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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26917470 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Emikoyumi
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August 24, 2025, 04:44:37 PM

Speaking of being a millionaire, it's nostalgia time again.

 I became a millionaire in Romanian lei a little before 2005 which was a little before the gov't converted the Third leu (ROL) in to the Fourth leu (RON) and a rate of ten thousand to one.  It was no great feat - I suppose every Romanian was a millionaire due to government incompetence; arguably the silliest way to become a millionaire.

 In 2006, we went to buy a couple of train tickets from the capital to the Black Sea coast.  The cashier said, "400" (no currency mentioned but the default was RON by then) and my wife started peeling off 4 X 100 RON notes to hand over.  I was trying to get my head around the cost - at the time, we could have probably taken the train from TO to Montreal (in Canada) for about that same amount and since I had checked into it, I new I could rent a little Honda Civic for about 70 RON per day in Romania.  The price didn't make sense and as I told my wife, "Hang on a second!  This doesn't make sense... I could rent a car for the weekend and it would be cheaper...", she was already forking over the 400 RON.   The cashiers eyes suddenly got huge and she appeared to panic, shaking her head from side to side vigorously but she just repeated the same number only louder "Nu! 400!"  I had a quick discussion with my wife - "It can't possibly be 400 old lei because that wouldn't fetch a penny but I know she's saying 400 (patru sute)."  Finally, the cashier took one of our 100 RON notes and gave us back 60 RON so it was actually 40 RON for the two of us to take the train to the coast. (That's an awesome deal by the way - it was ~US$10 at the time and that's when I got an idea that retiring in Romania might be a good option in the future).  It hurt my brain but I finally realized that in a very short time, Romanians had adopted a habit of telling you the cost in thousands of old lei and just dropping the thousand, leaving it up to the payer to go the last decimal place on their own.  Everyone, everywhere... not just the cashiers but everyone we spoke with did the same nonsensical conversion.  Sometimes, even when I used that method it didn't seem right - case in point, we had purchased a new watch for my dad but had the band sized a bit small.  No problem, we took it to a jeweler to have a link put back in... he did it quite quickly and then said, "thirteen lei"  - now this guy must be speaking in terms of RON (the new currency) because 13 RON would have been a little under US$3, right?  Nope!  It was 1.3 RON or about 30 American cents.  He demonstrated the actual amount while holding my wife's wallet after assuring us he didn't plan on stealing it.  I gave him the 13 RON anyway and thanked him for the lesson after which, he gave us a lifetime guarantee on the watchband size.  So I was all set.  I had finally figured out the new money and I boldly strode into a little grocery shop on our way to dinner one evening to get myself a Coca-Cola light and some sugar free breath mints... I set it on the counter with a friendly. "Buna seara!" and the young lady behind the counter looked at me and said "cinlei" which was a new word(s) on me - a lazy way of saying "cinci lei" - so it took me a second but then I quickly converted using the New Romanian math... she means 5000 old lei, move the decimal place over to the left and bingo bango bongo - 50 bani! (half a RON).  I dug into my pocket, pulled out a 50 bani coin and handed it to the young lady.  She held it between her thumb and index finger, tilted her head to the side, put her hand on her hip, furrowed her brow and rolled her eyes at me (typical Romanian way of saying - "come on, man").  Then she twisted the screen toward me, stuck her index finger under the total and said again, "cinlei".  You guess it, it was 5 RON.  I pulled out 5 RON note and told her to keep the 50 bani and left the shop feeling dumber than when I had arrived.  Millionaire life was difficult in Romania.
What a wonderful story Reading it felt like watching a scene play out in front of me. It really shows how strange and sureal currency devaluation can be. on paper, being a millionaire sounds exciting but as you described so well it was more of a fake millionaire situation. The way numbers played tricks on people cashiers shopkeepers everyone adapting in their own way was both funny and fascinating to read.

I am especially love how you mixed humor with a bit of confusion. because it capture the reality of living through that kind of transition. beneath the laugh there is also a powerful truth here, money value is not in the number of zeros on the bills but in what it can actually buy. your story not only gave a glimpse of Romania’s economic quirks back then but also reminded me of a timeless lesson that true wealth is not measured in inflated numbers but in real life value.
ChartBuddy
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August 24, 2025, 05:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
cxtreenal
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August 24, 2025, 05:45:37 PM


https://x.com/BitcoinNews21M/status/1959639980340387914

Bitcoin crossed ATH was $124k on August 14th in Q3. Standard Chartered estimate suggests that we still have more than a month to go to $135k at the end of Q3. We still have more than four months to go to $200k in Q4. Bitcoin price predictions point to higher prices in the coming years. Now I prefer to think of Bitcoin as a store of value.
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August 24, 2025, 06:01:17 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
El duderino_
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August 24, 2025, 06:01:52 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (10), vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), d_eddie (1), OutOfMemory (1)

Barcelona days
Grinding stops now… Ace Three hearts
Sends me to the rail.
LFC_Bitcoin
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August 24, 2025, 06:13:28 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), Biodom (1)

We need a new poll.

What will be the top and likely cycle high in 2025?

  • It’s already in
  • <$130,000
  • $130,000 - $139,999
  • $140,000 - $149,999
  • $150,000 - $159,999
  • $160,000 - $169,999
  • $170,000 - $179,999
  • $180,000 - $189,999
  • $190,000 - $199,999
  • >$200,000
Biodom
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August 24, 2025, 06:31:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

We need a new poll.

What will be the top and likely cycle high in 2025?

  • It’s already in
  • <$130,000
  • $130,000 - $139,999
  • $140,000 - $149,999
  • $150,000 - $159,999
  • $160,000 - $169,999
  • $170,000 - $179,999
  • $180,000 - $189,999
  • $190,000 - $199,999
  • >$200,000

yeah..with Pi cycle top nowhere near...it's time to enjoy the extended bull.
Six relevant charts (please ignore the style of the presenter..or like it Wink ):

https://youtu.be/qWOvpivMvAk?t=29
ChartBuddy
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August 24, 2025, 07:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
gallianooo
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August 24, 2025, 07:40:20 PM
Last edit: August 24, 2025, 08:01:53 PM by gallianooo

DUMP is back.
Boring till?
coolcoinz
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August 24, 2025, 07:41:00 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5)

Nice attempt at price manipulation. A few hundred BTC dumped within seconds to crash the price. Bitcoin is still a playground for bots and pump&dumpers...
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August 24, 2025, 07:52:42 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

Treasury companies hopefully will step in and kick up the buying volume some. Then if Powell could please give us some brrrr, now that would be grand, thank you.

Powell will give us some brrrr if Trump stops increasing inflation with his stupid tariffs.
Orange-Utan no good.

Sad to say, I don't trust any newbie by default. Especially ones that make a big deal about them "being new." Its like no shit, we can see that already.

Nah, it's not sad to say. It's just sad. (The fact that newbies aren't to be trusted by default)


Well the question remains how many should get merits

BTCETFInvestor talks a good game.

If I was certain he was a single poster and not a 5,10,15 or more account farmer giving a merit would be correct.

If I knew he even had only 2 accounts and would just stay with 2 I would  not care about the rule infraction.

If no one ever did more than 2 accounts and got signature money from 2 different signatures it  would not be that terrible..


But the idea of 10 and 15 bs accounts makes me hesitate to,give merits.

Plus some seem to think he is faking photos
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August 24, 2025, 08:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
blomen
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August 24, 2025, 08:05:31 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5), OgNasty (2)

this smells like a liquidation hunt.



the price fell back to 110k and a significant amount of long positions were liquidated. preparing for a new rally?
El duderino_
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August 24, 2025, 08:13:07 PM
Merited by gallianooo (3)

Rate cuts didn’t impress I guess
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August 24, 2025, 08:24:39 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Coming from another new account's perspective... (who may have been guarding this wall for a lot longer than most) You have to take the OG's skepticism with a grain of salt; we have seen a lot worse attempts in here to farm merit, and our own personal AI bot as well as a few others may be a bit careless giving it away as it's only merit lol...

You could quell their worries by posting a pic, but I personally don't care what a few people think, especially if they are wrong!!! Again, with that being said, you have to understand why some are skeptical; we have seen it and so much more for honestly less at this point.


On the price... Hell of a dump in a few minutes, but it's all just noise on this continued journey.

CCMF Laura!!!


(As always, thanks to everyone here for providing me with daily shite to digest!)
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August 24, 2025, 08:43:00 PM

PANIK

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August 24, 2025, 09:01:16 PM


Explanation
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welovebit
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August 24, 2025, 09:32:03 PM


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Buddy again, and again you are giving me motivation to have taste of these dips please stop this and allow to his $130K.
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"


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August 24, 2025, 09:57:08 PM
Last edit: August 25, 2025, 01:34:08 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Small airplanes and boats.
You buy, you cry, then you sell.
Same with women, too!

Consequences come,
Schmonsequences they become,
As long as I’m rich!

There may be some of us. .. not going to mention names, who did not quite get to Mindrust levels of 10 BTC in 2020. .and surely even 10 BTC in 2020 seemed reasonably achievable for guys who had been largely accumulating prior to March 2020. and maybe even if they had taken 3-4 years of accumulation to get themselves to whatever stash level that they had in March 2020.

Even the guys bordering on 10 BTC might be starting to feel rich.. and yeah, maybe some of them (us) might have had not quite been at 10 BTC in 2020, but they (we) continued to accumulate bitcoin through subsequent years to maybe bring us from 7 BTC to something that is currently approaching 8 or 9 bitcoin, and I am not even proclaiming myself to be in such a club, even though we can see that there are quite a few normie guys (and even guys in relatively low income countries) who could have gotten themselves to such 8 to 9 BTC status in regards to mostly starting to accumulate BTC 4 years prior to March 2020, and they did not end up mindrusting in March-ish of 2020.

I understand that even you AlcoHoDL seem to be somewhat skeptical of my own reassessment of entry-level fuck you status being currently sustainable at 15.4561 BTC  (in current times, it is going down (becoming less) by right around 0.011 BTC (1,100,000 satoshis) (per day)**, so some conservative guy like you might feel better to have a greater cushion and you might want to double such characterization of entry-level fuck you status to be something like 30.9122 BTC.  That should be holy sheit more than enough, and yeah, I understand that guys are not even wanting to pull the fuck you lever without some kind of a bitcoin cushion, and guys are not necessarily single income and without expense complications, maybe some of them self-imposed..

Edited to add footnote: **By the way.. there is a bit of a WOW factor here, if you think about the matter of of the formula reducing the quantity of BTC needed to sustain $80k per year of income by 0.011 fewer BTC per day, if you multiply that by 365, that is a reduction of about 4 BTC in the following year, if the rate were to be consistent for the upcoming year.  Of course, the rate is likely to reduce (since the 200-WMA is ongoingly moving up at a lower and lower rate, even though even the 200-WMA has its spurts upwards).  At the same time, even a reduction of 3 BTC within the upcoming year is a whole hell of a lot fewer bitcoin needed in order to ongoingly sustain an $80k per year withdrawal rate - and I am even assuming that once withdrawals begin, then each year the dollar based withdrawal rate can be increased by 7%, so the withdrawal amount for year 2 would be $85.6k, for example.

yet still not necessarily easy to get out of since as we get older we are likely to develop some kinds of baggages that don't allow us to attempt to completely fly like a free bird... by the way, I think that it was yesterday that I was watching the waves of the ocean crashing, and I kept thinking that the were so BIG and so powerful as I was watching them. .I was even considering to go in, but yeah, also considering that it can sometimes be a lot of challenge to deal with waves, especially when they were coming in an area that was mixed with both beach and rocks (cliffs) that would sometimes cause the waves to come in straight and then other times to cause them to go in a non-straight direction and with power.. and so surely every once in a while the waves were so big to formulate really large crests that were like a tunnel that we sometimes see the surfers going through. .but these ones not quite that big.. maybe only around 3-6 feet.. which is not quite enough for a surfer to go through their tunnel portion, even when they formulated such small tunnels...

So, yeah, getting back to the bird idea... There was a "free bird," that was maybe only just a small bird (and not a water bird) just flew too close to the crest of one of the incoming waves, and the wave was only like 45 feet (15 meters) from the part of the shore where I was (I was up on top of of the rocky areas), so when the wave was cresting, the bird was in the same spot and that was not a good spot, and I would have had thought that the bird would have had known better, and the wave crashed upon itself quickly, and no more bird. .and no evidence of bird, even though surely the bird was in there, but it was not getting out once it went through that level of violence..  free bird turned into dead bird, yet from outside of the water, I could not see the evidence of dead bird even though the wave came in within seconds of cresting, crashing, sucking up bird and washing onto the shore.

My perspective of the "free" bird getting sucked up by a wave kind of looked like this, except the wave was bigger.. this wave is only a couple feet at most, and in recent times some of these waves had been getting 3-6 feet and some greater than that.



By the way, just a thought.  I doubt that I have given away enough information to give away my location at the time of my taking such picture.  No WO sign.  No other ways of establishing that I really took this picture beyond my proclaiming that I did take it.


"It's too expensive."
"I'm waiting to buy the dip."
They're the same picture!

It is getting difficult to get to the status of overaccumulation in less than 4 years, even though it is possible, yet part of being possible to get anywhere with our bitcoin is that we have to get started... and aven accumulate for quite a while before we might start to employ strategies that the attempt to figure out the dip.

Surely, in retrospect, it seems to have had been better for the guy who got started earlier, even at one of the 2021 highs, yet I doubt that current BTC prices are going to feel expensive 4-ish years from now... even though contemporaneously almost all times "feel expensive," especially for bitcoin newbies.. yet if they don't have any or much if any, better to start now rather than waiting.  From my perspective, waiting is not a very good BTC accumulation strategy, and never really has been, even though retrospectively we might feel that we could have had figured out the various dips.  

Decline in Bitcoin price is a kind of blessing for those who are sure that Bitcoin will soon be at 200k.

Fair enough.

Anyone still accumulating should be happy to be able to continue accumulating at $113k-ish rather than $120k-ish.. even though it might not be any kind of real big difference... but surely better to be accumulating in the lower $100ks rather than in the upper $100ks.

Lazy in August
This is what she likes to do
Coiling, recoiling
#haiku

I recall similar statements last year about August and September, and I also recall that both August and September were good months for dee coinz... and perhaps part of my point is that it could be misleading to get too caught up upon corn daddy needing to follow calendar-based expectations.
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August 24, 2025, 09:58:59 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

I can't be a**ed with looking over the history here.
I know we are a bunch of freedom seekers here at WO.
Have you all seen Dorsey's new messaging app Bitchat?
A permissionless encrypted messaging system leveraging Bluetooth BLE.
I have been playing with it for a couple of days and it is looking promising.
A lot of messages are relayed using nostr relays.
Worth a look.
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