The lower the price goes, the less risky to buy Bitcoins

[d5000]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

I believe in general yes, but all depends on your time horizon.

Until now, Bitcoin was always in a long term uptrend. This meant basically that every dip and bear market was an opportunity. While a bull market could be always a trap -- if you bought in at the top, waiting for even more returns, you could lose in the short term.

In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong. For many reasons this was a very risky point to buy. The price had been going up for almost 3 years, and historical bull markets were never longer than that.

But is it a good idea to buy now in the 80-90k area?

Let's see: Price can obviously go up and down or run sideways But what counts are the probabilities.

For the following reasons I think that a price about 80-85k could be a decent opportunity:

- Bitcoin's volatility is continuously lowering. It is thus unlikely, if no extreme even (black swan) happens, that we will see another ~80% dip, and even a ~70% dip could be already out of reach. We're already down around 35%. So you have already a decent discount even if the bearish trend continues some months more.
- A price about a third under the previous ATH in the worst case meant you had to wait 2 years to make a profit again. For example: if you bought in early 2022 for 45k (a third below 70k), this price was reached again in late 2023.
- It still could be an intermediate dip in a bull market. There were such dips in longer-term bull markets too which also lost ~30-40%. The worst one in recent years was the 65% dip in 2019 to early 2020, followed by the 50% in mid-2021, and several ~30% dips in 2024 and 2025.

How would I thus consider the probabilities for the evolution of the next year?

- 30% that we will have a heavily bearish next year. I would consider everything significantly (10% less) below the 2021 ATH (69k) as "heavily bearish". In short: a fall below 60k. This could happen for example if Strategy really runs into difficulties (unlikely in 2025/26,  but may become a fear for 2028+). Or if another big 2022 style hack occurs. Or if Tether falls.
- 25% lightly bearish scenarios, like a dip into the 60-75k territory and then a very slow recovery.
- 25% that the bull market will continue and until early 2026 we'll see 100k+ prices  again.
- 20% of a sideways scenario, either in the current region (around 75-90ish k) or a bit higher (e.g. around 100k). The argument for this scenario is that there may be neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative trends in adoption. And it would be basically a continuation of the lowering volatility pattern.

Now what does that mean? Is 80-85k an opportunity to buy or not?

Only in the "heavily bearish" scenario a buy in the 80k region is really a loss in the mid-term. And even then, it may be enough to simply wait again 1-2 years until the price recovers, if the patterns of previous cycles repeat. And remind: you didn't buy at 125k but already 30-35% lower! So you very likely won't lose "everything" even if there is another deep 70%+ bear market.

In all other scenarios, the biggest part of the crash risk is already gone. You may suffer some losses, but probably not more than 20%, and it's also quite likely that these losses will be temporary.

And in the bullish scenario you may have "won the lottery": you got perhaps the best price forever or for a very long time.

Conclusion:

- 80k is in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.

(Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and not investment advice. You may come to different conclusions doing analysis, and that's okay!)

PS: I'm especially interested in different approaches to the calculation of probabilities of bearish and bullish scenarios.

[Karl_3000]

10% of my income on DCA

10% on averaging.
Luckily I was able to buy at $85,000 but it remain just little for the buy at $80,000 but bitcoin did not get there.

10% accumulated into lump sum at $65000 but I do not know if bitcoin will get back there but let us see what will happen.

15 to 30% of my income is good for it.

My strategy
https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=5563148.msg65953177#msg65953177

There is no time you can not continue investing in bitcoin.

[Bushdark]

Some people are still not convinced to invest in Bitcoin now that the price is low and affordable for anyone that want to buy and hold.
It is becoming a normal thing for people to see opportunity to invest in Bitcoin at a low price but have to wait for the price of Bitcoin to continue going up before they can start buying. Buying Bitcoin below 80k is a big opportunity for investors to uphold the advantage of before the price of Bitcoin will continue to ho up. The DCA strategy remains the best way to accumulate Bitcoin without waiting for too long.

[philipma1957]

I buy dip
I HAVE A LADDER DOWN SET TO 67K

I dca 0.0095 btc a day via mining.

I picked other.

[Wapfika]

I always consider buying whenever the price dip using a fibonacci retracement to determine the possible support base on known high and low on the current price leg.

Fibo is a good tool to know a perfect DCA setup for the current cycle. Your point about buying on the top without knowing the ATH during a price really is the most risky thing to do no matter how bullish you are because of the uncertainty that it will move forward further while you have a lot of opportunity to wait and buy the dip like this.

[Jegileman]

For every price the market reaches less than $100K is a good price to buy since we’ve seen how far it has reached to record the current ATH. Even if the market shows a good time to buy, some investors are still adamant not to buy as they think the market will continue to go down more, everyone wants to buy at the least possible price, so the buying pressure could still be very low now.  

In scenario like this are when depicting the DCA strategy is the best. You don’t need to bother about buying at high price, your average buy timely will make you already being part of the investment and get to buy at an average buy between your highest and lower purchase of bitcoin.

[PostQuantumBTC]

I always consider buying whenever the price dip using a fibonacci retracement to determine the possible support base on known high and low on the current price leg.

Fibo is a good tool to know a perfect DCA setup for the current cycle. Your point about buying on the top without knowing the ATH during a price really is the most risky thing to do no matter how bullish you are because of the uncertainty that it will move forward further while you have a lot of opportunity to wait and buy the dip like this.

Fibonacci retracement is a good trading indicator but what if it fails you? I think Fibonacci retracement is commonly used by traders than holders. If a holder can use with good investment plan, it will be profitable with coins like bitcoin, but if used for trading, any indicator can fail.

[BitMaxz]

Well, I agree with this actually; my prediction, or my estimate, is that the dip price of BTC will bounce on the previous ATH on the last cycle, which is around $68k, or at least near that zone.
This is the same as the previous cycle, where the price nearly hit $20k as a new ATH in the year 2017, and then in 2021, it hit a new ATH around $68k, and it dropped around $17k before it bounced again.

So this cycle might be similar; it would drop near the previous ATH. I know a lot of things change in the crypto space, but having a DCA would be a good option to accumulate on every price dip because no one knows if this is the last bearish drop.
We are not fortune tellers to exactly predict the dip price, but there's a strategy that could spot the dip, like the DCA method.
Doing it at the current price isn't a bad idea, and I'm confident, like you said, the lower the price drop, the less risky it is to buy. I agree. While the price is approaching the previous ATH around $68k or $70k, that's my ideal price, but still we shouldn't expect much if the price were to go this far. So around $80k should be the good price to buy, but also be aware there is still the possibility it would go further below that price.

[Wapfika]

I always consider buying whenever the price dip using a fibonacci retracement to determine the possible support base on known high and low on the current price leg.

Fibo is a good tool to know a perfect DCA setup for the current cycle. Your point about buying on the top without knowing the ATH during a price really is the most risky thing to do no matter how bullish you are because of the uncertainty that it will move forward further while you have a lot of opportunity to wait and buy the dip like this.

Fibonacci retracement is a good trading indicator but what if it fails you? I think Fibonacci retracement is commonly used by traders than holders. If a holder can use with good investment plan, it will be profitable with coins like bitcoin, but if used for trading, any indicator can fail.

It’s just a guide for the price level where you can possibly purchase through the range set.

If the price broke the range then I will just adjust the range to more accurate price level and continue DCA. It’s a DCA setup not any position that requires short term price action.

What important is you are buying on tne price that potentially a price support.

[Padi24]

I think everyone need to speak for themselves, for me I have be ongoingly buying Bitcoin even before this time, and I must also say that this is the opportunity that I have been waiting for long ago but while waiting for this opportunity i was very consistent in doing the DCA I never relent because if I had waited for this opportunity to come before making my Bitcoin purchase i would have wasted a whole lot of months without achieving anything.

Thank goodness these past few months I spent in waiting for dip to come didn't go in vain, it was actually a smart move I must say. I would love those that are waiting to buy the dip to follow this method of buying little by little using the DCA method so as to avoid wasting a whole lot of months or year in waiting for dip to happen.

[d5000]

I always consider buying whenever the price dip using a fibonacci retracement to determine the possible support base on known high and low on the current price leg.

Yep, that's a quite popular strategy to find entry points based on established chart patterns. Fibo, double bottoms, previous highs and so on.

The drawback is though that I think these price points has become a common target for those who want to trigger long liquidations. For example, if a lot of people with leveraged positions buy at a certain Fibo retracement, there may be big whales shorting exactly at that point, and if they're lucky, they can trigger a deeper dip due to the liquidations.

For that reason I observed in the past few years also double bottoms and previous highs weren't the perfect entry points.

Myself thus I now don't look that much at these "possibly perfect" entry points anymore, but instead on the percentages the price has already lost, and scenarios on what could happen in the future. For example, the so called "4 year cycle" is not a scientific theory, it's a still quite weak assumption based on the chart pattern of only 8 years with one clear repetition (2013-21). So it's one of many possible scenarios. And then I try to quantify the probability of each scenario based on my own assumptions (like the decreased volatility I mentioned).

[Mrbluntzy]

In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong.

Will you still have this same view or opinion if Bitcoin price was currently selling for $200k today?
If that has been the price today, will you say people that bought at $125k were lucky to take the opportunity or not? (Just asking to know what your thought would be if it had happened like that). It's true that the market has been on a bull trend for the long time and the dip was actually expected but history could change, it could have been unexpectedly possible that Bitcoin could have just reached that $200k and at that time people that bought at $125k would be happy while the people that didn't buy will regret why they did not.

In times where you don't want to take so much risk to buy at the top, there is need to apply DCA method and buy from the top to the bottom, the advantage of using the method is that in which ever way the market turns out, you won't regret it because you bought at different price and you will still keep buying if you have a consistent income and also a plan to have more Bitcoin.

Luckily for those that did not buy at $125k, the price goes down to $85k and they acquired more than the amount they would have had if they bought at $125k but if the price had swing to $200k or $250k, they will regret why they didn't buy, While those people that must have bought at the $125k  price are currently in unrealized loss which doesn't matter since they are not selling any time soon and they even have plans to continue buying.

In all other scenarios, the biggest part of the crash risk is already gone. You may suffer some losses, but probably not more than 20%, and it's also quite likely that these losses will be temporary.

Change is constant,  from all the scenarios it could seem that the biggest crash risk is gone but when something different surfaces, it changes the story line. When investing on Bitcoin for the future (long term), we should think of a loss as an "unrealized loss" Since we aren't going to sell our coins until the profit we expect are reached. There's nothing certain that the market might not dip below $60k but that is just an unrealized loss because to loss is when you completely lose something that you can not recover again but as long as the risk is just to be in an unrealized losses since you didn't sell, then the waiting will still be worth it when the price bounce back aggressively in a new bull cycle.

Bitcoin is a great asset, if you are investing for the future where you don't have to sell until you start making profit, the unrealized losses you will be seeing should not bother you but instead be on a DCA mood to buy more and fill your bag.

[Bitcoin.com97]

For beginner this is an opportunity to purchase , seeing this dip now with the little you have one can be able to purchase, take advantage of the dip now because when it goes higher not everyone can be able to achieve that desire goal , change can happen at any time , I will encourage everyone to buy now that their dips, then  in future when the price of Bitcoin goes up you will be proud of your decision, now the price is lower that is how less the risk will be , make better use of the opportunity now .

[Out of mind]

I think buying from the dip is the best, Bitcoin price is currently above $86k. If DCA can be done by determining the current market price, it will not be risky, right now may be a good time to buy. I will be ready to buy if the market goes down, I will be ready to buy at the lowest dip. However, looking at the market right now, it seems that it has a slight chance of increasing, I plan to buy when the market is between $75k and $70k.
However, if DCA is done at this time, there will be a mixed opportunity if the market goes up, there will be a possibility of profit. Since I plan to buy from the dip, I am not ready to use DCA at this time, but if invest in the DCA method, it will definitely be risk-free.

[adaseb]

This is somewhat true and also somewhat untrue.

I know what you mean. The cheaper it gets, it means the less it can fall in the future and its less risk buying it. I mean, price can't go lower than $0 and so the closer that you buy some asset to $0 the less risk you have. However this isn't necessarily true.

When someone is cheap, there is usually a reason. Thats why if you see some cheap stock and you think its a good deal, what usually happens, it keeps falling further and further. And the same is true for Bitcoin, the more it falls the more it can keep falling.

Historically you are better off buying when a new ATH hit rather than a new yearly low.

[Free Market Capitalist]

Unless you believe that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme that will go to zero, like Peter Schiff and other enlightened individuals, any time is a good time to buy. The longer your time horizon for HODLing, the less it matters when you buy, although obviously dips would be better opportunities. The only problem would be if you don't have a long enough time horizon, because when there is a dip, you won't know if it will continue to fall, no matter how much analysis you do.

[Emeraldo]

Fibonacci retracement is a good trading indicator but what if it fails you? I think Fibonacci retracement is commonly used by traders than holders. If a holder can use with good investment plan, it will be profitable with coins like bitcoin, but if used for trading, any indicator can fail.

Any need for a trader to be using Fibonacci Retracement? There is no need to use it since most indicators can lag without showing you a real market reaction until it happens before adjusting. Fibonacci Retracement will show you possible support on the chart but not guaranteed. Using it is cool to check possible down and upward limit of the price of Bitcoin but I don't think that is good for an investor. The Dollar Cost Average(DCA) is far more better to be used by investors while timing the market.

Op has really explained multiple instances in the market where investors need to take opportunity to buy and hold.
Buying Bitcoin at 80k to 90k is better than waiting for price to fall below 80k price range. What if price could kit go below 80k? This is a good question to ask because we don't know if the price of Bitcoin will continue from 80k upward or test another support.

Yep, that's a quite popular strategy to find entry points based on established chart patterns. Fibo, double bottoms, previous highs and so on.

The Fibonacci is a popular indicator that has been in existence for several years and it's being used by 80% of traders for trade inputs and confirmations. Using the Fibonacci alone can be a disaster and that is why traders often use it with other indicators and price action to be make it highly reactive to price support and resistance.

The drawback is though that I think these price points has become a common target for those who want to trigger long liquidations. For example, if a lot of people with leveraged positions buy at a certain Fibo retracement, there may be big whales shorting exactly at that point, and if they're lucky, they can trigger a deeper dip due to the liquidations.

Since large players started entering the market, predicting the price of Bitcoin effectively has been a serious problem. These whales have all the whole tools available with them and they know the mindset of smaller traders since their trades is mostly short term less smaller capitals. They can short exactly where you hope to take profit after the had taking their profits from the market. Traders face most of these challenges when trading and that is why I've stick to investing only mode.

Myself thus I now don't look that much at these "possibly perfect" entry points anymore, but instead on the percentages the price has already lost, and scenarios on what could happen in the future. For example, the so called "4 year cycle" is not a scientific theory, it's a still quite weak assumption based on the chart pattern of only 8 years with one clear repetition (2013-21). So it's one of many possible scenarios. And then I try to quantify the probability of each scenario based on my own assumptions (like the decreased volatility I mentioned).

Thank you for drawing our thoughts to this, everything about the market is gradually changing and the 4 year cycle might not be as strong as we think it will be this season. More whales are entering the market making it harder for most of the past cycles to be effectively significant. Whatever happens, investors using DCA to capture buying points have more significant opportunity to leverage the dip.

[PostQuantumBTC]

Fibonacci retracement is a good trading indicator but what if it fails you? I think Fibonacci retracement is commonly used by traders than holders. If a holder can use with good investment plan, it will be profitable with coins like bitcoin, but if used for trading, any indicator can fail.

Any need for a trader to be using Fibonacci Retracement? There is no need to use it since most indicators can lag without showing you a real market reaction until it happens before adjusting. Fibonacci Retracement will show you possible support on the chart but not guaranteed. Using it is cool to check possible down and upward limit of the price of Bitcoin but I don't think that is good for an investor. The Dollar Cost Average(DCA) is far more better to be used by investors while timing the market.

This is what I am saying, that indicators can fail but you do not need to use all your money to buy bitcoin at once, that is the reason I said if it is done with good investment plan, that profit can be made. The profit is mostly about bitcoin price that will fall and rise again.

[Jostern]

The lower the price goes, the less risky it is to buy Bitcoins. Is this phrase true?

I believe in general yes, but all depends on your time horizon.

Until now, Bitcoin was always in a long term uptrend. This meant basically that every dip and bear market was an opportunity. While a bull market could be always a trap -- if you bought in at the top, waiting for even more returns, you could lose in the short term.

In general I think those who refused to buy at $125k were not wrong. For many reasons this was a very risky point to buy. The price had been going up for almost 3 years, and historical bull markets were never longer than that.

But is it a good idea to buy now in the 80-90k area?

Let's see: Price can obviously go up and down or run sideways But what counts are the probabilities.

For the following reasons I think that a price about 80-85k could be a decent opportunity:

- Bitcoin's volatility is continuously lowering. It is thus unlikely, if no extreme even (black swan) happens, that we will see another ~80% dip, and even a ~70% dip could be already out of reach. We're already down around 35%. So you have already a decent discount even if the bearish trend continues some months more.
- A price about a third under the previous ATH in the worst case meant you had to wait 2 years to make a profit again. For example: if you bought in early 2022 for 45k (a third below 70k), this price was reached again in late 2023.
- There were intermediate dips in longer-term bull markets too which also lost ~30-40%. The worst one in recent years was the 65% dip in 2019 to early 2020, followed by the 50% in mid-2021, and several ~30% dips in 2024 and 2025.

How would I thus consider the probabilities for the evolution of the next year?

- 30% that we will have a heavily bearish next year. I would consider everything significantly (10% less) below the 2021 ATH (69k) as "heavily bearish". In short: a fall below 60k. This could happen for example if Strategy really runs into difficulties (unlikely in 2025/26,  but may become a fear for 2028+). Or if another big 2022 style hack occurs. Or if Tether falls.
- 25% lightly bearish scenarios, like a dip into the 60-75k territory and then a very slow recovery.
- 25% that the bull market will continue and until early 2026 we'll see 100k+ prices  again.
- 20% of a sideways scenario, either in the current region (around 75-90ish k) or a bit higher (e.g. around 100k). The argument for this scenario is that there may be neither overwhelmingly positive nor negative trends in adoption. And it would be basically a continuation of the lowering volatility pattern.

Now what does that mean? Is 80-85k an opportunity to buy or not?

Only in the "heavily bearish" scenario a buy in the 80k region is really a loss in the mid-term. And even then, it may be enough to simply wait again 1-2 years until the price recovers, if the patterns of previous cycles repeat. And remind: you didn't buy at 125k but already 30-35% lower! So you very likely won't lose "everything" even if there is another deep 70%+ bear market.

In all other scenarios, the biggest part of the crash risk is already gone. You may suffer some losses, but probably not more than 20%, and it's also quite likely that these losses will be temporary.

And in the bullish scenario you may have "won the lottery": you got perhaps the best price forever or for a very long time.

Conclusion:

- 80k is in my opinion a quite decent buying price. It is not free of risks. But much less risky than buying at >110k was.
- If you don't want to gamble that much, DCA is always a good option too. And if you didn't DCA in the "bubble phase" over 100k, perhaps now is a good moment to begin.

(Disclaimer: This is a personal opinion and not investment advice. You may come to different conclusions doing analysis, and that's okay!)

PS: I'm especially interested in different approaches to the calculation of probabilities of bearish and bullish scenarios.

You could actually be making a lot of sense, buying bitcoin when the price is low is sustainable in the sense that so many people can buy bitcoin and hold for a very long term, buying bitcoin when the price is 80k and buying when the price is 120k, I must say that buying when the price is in bear season is quite affordable and have less risk, but I have that trust in Bitcoin to always be very profitable because when the price of bitcoin goes down it will always recover, but I believe that so many investors who have been investing in bitcoin will definitely find it very bad when the price of bitcoin keeps going down, they will like a situation they have to buy bitcoin in an affordable price and then wait for the price to actually increase as time goes on, there are always different possibilities in buying and accumulating bitcoin which is to have a very affordable price to buy bitcoin and still continue to make bitcoin sustainable for them, buying the dip isn’t a bad situation.

[Zaguru12]

However, if DCA is done at this time, there will be a mixed opportunity if the market goes up, there will be a possibility of profit. Since I plan to buy from the dip, I am not ready to use DCA at this time, but if invest in the DCA method, it will definitely be risk-free.

Personally I will say if there is even a time to actually try out DCA then it is right now when the market is definitely in a mix trend. Everyone has its strategy and the best of strategy still remains sticking to your own convictions. So I won’t say mine is actually the best of strategy but for me with how the market has been lately behaving I think we might be consolidating for a long period of time before we head up or down ( there is no clear indication of direction for now). As such for me I think you can DCA right now to actually balance it up regardless of the direction, if you are truly interested on dips why not actually go for 50% allocated for DCA while the remaining for dip buying when it actually triggers your target.

Reason why I think most people need to actually use DCA is simply because of the market is currently the
Most unpredictable it has ever been, having bearish sentiment this early in a bull run year isn’t a thing so the question arises that what next happens from here? Would we see more dips like the historical bearish periods or go up from here? I think as someone looking to accumulate more bitcoin DCA is the best option for me.