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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26918349 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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September 12, 2025, 03:01:17 PM


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September 12, 2025, 03:03:02 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1), d_eddie (1)

Not that I ever did that, but I think that when you recover a wallet by a BIP-39 seed you need no passphrase, at least with some wallet software. Maybe it's worth checking if this is the case.

Using a Trezor which will need both the seed and passphrase to gain access the hidden wallet.

My point was: if it's BIP-39, and BIP-39 recovery needs no passphrase, and if a bad guy gets the seed, you might be in trouble even if they don't know the passphrase. Two big IFs. Maybe trezor doesn't use BIP-39 seeds, though?
Yes, definitely because the wallet has no passphrase. But what Paashaas meant is that hidden wallets on Trezor are passphrase enabled.



That is the reason they are called hidden wallets and you can only use their passphrases to have access to them. If the passphrase is wrong, it will only give the attacker an empty wallet.
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September 12, 2025, 03:13:21 PM

Aha, I guess it's not BIP-39 compatible then.
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September 12, 2025, 05:02:08 PM
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I have to assume he is dead. The far left need reigning in, they are violent and unhinged. Something has to be done.
Why is it always "left" or "right" people - a life was taken why can't we just condemn violence in any form when it is completely unprovoked..
In all fairness, it isn’t always left or right, it is usually just the left… At least lately. They have definitely become the party of hate, violence, and crime. If that isn’t blatantly obvious to you from this week’s actions, you have blinders on. Calling out democrats for the behavior they incite is absolutely the right thing to do.
Don't let any actual facts get in the way of your analysis spin.
Like these facts?
"All Cartridges have engraved wording on them expressing transgender and anti-fascist ideology"

https://imgur.com/a/5DAhhvt - if image isn't loading

The point that I was making to criticize OgNasty was a bit broader, since he was proclaiming that almost all hate, violence and crime was coming from the left.

Surely in the Kirk shooting case there seems to be fairly strong evidence that the shooting was motivated by political differences of opinion, and so yeah, if the bullets are engraved then it becomes less ambiguous that the political motivations were intended to be known.

I think that the kinds of facts that I was suggesting OgNasty to be leaving out relates to evidence of hate, violence and/or crime that comes from right wing rather than left wing ideology.  From my perspective OgNasty is so obvious in his own ways of seeing the world and presenting the issue that there is hardly any need to counter it, except just to point out that he is making outrageous claims and failing/refusing to provide evidence for his outrageous claims (or to to rebutt the counter-evidence).

I understand and misinterpreted your comment as only pertaining to this incident. I have no argument against there being hate spewed from both sides.

Though, I will somewhat agree with OgNasty due to personal experiences living in both very blue and very red states. In the conservative areas, I have heard a lot of disgust with the more liberal lifestyles, especially pertaining to what goes on in schools curriculum now a days (i.e. the essentially pornographic materials in books/curriculums, trannies brought into schools for whatever reason, "sex ed" teaching gay/trans ideology, etc). They basically say if that's what you want to do, do it somewhere else. We don't want that here.

In the overwhelmingly liberal city I lived in, there was, essentially, this inherent hate for the conservatives and their lifestyle. I would try and probe them, wanting to understand where this vitriol, this anger spawned from, but there was never a rationale given. It was like arguing with a woman when she "feels" a certain way, and thus justifies her completely illogical thinking (I'm assuming any guy reading this with a gf/wife can relate, haha). They had this mindset that "right is bad, we need to destroy it so everyone can be happy" (no, the hypocrisy of this type of statement is not lost on me). Why? Just because. Or, "they want to destroy us, we have to destroy them first"... how do you know they want to destroy you? "It is obvious, they just do!"

Yes, some more extreme conservatives would say similar things, I don't deny that. The glaring difference between the two is the amount of people with that mindset in each group. It was as though there was an inverse correlation between the two; A small minority of the right vs the vast majority of the left.

Even now I still don't understand why they feel that way, it is quite interesting from a psychological perspective.



What I am more nervous (for lack of a better word) about is escalation from both sides due to this incident. The, divide and conquer the masses so no one focuses on gov anymore, being pushed so hard that it leads to the detriment of us all in the US. It makes me think of this poem (is it a poem?) and where we will be if/after this happens:
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/12279767-the-most-terrifying-force-of-death-comes-from-the-hands

This post is why america is doomed.


The far right and the far left are one and the same. And they squeeze the more normal people out of the narative.

I am a centrist and find it easy to pick what I like from either side.

Unfortunately there seems to be far too many on the left or right that want to point a finger..



Here is my centrist take. I want Trump to send tons of troops to both Houston and Chicago both are crime filled hell holes.

One is eft and one is right.

Let's then see which one turns around first.


This is compromise at its best yet no one talks about it.

They either point at the left or the,right.
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September 12, 2025, 05:33:53 PM

Looks like we're about to break above $116K and retest yesterday's highs.  I'm expecting a breakout and a little run between now and Wednesday.  Probably won't reach new highs, but we can hope.  Mostly, I hope there is enough buying power laying around to keep this rally going after the interest rate announcement.  A dovish statement from the fed will certainly play a role and I think we'll get one, but you never know.  I've been saying for a long time that September 16th would be the peak of this cycle, but I'll admit that as we get close to that date and with the information at hand, I wouldn't be surprised if that was pushed back to November.
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September 12, 2025, 05:51:28 PM

Looks like we're about to break above $116K and retest yesterday's highs.  I'm expecting a breakout and a little run between now and Wednesday.  Probably won't reach new highs, but we can hope.  Mostly, I hope there is enough buying power laying around to keep this rally going after the interest rate announcement.  A dovish statement from the fed will certainly play a role and I think we'll get one, but you never know.  I've been saying for a long time that September 16th would be the peak of this cycle, but I'll admit that as we get close to that date and with the information at hand, I wouldn't be surprised if that was pushed back to November.

I don't disagree with your opinion. Right now, the put/call ratio is a little bearish but that can turn around quickly.

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September 12, 2025, 05:57:29 PM

#Bitcoin vs gold performance over the last 10 years 

Gold: 226% 
BTC: 48,927%


source: x

The chart shows how much the price of Bitcoin and gold has increased in the last ten years. This clearly shows that Bitcoin has increased by twice as much as gold. This chart proves once again that with patient, long-term investment, more profits can be expected from Bitcoin than from gold in the future.
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September 12, 2025, 06:01:23 PM


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September 12, 2025, 06:09:26 PM

#Bitcoin vs gold performance over the last 10 years  

Gold: 226%  
BTC: 48,927%


source: x

The chart shows how much the price of Bitcoin and gold has increased in the last ten years. This clearly shows that Bitcoin has increased by twice as much as gold. This chart proves once again that with patient, long-term much investment, more profits can be expected from Bitcoin than from gold in the future.


Try gold nov 2021 to now

Vs

Btc Nov 2021 to now

Gold did 1750-1825  and is now 3660 pretty much 2x

Btc was 69k and in now 115k pretty much 1.6667


So rather than going backwards to compare make a 4 year future guess.

Over next 4 years who wins.

My guess is btc
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September 12, 2025, 06:17:45 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

#Bitcoin vs gold performance over the last 10 years  

Gold: 226%  
BTC: 48,927%


source: x

The chart shows how much the price of Bitcoin and gold has increased in the last ten years. This clearly shows that Bitcoin has increased by twice as much as gold. This chart proves once again that with patient, long-term much investment, more profits can be expected from Bitcoin than from gold in the future.


Try gold nov 2021 to now

Vs

Btc Nov 2021 to now

Gold did 1750-1825  and is now 3660 pretty much 2x

Btc was 69k and in now 115k pretty much 1.6667


So rather than going backwards to compare make a 4 year future guess.

Over next 4 years who wins.

My guess is btc
I think this comparison is very useful to know so i don't argue without real calculation.

From November 2021 till today, 12th September 2025, Gold has about  101.40% growth in price.

From November 2021 till today 12th September 2025, BTC has about 103.30% growth in price.

BTC still wins even in the future.

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September 12, 2025, 06:35:23 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), fillippone (3), Biodom (1)

$116,500

Come on, my beauty.
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September 12, 2025, 07:10:36 PM
Last edit: September 12, 2025, 09:42:38 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by El duderino_ (7), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1), d_eddie (1), psycodad (1)

Aha, I guess it's not BIP-39 compatible then.

It is. Always has been.

The seed without the passphrase leads to a wallet (call it Wallet A). Adding the passphrase to the (same) seed leads to another wallet (call it Wallet B). Wallets A and B are cryptographically independent, and there is no way to get to one from the other. Any other passphrase you add to the (same) seed leads to Wallet C, D, E, etc.

So, Wallet A can be empty (or have a small amount, say, 1 BTC, as a decoy, for $5 wrench attacks), and at the same time Wallet B can have the bulk of your stash (say, 100 BTC). This setup can be used for plausible deniability (you disclose the seed, but not the passphrase -- for more details, see my relevant article here).

All this is part of BIP-39, and is compatible with all BIP-39 wallets (Trezor, Ledger, etc.).
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September 12, 2025, 07:56:37 PM
Last edit: September 12, 2025, 09:25:40 PM by JayJuanGee
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__X___.......................(....).....ee!!! Here's a toast!!
Surely that is part of the problem in regards to selling and expecting to buy back cheaper.
You may end up with way fewer coins than you could have had if you had stayed focused on accumulating through buying only.

Once you get to an over-accumulation status, then sure you can sell some coins, but not necessarily with expectations of buying back cheaper.
We've seen it over and over and over in this thread... and guys doubling down and tripling down and the price keeps going up instead of their hope for down.. and then down doesn't come until later and at much higher prices, and then pretty soon we don't see those guys around here  any more.

We have amongst the best, if not the best place to put value and accumulate it, and you want to try to be smart and trade it?  Go figure.
Oh, do you remember a while ago I said 116 was the target?, so I expected it to take a little longer and not be that fast...

Of course, you can do what you like, and you might even win on a few occasions, yet I doubt that trading it s good strategy when it comes to bitcoin.  You are rolling the dice each time you make your various bets.  Of course, there can be ways that you bet in both directions.

And so earlier today I risked selling my ammunition with the intention of buying more ammunition, so that when the target arrived, I would have more ammunition to hit him, I quickly had this option at 113500, but I didn't want to take advantage of it, I went to work, and I thought that as soon as I came back I could pay about 113,.. 112..... and after an hour on the job, I looked at the price and it was already at 114,500, good.... I believe you understood the part that I have a small capital exclusively to do this, and whenever it exceeds about 100USD, I buy in BTC and keep it, and I don't move them anymore...

There are probably better threads that deal with trading/gambling, but yeah, it is not off topic hear for you to talk about your supposed smart strategies in playing the waves, and i have a hard time believing that you are fucking around with trading and then when you get a certain level of profits (like $100), then you will fold that into bitcoin and then continue gambling/trading with your other capital.. So for example you start out with $25 and you trade it until it reaches $100 and then put it into bitcoin... That might not be a bad system if that was what you were really doing, but I doubt that.

This is my strategy, besides being my fun man my friend.
...

Yes.. it can be fun to gamble, and even to play around with a certain percent of your BTC holdings.. hopefully no more than 10% of your bitcoin holdings, without cheating.. yet of course, you are playing around with much larger amounts, as you mentioned.  And, you also mentioned that you were not very rich.. so presumptively you are trying to accumulate more bitcoin, yet you may also be trying to accumulate more dollars..   You might not even know the difference since you are caught up upon short term value... but yeah if you have been into bitcoin since September 2018, you surely have had some opportunities to really build up your holdings, but instead you are more likely spinning your wheels and not even outperforming a more strict accumulation through buying and hold strategy, that does not involve trading and/or selling.

Of course, if you would have had an ability to front load your bitcoin investment you could have had done even better, yet if we might imagine that you might have only been able to get something like $50 per week into bitcoin and you had focused exclusively on buying bitcoin from September 2018 to present, then you would have invested right around $18k and you would have still accumulated close to 1.2 bitcoin... so I have my doubts that your fucking around with trading has done better than that.

Maybe part of your problem is that you are not able to find employment to give you an income so that you have discretionary income and that you can actually invest into bitcoin.. yet it takes a long time to build up a bitcoin holdings, and it likely takes longer if you are gambling with high quantities of what you had already accumulated.., you are likely not to make progress with your spending a bunch of time trying to figure out squigglie lines... but yeah, of course, do as you wish.

...I could also tell a sad story here, and how my day to day is that even if I had money to buy little by little regardless of the price,, governments are increasingly closing the siege, when I need to sell, I sell P2P, and more 5~10% fees, and to buy P2P more %%% above the market still....

You are giving even mor reason to justify not fucking around with selling - except maybe to test your liquidity from time to time, yet, you likely would be better off to just keep accumulating and putting your bitcoin on the side, and maybe at some point in the future, you will haver more options to use your bitcoin without fears of reprisals.  For sure, we know that some jurisdictions are hostile to bitcoin, and so one of your calculations regards how to deal with such current hostilities, and maybe considering the extent to which you have to keep your bitcoin in a more private way and to assure that you are not drawing attention to yourself.

Sure another option is that government hostilities are too overwhelming and you are having difficulties figuring out ways to secure your bitcoin.  People are frequently left with difficult choices, and probably even harder choices if your local government is outwardly hostile to bitcoin.

So my strategy of having capital from which I can extract some milk from it over time and buy it, for me personally it is gratifying,...

Your choice.. but you are not getting the benefits of bitcoin's compounding value over a couple of cycles if you are extracting profits (milk) from it on too regular of a basis.  Yeah, sure maybe you are doing better because you get extra income from it, but you are surely not getting the full value and power of bitcoin.

Like I mention in my investment ideas thread and my post about compounding value, bitcoin prices have largely doubled close to 9 times since 2015 when bitcoin prices were at $250.. so that compounding value has brought close to 256x in appreciation.. which is way more than what you are getting when you are ongoingly shaving off profits and not allowing your coins to double in value a few times before you start to shave off profits.

I am missing 180USD for me to return the original value of my capital., I am happy, and also I do not make full use of it, only partial, and so I buy at lower prices when I can take a decrease, in the case of those I sold today,, I had bought at 110, 112, 108....,And if every day I manage to make a purchase and a sale, my fun is guaranteed, and for me to be having fun, I need to see the price every day. Embarrassed

One man's fun is another man's financial freedom, and so sure, you can have fun if you like, yet you might never be able to achieve power from bitcoin if your bitcoin is not building up over time, even if it might take you 20 years or more to build up a stash.  Sure some guys do not have 20 years and you do not need to have 20 years in order to be empowered by the building up of a bitcoin stash, which I usually suggest an investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer and not to be fucking around with short term moves.. .but yeah, you are going to continue to advocate for your way of doing it, when it comes off as a very much inferior practice and perspective about bitcoin.

ONLY you are able to figure out if your are ready, willing and/or able to pursue superior practices and to improve your perspective in the direction of investing rather than trading.

but sometimes I need to work outside my city, where I also had problems, last year, before traveling, I left a good amount sold in 65k, and during the week I observed the price between 55, 60, and I could not buy and when the weekend came, and I returned, the price did not wait for me,..quickly passed 70k, these are the problems of those who sell to buy back cheaper, always lose the train., but as this capital is destined only for this strategy, I don't see a problem., as long as I don't stop....Although it is tiring and a lot, I like it...

You seem to be arguing against yourself and the disadvantages of trading.

To the investor, it might not matter if the coins were bought at $55k, $60k or $70k.  Sure, it is better to get them cheaper, yet it is even more  better to continue to accumulate through buying on a regular, consistent, persistent ongoing and even aggressive way (as long as your cashflow management is in good order).  I tend to like weekly buys for those who are in their earliest years of BTC accumulation, but surely there can be ways to tailor that too.. .so for example you might have a shitty paying job, but you figure out how much you can invest each week, and then maybe from time to time you get some kind of bonus or are able to do some other kind of work and so maybe from time to time you might have an additional lump sum amount (besides your regular weekly buys) that you can consider the extent to which you will 1) buy right away, 2) defer by time (DCA) and/or 3) defer by price (buy on dips that may or may not end up happening).

-I can also tell you that the biggest losses I had were renting money at the broker, or renting BTC.... hmmm I don't recommend that to anyone..... I had great gains renting..., my biggest losses, was also renting, so I don't make this mistake anymore.... and I miss BitMEX when it didn't require KYC.....

Leverage increases your costs, so of course, you have to figure out your ability to pay back if the price moves against you.  A common form of leverage is a loan, and so sometimes if a person can get favorable terms such as a long terms and low interest rates, then it might make sense to enter into such a load to front load your bitcoin investment, yet you also need to have an ability to service the loan and/or pay it off at the end of the term if the BTC price moves against you.  Leveraging does not tend to be necessary in bitcoin, even though from time to time, it could be strategically employed, and of course, MSTR/Saylor employs leveraging, yet he tends to be able to set good terms, which are frequently beyond the capability of many individuals to negotiate such favorable terms.

and so I have planned to only do trade wallet to wallet, I have not yet downloaded a 'DAO' wallet, but that would be my intention, since an omni usdt, I am afraid of having the funds blocked, and it is also very tiring to check address and the fees for btc are always the saltiest.... exch was free, I haven't found another one like exch, so doing trade wallet to wallet, I'm going to decrease the frequency and things will have to be well thought out before taking a descent. So, it means that I don't intend to stop with this strategy of mine.

I suppose you are learning through it, yet hard to know if you are pursuing a profitable strategy, and of course, you have to figure out those matters for yourself.

And also, I have never been and I will never be mad at you, for always questioning this strategy of mine. if not, I wouldn't even be here answering you, I'll answer when I can... since 'Buddy never answers me  Roll Eyes  hehehe....
#edit.
That's what happened to me when I sold it in 114, I thought everything would be fine, but....
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1106415657768034

Well yeah.. There are surely some hazards with some strategies, and you have had so many opportunties to accumulate bitcoin over the past 7 years, yet you still seem to believe that trading is your path forward.  The longer that it takes you to figure out that you need to build up your holdings through ongoing buying, then the longer that you are likely going to be spending spinning your wheels, and yeah, if you really do have a low income (with low discretionary income) then it could take a long time to build up a bitcoin portfolio, so for example, if you are ONLY able to invest 10% of your income into bitcoin, it is going to take you 10 years to invest 1 year's income into bitcoin, yet if you are able to figure out a way to invest 25% of your income into bitcoin, then it will only take you 4 years to invest a year's income into bitcoin.. .

So one of the questions might be how much discretionary income can you achieve in order to really build your bitcoin stash, and really to focus on building rather than fucking around and having fun.   Sure, there can be some fun in there, but likely it is better to limit your funzies to less than 10% the size of your bitcoin holdings, and focus on the building rather than the fun part.. so that maybe we don't need to hear about the ways that you are not treating bitcoin seriously....because if you are spending less than 10% on your trading, then that is a less important part of your bitcoin journey, and you might get that to  be included in the way you think about bitcoin too.. both good practices and good thoughts.  

You are surely not the ONLY one who gets sucked into trading and even sucked into trading way more of their portfolio than would be deemed reasonable and/or prudent... not that you want to be prudent, when you are having fun, right?

Removed all my mother's personal belongings from her home.
It's an emotional rolercoaster from tears to laughs, so many happy and warm memories.

Thankfully, i finally found the BTC seed backup hidden in a small space behind the wall that was not easy to find together with €5000 cash. Gave the money to my sister straight away without a second thought.

Of course those wallets are protected with a passphrase if the seed obtained by thieves, which is also hidden on another location in form of an birthdaycard with text is also in my possession again.

For sure one of the challenges of self-custody is to be able to pass on the information in a way that is sufficiently clear in order to put the pieces of the puzzle together.  It is o.k. to put together the pieces of the puzzle after the person has passed (or becomes incapacitated) in such a way that it may well be clear that the pieces of the puzzle should be put together in order to gain control over the assets, which truly should remind us that there may well be persons who either already lost control of keys or will end up losing control of keys due to the likely inabilities of heirs to be able to figure out how to gain custody over the keys.

---
Not that I ever did that, but I think that when you recover a wallet by a BIP-39 seed you need no passphrase, at least with some wallet software. Maybe it's worth checking if this is the case.
Using a Trezor which will need both the seed and passphrase to gain access the hidden wallet.

Just so guys understand how the BIP-39 passphrase works, you need the passphrase for any hidden wallet that you are retrieving.**

**Edit: After I posted, I see that AlcoHoDL had posted 40 minutes before me and outlined the basic ideas of a BIP-39 wallet and the significance of passphrases that can be used with BIP-39 wallets.

Trezor is not the ONLY company that uses BIP-39 and also passphrases.

Now if you find the seed which is usually either 12 words or 24 words (though there are some other possible quantities), then you enter that seed phrase into a some compatible hardware device, then the standard wallet will show (that is the wallet that does not need a passphrase).

The Trezor and many other wallets can create an infinite number of hidden wallets, and each of those wallets is created (and then subsequently accessed) by using a passphrase... so anyone who is recovering a wallet with a passphrase then if he gets the seedword, then he has access to the standard wallet, but if he wants to get into any of the hidden wallets he has to know the passphrase or to be able to guess it.

Let's say that I had a wallet and the passphrase was W@Observer.  Then I could have another one with W@Observer1, and then W@Observer2,
W@Observer3,
W@Observer4,
W@Observer5,
etc etc etc.

Each one creates a new wallet.. with 10 or more sub accounts within each wallet for each account type (and they have like 5 different account types that can be recognized within each wallet, such as legacy, segwit, legacy segwit, taproot, coinjoin).  So each wallet can have 50 bitcoin accounts, and it also can be shitcoin compatible and recognize a variety of shitcoins with the same seedphrase.  Trezor allows the firmware on the device to be bitcoin only or to be shitcoin compatible.

The passphrase is case sensitive, so w@observer would create a different wallet from W@Observer.  If I am recovering, I need to know that I have to get the exact case correct, including that I can also use symbols in the passphrase.
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September 12, 2025, 08:01:15 PM


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Johnlomape
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September 12, 2025, 08:07:25 PM
Merited by irhact (3), Hueristic (1)


The murder of Charlie Kirk has been arrested, a 22 years old boy.

It looks like he has no online presence, a typical plot!
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September 12, 2025, 09:01:17 PM


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September 12, 2025, 09:05:42 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Paashaas (1)

Removed all my mother's personal belongings from her home.

It's an emotional rolercoaster from tears to laughs, so many happy and warm memories.

Thankfully, i finally found the BTC seed backup hidden in a small space behind the wall that was not easy to find together with €5000 cash. Gave the money to my sister straight away without a second thought.

Of course those wallets are protected with a passphrase if the seed obtained by thieves, which is also hidden on another location in form of an birthdaycard with text is also in my possession again.

Not to question your setup, but these are vulnerable to property (house) destruction (say, by fire) if the passphrase is what being hidden as the actual device is less relevant, but I am glad that yours is OK.

I would question my ability to remember after a few years where things are.
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