The lower the price goes, the less risky to buy Bitcoins

[Abelly]

I very much agree that the lower the price goes the less risky to buy Bitcoin but the question is how do we know how low price will dip at anytime. If we cannot accurately answer this question it means that we can buy when we have funds to buy. At the price you buy Bitcoin now will become dip sooner or later so why wait for the perfect buying opportunity that you don't know when or if it can happen at your expectation.

If every investors are sure that in the next few days Bitcoin will dip 30% from it's current price we will all relax and wait. The reality is that we don't know that is why I prefer DCA method of buying, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to reach ATH and give me profit.

No one can say for sure when the price will drop, this is the natural uncertainty of the market, many people wait for years to find the perfect entry, and the opportunity is missed. The reality is that the market will always fluctuate, and no matter what price you buy at, there is always a chance that it will go down in the future.

This is exactly why DCA is the most realistic strategy for many investors. Buying short when you have the funds reduces the pressure of market timing. If everyone really knew that the price would drop by 30%, the market would have reflected that information in the price long ago, because if everyone had waited, the price would never have dropped that much.

I believe, like you, that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH in the long run. So buying slowly and regularly is the most logical way.

[uche6215]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

Bitcoin investment risk is at all time but you benefit more when you buy the low price and the risk comes in the purchasing time of the lower price will depends on the time frame of the investment as you said in the second paragraph of your Op. If the investor is for short term investor, there would be very high risk and also al depends on the fast recovering movement of bitcoin. If it is fast then the investor would make profit but if it is slow then he has to extend his plan for a long term.

[Ambatman]

I want to have this confidence where I won't believe any price currently is a top but a discount
I stopped accumulating personally since we crossed $100K and have started again though under $85K.
Am I sure we won't go lower? No I'm not but doesn't stop me from adding more. Since I understand the risk as well as the reward.

Like you said volatility is reducing, if you check the dips per year you'd notice that it's reducing
Year by year.
Chances of Bitcoin crossing $200K is higher than it falling to $40K
So I'd take my chance and add more now.

[coolcoinz]

- 30% that we will have a heavily bearish next year. I would consider everything significantly (10% less) below the 2021 ATH (69k) as "heavily bearish". In short: a fall below 60k. This could happen for example if Strategy really runs into difficulties (unlikely in 2025/26,  but may become a fear for 2028+). Or if another big 2022 style hack occurs. Or if Tether falls.
- 25% lightly bearish scenarios, like a dip into the 60-75k territory and then a very slow recovery.
- 25% that the bull market will continue and until early 2026 we'll see 100k+ prices  again.
- 20% of a sideways scenario, either in the current region (around 75-90ish k) or a bit higher (e.g. around 100k). The argument for this scenario is that there may be neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative trends in adoption. And it would be basically a continuation of the lowering volatility pattern.

Definitely too bearish for my taste

IMO there's literally not a single reason apart from maybe a stock market crash that would explain a heavily bearish scenario. You gave it 30%? Why?
Also, to me a 75-90k is not a real sideways scenario. We've made it above 90k just days after you've posted it. There's really high chance that we'll go over 100k next year in a sideways scenario.
For me a sideways market is any price below the ATH, so going to 126k and getting rejected back to 100k is a sideways market, not a bull market.

Personally, I'd give it maybe 10% of a 50% crash from the ATH.
40% that this is going to be a sideways year with price ranging from 70k at the lows to the ATH, but not breaking it.
50% that we'll make a new high in 2026.

That said, of course 80k is a great price to buy, especially that we've reached all time lows in extreme fear, the levels seen during the FTX collapse. You rarely get an opprtunity like that.

[promise444c5]

I personally DCA, the forum money as well is another DCA on its own.. I’m not usually worried about the upside or the downside either, only concerned with the unit.. I do get the dip sometimes, but I feel I buy it too early, yet my DCA still covers the long ones

Only in the "heavily bearish" scenario a buy in the 80k region is really a loss in the mid-term.

Well, not really a loss.. Like I already mentioned, the unit is what really matters. When you focus on the price too much, you might end up thinking you’re at a loss and that might hinder you from buying more at that moment . Yeah, maybe at that moment, comparing with the fiat prices, but just as you’ve also mentioned, it will still recover so long as they can wait it out.

[d5000]

IMO there's literally not a single reason apart from maybe a stock market crash that would explain a heavily bearish scenario. You gave it 30%? Why?

My most significant reason for such a heavy crash is the still prevalent "cyclic" sentiment in the Bitcoin community. The fear that it will lose 75-80% again could lead to such a crash, or more precisely, to a "depression" or "crypto winter" with a low below 60k. And the scenario would already be "triggered" if we only "crashed" 55% (60k is about 47% of 126k, so any 53%+ crash / drawdown is already in this scenario.)

And a stock market crash could also "help" in this case to drive the price again to mid-2024 levels.

30% is not that high taking all these things into account. I would love for this risk to be lower, but I still believe it is significant.

Also, to me a 75-90k is not a real sideways scenario. We've made it above 90k just days after you've posted it. There's really high chance that we'll go over 100k next year in a sideways scenario.
For me a sideways market is any price below the ATH, so going to 126k and getiong rejected back to 100k is a sideways market, not a bull market.

Can agree on that. "Sideways" for me is everything between the March 2025 low (75k) and the 126k ATH. I only mentioned these levels because the price remained there for some time, so if history repeats, 80-90ish and 105-115k(ish) would be levels where the price could "sleep". If the price goes up to 126k, I expect it either to break (and trigger the bullish scenario) or to fall down in the 110k area again. It's unlikely imo that it will stay at 120k, so short of a new ATH.

[dunfida]

I very much agree that the lower the price goes the less risky to buy Bitcoin but the question is how do we know how low price will dip at anytime. If we cannot accurately answer this question it means that we can buy when we have funds to buy. At the price you buy Bitcoin now will become dip sooner or later so why wait for the perfect buying opportunity that you don't know when or if it can happen at your expectation.

If every investors are sure that in the next few days Bitcoin will dip 30% from it's current price we will all relax and wait. The reality is that we don't know that is why I prefer DCA method of buying, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to reach ATH and give me profit.

No one can say for sure when the price will drop, this is the natural uncertainty of the market, many people wait for years to find the perfect entry, and the opportunity is missed. The reality is that the market will always fluctuate, and no matter what price you buy at, there is always a chance that it will go down in the future.

This is exactly why DCA is the most realistic strategy for many investors. Buying short when you have the funds reduces the pressure of market timing. If everyone really knew that the price would drop by 30%, the market would have reflected that information in the price long ago, because if everyone had waited, the price would never have dropped that much.

I believe, like you, that Bitcoin will reach a new ATH in the long run. So buying slowly and regularly is the most logical way.

Nobody can ever know how low the price will go or when it will happen people spend so much time waiting for that perfect bottom and end up missing good opportunities to build their position the market doesn’t move based on what we expect it moves based on overall sentiment and liquidity which are things we can’t predict accurately.

That’s why DCA works so well it takes out the guesswork and emotional pressure from timing the market instead of stressing about whether it’s too high or too low you just keep buying at intervals and let time smooth out the average entry price this approach might not sound exciting but it’s the one that actually works in the long run. Bitcoin’s history shows that every dip eventually becomes a good buying opportunity for those who held on so there’s no point in waiting for the perfect entry the important thing is to stay consistent and patient because over time the market rewards discipline more than timing.

[JeffBrad12]

80k has been pretty good opportunity for people to seeking cheap bitcoin for their DCA. I can put more money and my cost is still pretty low.
The momentum is actually building slowly with bitcoin, i'm sure there are tons of people accumulating right now although the volume looking steady.

Bitcoin at 90k when not too long ago we are at $125k? I take that as a huge discount. It's like buying 1 dollar at  the cost of 0.8 dollar.

[reagansimms]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

In my opinion, that statement is not entirely true because a lower Bitcoin price does not mean that the risk of investing in Bitcoin is lower, the risk will always be there regardless of the price. Its price can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably, making it the most frightening risk for investors who are not ready to take risks. Furthermore, regulatory changes can affect the price and availability of Bitcoin, not to mention security risks such as hacking and global economic conditions.
Investors who are familiar with Bitcoin market conditions and believe in its long-term potential will take advantage of lower prices to buy Bitcoin at a low price. However, those who are just starting to invest in Bitcoin must ensure and understand the risks so as not to invest more than they can afford.

[coolcoinz]

My most significant reason for such a heavy crash is the still prevalent "cyclic" sentiment in the Bitcoin community. The fear that it will lose 75-80% again could lead to such a crash, or more precisely, to a "depression" or "crypto winter" with a low below 60k. And the scenario would already be "triggered" if we only "crashed" 55% (60k is about 47% of 126k, so any 53%+ crash / drawdown is already in this scenario.)

And a stock market crash could also "help" in this case to drive the price again to mid-2024 levels.

30% is not that high taking all these things into account. I would love for this risk to be lower, but I still believe it is significant.

I really feel like the 4 year cycle theory is still being pushed by a few youtubers who refuse to accept that these 80% crashes have been changing every cycle.
For instance, there's a realized price chart out there (made by glassnode) and according to it, bitcoin has been correcting less and less every bear market.  
In 2015 the price went 45% below the RP, in 2018 30% and in 2022 only 21% - so the market matures. Now with ETFs it's going to be even less. Current RP is is $56k and it's on the rise, so 6 months from now it's going to be $60k. Even if we were to hit the same correction as in 2022 and hit the bottom in 10 months, 20% below the RP, that would still be $50k, which means ~60%.

I feel like bitcoin is too small and too dependent on stocks and politics to have its own repeating pattern that cannot be changed. In fact it has been changing in all these previous "cycles" influenced by external factors. 2014 Chinese exchange ban, 2017 launch of CME futures, 2020 covid lockdown, followed by stimulus, 2021 Chinese mining ban, 2023 Trump pump, followed by tariff dump. We can only pray that the US stock market doesn't dump in 2026 and there's no war over Taiwan or something.

The most bullish pattern for bitcoin is world peace, meaning the end of the conflict in Ukraine, no tariffs on China and the EU, and so on.
Of course your 30% is completely fine if we take into account bad scenarios in politics. In worst ones, like a start of war between Russia and NATO, or USA vs China over Taiwan, we could see an 80% crash again induced by stock traders running for their lives.

[d5000]

In 2015 the price went 45% below the RP, in 2018 30% and in 2022 only 21% - so the market matures. Now with ETFs it's going to be even less. Current RP is is $56k and it's on the rise, so 6 months from now it's going to be $60k. Even if we were to hit the same correction as in 2022 and hit the bottom in 10 months, 20% below the RP, that would still be $50k, which means ~60%.

That's interesting. I didn't really bother too much about the realized price indicator, as it was a bit of a very theoretic concept for me. For example, it is distorted by Satoshi's coins and other "lost early miners' coins", and of course cannot take into account the vast majority of Bitcoin users (I would say 60-70%+) who hold all their coins on exchanges or custodial wallets.

But I guess it is distorted in the same way in all recent "cycles" (Satoshi's coins were present at all times, and from the MtGox era on most Bitcoiners unfortunately would hodl their coins at least partly on exchanges) so this observation may have some merit.

I feel like bitcoin is too small and too dependent on stocks and politics to have its own repeating pattern that cannot be changed. In fact it has been changing in all these previous "cycles" influenced by external factors.

Agree, I recently started a whole thread about that, I would add other sources of the price movements outside of "stocks and politics" like Bitcoin exchange hacks, but the cycles for me can all be explained quite well. (I just saw you posted there, perhaps I'll answer soon.)

The most cyclic element I acknowledge are the sentiment changes. I think we can't deny there are phases where Bitcoin achieves a quite high attention span of the average population, and others where it doesn't. And it can also be explained quite well with mass psychology that these phases normally need some time to develop. Thus I think we will always have clear bear and bull markets of a length of at least several months each - just because in the bullish phase the general public needs time to pick up with attention, and in the bearish phase it takes a while to wane away.

But I question the striking influence of halvings on that pattern some people assume (due to the quantitatively limited relevance of miners as BTC sellers with far less than 1% of the daily supply), and thus I don't think the 4 year cycle is a "reality" (outside of coincidence and self-fullfilling prophecy).

The most bullish pattern for bitcoin is world peace, meaning the end of the conflict in Ukraine, no tariffs on China and the EU, and so on.

I think that still could be true, but in a less volatile future, Bitcoin could rival gold as a crisis hedge asset, as it "naturally" doesn't have such a strong correlation to the real economy compared to the stock market. A stock needs dividends or revenue growth to be able to increase in price, and that depends on real demand for the company's products i.e. sales. While Bitcoin also benefits from people having spare money to invest in it, the connection is much looser*, very similar to with gold. I think however this will only happen if enough potential investors convince themselves that Bitcoin can serve as a crisis hedge, and that the stock market correlation is not a law of nature (I believe it exists only because investors/traders still don't have a good independent fundamental Bitcoin price theory and thus "hang" on the stock market).


*Example: Bitcoin won't go "bankrupt" in an economic crisis. Any company can go bankrupt, which means that its stocks will then tend to 0.

[Joy- maker]

- 80k is in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.
 

I can agree with you that 80k is a good buying price for those Investors who want to buy the dip, than buying at 110k or above that price. currently Bitcoin is above 80k and seating at 90k plus which is still quite a good buying price to buy the dip and hold for long term. And as for those Investors, especially newbie investor's who can't afford to buy the dip they can go with the DCA method, and now is the right time for them to start accumulating bitcoin aggressively, because Bitcoin look a little bit cheap now that the price is still seating at 90k plus. and as for those who have not yet get started, now is perfect time to get started and start accumulating, now Bitcoin is below 100k, before it will get to new all time high.

[I_Anime]

Now what does that mean? Is 80-85k an opportunity to buy or not?

Only in the "heavily bearish" scenario a buy in the 80k region is really a loss in the mid-term. And even then, it may be enough to simply wait again 1-2 years until the price recovers, if the patterns of previous cycles repeat. And remind: you didn't buy at 125k but already 30-35% lower! So you very likely won't lose "everything" even if there is another deep 70%+ bear market.

This is where strategy of accumulating bitcoin comes in . Bitcoin is an asset of high volatility, that’s why most time i encourage DCA buying , than lumpsum buying.

Lumpsum buying is usually good when you are purchasing the deep (but still I prefer DCA ) . For instance Mr A have $10k and he want to invest in bitcoin, is two ways either to buy with the whole $10k once or to break it down , buying once is quite riskier than breaking it down in form of DCA .

So the user can choose to be investing 5% of $10k weekly than to go in once with the $10k due to
Market volatility, so in such scenario even if the market endup deeping further and one kept buying no matter what using DCA ( because is bitcoin is more trust worthy than other digital currency) . If such user continue and the price eventually bounce back stronger such user would be in a good profit. So yes $80-$85k is a good buying range even $90k though there’s still risk , even purchasing at $60k so the best is to stay positioned for future purposes .

[buwaytress]

Just dropping by as I do every now and then when I see fancy thinking behind DCA. Not discouraging it, but, if you're like me (most likely you are) in terms of limited time and understanding, then just remember that DCA is really about the simplicity. You don't need to figure out if the time or price is right, you don't need to wait around and outguess the market. DCA ensures you take advantage of every good opportunity, while consistently lowering the risk you took when buying at high prices.

It really, really, is that simple.

[As-Soon-As]

Just dropping by as I do every now and then when I see fancy thinking behind DCA. Not discouraging it, but, if you're like me (most likely you are) in terms of limited time and understanding, then just remember that DCA is really about the simplicity. You don't need to figure out if the time or price is right, you don't need to wait around and outguess the market. DCA ensures you take advantage of every good opportunity, while consistently lowering the risk you took when buying at high prices.

It really, really, is that simple.

Not only that, if you invest in Bitcoin according to the DCA method, you save on the purchase price every time you buy Bitcoin according to the DCA method. And if you invest in Bitcoin regularly on a weekly basis, you can buy deep, which is why buying Bitcoin according to the DCA method is the best strategy for investors. Using this strategy, it is easy to keep Bitcoin for a long time and you can also buy it every week according to your ability. The more you invest, the more risk will be reduced, as a result, that Bitcoin investor is also able to maintain Bitcoin investment for a long time more easily.

[Abelly]

My most significant reason for such a heavy crash is the still prevalent "cyclic" sentiment in the Bitcoin community. The fear that it will lose 75-80% again could lead to such a crash, or more precisely, to a "depression" or "crypto winter" with a low below 60k. And the scenario would already be "triggered" if we only "crashed" 55% (60k is about 47% of 126k, so any 53%+ crash / drawdown is already in this scenario.)

And a stock market crash could also "help" in this case to drive the price again to mid-2024 levels.

30% is not that high taking all these things into account. I would love for this risk to be lower, but I still believe it is significant.

I agree with you that the Bitcoin market is still very cyclical and the memory of the previous 75-80% decline is forcing many traders to sell early. The resulting recession or crypto winter is likely to see a drop below 60k But I Dont Think A 30% drop is Unusual, Especially if there is a correction in the stock market. in That case BTC could easily retest mid 2024 levels. It should also be Noted that this Cycle is not like the Previous ones.Strong ETF demand, LTH behavior, and relatively low miner pressure reduce the chances of a big 75-80% crash. A 30% correction is a real risk but it would be premature to call it an automatic full blown bear market or the start of a Long crypto winter. The situation currently looks like a high volatility Consolidation.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

Conclusion:

- 80k is in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.

Buying at 80k is definitely a much better option than buying at 110k as not everyone may be in this buying situation. For those who have already bought at a high price, the wisest move is to wait, as we believe the Bitcoin price will return to 110,000 after gaining the right momentum, thus avoiding losses for anyone who bought at that price. This method is indeed very effective when applied because with consistent implementation, our assets will grow significantly better. DCA is also a reliable strategy for averaging purchases, so it also maximizes purchases at much higher prices.

[d5000]

Strong ETF demand, LTH behavior, and relatively low miner pressure reduce the chances of a big 75-80% crash.

The miner pressure topic (which is of course one of the components of "risk") was actually one still not discussed in this thread, and so I have checked how the related stats look like. One of the indicators to indicate selling incentives for miners is the Puell Multiple, and indeed it looks quite low at this moment:


https://charts.bitbo.io/puell-multiple/

In simple words, the Puell Multiple tells how attractive the current sell price of the miner revenue is in comparison to the previous year. So it correlates a bit with price, and this means that in a dip it "naturally" will be a bit lower then when we see a price spike. However, it also tends to be low when the price was high in the previous year, which is the case now. It's thus "not" an insurance that miners won't sell, because they could be still panicking when they estimate an even lower price.

In general we can say that miner pressure should tend to be high when prices are high, but miners may misinterpret the situation and hodl in price spikes that look like they could develop further into bullish action (like in October).

But even extreme miner sell pressure would not lead into a crypto winter. Big miners have less than 200,000 coins, so they could trigger a dip but not a full blown bear market. Daily sell volume (200-900k BTC) is just too high for them to really make a "dent".

[Adams0001]

- 80k is in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.
 

I can agree with you that 80k is a good buying price for those Investors who want to buy the dip, than buying at 110k or above that price. currently Bitcoin is above 80k and seating at 90k plus which is still quite a good buying price to buy the dip and hold for long term. And as for those Investors, especially newbie investor's who can't afford to buy the dip they can go with the DCA method, and now is the right time for them to start accumulating bitcoin aggressively, because Bitcoin look a little bit cheap now that the price is still seating at 90k plus. and as for those who have not yet get started, now is perfect time to get started and start accumulating, now Bitcoin is below 100k, before it will get to new all time high.

This time is the best to buy Bitcoin because is cheap since is not in 100k anymore you can buy it now if you're capable of buying it before the next year, I didn't says if you buy now you will be profitable next year, but he can make you get profit profitable if the price increases because bitcoin is volatile and we can't predict the market the price increases or dip but the main issue is to just buy it without waiting for others opinions before starting investing in bitcoin. Because anyone will always give you different opinions they will tell you what they always did with there own, some can buy Bitcoin except the price decrease deeply before investing some the price will increase before investing thinking the price can probably continue raising and they will get profit easily.

[pawel7777]

(...)
- Bitcoin's volatility is continuously lowering. It is thus unlikely, if no extreme even (black swan) happens, that we will see another ~80% dip, and even a ~70% dip could be already out of reach. We're already down around 35%. So you have already a decent discount even if the bearish trend continues some months more.
(...)

That's a good point.
The major factor behind the previous ~80% dips was mostly caused by retail investors losing their patience and/or panic selling. This time the retail plays a significantly lesser role, with the price being influenced mostly by the demand of the spot ETFs (which could also contain a "retail" component to them, but that's a different story).
So the big question is what is the intention of those invested in spot ETFs. Are they looking to play the cycle and are yet to realise their profits when they decide it's a good time to sell, or are they strategically holding long-term as part of their diversified portfolios? I think it's probably a mixture of both, so I'm expecting to see a further drop, but I agree it will unlikely be anywhere near as severe as 80% (unless because of other factors, like forced liquidation of Microstrategy holdings or a serious threat from quantum computing etc).