[XMR] Monero Speculation

[KeyJockey]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

I think, for most people who are actual *users* of bitcoin the scaling debate is mainly about the rising miner fees.

The thing that made me realize that maybe the fear and doom over the scaling debate was overdone was the realization a while back that, suppose bitcoin value went up by a factor of 1,000 so we were looking at $1 Million per bitcoin BUT the fee for transacting also went up by 1000X so it'd cost still 0.0005 bitcoin (currently about 74 cents) or in that case $740.00 to make a transaction.

If you could snap your fingers and magically make that happen, would you do it?  $1 Million per bitcoin IF it cost $740 to move it around?

Being honest, I'd have to say HELL YEAH I'd still take that deal, LOL.  Of course I'd make a lot less transactions but I'd still make it happen.

Now, granted, in that scenario it's a huge open question IF bitcoin as-is could still actually continue as a viable ongoing project OR if the economics of it in that vastly revised scenario would lead to the entire project totally failing, eventually, since if there's little *usage* in fact it's doubtful (?) that the value would persist.

But I think most people can't think it thru that deeply.

Seems like as long at the price is going up but the fees are relatively the same even if also going up... nothing may change.

Of course in this scenario also I'd expect another crypto coin (ahem, Monero) to have a solid shot at taking over the actual *transactions* once BTC is only a store of value and so expensive to move.  So, again having a hedged position in XMR it'd be just fine with me if $1 Million BTC had $740 miner fees, if the world was in that situation using Monero for transactions in place of what Bitcoin's doing today (but XMR was at $1000+ where BTC is today, with about $0.74 transaction fee)

[kurious]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

Scaling hasn't gone away, but now looks like it will (and LTC seems ok with Segwit)

So it looks hunky dory.. BUT (a possible worry to note):

Bitfinex is way higher than all other main exchanges and has 'led' this rise.  However, BFX has no exit route in cash now.  So people are having to buy BTC to get out...  There are people who thinks BFX has messed with Tether and may have run a fractional reserve scam either in BTC (or possibly USDT) and that it might blow up...

So part of the hike in price may have been led by an exchange with a whiff of Gox about it.

Either way, as you would expect WallObserver bulls think it's all 'to be expected' and it's just what happens every time after a halving - but personally I think it's looking a little too-good-to-be-true. For me I don't get it, the fundamentals have not changed enough.

I have just cashed a few out, but I have no idea if I am right to have done so.   I just don't want to kick myself like I did after the 2013 run....

[kurious]

In other news - a couple of 2hr green candles for us.

Good to see...

[smooth]

In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link)

I think at least small diversions into BTC have to be on topic given its dominant position on the crypto market and huge role in overall sentiment (including XMR).

My answer to your questions is that BTC is trading as a speculative asset and store of value. Scaling doesn't matter for the foreseeable future because whether people buy coffee on the blockchain anytime soon makes absolutely no difference to the important value drivers at this point, and even several dollars of tx fees (well above what is being paid now) is perfectly okay for moving funds between exchanges.

There is a risk that scaling doesn't get fixed ever, and that would likely matter, but whether it gets fixed in 2017 or 2027 (or at least 2022) may not matter much if at all.

[Shiroslullaby]

I guess you are referring to this recent video? Seems that I have something to watch tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

Greg Maxwell on Confidential Transactions, 28 April 2017
Speakers at Coinbase, Published on May 2, 2017

I literally just opened this video in my browser. About to watch it as I eat lunch.

[c789]

I guess you are referring to this recent video? Seems that I have something to watch tonight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

Greg Maxwell on Confidential Transactions, 28 April 2017
Speakers at Coinbase, Published on May 2, 2017

I literally just opened this video in my browser. About to watch it as I eat lunch.

You're in for a treat. He does an excellent job.

[Shiroslullaby]

"I had a slide in the deck that was like 'Dash LOL' and nothing else"

Really good presentation.
Anyone who is interested in the future of Bitcoin, or alt-coins like Monero, Dash, Zcash and their privacy features
definitely needs to watch this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHPYNZ8i1cU

[explorer]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

Scaling hasn't gone away, but now looks like it will (and LTC seems ok with Segwit)

So it looks hunky dory.. BUT (a possible worry to note):

Bitfinex is way higher than all other main exchanges and has 'led' this rise.  However, BFX has no exit route in cash now.  So people are having to buy BTC to get out...  There are people who thinks BFX has messed with Tether and may have run a fractional reserve scam either in BTC (or possibly USDT) and that it might blow up...

So part of the hike in price may have been led by an exchange with a whiff of Gox about it.

Either way, as you would expect WallObserver bulls think it's all 'to be expected' and it's just what happens every time after a halving - but personally I think it's looking a little too-good-to-be-true. For me I don't get it, the fundamentals have not changed enough.

I think we need to back off and look at the larger picture, not just crypto.  The world is going haywire, and there is no "safe" asset.  There's a LOT of cash out there looking for a place to roost.  Crypto is going to continue to absorb an increasing share of it.  Bitcoin can go WAY up on shaky fundamentals.  Just ask the shitcoin crew.  Fundamentals don't count for much right now.  After the money gets in the door, it will start to look around, but to start with it goes with the main stream.

I have just cashed a few out, but I have no idea if I am right to have done so.   I just don't want to kick myself like I did after the 2013 run....

 IMO The rise hasn't yet begun (OK, so I'm usually wrong...).  I'd wait for something that starts to look exponential.  This is a mere swell before the wave. A 'heads up'  Like seeing $250-300 in 2013.  It just got the party started.

[KeyJockey]

I'm not fully convinced there's actually anything real to Technical Analysis ("drawing lines on a chart" LOL) but fact is that people looking for patterns *might* just be self-fulfilling prophecies, i.e. traders see Cup And Handle, expect it means a big price jump coming, so they buy... and that drives price up!

In any case, very clear strong Cup And Handle here for sure... even easier to see on zoomed out BitcoinWisdom page :



So, have at it boys... let 'er rip!!!

[kurious]

Ok, I'd like to ask a question.
In many ways this is off topic (I apologise Smooth... at a pinch I could probably make a tenuous XMR link) but I want to ask this question here, rather than BTC speculation because that board is well....full of knobs. And conversely, this thread isn't (well Adolf and that duck character apart).

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

Is this a wave of FOMO?  Are whales manipulating the market so they can get a good exit price? Does someone know something most don't? Have a pile of rich drunken idiots discovered crypto?  Is this linked to dodgy exchanges and money 'trapped' in the eco-system?

I'd be interested in your sincere and serious thoughts (or stupid if you prefer but if I'd have wanted cultist dictates or 'honeybadger' comments, I'd have gone to aforementioned board).

Scaling hasn't gone away, but now looks like it will (and LTC seems ok with Segwit)

So it looks hunky dory.. BUT (a possible worry to note):

Bitfinex is way higher than all other main exchanges and has 'led' this rise.  However, BFX has no exit route in cash now.  So people are having to buy BTC to get out...  There are people who thinks BFX has messed with Tether and may have run a fractional reserve scam either in BTC (or possibly USDT) and that it might blow up...

So part of the hike in price may have been led by an exchange with a whiff of Gox about it.

Either way, as you would expect WallObserver bulls think it's all 'to be expected' and it's just what happens every time after a halving - but personally I think it's looking a little too-good-to-be-true. For me I don't get it, the fundamentals have not changed enough.

I think we need to back off and look at the larger picture, not just crypto.  The world is going haywire, and there is no "safe" asset.  There's a LOT of cash out there looking for a place to roost.  Crypto is going to continue to absorb an increasing share of it.  Bitcoin can go WAY up on shaky fundamentals.  Just ask the shitcoin crew.  Fundamentals don't count for much right now.  After the money gets in the door, it will start to look around, but to start with it goes with the main stream.

I have just cashed a few out, but I have no idea if I am right to have done so.   I just don't want to kick myself like I did after the 2013 run....

 IMO The rise hasn't yet begun (OK, so I'm usually wrong...).  I'd wait for something that starts to look exponential.  This is a mere swell before the wave. A 'heads up'   Like seeing $250-300 in 2013.  It just got the party started.

No one will be happier than me if you're right - especially if Monero holds up as well as it is just now...

My stash has just reached its own ATH, my only problem now is how I can cash any more out without silly levels of capital gains tax.  

[kurious]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

[prabakharras]

Monero raising like a mountain to $25 https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/usd
Congratulations to all the winners who got right

[explorer]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

Yeah, topped C$35 today 

[KeyJockey]

I make it XMR $25 based on Stamp prices.

Sweet.

Is this dollar-denominated All Time High?  I forgot... what did we hit in dollar terms last summer?

[nanobrain]

Thanks for all the replies people Appreciated.

I could accept that the new money coming in was genuine investment if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating; if economic sentiment was so negative we would be seeing increases in traditional alternative investments as well as new alternative investments.

So the money coming into crypto is either new and naive or not looking for any long term investment; or it is not new money but existing investors who have become intoxicated with daily profits and are committing more capital.  Regardless fundamentals have become irrelevant to many.  That suits the 'whales' and the Chinese miners who, being more acquainted with cryptos whims and vagaries, are looking for a profitable exit route.  And such a route has been made more difficult by circumstances at Finex and PBC dictats.

So we find ourselves in a situation where coins with no significant utility are worth 80USD, an anonymous coin which isnt actually anonymous (I'm looking at you Dash) is worth near a 100USD and a coin that is no longer fungible is worth over 1500usd.  This strikes me as a market that has collectively lost its sense of judgement and proportion (behaviour takes strange turns in large groups) and irrational markets are neither safe nor predictable places to store wealth.
 
For me, there may well be further profits ahead but the correction is going to be swift, deep and bloody.

[aminorex]

I could accept that the new money coming in was genuine investment if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating;

Monies don't have to flow in, for btcusd to rise.  It suffices for outflows to be reduced.

As long as bitfinex arbitrageurs continue to book gains in btc, given the volumes involved in that trade, the btc avaliable for outflow sales will be constrained correspondingly.  When they decide to convert to another asset outside of crypto, btc usd will see corresponding downward pressure.

I know that at 5oz xaubtc I would be cashing out some proportion of crypto.  Others are likely to do so sooner.

[iCEBREAKER]

So....what is going on with BTC?

Everything I have read recently is negative with regard to 'fundamentals' and market confidence and all the blocksize squabbles. In fact, I saw a quote recently along the lines of "anyone who knows anything about BTC would not be investing now." But the price keeps going up.

The negativity comes from FUD created by Roger, Jihan, Gavin, Sirir, Falkvinge, Janssens, and the rest of the NeverCore Butthurt Unlimited brigade.

For the past year, BTC has been afflicted by ASICboost and AntBleed creating perverse incentives for Jihan to block segwit.

Now that Bitmain's malfeasance and treachery are public knowledge, Bitcoin may respond in ways conducive to segwit activation (eg honeybadger gets medieval on Roger).  

Segwit means Lightning and Mimblewimble.  Lightning means infinite TPS, Mimblewimble means fungibility, privacy, and bounded mempool growth/management.  The market is now less hesitant to begin pricing in those milestones on the scaling roadmap.

In terms of OP, I'm expecting XMR to go up in USD, but sideways or down in BTC.  

Possible game changers: mobile wallet, Coinbase/GDAX listing, DNM acceleration, altcoin or XMR-only ETF, institutional investment, Dash implodes when Evan goes to jail, etc. 

[KeyJockey]

In terms of OP, I'm expecting XMR to go up in USD, but sideways or down in BTC.  

Yeah better get used to that... kinda already been happening lately: my "comfortable number" for XMR in BTC last couple months has been "0.015" i.e. as long as that's what's showing on my laptop's menu bar, I know Monero's okay.

Any days it was showing less than the 15's (a couple times) I got a bit concerned, but fortunately it never lasted too long.

Now however?  Today we're looking at just 16's-ish all day, bouncing 16-17 etc, so normally it'd be getting close to concern.

BUT NO, actually in fiat dollars we're hitting new highs!!   "This Is Fine"...

Just gotta get used to the new paradigm and check both numbers I guess, LOL

P.S. {Edit}

...if it weren't for the fact metals are currently taking a beating...

Bear in mind that gold and silver are very likely *still* highly manipulated to keep 'paper prices' extremely suppressed (http://www.silverdoctors.com/tag/silver-manipulation/) -- in theory crypto can't (yet?) be manipulated like this, so maybe that's why (?)

[aminorex]

Reviewing my posting history, it strikes me that I occasionally behaved quite a bit below my current standards. This note is directed to the Monero Speculation thread, because it has been my principal posting venue since it's inception, and hence my apologies are most due here.

Specifically, I wish to apologize for (1) arrogant, domineering argumentation styles or intellectual jiu jitsu, (2) self-aggrandizing impostures, (3) creating the impression that financial gain was a central goal or essential to a prosperous life, and (4) that my personal accomplishments, qualifications, or connections were somehow grandiose.  While I have not identified any actual falsehoods in my posts, upon review it is clear that some were (if not consciously, nonetheless in practice, and very likely by subconscious intent) misleading puffery, by their unstated implications.

All of these aspects of my posting history are beneath the standards to which I adhere, and could potentially work to the detriment of anyone thus misled.  I found it emotionally gratifying to boast of my successes at times when I was experiencing frustrating and humiliating setbacks in other, more important, areas.  I took on excessive risk, a form of gambling addiction, because the euphoria of rapid gains assuaged a deep internal shame at the mediocrity of my other achievements.  I was blessed to have identified a field in which, and a strategy whereby, those risks were abundantly rewarded; however, luck is not wisdom - nor is even the most incisive and insightful analysis, if it is not subordinated to the service of a worthy aim, or is conducted with inauthenticity or careless of its unintended consequences.

I like to think that my influence has helped others achieve a higher degree of financial freedom than they might otherwise have experienced.  But if that came at the cost of enslavement to greed or obsession with markets squeezing more important things out of their lives, it was no benefit, but an actual harm.

Likewise, I hope that I have encouraged preparedness for reasonably foreseeable adversities.  But if this was achieved by instilling fear or anxiety, or if it caused hostility to people associated with the mechanisms underlying the phenomena for which preparedness is warranted, I would be very much at fault.

It is my hope that by drawing attention to my past misbehaviors I can mitigate any harm which they caused.  I prefer not to further distract from the topic of this thread by engaging in a public discussion or follow-up to this post, but I am available by PM for further discussion.  In particular, if anyone finds their emotional life controlled by the events in crypto, or by their material fortunes, I would like to offer whatever help I may in escaping the kinds of addictive behaviors which yearning for a false hope have caused in me. Feel free to contact me privately.

When rising prices cause rising mood and falling prices cause falling countenance, something is very wrong.  If nothing else, it is counterproductive to good decision-making.  Don't be that guy (or gal).  Get out and enjoy the world, and do some good in it.  Be physically, emotionally, and spiritually healthier for it. I hope to see you there

[aminorex]

Segwit means Lightning and Mimblewimble.  Lightning means infinite TPS, Mimblewimble means fungibility, privacy, and bounded mempool growth/management.  

Yes.  But I wouldn't bet on that any time soon.