[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[JoTheKhan]

You will not collect 106 BTC from CryptoTrade in a year.

That's a strange conclusion. I guess you mean you don't think there will be enough volume on CT because today it is dead?

Well, buyers follow the market. In other words, if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

Right... if and when that happens. But you are looking at at least a couple months form now. You will be lucky to see .5 BTC per day volume on there until then.

Nope you'll see more. There are some delusional people in here willing to buy for quite a bit > .0005 and there are plenty of people looking to sell.

[shadallion]

Fuck that. If the guy played with, lost and now owes monies then get it out of him in anyway possible. I don't know why anyone is arguing about or defending this sheister.

+1.  Fuck you, Ukyo.

[minerpart]

we will possibly (most likely)  go down to .0005.

I respect your opinion but look at it this way.

If ACtM can mine 1% of the bitcoins mined in 2014 - in other words if we can take and hold 1.25% of the global hash by beginning April - then we will mine 13,140 coins in 2014.
At current prices that is 13Mill dollars.

But lets assume an average price of Bitcoin of 5k USD in 2014 (10k USD target is widely talked about now for 2014) - so we will generate 5,000x13,140=65.7Million USD.
So Holding just 1.25% of global hash from April will make us 65.7 Mill USD in 2014.

Lets round that down to 50Mill in pure profit from mining.
Add 40Mill USD profit from chip orders for our 28nm chip in 2014
Add 10 Mill profit from chip orders for our 55nm chip
Add 25 Mill profit in miner sales for 2014.

You have a yearly profit of 125Mill USD.

Now to repay 0.0025BTC per share (10Mill publicly held shares) you need about 25Mill USD in todays price. But taking into account price rise of BTC through the year by say begining Q3 we would have 0.0025 paid back in full at a cost of 50Mill USD.

So the next 75Mill USD profit will be split between all shares (25Mill shares) giving a further div payout for the year of around 0.0006.

So in total each publicly held share will recieve approx  0.0031BTC in divs in 2014.


Now - a fair share price can be worked out when you know the expected total yearly divs. That's how professional investors value a stock.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dividend_yield

So if 0.0031 is paid to each share in a year then the listed share price is expected to be a certain multiple of that dividend payout. So for example if I get 1 dollar from a share each year I would be happy to pay 10dollars to hold that share - that's a 10% return and you won't get that in a bank. So a share price of 10x the annual dividend would be reasonable to many investors if the company was viewed as being on a sure footing.

In summary then: Predicted sales plus 1.25% of hash through 2014 gives an average share price of 0.031 BTC in 2014.

All IMO. Let's have a heated debate?

[knybe]

if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.  Start with an absurd premise, get an absurd conclusion

Wow what original noob cliché fodder. Ignore in full effect.

[Vigil]

minerpart, you are stuartuk.

[minerpart]

No but we have both looked at this and both worked it out with similar results. He and I both agree with this method of valuing the shares and want everyone to understand this. It is what professionals do to value any companies stock.

Let's talk about this valuation method.

[Bitdust]

if ACtM start making 100Mill USD pa then CT will quickly get very busy.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.  Start with an absurd premise, get an absurd conclusion

Wow what original noob cliché fodder. Ignore in full effect.

As girthy as your ignore list may be, your bragging contributes nothing to the topic of this thread - the tragicomic virtual entity called Active Mining Belize.
Kindly delete your posts.  If you can't stop yourself from posting altogether, do stay on topic.
thx

[Stuartuk]

Vigil, I'm not him and he's not me. I didn't invent dividend yield analysis but thanks for suggesting I might have.

Are you Bruce Willis?

[minerpart]

lol 

Hi Stu

[MilkyWayMasta]

http://www.tigerdirect.com/bitcoin/

Advertising Butterfly Labs, how awesome would it be to get ActiveMining equipment on TigerDirect.com when ACTM is ready?

[Bitdust]

No but we have both looked at this and both worked it out with similar results. He and I both agree with this method of valuing the shares and want everyone to understand this. It is what professionals do to value any companies stock.

Let's talk about this valuation method.

While usage of "we" could be written off as pompous royal plural, you consequently refer to yourself as "He and I."  That is an unmistakable sign of pathology.
Dial 911 and stay on the line until help arrives.

[minerpart]

Thanks, I will.




Pompous? How very DARE you.

[Vigil]

Your writing style and verbiage are exactly the same.

[lobbes]

we will possibly (most likely)  go down to .0005.

I respect your opinion but look at it this way.

If ACtM can mine 1% of the bitcoins mined in 2014 - in other words if we can take and hold 1.25% of the global hash by beginning April - then
...

This seems like a risky premise. I'm no expert, but isn't it safe to say that mining with 28nm even as early as February wouldn't make ROI? Nevermind the fact that ActM is just now taping out the 55nm.

[JoTheKhan]

Your writing style and verbiage are exactly the same.

Who cares if they are the same person. Their grandiose dreams are not reality at the moment. The only way our 55nm chips have a chance of selling out is if we peg the price to a fiat value (which Ken actually does) and then the price of BTC soars through the roof (the past market developments don't predict future market developments). BTC could crash before it goes sky high and ACTM could fail completely and be broke once that crash hits for all we know.

[Stuartuk]

Verbiage:

I could say the same about all you Yanks on here but I'm too polite.

Seriously if I didn't know miner and zum I would say I was talking to just one totally crazy American dude on here sometimes.

[minerpart]

isn't it safe to say that mining with 28nm even as early as February wouldn't make ROI?

For some retail machines you might be right.

Cost of equipment is key. We should be selling budget machines with our 55nm chip and they will ROI because despite being 55nm they will be cheap and they will be very very good custom-build chips. At the GH/W level they will be 65% of the Q2 20nm KnC Neptune.

https://coinplorer.com/Hardware

[Bitdust]

Verbiage:

I could say the same about all you Yanks on here but I'm too polite.

Seriously if I didn't know miner and zum I would say I was talking to just one totally crazy American dude on here sometimes.

It's tempting to give cattle endearing names like Bluebell and Stuartuk, but it makes for a sad day when they it finally has to be hauled to the Slaughterhouse.

[minerpart]

The only way our 55nm chips have a chance of selling out is if we peg the price to a fiat value (which Ken actually does) and then the price of BTC soars through the roof  

I don't think so. They need to be priced competitively to the other alternatives on the market, that's all. If BTC goes through the roof, it does so for everyone and all chips rise by the same desirability factor.

Unless you are talking about market supply running out because of high BTC and the resulting high demand for any hashable chip creating business.

[JoTheKhan]

The only way our 55nm chips have a chance of selling out is if we peg the price to a fiat value (which Ken actually does) and then the price of BTC soars through the roof  

I don't think so. They need to be priced competitively to the other alternatives on the market, that's all. If BTC goes through the roof, it does so for everyone and all chips rise by the same desirability factor.

Unless you are talking about market supply running out because of high BTC and the resulting high demand for any hashable chip creating business.

Yes I am talking about market supply running out because of high BTC and the resulting high demand. That is our best (only) bet for selling our 55nm chips realistically speaking. Now if we want to add fantasy and unicorns and stuff then hell we might have some rich idiot buy all our chips for 200% Mark up.