I have moved my below response from another thread to this thread, since it seems more fitting to this thread.
My words may seem a little messy, if I make any mistakes, please correct me. When I learn to understand all the topics, then I will be able to explain the right things to others.
No problem. Many of us are still learning, and of course, the kinds of things that we learn might be different, but sometimes it can take a lot of repetition before some of the terms might start to make sense. So for example, you might read some forum threads and get some ideas, and then maybe you will go try to apply the ideas and you will write down what you are learning, but then you might be writing questions about areas that you don't know, so then the list of what you don't know might seem way longer than the list of what you know... So yeah, repetition should help for some of the ideas to sink in and perhaps to help to direct you to areas in which you might want to focus learning, since some topics might seem more interesting and applicable as compared with other topics might seem like they don't really apply to your current areas of interest.
Feel free to ask me questions in this thread or even in the other thread, and sure some other guys might answer your questions too... and I might not always answer in ways that you would feel helpful or applicable to your own circumstances, yet part of that is your job to figure out how to apply the theory to your own situation...and to work out the parts that make sense and perhaps not apply the parts that don't make sense... and you might find yourself with your own system or you might end up screwing things up if you make some changes and then you realize that you ended up making mistakes in the way that you applied it or interpreted it, but if you are starting in small amounts, then you should be able to figure out ways to control your emotions about what you are doing and/or any BTC price moves that might come in the future.
Of course, if you are doing a lot of your own work and studying, then you willl also be able to present aspects of what you are doing and you don't necessarily need to be telling the truth about how much money you are using or where you live, yet you can still present information that might allow guys to learn from what you are doing... which is part of the justification for participating in a forum like this. I can remember some guys coming up with interesting ideas about how they were going to DCA and even they were going to give up certain kinds of junk food and bad habits and then use that money to buy bitcoin, and then poof.. they just disappeared... and sure by now some of them would have had become really rich, especially those guys who were doing that prior to 2021. Anyhow, each guy has to deal with his own life, so I am not blaming that some guys gave up on buying bitcoin (or at least gave up on posting about it).
I have been reading your investment posts for almost the whole day and trying to understand . I have written down the main points in the form of notes as you advise, and the points that I could not clear, I have written them myself. You have presented the issues very beautifully from the beginning to the end of the investment. You have explained the issues through realistic examples and have solved the problems of many. If I write in point form that I have understood after your post are as follows.
1. Before starting to invest in Bitcoin, we must have the desire to learn and can start investing with small amounts. Another thing is that we have to start investing with the money that is left after meeting basic needs. That is called discretionary income. I was never familiar with this word before, but it is a very important in investment, which I have seen mentioned repeatedly in your writing and the othe posts by those who post on investment issues.
Yep. it is good to have a bit of a grasp that you are investing ONLY with money that is left over after your basic expenses, which is your discretionary income. There might be fluctuation in that amount depending on your income and your expenses, which each can fluctuate.
2. Before investing, you should keep an amount equal to 3 to 6 months of expenses as an emergency back-up fund. If you have invested for a few years, if there is any financial problem, you can use the backup fund instead of selling Bitcoin.
I don't say that. I say that you need to have some back up funds (aka emergency funds) since you never want to invest from money that you need for your expenses, so you have to make sure that you don't mistakenly use money that you need for your expenses, and one of the best ways to protect from using money that you need for your expenses is to have back up funds, and I don't say that you need to build them up before you start. Instead, I suggest getting started as soon as you can, as long as you have discretionary income, and you are not going to know that you are ONLY using discretionary income if you don't have any back up.. ...
I also suggest to build your back up and your bitcoin investment at the same time until they each get up to 3 months invested into them, and then once you have three months, you can become even more aggressive because you have your back up funds in place. You have the option to build your back up funds faster than your bitcoin or your bitcoin faster than your back up funds. There is no strict rule. You have to figure out a balance that feels comfortable, and if your income and expenses is strong then you likely can build the bitcoin faster, but if your income and/or expenses are weak (or vary uncertain), then you likely need to build more cushion into your back up funds.
If you screw up in figuring a good balance in terms of how whimpy or aggressive you are, then you are going to be the one to pay for your screw up, so it is likely good to practice and to start out conservative while you are getting used to how your cashflow is working out, including if you are planning to invest in bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, then the money you put into bitcoin is locked up.. so you have to make sure that you ongoingly have enough cash to cover your expenses whether from regular income or from your back up funds during periods that your expenses are greater than your income.
Many folks come to bitcoin and they already have some back up funds that are in place that might add up to 2 weeks to 6 weeks of their expenses. If they already have some money that is serving as back up funds, then they would factor that in regards to how much bitcoin they might choose to buy.. and maybe they will buy bitcoin several weeks before they even add any more to their back up funds.
3. When buying Bitcoin, you have to buy it through DCA. I searched on Google and found that DCA means Dollar Cost Averaging. You have to buy Bitcoin with a certain dollar every month or week.
You have three options for buying. DCA, lump sum and buying on dips. DCA is a good way to start, and I think weekly is good too. You are the one who decides how you want to do it and/or how aggressive you are going to be.
For example, if you have $2k in income every month and $1,200 in expenses every month, then you have $800 in discretionary income.
You could choose to invest $100 per week into bitcoin and that would be right around $433 per month (since there are on average 4.33 weeks in each month). Maybe they choose to invest less in bitcoin so that they could build up their back up funds, but if they already have some back up funds, such as $800 worth of back up funds, maybe they decide to buy $100 worth of bitcoin for 8 weeks before they will start to add to their back up funds. There are a variety of ways to justify what they are going to do, and if they make mistakes they might either lose money or they might just have to tweak what they are doing.
Maybe they invest into bitcoin for 6-8 weeks and they start feeling stressed about their investment because the price is going down, so maybe they can make an adjustment, yet I don't know what that adjustment would need to be based on the price, since the price does not matter very much... what matters is their budget... So if their income goes up or down, they might have to adjust based on their income.. The same is true in regards to expenses.. so initionally the BTC price should not really matter very much since if they are investing for 4-10 years or longer, the price changes should not matter, and if they are getting concerned about the price changes, then maybe they have to invest less so that they don't worry about it so much... yet I am not even sure if investing less will resolve the problem.. since guys have to consider a variety of aspects of their
9 individual factors.
4. I am not very clear about the topic of Sustainable Withdrawal. I understand this by observing that you have a thread on this topic that if you have invested in Bitcoin for a long time, when the price of Bitcoin increases, you can sell Bitcoin from there and meet all your expenses.
In the beginning you are building up your investment so you are in your accumulation stage, and then later you will reach your maintenance stage and then later you will reach your liquidation phase (or sustainable withdrawal stage).
It is probably more important to concentrate on your accumulation stage first, since it can take a couple cycles or more before you get through your accumulation stage... and you have to do your various calculations regarding your goals... whether or not you are trying to get to fuck you status (a point where you can quit your job and live off of your bitcoin, and you don't just get to such a point magically).. even guys who have been in bitcoin for a long time, might not feel that they have reached such status, and even guys who front loaded their bitcoin investment by taking from other investments, they also might not feel that they have enough bitcoin. It seems to early for you to be getting distracted by sustainable withdrawal or even overaccumulation status, since you have to accumulate first.
I would suggest that even a guy that comes to bitcoin with a million dollars, he is not going to necessarily reach overaccumulation status without some passage of time, such as a whole cycle of having had invested, even though people can do what they like, even dumb shit. Investment tends to take a lot of time whether you invest gradually over a cycle or two or even if you might be able to front load your investment with some lump sum amounts to get it started.
5. You have prohibited waiting to buy Bitcoin at a low price in many places. The price decrease may be called DIP. Which is not correct to wait buy bitcoin at dip because it is not known how much Bitcoin will be.
I recommend ongoing buying rather than trying to buy dips, especially if you are investing from a regular income. You invest from your income as it comes in rather than waiting. If you want to hold some portion back for buying on dips, that is your choice, but you are probably going to be better to just buy every week rather than holding money back. It is up to you in regards to the extent that you think holding back and waiting for dips is a good strategy. since there have been plenty of times in bitcoin's history that waiting has not worked out very well.. I am not prohibiting anything, since ultimately each guy has to choose and live with the consequences of his choices... there have been plenty of guys who get themselves worked up because they are too busy trying to figure out when or when not to buy, and it probably puts them into a bad mindset as compared to guys who are regularly, consistently, persistently, ongoing and perhaps even aggressively buying...
It could take 4-8 years or longer before you realize the extent to which you made mistakes when you had choices earlier. Think about many guys coming into bitcoin in 2022, and if they were fucking around waiting about when to buy, they would have been worse off as compared with the guys who bought as much as they could as soon as the money came in.
Instead of getting started and buying right now, you might have some target price that you would like the bitcoin price to fall, which may or may not end up happening. I don't find it productive to be waiting for dips that might not happen, but you have to figure out for yourself what you want to do, and if you invest 80% of your bitcoin allowance right away and hold 20% for buying dips, I don't have any major problem with that plan, even though it may not end up being a good plan if you let it distract you from regularly buying, perhaps every week or when your cashflow situation allows it.
6. The investment period should be 4 to 10 years. It has been mentioned for a long time investment.
if you want to invest rather than trade then the timeline is likely greater than 10 years, and the only reason you would have less than 10 years would be based on age and/or health considerations. I recommend investing in bitcoin, not trading it.
You can do what you like. maybe you come in and you are not sure if you can commit to 10 years or longer, so you start out and you have your own opinion while you are considering perhaps keeping your money in bitcoin for 10 years or longer. Of course, you are in charge of your own money, so you can do what you like, but if you don't have a longer timeframe mindset, you might not be as committed to keeping your money in bitcoin and building it.
There are some folks who come to bitcoin and think of bitcoin as a trade, but then after they are in bitcoin for a while, they change their ways of thinking about it...
In late 2013 when I first came to bitcoin, I thought that I would keep it 1-2 years or longer, but I think that bitcoin was newer so it was harder to figure out having a longer investment timeline, yet my time in bitcoin got me thinking that bitcoin is an investment that has a minimum of a 4 year timeline, even though other folks think about bitcoin differently and they think about flipping bitcoin or trading waves. I don't agree with those ways of thinking about bitcoin, even though I understand that some people think about bitcoin in those kinds of shorter-term ways.
But I still don't understand some things. I have written the questions and I am mentioning them.
I would like to request everyone including JayJuanGee (if you have time ) to clear the issues for me.
Please explain in a simple way so that I can understand easily.
1. Overaccumulation status may mean having enough Bitcoin. But how do I understand what my Overaccumulation status is?
Let's say that in 2016, you had a $30k income and you spent nearly 10 years investing in bitcoin, and your income had gone up to $50k. In 2016 you started investing around $100 per week into bitcoin, yet as your income had gone up you increased the amount that you were investing into bitcoin. By now you had close to 20 bitcoin. Initially, you were thinking that if you could just get enough bitcoin to replace your income, then you would be comfortable that you have enough or more than enough bitcoin, yet in recent years you were thinking that if you could at least support yourself with an $80k per year income, then you would have enough bitcoin.
Personally, I think that
right now, if a guy had 14.5 BTC, then he has enough to start to live off of his bitcoin at a rate of $80k per year forever and ever (based on the 200-WMA value of such holdings).. He could even increase his withdrawal rate by 7% each year.
Now if the hypothetical guy has close to 20 BTC, then any BTC that he has greater than 14.5 BTC is an overaccumulated amount (beyond his income goals of $80k per year). Also each year, the amount of BTC needed to sustain an $80k per year income is going to be less and less and less.. so if the guy is withdrawing $80k per year, then his stash size is likely growing faster than his withdrawal rate, but if he has 25% more than his target withdrawal rate (20 BTC rather than 14.5 BTC) then he has accumulated more than he needs to sustain himself at $80k per year.
2. 4 to 10 years is a long time. How can I build patience and confidence mentally for such a long investment? I don't understand the issue of sustainable withdrawal, please clarify a little about how it will work. There were many mathematical terms in JayJuanGee's thread which seemed a bit complicated to me. If I don't need to know this right now, then I will try to understand it myself later.
You likely don't need to worry about overaccumulation status or sustainable withdrawal, since it likely would take quite a long time to reach such status, perhaps even longer than 4-10 years.
If you invest around 10% of your income per year into bitcoin, it would take you 10 years before you put a year of your income into bitcoin.. .and if you invest 25% of your income into bitcoin, it would take you 4 years to put 1 year of your income into bitcoin. You cannot know whether or how fast bitcoin will grow, even though the more you invest into bitcoin, the better off you are if its price ends up appreciating in value and you already have money in it.
You can monitor how much you put into bitcoin and how it grows over the years in order to determine at what point you might be reaching overaccumulation status. You measure based on your own goals and life circumstances.
3. I do a job and if I convert the income to dollars, it is about $750 per month. So if I start investing in Bitcoin from here, how do I view that investment as a retirement fund, future savings plan, or alternative investment?
If you don't have any other investment, then you just have the bitcoin. I think that it is o.k. to start out with just bitcoin and cash... and it is up to you if you feel that you need some other investments or if you are coming to bitcoin with other investments. If you don't have any other investments, and you decide to add other investments, then you likely are diluting your bitcoin investment. That is up to you too, in regards to how much money to put into bitcoin as compared with other places to put your money.
4. One thing I see many people talking about when it comes to investing in Bitcoin is emotional control. If the price drops, many people get scared and sell. I have no experience with this because I have not started investing yet. However, if such a situation arises after starting, how can I keep myself mentally stress-free?
Usually position size can be helpful, meaning if you are going to get emotional about $100 per week, then maybe cut back to $30 per week or some amount that will allow you to live your life and not get too worked up about it.
Many times guys get used to how to deal with their stack size, yet some guys are more emotional than others, so it might be difficult to figure out some kind of a balance to keep you from becoming emotional.. since if you invest too much, then you are emotional if the price goes down, yet if you invest too little then you will get emotional when the price goes up (because you will feel that you did not invest enough when the price was lower). Ultimately you have to attempt to figure a balance that prepares you for either direction and both directions... Also, if you are buying every week, the weekly buys will help to reinforce your investment but also might motivate you to research further into bitcoin (since you will be adding additional value every week). .. Even $30 per week would be $1,560 invested per year and $15,600 after 10 years. Relatively small amounts can add up towards being a lot invested.
5. The thing that has made me very curious is that the price of Bitcoin keeps going up and down. In fact, for what reason does the price of Bitcoin go up or down?
Bitcoin is inevitably volatile and we do not know which direction in the short term. We invest into it since we presume that ultimately it will trend upwards, especially in the long term (even though it is not guaranteed to trend upwards in the long term).
I am trying to gain mental strength, courage, and a passion for Bitcoin to enter the world of Bitcoin very soon. If I hadn't come to this forum, I would never have known that Bitcoin topics are so broad and that there is such a huge market for Bitcoin.
Start out small and study it. Bitcoin is a very interesting topic, and it can take years and years to really get to know it, and even guys like me who have been in bitcoin for 12 years, we still have ongoing ways to study bitcoin.