[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Skilled workers my ass, the immigrants you're getting are riff-raff their home countries are happy to get rid of.  The whole thing is transparently engineered to break down national borders and social bonds to pave the way for global Managerialism under the most corrupt and venal bunch of assholes who ever hoisted a cocktail weiner. The extreme right wing people are responding rationally, if predictably, and if you're so mercenary that you can't see any value beyond the economic I feel sorry for you.  That said, I not really with the nationalist right because I think technology makes globalism in some form inevitable in any case.  I'm here because I hope that crypto can change the dynamic from a top down Mandarin model to a bottom up model that empowers regular people to organize their affairs as they see fit. In other words: Gas the Davos cunts; Anarcho-Localism now!

Wow. Just wow. Someones got a damn decent head on their shoulders. Also take a look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panarchism

[nanobrain]

Soooo, anyway.

(hoping to change the topic before things get overheated)

Is anyone else getting bored with this endless channel trading?  Its almost as dull as BTC.

And have you noticed how since the BigLegUp^TM, the number of bots on Polo seems to have increased tenfold (completeWAG btw); sometimes the order book is simply a blur of rubbish, lowball bids.  Does anyone here trade with a bot?

[nanobrain]

Ahhh...thank you whoever just added some volume...perhaps we'll get some French weekend action

[needmoney90]

Probably bullish delusions

[cryptimus prime]

I am not sure if XMR is fully bullish now, but for sure there is no reason to be bearish with all the recent attention XMR got and which will attract more investors, contributors and perhaps exchanges too.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am not sure if XMR is fully bullish now, but for sure there is no reason to be bearish with all the recent attention XMR got and which will attract more investors, contributors and perhaps exchanges too.

Nobody knows about crypto. Something drastic might happen overnight.
If the trendline shows high probability of bull market, the traders and speculants will open heavy long positions and build longs upon longs which creates sudden surge in the price.

On the other hand, the traders might want to short Monero and build short positions upon short positions (weak hands are probably shaken already) which will push the price down. However, there is not that much room to go down from here unless the project fails completely and the price goes back to sub 1 usd. The upside is infinity because a lot of coins are stored in cold storages.
The faster the rise, the less there will be coins for sale because the bagholders do not need to sell that many coins to satisfy their desire to acquire castles from Estonia.  
Therefore I am speculating the next bubble will be in Estonian castles, ruins and manors.

[Quicken]

Wirex integrating shapeshift:

https://news.bitcoin.com/mastercard-wirex-altcoins-payments/

https://cointelegraph.com/news/wirex-debit-card-integrates-shapeshift-eth-monero-litecoin-enabled

Cheers, Q

[nanobrain]

@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.

The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.

[nioc]

Maybe you are a clam.

I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?

I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association.  clam>shellfish>selfish

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain.  Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts.  Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.

Don't rely on bad, do good.

[explorer]

@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.

The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.

Ever the party pooper 

[aminorex]

It may be boring, but the bouncing is nice for my favored style. And we're chewing up all the loosely held coins during this base-building, so it is a bullish mode.

Highers/lowers is how you can easily and unequivocally recognize that momentum is forming.  Momentum always fails eventually.  

TA is the intersection of three factor categories: Aggregate agent statistics, pattern recognition (aka feature engineering), and structural constraints.  Structural constraints may be categorized as a priori, deterministic, and stochastic.  Market structure factors cross-cut these categories.

But TA is not a value-neutral, purely observational discipline, it is goal-oriented, so optimal control theory plays a role in determining the analytic style, and one of the most useful decision-theoretical frameworks is the partially-ordered Markov decision process, POMDP.

The easiest way to make a nearly optimal bot is to parameterize a POMDP.  The state-of-the-art outcomes, however derive from use of structured variational autoencoders for feature engineering in a deep LSTM network, because these open up a much larger dynamical model space, and can extract much more subtle signals.

I keep meaning to make a bot, but the day job, and my manual trading, and my family life have conspired against it.  Also: loss aversion.

[CryptoSporidium]

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).

So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the Moon^TM.

[N-rG]

Interesting, buy and sell walls disappeared.

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic

U assumend correct.

[aminorex]

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

That is interesting.  It doesn't eliminate the risks inherent in zcash, but it does eliminate most of the smell, so it could see some up-take.  The implied risk to XMR price (not to the utility, project, security, community or economy) is that capital will be attracted from XMR to community-zcash, which I will call snarkero, or XZK.

Here's how I see it:  We know what value XMR had before DNM adoption was mooted, and it was about mcap $10mm.  In the current initial stage of adoption, the value is about 10x.  Thus, without adoption, the leading crypto in the fungible monetary domain is only worth a small fraction of the value of XMR today, and can only draw a small fraction of the capital away from XMR.  The implied price risk amounts to about $1 per XMR, in the long run, as XZK gets the level of adoption seen by XMR before June (when AB insiders started accumulating in earnest).

On the other hand, there may be synergies which increase the value of both coins.  Mcap may be mostly linear  zero-sum, but building a monetary economy certainly is not.  XZK may attract new money into anonymity, which, seeing the living economy and leading liquidity of XMR, then diversifies into XMR.  In fact, I tend to think that until and unless XZK is adopted at similar scale, its introduction is likely to help XMR to grow.

The credibility of the team would largely determine the success or failure of XZK.  Barring crypto vulnerabilities emerging in the moon math, if the fundamental trust issues could be managed to the satisfaction of the market, I could definitely see DNMs adding snarkero, once it reached a certainly liquidity.  If so, they should be early buyers, attempting to front-run the possibility.  If they use BTC they can be traced, and subjected to extortion.  Therefore, they will need to use XMR to buy their XZK.  Bullish.

Indeed I think the ideal outcome might be a zksnark branch in the XMR network.  If the two were made transparently interoperable, it would provide immediate boostrap liquidity to the XZK, and mean XZK was already DNM-accepted.

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic

U assumend correct.

Yes, XMR is the ultimate in anti-fragile (pace Taleb).  Chaos and pain only makes counterparty-free and seizure-immune more attractive.  Truly Nietzschean, Monero is.

[N-rG]

Zcash has caused a lot of controversy for its method of distributing the crypto currency. The organisation is not set up as an opensource community but as a Company. This is the first major difference to Bitcoin

With Zcash they have taken a different approach and have taken money from investors in the company to create the crypto currency before releasing it. But here comes the catch - for every unit of Z currency you mine during the first 4%, the Company that runs Zcash gets 20%, which will amount to 10% of the total supply. To some people this has been causing concern and ire as they feel that the investors are using the network to unfairly enrich themselves by the power that they control. The backers include Pantera Capital and various Bitcoin celebrities such as Roger Ver and Barry Seibert.

Zcash is for ordinary people who wants to get cheated of their money.

Lets make a coin, put some $ in marketing, say it can the coolest things of every other coin and be one of the main sellers and take some % of every mining. Sounds awesome 

[nanobrain]

Maybe you are a clam.

I'm assuming you are not referring to the shellfish....could you explain the meaning and usage of the term 'clam'?

I was being purposely obtuse and used a simple/silly 2 step association.  clam>shellfish>selfish

When N-rG stated "I see a solid future." after listing a few world wide problems that could cause chaos and pain, I assumed he was not being sarcastic and was looking forward to personal gain steaming from chaos and pain.  Big assumptions to be sure and based in part on his prior posts.  Maybe some see chaos and pain as inevitable but I would rather see crypto adoption and personal gain without it.

Don't rely on bad, do good.

Thanks for the explanation.  I'm not sure I can cope if we start using once removed word associations to parlez; lots of forum folk already struggle with basic semantics.

But I do appreciate your sentiments ie it would be lovely if we could have a more equitable world without pain,misery and chaos as a catalyst and that crypto could act as the means to redistribute wealth more evenly.

Sadly, where the monkeys tread pain, misery and chaos inevitably follow.

@Quicken,
Nice, thanks.

The moonchild will be here soon speaking of higher highers, higher lows and an impending weekend of fun, inevitably followed by bouncing between 180 and 166.

Ever the party pooper 

   

Someone needs a new truck 

[KeyJockey]

Is anyone else getting bored with this endless channel trading?  Its almost as dull as BTC.

AAAAAAA, careful!

Every time someone complains about volatility being "flat"... it seems like that causes a big price crash, LOL 

Let's just be happy for the moment that the recent nice big re-valuation gains appear to be STICKING, amirite?

Next leg up will come in due course, I believe... more time to consolidate, more time to accumulate cheap coinz LOL

[smoothie]

Is the biggest risk to xmr a community launched zcash clone without the premine and founder tax, like how xmr began?

If I am honest, not many here are interested into Zcash so I do not see it even competing with XMR. Bear in mind, in order to succeed a coin needs network effect which is created by the community willing to buy and hodl - tech is not sufficient enough (we saw this from btc's first generation shitcoin alternatives).

So far Monero has a community that is willing to buy and hodl, and if the community keeps buying and holding, more people will join into the party and that will accelerate the network effect and price surge to the Moon^TM.

If success = price being really high then sure your model works.

Personally it may be fairer to say that price play a part of success. To me it shouldn't play a large part of the "success" definition.

Success doesn't only mean people willing to buy and hold a crypto. Usage/utility and transactional/speculative volume needs to be a factor.

If people are just buying and holding then it is essentially an example of the greater fool theory. Granted that is such a broad spectrum of things that is described as markets go up and down, but I personally would like it if people bought XMR if they need to, not want to just because of hoping the price goes higher.

Then again speculators gonna spec...cu....late.

Success may also involve a threshold of users/nodes that a crypto surpasses. Hitting critical mass is on the road to success, but is it success? I don't think so.

If it holds its adoption over long periods of time then yes it would be successful. But this is 2.5 years into the coin's life, kind of early to call monero successful...yet.

[nioc]

Last week I bought at 150 with the intention of buying on the way down. My first buy on the way down was yesterday at 170.  I still can't get used to paying for bricks and receiving pebbles.  My subconscious feels we are going up from here.