How Long Should You Hold Bitcoin for a Passive Income

[UchihaSarada]

Alternative and more realistic calculation:

Situation 2025: You have 1 BTC and want to have, each 4 years, the same amount in USD. The rest will be sold or spent as "passive income".

Price evolution:

Let's say that we hit a 140,000 ATH this year and have then new ATHs each 4 years with 70% of the previous cycle profit.

- 2025: 140,000 (100% profit compared to previous ATH of 69,000$)
- 2029 240.000 $ (70% previous ATH - 0.7 * 100%)
- 2033 360.000 $ (49% previous ATH - 0.7 * 70%)
- 2037 480.000 $ (34% previous ATH - 0.7 * 49%)
- 2041 600.000 $ (24% previous ATH - 0.7 * 34%)

Bitcoin has its block subsidy changes and halves by every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks and if people have knowledge about Bitcoin controlled supply and the future supply as well as market cycles related to Bitcoin block subsidy halves, they will time the market better.

It's definitely impossible to predict price and time the market correctly but knowing about Bitcoin controlled supply and market cycle history can help.
Bitcoin controlled supply.
Bitcoin halving dates and history.

[DanWalker]

No cycle is 100% same as a past cycle and this market cycle can have a first time in Bitcoin market history that price fails to x2 from ATH of a previous market cycle. I won't feel too disappointed if it happens as with time and market cycles, Bitcoin price increases so its market cap rises too. Consequently, to x2 its price from a previous market's ATH, it needs to have bigger capital in the market. It has become harder and harder to repeat past ROIs in latest ROIs and Bitcoin market cycle ROIs will be shrinked with time.

The larger the capitalization, the slower the growth rate and this applies to every asset, bitcoin is no exception. This is basic knowledge in investing but many people still don't even grasp it, especially newbies.
While the price of bitcoin has risen significantly from its low of $15k in 2022, but it has not even doubled from its peak four years ago. Over the past four years, bitcoin's market capitalization has grown from just $1 trillion to more than $2 trillion. Are people intentionally ignoring this or do they really not know? I wonder how bitcoin can reach $21 trillion in the next 10 years as many people claim.

I believe Bitcoin will have price of $1 million for 1 BTC in the future but honestly I don't know when and even don't mind to make my prediction when it happens.

It will reach 1 million, but the question is when and I don't believe it can be achieved before 2030 or in the next century as many predict.

[cryptoaddictchie]

I dont know if thats called passive investment but probably value maturity for bitcoin. Its a coin with proof of works so it cant be staked. You dont earn anything from it from holding like a typical staking where you earn from it weekly or monthly. But the price changes through the year by its value increasing not increasing from the very first time you hold it.

[boyptc]

It will reach 1 million, but the question is when and I don't believe it can be achieved before 2030 or in the next century as many predict.

No one knows when it will be reached.

And having that set of plan for each year of sale. I think it's a good plan say that it's already huge amount in pricing. It's time for an individual to sell to enjoy the patience he's exerted to hold bitcoin.

With so optimistic minds that we'll hold until we can. Do not forget that you have some moments to enjoy it with and to show yourself of how patient you are while holding it.

You deserve to hold and then sell some for either a vacation, some nice food that you'll savor or etc. The world is too stressful and so don't stress yourselves about how long you'll hold and sell.

Sell, when you're happy but never sell all.

[Publictalk792]

I'm afraid you're being too optimistic to the point that you seem detached from reality. If you plot your predictions on a graph, it would look far from the graph that contains Bitcoin's actual performance in the past. You seem to have even completely disregarded bear seasons. Annual growths are also too high. It's simply unrealistic.

I guess it's enough for us to stack as much Sats as possible and avoid setting timelines. We're in an uncertain market. We stack Sats, hodl, and take profit at the best possible time. Also, let's have our main sources of income outside Bitcoin investment. It doesn't seem prudent to assume a generous annual yield from it.

You are right that it is good to be realistic and not overly optimistic with Bitcoin predictions especially since market has ups and downs. Good strategy is to simply buy and hold Bitcoin for long term and sell when time is right other than trying to perfectly time market. It is also good idea to have other ways of making money means diversifying your money and not rely on Bitcoin as your main source of income as this is much safer way to manage your finances.

[Judith87403]

It all depends on your investment goal, I can decide to invest and HODL for like 4 to 5 years or more so as to enable the profit get matured Before attempting to sell some portion. While some investors will not be  patient enough to HODL thier bitcoin till this time probably 8 to 10 months they start attempting to sell thier holdings, so it all depends on your target and one thing that would also help in achieving your goal/ target is how discipline you're if you are not discipline enough you can decide to sell your holdings for short term profit due to the volatile nature of bitcoin as you will be tempted to sell whenever there is a massive increase in the value. sometimes you can decide to sell due to panic probably when there is a dip in the price, so is all about being discipline to enable you stay focused regardless the market condition.

[Wakate]

I don't know if I will call this future price speculation of Bitcoin which is cool but the price are quite outrageous if I am not wrong here. This is not about been optimistic about the future of Bitcoin but about expressing the right motive.
It's important also for us to understand that the market has two phases which is the bear market and the bull market and for all these to happen at intervals, it's going to take the market quite sometime for the price of Bitcoin to hit 900k and I am not talking about 10 years coming. The setup is clear and I am going for the price of Bitcoin to hit the bull speculation.

[Die_empty]

I'm afraid you're being too optimistic to the point that you seem detached from reality. If you plot your predictions on a graph, it would look far from the graph that contains Bitcoin's actual performance in the past. You seem to have even completely disregarded bear seasons. Annual growths are also too high. It's simply unrealistic.

I guess it's enough for us to stack as much Sats as possible and avoid setting timelines. We're in an uncertain market. We stack Sats, hodl, and take profit at the best possible time. Also, let's have our main sources of income outside Bitcoin investment. It doesn't seem prudent to assume a generous annual yield from it.

Good advice, mate.
Nothing is certain in the crypto industry. Most people didn't predict that the SEC would approve Bitcoin Spot ETF last year. But the approval had a great impact on the market. Who knew that Donald Trump would campaign with cryptocurrency? Every Bitcoin circle comes with a different experience, making the unpredictable. Invest the amount you can afford to live without, keep learning and don't expect too much.    

[Free Market Capitalist]

The amount of your illustration is too huge, it's not able to be achieved by Average Joe.

The thing is, the average Joe is not going to be in a position to live off passive income. Maybe 0.01% of those with a normal salary, but not the average Joe as such. The point here is to accumulate enough bitcoin to allow you to live off it from then on and forget about buying more. Not only can you sell, you can also borrow against it.

[God Of Thunder]

To give you a perspective, when ETFs entered the scene in 2024, over the course of another ~20 months, the market cap grew by 1.2T, so we'd need to almost double that and not per 20 months, but every 12 months to reach 20T in 10 years. Where do you expect this money to come from?

Inflation can help!
The USD value would go low as fuck, and the government would keep printing the USD. You would spend 100 transaction fees for one transaction, 100 for a cofee, and so on. So, in 10 years, the price of Bitcoin may grow in USD value, but in reality, it will remain almost the same. I am too bad when it comes to explaining things, but I believe you got my point.

I personally do not expect Bitcoin to reach a million dollars in the next few years. But it is not impossible to reach the million dollars after almost a decade. I am sure inflation will play a big role here.

[hero_the_bossman]

Good advice, mate.
Nothing is certain in the crypto industry. Most people didn't predict that the SEC would approve Bitcoin Spot ETF last year. But the approval had a great impact on the market. Who knew that Donald Trump would campaign with cryptocurrency? Every Bitcoin circle comes with a different experience, making the unpredictable. Invest the amount you can afford to live without, keep learning and don't expect too much.    

We may only adapt to what's happening on the broader stage.

And that's truly why crypto space is beautiful, you always have something to learn for.

[EluguHcman]

Looks like this is just for fun because you estimate that bitcoin will be trading at almost $1m in 10 years, which would be very difficult to achieve and I'll tell you why. In the last 10 years, so from 2015 -2025 bitcoin's market cap grew from 3.5 B to 2.2 T USD. That would have to go up 10x in the next 10 years. meaning we'd need an inflow of additional 20 T USD!
To give you a perspective, when ETFs entered the scene in 2024, over the course of another ~20 months, the market cap grew by 1.2T, so we'd need to almost double that and not per 20 months, but every 12 months to reach 20T in 10 years. Where do you expect this money to come from?

I will say you are right. The liquidity of the  market has loosen it driving force with how fast far the market cap has influence volatilities with how great the price has long experienced.

So to expect such driving force within the same range of time as it was in the past 10 years, we would need a more adoption force that would multiply the current market cap so that, liquidity can gain higher momentum to control volatility towards uptrends.
Noting quite how pressure (difficult) it was for the ETF and institution companies to had adopted the concept with the rate of their aggressive buying and accumulating of Bitcoin that influences the current market positions,  it will be difficult to see such an advanced force in the just short 10 years ahead.

However, we are still all speculating.

[bitbuzz001]

Well, there’s no fixed time! Bitcoin isn’t guaranteed passive income. Most who do well hold for years and treat it as a long-term bet rather than a quick return.

[Isay]

Alternative and more realistic calculation:

Situation 2025: You have 1 BTC and want to have, each 4 years, the same amount in USD. The rest will be sold or spent as "passive income".

Price evolution:

Let's say that we hit a 140,000 ATH this year and have then new ATHs each 4 years with 70% of the previous cycle profit.

- 2025: 140,000 (100% profit compared to previous ATH of 69,000$)
- 2029 240.000 $ (70% previous ATH - 0.7 * 100%)
- 2033 360.000 $ (49% previous ATH - 0.7 * 70%)
- 2037 480.000 $ (34% previous ATH - 0.7 * 49%)
- 2041 600.000 $ (24% previous ATH - 0.7 * 34%)

We simplify greatly here: let's say 2025-28, 2029-32 etc. the price is exactly the same and then it jumps to the next level.

You then need the following amount of BTC to hold your USD value. The difference between your current holdings and the holdings at the "last level" is the payout you can afford without losing USD value:

- 2025-28: 1 BTC - no payout
- 2029-32: 0.58 BTC - payout; 0.42 BTC in 4 years, 0.105 BTC per year, ~0.009 BTC per month (2200$)
- 2033-36: 0.38 BTC - payout: 0.2 BTC in 4 years, 0.05 BTC per year, ~0.005 BTC per month (1700$)
- 2037-40: 0.29 BTC - payout: 0.09 BTC in 4 years, 0.0225 BTC per year, ~0.002 BTC per month (960$)
- 2041-44: 0.23 BTC - payout: 0.06 BTC in 4 years, 0.015 per year, ~0.0011 BTC per month (660$)

So you get the idea, right? With a shrinking volatility there is no stable passive income, instead the value you can afford to pay out gets lower and lower. Nevertheless the idea may not be that bad.

Even if it is as you drew it still does not change anything, yes, the price can grow much more slowly but it will still grow and in any case, due to the constant growth, you can make a profit by simply selling a small part of the bitcoin each time and not reducing the value in dollars or reducing it slightly but over a very long period of time.

[d5000]

Bitcoin has its block subsidy changes and halves by every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks and if people have knowledge about Bitcoin controlled supply and the future supply as well as market cycles related to Bitcoin block subsidy halves, they will time the market better.

Halvings do not really lead directly to price increases anymore. Most of the 2023-25 bull occurred before the 2024 halving and the main factor were probably the US ETFs and not protocol-related supply issues.

This can be explained quite easily: The miners' subsidies are making up now far less than 1% of the total Bitcoin sales volume. According to sites like Coingecko the total volume is in the 20-100 billion USD range, and miners' ~450 BTC per day (~50 million) is a tiny proportion of it.

Yes, the limited supply is one of the things that make Bitcoin attractive, but this is known since 2009, thus already priced in for a long time. I guess what you wanted to express is that the limited supply could bring the prices closer to the OP's prediction of several millions, but I disagree here. At least prices above 10 million are IMO impossible without an USD hyperinflation. I don't rule out a million or 2-3 millions though, but probably much later than in the 2030s.

Market timing was ignored in my list, I wanted it to be as simple as possible so I didn't take into account bearish dips like in 2022 or 2018.

Even if it is as you drew it still does not change anything, yes, the price can grow much more slowly but it will still grow and in any case, due to the constant growth, you can make a profit by simply selling a small part of the bitcoin each time and not reducing the value in dollars or reducing it slightly but over a very long period of time.

The point of my post is that there is no constant growth (in the sense of 1% daily or so) but rather a diminishing volatility which also affects the price growth. Look at this graph I posted some weeks ago:


(Source: Bitbo)

That's why a constant passive income with "hodl and sell alone" is imo impossible to achieve. If you can make your Bitcoins "work" in some sense, e.g. investing or lending them, then it is another story. You could also try a hybrid of "invest + hold&sell".

[Isay]

Even if it is as you drew it still does not change anything, yes, the price can grow much more slowly but it will still grow and in any case, due to the constant growth, you can make a profit by simply selling a small part of the bitcoin each time and not reducing the value in dollars or reducing it slightly but over a very long period of time.

The point of my post is that there is no constant growth (in the sense of 1% daily or so) but rather a diminishing volatility which also affects the price growth. Look at this graph I posted some weeks ago:


(Source: Bitbo)

That's why a constant passive income with "hodl and sell alone" is imo impossible to achieve. If you can make your Bitcoins "work" in some sense, e.g. investing or lending them, then it is another story. You could also try a hybrid of "invest + hold&sell".

Everything is possible, it is not necessary to look at the volatility chart, you can look at the growth chart and it is constant, I am not proving that this is a 100% guarantee of receiving money, ideally not only to hold but also to multiply using DCA and other methods, but the option of simple holding worked before, why shouldn't it work now? Not everyone can do something like this and using DCA is essentially using additional money, not everyone has it either (although if there is money for 1 bitcoin then there should be money))) most likely I want to say that people are mostly very lazy and do not want to do anything and most often they save up, buy an apartment and rent it out on a long-term lease stupidly without earning anything, this is more for such people.)

[virasog]

Topic Description:
This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.

Goal:
To calculate the amount of Bitcoin required so that, over time, one can start selling portions of it and receive a stable income of at least $100,000 per year for a minimum of 30 years.

Well, there is no doubt that bitcoin will increase in value over the years, though its ratio can be high or low in the coming years, but overall its price will always be increasing. But the problem is when you will sell bitcoin to get profits ?

In order for passive income, you need to sell and get some money in hand. Investing in Bitcoin and not selling it for 10 or 15 years can be termed as passive income but it is an investment.
For example, when you invest in any property and you keep it for many years until you sell it. So you will say that you are invested in property and it is not a passive income. Same logic stands if you are invested in long term in bitcoin BTC.

[Isay]

Topic Description:
This topic is dedicated to calculations and discussions on the strategy of holding Bitcoin to ensure long-term passive income.

Goal:
To calculate the amount of Bitcoin required so that, over time, one can start selling portions of it and receive a stable income of at least $100,000 per year for a minimum of 30 years.

Well, there is no doubt that bitcoin will increase in value over the years, though its ratio can be high or low in the coming years, but overall its price will always be increasing. But the problem is when you will sell bitcoin to get profits ?

In order for passive income, you need to sell and get some money in hand. Investing in Bitcoin and not selling it for 10 or 15 years can be termed as passive income but it is an investment.
For example, when you invest in any property and you keep it for many years until you sell it. So you will say that you are invested in property and it is not a passive income. Same logic stands if you are invested in long term in bitcoin BTC.

Any spending of money to receive passive income from this in the future is always called an investment, there is no difference what you invest in, in real estate or in bitcoin, the result will always be the same = you receive passive income from this, many say that bitcoin can stop growing, but the same thing can happen with other investments, investing in an apartment you can receive less income due to the reasons for the decline in the real estate market and a decrease in income and very frequent repairs after tenants,

You need to understand one thing, any investment is primarily a risk and it is proportionate to the risks, the riskier the investment, the greater the income, you have probably seen other predictions about bitcoin and they are 2-3 times more than the one I wrote (I do not pretend to have exact numbers, they are naturally approximate) but the fact remains that bitcoin can do this simply because it did this before and until the growth trend breaks (and it has not broken and is still working great) talk about what it won't grow as much as before, there's no point.

[d5000]

Everything is possible, it is not necessary to look at the volatility chart, you can look at the growth chart and it is constant, I am not proving that this is a 100% guarantee of receiving money, ideally not only to hold but also to multiply using DCA and other methods, but the option of simple holding worked before, why shouldn't it work now?

Well but the point I'm trying to make is that there is no constant growth. Constant in the sense that the exponential "growth rate" stays the same for several years.

The volatility chart indeed is not showing the whole picture (volatility can also be ramp up by short-term variations), it only hints to a tendency. So I checked the yearly average price on Jan 1 (prices in $) and calculated a 4 year average from 2014 on:

2011: 0.30
2012: 5
2013: 13
2014: 770
2015: 315
2016: 428
2017: 1010
2018: 13500
2019: 3800
2020: 7200
2021: 28800
2022: 47000
2023: 16000
2024: 42000
2025: 94000

Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-price.html#alltime

2014: 197
2015: 275 (39%)
2016: 381 (38%)
2017: 630 (65%)
2018: 3810 (500%)
2019: 4680 (23%)
2020: 6377 (36%)
2021: 13325 (108%)
2022: 21700 (62%)
2023: 24750 (14%)
2024: 33450 (35%)
2025: 49750 (48%)

Despite the varying numbers the tendency is very clear: the growth is decreasing. The 2018 growth of 500% was never reached again (the reason why we don't have higher values pre-2015 is that we don't have price data for pre-2011, we would have around 1000% otherwise for 2014). The well known rainbow charts show exactly the same tendency.

most likely I want to say that people are mostly very lazy and do not want to do anything and most often they save up, buy an apartment and rent it out on a long-term lease stupidly without earning anything, this is more for such people.)

The thing is that a realistic view doesn't prove your idea: if you want passive income, an apartment is indeed better than the "HODL and sell Bitcoin" plan. The only advantage of BTC is that real estate will need work from your part. So with BTC you can be a bit lazier, but you won't get the same type of passive income. Again, taking things like lending into account is another story.

[el kaka22]

Passive income with bitcoin doesn't happen this way. There are plenty of places that gives %2-4 yearly return, in bitcoins. So if you give 100 bitcoins to them, they give you on average 3 bitcoins per year for it, and that is why we can't really see this change that easily.

I would say that is the reason why people make passive income, they just put it in places like that and make that much return and they are happy with that. If they really want to make some money then they are going to get a lot better returns that way and when the price goes up that means your %3 becomes higher and you are going to get a lot better money. So when you do that at bitcoin at 100k, you get 3k, but when you do it at 200k you get 6k.