hodl

Blackrock hodl

It a challenge.

Oh as a total and complete aside.

My wife has a totally "safe" tsp  which gets around 4% so it loses a bit each year.

Orange man will allow a BTC fund. To fed workers or retirees.

So Pretend my wife has 300k getting 4%=12,000  I have convinced her to take 25% of the interest earned ie 3,000 so she can have $$$ in BTC

This is a big deal as the federal tsp and/or 401k equivalent has trillions in it.

This should help support BTC price bigly.

IT ALSO should allow for a large dip buy if BTC drops enough.

Do not worry about these numbers 115k there are tons of funds waiting to go into btc.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

"Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I’m rich."

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@ColinTCrypto
BTC Bottom in Today & Next High Confidence BTC Move Up Around Aug 23rd - Triple Confluence

This is another, fun, short-term Bitcoin price prediction using the triple confluence of Global M2, Gold and Inverse DXY, each shifted forward by 82 days.

Doing so last time correctly called a move up in advance (see the post below).

This seems to indicate a high probability of two things:
1. The bottom could be in today (Aug 18th)
2. The next, predictably, high-confidence move up will be around Aug 23rd.

The second point is the highest confidence as all 3 metrics show it. The first point is lesser confidence as it looks like there could be a few sideways days ahead from the metrics, but roughly speaking, the bottom seems to be near.

This "triple confluence" is an experimental thing I'm doing to see how it works out at predicting somewhat short term moves. Read the quoted post below for more context and data.

https://x.com/colintcrypto/status/1957446652572348610


The post he referenced below was -


@ColinTCrypto
Next $BTC move-up prediction: August 9-13th

This is an EXPERIMENT to see if 3 charts (Global M2, Inverse DXY, and Gold) act as confluence, and if they can predict *when* BTC's next short term price move up will begin for BTC.

Pictured:
  • Global M2 [yellow line]
  • Inverse DXY [blue line]
  • Gold [pink line]

Each was offset by 82 days to match the most recent price moves. This offset was chosen purely visually and for recency. It was overfitted on purpose. For a longer term view (which is not what we're looking at here) an offset of about 90 has a stronger average correlation.

I want to be very clear: this is just an attempt at guessing the next short term move based on short term confluence. This is NOT intended to give some big macro picture. This is an EXPERIMENT to see if these three charts can offer us increased odds of determining the next short term price move correctly. Let's watch and see. 🍿

https://x.com/colintcrypto/status/1952730132545732914

[Mahiyammahi]

What kind of odds are you thinking that $100k to $103k might be touched upon? 80% or greater?  And, did you say that there was a reason for the dump? or just part of a "waves" theory?

My odds are here greater than 70% , yeah the waves theory. We should expect the dump. Since market was recovering and money was also shifting it's gear , we saw a massive volume and money sure into ETH , other than Bitcoin. So if we were to expect a green market a correction should be made here. Although if BTC recovers $120k my theory will be invalid . We all know this year market was so uncertain and uncertainty can happens. Day trader's rn looking for a correction on BTC.

[Xtraordinarious]

I want to be very clear: this is just an attempt at guessing the next short term move based on short term confluence. This is NOT intended to give some big macro picture. This is an EXPERIMENT to see if these three charts can offer us increased odds of determining the next short term price move correctly. Let's watch and see. 🍿

I can see here, and understand that these three charts can do something incredible for short-term, correct direction changes.

But this kind of triple confluence analysis really looks great! It is an innovative idea to offset all three of them together: M2, inverse DXY, and GlD. The way the previous prediction matched the timing was quite impressive. If there is another move-up around August 23rd, it will be like thinking seriously about this model.

Although it matched last time, I don't know if it will match this time, but according to their predictions, it may match, according to the discussion. Therefore, even though it started as an experiment, it works excitingly. I'm keeping an eye on the next update to see what happens. But I hope to get some good news.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

What kind of odds are you thinking that $100k to $103k might be touched upon? 80% or greater?  And, did you say that there was a reason for the dump? or just part of a "waves" theory?

My odds are here greater than 70% , yeah the waves theory. We should expect the dump. Since market was recovering and money was also shifting it's gear , we saw a massive volume and money sure into ETH , other than Bitcoin. So if we were to expect a green market a correction should be made here. Although if BTC recovers $120k my theory will be invalid . We all know this year market was so uncertain and uncertainty can happens. Day trader's rn looking for a correction on BTC.

So far you look really bad as it reversed direction as if it read your post and said let's fuck with your head.


Myself

Dca via mining
Sell ladder up 125k to 301k
Buy ladder down 109k to 74k

And occasionally buy a dip piece if I happen to be at the pc.  I do this on PayPal.

Yeah it kills you on fees and on actual buy sell price.

But it is a perfect kyc with all funds accounted for.
It would allow me to do a larger sale with out worrying about proving anything.

Hoping for the best as time moves on.

I rather do sales in 2026 then in 2025.

Due to New Jersey property tax laws for seniors taking a profit this year cost me my tax exemption on my house.

NEXT year it wont

[Leahized]

kids are selling lemonade made of home. Interesting is accepting Bitcoin as a payment.

They really smart kids




Their thoughts have surprised me. I noticed it later.

[cygan]

my gents you can try your luck again in my new free raffle: [FREE RAFFLE #7] Icarus Custom Card🔐🎰

[promise444c5]

"Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I’m rich."

Yup "I'm a greedy slob,it's my hobby"

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Cointikka]

My odds are here greater than 70% , yeah the waves theory. We should expect the dump. Since market was recovering and money was also shifting it's gear , we saw a massive volume and money sure into ETH , other than Bitcoin. So if we were to expect a green market a correction should be made here. Although if BTC recovers $120k my theory will be invalid . We all know this year market was so uncertain and uncertainty can happens. Day trader's rn looking for a correction on BTC.

I have been following the price of Bitcoin for over a decade, and it now feels like it is a lot more influenced by geopolitical events. Above all, whenever the Bitcoin price goes up, surely, it will surely get dumped. I agree on that point of yours, but I still believe there will be a big correction, and it will happen before Israel and the US attacks on Iran, or maybe after the attack. The thing is that the attack should happen next month. I am assuming if Bitcoin price continues to go down, then it is a sign that those corporations are now selling it to fund the next war.

The price of Bitcoin is so synchronized with geopolitical events because of the US President. It is evident that due to failed talks between the US and Russia, the market went into the red. When it was announced that these two leaders were going to meet, the market was in green. I do not like the President of the US, but I should say that because of him Bitcoin price did go beyond 100K. I would also like to state that because of him, it is possibe we might see a big dump in Bitcoin price.

[philipma1957]

So I will be drinking 1 shot of this every Sunday night till we pass 114k

Just to let you all know here is our support.

I finished it on Saturday the 16th and it held the wood supporting BTC at the 114+ level.



So I knocked it off From July 7 to August 16th.

Btw my 13 year anniversary  on Bitcointalk passed yesterday so I guess honey badger and buddy wanted to fuck

with our heads. Lucky for us Old granddad stopped those fuckers in their tracks.

[WatChe]

I am not much of a fan for selling in order to buy back cheaper.. but yeah, if you have been accumulating for a while you might be able to figure out some of the potential beneficial price points for accomplishing that.

Can't agree more. I don't think it's right mind set that Bitcoin price will keep following a cycle that we buy it at DIP, sell it when high and it will keep repeating.      

One of the best ways to assume that you are continuing to accumulate more bitcoin is by continuing to buy... and yeah some guys might take a moderate approach by holding back on their bitcoin buys when the price is seeming frothy.. and it can be really difficult to say what is good for any particular guy.

It's good to buy more when price is down compared to when it's up.

Even you, you have been registered on the forum since January 2020, so you have had opportunities to accumulate decent amounts of BTC, yet at the same time, you have asserted that you have sold bitcoin from time to time during that time, which surely seems problematic from my point of view... even though several times you have defended your position, even though you admit that you are still in accumulation phase. In the end, you are choosing and you are living with the consequences of your choices.

We have discussion on that issue previously. I am happy that I have Bitcoin and it has helped me in many ways, to improve my living standard.

[xhomerx10]

"Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I’m rich."

Yup "I'm a greedy slob,it's my hubby"

Oops, wrong gif!  Anyway,

 hubby
/ˈhəbē/
noun informal
an affectionate way of referring to a person's husband.

 hobby
noun
/hä-bē/
a pursuit outside one's regular occupation engaged in especially for relaxation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

"Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I’m rich."

Yup "I'm a greedy slob,it's my hubby"

Oops, wrong gif!  Anyway,

 hubby
/ˈhəbē/
noun informal
an affectionate way of referring to a person's husband.

 hobby
noun
/hä-bē/
a pursuit outside one's regular occupation engaged in especially for relaxation

Haha my bad, I meant hobby-ish not hubby   thanks for catching that!