[XMR] Monero Speculation

[NeuroticFish]

eh..XMR has a much greater market cap and volume than DASH now...the trading range of 0.018 - .02 is basically four times the price a month ago.

There's going to be a correction if BTC spikes but hey.

I agree on the market cap, but you know, I care more about the value of the amount I have
And yes, it's still 6x bigger than the price when I've first seen XMR and about 24x bigger than the minimum price I've seen.
I'm not complaining

[nanobrain]

eh..XMR has a much greater market cap and volume than DASH now...the trading range of 0.018 - .02 is basically four times the price a month ago.

There's going to be a correction if BTC spikes but hey.

I agree on the market cap, but you know, I care more about the value of the amount I have
And yes, it's still 6x bigger than the price when I've first seen XMR and about 24x bigger than the minimum price I've seen.
I'm not complaining

No worries ..I was just a bit confused since until a few weeks back I'd thought Dash had lead XMR in terms of most metrics. 

[elrippo]

We touched the 0,0180xxx's for a few times now. If this trend lasts, we will probably see the 0,017xxx's at the next dump 

[Billy Bunter]

Apologies if this has already been discussed previously.

For the last three weekends we've seen a spike in price. Anyone have any theories as to why this happens at the weekend? To say that it's caused by an influx of weekend warriors seems to simply beg the question.

[cAPSLOCK]

Bears tamp down irrational exuberance with TA, while bulls just keep building on fundamentals.

I agree that right now the wild card is the fundamentals here.  In fact it has been from the beginning.  In fact it's more than a wild card.  It's a trump card.  But those very fundamentals have brought us enough volume to actually be able to see some classic market patterns forming.  And ignoring at least basic TA could be quite costly.

Of course the ideal of buy and hold trumps all TA in the end.  It is what I am doing with my core holding.  I have X amount that I will not drop under.  Not for a long time at least.

And I am not generally a "trader".  But I see some fairly plain opportunities.  And at the moment I am still waiting for a little more drop to get my "play money" back in.  It ends up win/win/win for me because:

1.  Monero just keeps going up.  I win.
2.  Monero goes down to below .0176.  At this point I get back in with the play money and cross fingers.  I have more Monero again! I win.
3.  Monero suffers some sort of disaster with it's "DAO" oh wait.. we don't have one of those things.  Or Masternodes get compromised... oh wait... wrong again.  Well I guess Poloniex could Gox us.  That's about it.  But then I go ALL in with my play money and thank the stars because that will make Monero as cheap as it ever can be.

I remember when bitcoin  was ~$2-3 for a very very long time.  I didn;t buy a single one.  I won a shit ton of them playing poker, but bought none.

I'm done making that mistake.  It's amazing we are getting to do this again.

[Dafar]

Holding because you don't want to play with fire is one thing.... but you do not want to be bag holding alt coins when BTC rallys


I'm gonna give this weekend a chance, if XMR dips further it's probably the end of the bull trend for now

[nanobrain]

Bears tamp down irrational exuberance with TA, while bulls just keep building on fundamentals.

I agree that right now the wild card is the fundamentals here.  In fact it has been from the beginning.  In fact it's more than a wild card.  It's a trump card.  But those very fundamentals have brought us enough volume to actually be able to see some classic market patterns forming.  And ignoring at least basic TA could be quite costly.

Of course the ideal of buy and hold trumps all TA in the end.  It is what I am doing with my core holding.  I have X amount that I will not drop under.  Not for a long time at least.

And I am not generally a "trader".  But I see some fairly plain opportunities.  And at the moment I am still waiting for a little more drop to get my "play money" back in.  It ends up win/win/win for me because:

1.  Monero just keeps going up.  I win.
2.  Monero goes down to below .0176.  At this point I get back in with the play money and cross fingers.  I have more Monero again! I win.
3.  Monero suffers some sort of disaster with it's "DAO" oh wait.. we don't have one of those things.  Or Masternodes get compromised... oh wait... wrong again.  Well I guess Poloniex could Gox us.  That's about it.  But then I go ALL in with my play money and thank the stars because that will make Monero as cheap as it ever can be.

I remember when bitcoin  was ~$2-3 for a very very long time.  I didn;t buy a single one.  I won a shit ton of them playing poker, but bought none.

I'm done making that mistake.  It's amazing we are getting to do this again.

Great post and reflects my thinking and strategy too - I even have a very similar 'why oh why' story with regard to knowlng about BTC but not taking advantage back in the day.  I guess it true that we all have opportunities at some point, the skill is seeing them.

[nanobrain]

Apologies if this has already been discussed previously.

For the last three weekends we've seen a spike in price. Anyone have any theories as to why this happens at the weekend? To say that it's caused by an influx of weekend warriors seems to simply beg the question.

I think its true there are indeed weekend warriors esp with the alts, in the US I suspect college kids who spend their time trading and using profits to buy drugs for the following weekends trading.  The troll boxes are often full of folks trading and regaling stories of their current substance intake.  And now that we have DN adoption I suspect non traders are buying xmr at the weekend for purchases the following week too.

When BTC was being led by China the weekends would be quieter with upturns in volume on the Monday.

Its a difficult one to get a handle on; as soon as you think a pattern is emerging something will happen to turn it on its head.

[Billy Bunter]

Apologies if this has already been discussed previously.

For the last three weekends we've seen a spike in price. Anyone have any theories as to why this happens at the weekend? To say that it's caused by an influx of weekend warriors seems to simply beg the question.

I think its true there are indeed weekend warriors esp with the alts, in the US I suspect college kids who spend their time trading and using profits to buy drugs for the following weekends trading.  The troll boxes are often full of folks trading and regaling stories of their current substance intake.  And now that we have DN adoption I suspect non traders are buying xmr at the weekend for purchases the following week too.

When BTC was being led by China the weekends would be quieter with upturns in volume on the Monday.

Its a difficult one to get a handle on; as soon as you think a pattern is emerging something will happen to turn it on its head.

Thank you.

Do we have any indications yet that the Chinese are buying heavily into Monero? I've read that the main catalysts for Bitcoin at the time were DNM's and the Chinese. We have a good chance at getting the DNM's. Are we there yet with the Chinese? Do you know if we need to be offered on the Chinese exchanges for that to happen?

[alphahacktivist]

Holding because you don't want to play with fire is one thing.... but you do not want to be bag holding alt coins when BTC rallys


I'm gonna give this weekend a chance, if XMR dips further it's probably the end of the bull trend for now

agreed . waiting for the weekend to decide

[RayX12]

Holding because you don't want to play with fire is one thing.... but you do not want to be bag holding alt coins when BTC rallys


I'm gonna give this weekend a chance, if XMR dips further it's probably the end of the bull trend for now

That is what the whales want you think..  Panic, this is the end, sell sell sell.... That is what I read on the trollbox every time that there is some pressure.

Of course lately the excuse is BTC going up.. Look BTC up... Panic Sell Sell

I laugh at the fools and buy more..

[nanobrain]

Apologies if this has already been discussed previously.

For the last three weekends we've seen a spike in price. Anyone have any theories as to why this happens at the weekend? To say that it's caused by an influx of weekend warriors seems to simply beg the question.

I think its true there are indeed weekend warriors esp with the alts, in the US I suspect college kids who spend their time trading and using profits to buy drugs for the following weekends trading.  The troll boxes are often full of folks trading and regaling stories of their current substance intake.  And now that we have DN adoption I suspect non traders are buying xmr at the weekend for purchases the following week too.

When BTC was being led by China the weekends would be quieter with upturns in volume on the Monday.

Its a difficult one to get a handle on; as soon as you think a pattern is emerging something will happen to turn it on its head.

Thank you.

Do we have any indications yet that the Chinese are buying heavily into Monero? I've read that the main catalysts for Bitcoin at the time were DNM's and the Chinese. We have a good chance at getting the DNM's. Are we there yet with the Chinese? Do you know if we need to be offered on the Chinese exchanges for that to happen?

In order:
Not as far as I know - the list of things I know I don't know is extremely long, the things I don't know I don't know infinite.

DN markets (SR and BMR) came first, China came a couple of years later.

See above.

Given the general wariness that exists around Chinese exchanges and the veracity of their volume I imagine getting XMR listed on OKCoin or Huobi would be a double edged sword.

But I think we've got this far without too much Chinese involvement, so its another potential capital influx. And I would suggest as a nation there are a lot of people there concerned about issues of privacy and interested in the features xmr has to offer.

[Febo]

Holding because you don't want to play with fire is one thing.... but you do not want to be bag holding alt coins when BTC rallys


I'm gonna give this weekend a chance, if XMR dips further it's probably the end of the bull trend for now

Soon after BTC will rally, Monero will follow even more.

Yes if you wold have BTC at rally time and at highest peak dump them for Monero would be perfect.


But if you hold Monero from today on and just wait till after the BTC rally for a Monero rally, you dont lose anything.

[Dafar]

Holding because you don't want to play with fire is one thing.... but you do not want to be bag holding alt coins when BTC rallys


I'm gonna give this weekend a chance, if XMR dips further it's probably the end of the bull trend for now

That is what the whales want you think..  Panic, this is the end, sell sell sell.... That is what I read on the trollbox every time that there is some pressure.

Of course lately the excuse is BTC going up.. Look BTC up... Panic Sell Sell

I laugh at the fools and buy more..

I think you're confusing your own goals with other people's goals for trading XMR. No one is saying "this is the end" as if XMR is going to die. If you just want to sit on your stash and wait until this coin appreciates in value that's your goal. But some people like to increase their purchasing power by getting out when the signs are clear and getting back in with even more XMR when it's time to get back in. I would say the latter is smarter than you. BTC going up is no excuse... it clearly is going up, and alt coins typically do suffer when BTC goes up.

[nanobrain]

Its pretty clear that there is some big money in the market now and their aim is fairly clear -- accumulate all the moneroj.

The cryptoverse is littered with the empty wallets of minnows who think they can feed in the wake of the whales; the wise old fish buy early, hold and get fat.

As CapsLock posted above, the fundamentals are all there, why trade yourself into trouble.

[obit33]

why trade yourself into trouble

THIS!

you have to be a damn good trader to profitably trade crypto's... And I doubt you can really pull it off without a large enough bag of money to influence the markets...

I know I can't for sure... To the brave souls that give it a try, I wish you good luck!

Morituri te salutant! 

best regards

[aminorex]

XMR is going to be suppressed for the masses and embraced by the party princes in China.  I doubt we will ever see a Huobi-style pump from PRC punters, but the big money...that is going to creep up on you and slingshot you to the moon when you least expect it.  Day-traders will be rekt and hodlers will meet their apotheosis in a sudden moment.

I am guessing the 1bn mcap mark might trigger the first trickle of serious off-shoring money flows from China.  Until then it's just too market-moving.  Try to buy a million monero some time.  Ha!  Litecoin established a precedent of Chinese interest in #2, so passing ETH mcap is another possible trigger point.

Negative elasticity indeed.

[Billy Bunter]

Not as far as I know - the list of things I know I don't know is extremely long, the things I don't know I don't know infinite.

You and me both.

Thanks for the input - I always enjoy reading your posts.

[TrueCryptonaire]

XMR is going to be suppressed for the masses and embraced by the party princes in China.  I doubt we will ever see a Huobi-style pump from PRC punters, but the big money...that is going to creep up on you and slingshot you to the moon when you least expect it.  Day-traders will be rekt and hodlers will meet their apotheosis in a sudden moment.

I am guessing the 1bn mcap mark might trigger the first trickle of serious off-shoring money flows from China.  Until then it's just too market-moving.  Try to buy a million monero some time.  Ha!  Litecoin established a precedent of Chinese interest in #2, so passing ETH mcap is another possible trigger point.

Negative elasticity indeed.

I like your post. It is not bearish at all since you did not say you are bullish on Monero. Just told some facts mixed with some speculation.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bear in mind chances are the rise of Monero might have been the trigger of  growth in btc marketcap. If I am not mistaken Monero represents quite large portion of the trading of btc in coinmarketcap. There might be people with fiat looking for entrance to XMR. I actually consider this relatively probable due to the dnm acceptance of xmr. Monero is incredible tool saving money anonymously outside of the convenient banking system.  Therefore I am giving some odds for bitcoin rain to the marketcap of xmr.