[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Rhosadah]

This may be a dumb question, but I'm genuinely curious why people put up huge ask/bid orders far beyond where the price will likely go in the near future. For example, the 18,000 XMR sell order at 0.008 on poloniex. Beyond the obvious reasons, what are they hoping to accomplish?

The most obvious explanation tends to be the right one.

They may speculate and profit from the offerings in the poloniex market

[KeyJockey]

does anyone have a new meme to celebrate this joyous occasion ?

LOL this one for me just never gets old...

[Hueristic]

does anyone have a new meme to celebrate this joyous occasion ?

LOL this one for me just never gets old...

Or this one!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHg8qIKJo1I

[aminorex]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.  Strangely, all of my evidence-based estimators of XMR f.m.v. indicate that even the current unexpectedly high clearing price is undervaluing XMR.  My newly calibrated f.m.v. estimate is 32usd.  Probably it will take a while to catch up to that, however, since some sort of profit-taking cycle should usually occur after a run-up.

Perhaps the strongest pessimistic counter-argument in my head at the moment is "sell in May": In a broad asset deflation, everything gets sold, and given current ratios in U.S. equities (valuation and leverage), any summer slump could easily become a contagious rout.  But if crypto really is becoming a diversification asset (even in a very small but still meaningful relative to BTC market cap way) that pessimistic argument will fail dramatically.

Anyhow, I am not comfortable reducing exposure here, despite the recent run-up.  Usually, after a run-up, I would just shut up (to avoid my loose lips harming people who might sell too much, and miss out on longer-term gains), and would go more into btc with my trading stock, but this time I think it is probably best to stay at the high end of my exposure range.  Not only market conditions, but also technical developments seem biased bullish in xmr, while btc seems to be enjoying undue complacency regarding scaling and governance problems.

[Hueristic]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.  Strangely, all of my evidence-based estimators of XMR f.m.v. indicate that even the current unexpectedly high clearing price is undervaluing XMR.  My newly calibrated f.m.v. estimate is 32usd.  Probably it will take a while to catch up to that, however, since some sort of profit-taking cycle should usually occur after a run-up.

Perhaps the strongest pessimistic counter-argument in my head at the moment is "sell in May": In a broad asset deflation, everything gets sold, and given current ratios in U.S. equities (valuation and leverage), any summer slump could easily become a contagious rout.  But if crypto really is becoming a diversification asset (even in a very small but still meaningful relative to BTC market cap way) that pessimistic argument will fail dramatically.

Anyhow, I am not comfortable reducing exposure here, despite the recent run-up.  Usually, after a run-up, I would just shut up (to avoid my loose lips harming people who might sell too much, and miss out on longer-term gains), and would go more into btc with my trading stock, but this time I think it is probably best to stay at the high end of my exposure range.  Not only market conditions, but also technical developments seem biased bullish in xmr, while btc seems to be enjoying undue complacency regarding scaling and governance problems.

Yet surprisingly bubbling, why?

[bitebits]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.

First great that you keep posting, don't feel responsible for other people's (financial) decisions. You are never right whatever you write. As a non-native English speaker I never have to use the dictionary as much as with your posts. They are great reads.

The quoted above I can't figure out though, how do these two facts link together? Do you mean the Bitcoin price is inflated because of Bitfinex' banking issues, and Monero being more connected to the XMR/BTC rate than the XMR/USD rate (causing the USD value of Monero to temporarily go up)?


Edit: Or is it the USD profits of the Bitfinex arbitrage opportunity flowing into Monero (via the still to them available Taiwan banks that would be)?

[aminorex]

So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic.  Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.

First great that you keep posting, don't feel responsible for other people's (financial) decisions.

I have some evidence that my financial opinions have been overwhelmingly, but not uniformly, beneficial to those who considered them.  My concern and apology was focused more on the issues of character which I am still working through: Excessive interest in financial gain, a self-aggrandizing posture rooted in deep-seated shame - probably due to abandonment in childhood - and a willingness to bully the opposition.  I will post ever more cautiously, as a result.  I don't want to be the guy I see in my posting history, who is an arrogant egotistical greedy fool, no matter how superficially clever he might be on occasion.

The quoted above I can't figure out though, how do these two facts link together? Do you mean the Bitcoin price is inflated because of Bitfinex' banking issues, and Monero being more connected to the XMR/BTC rate than the XMR/USD rate (causing the USD value of Monero to temporarily go up)?

Precisely this, but I would not say 'temporarily'.  We saw the inflation of btcusd when mt.gox was allowing btc but not fiat withdrawals, although that case ended very differently because of the Potemkin trading and ultimately the insolvency of mt.gox - neither of which appear to apply to bfx. Here only the first of those events was played out, and it ended well, in arbitrage.  At first, I think bfx was holding xmr down, as xmr holders on bfx moved their funds to plx, and liquidated some fraction.  Later, the rising btcusd clearing was positive for xmrusd, negative for xmrbtc.  More recently, as btc upward pressure was reduced by the arbitrage coming into play, xmr enjoyed a bit of the slingshot effect associated with a btc trend rolling over.  The compelling question then becomes: what is the natural fourth act in such a drama?  Ordinarily I would say a profit-taking sell off should occur, but xmr seems far too closely held for that right now, going by the exchange numbers.

Edit: Or is it the USD profits of the Bitfinex arbitrage opportunity flowing into Monero (via the still to them available Taiwan banks that would be)?

I don't credit the arbitrageurs with that much intelligence and foresight.  Usually arbitrageurs are on the risk-averse end, and tend not to hold speculatively - albeit in this case we are talking about crypto-involved arbitrageurs, who are thus more likely to be aware of the merits of Monero, so it is not entirely out of the question - yet I would assume they are more inclined to stock btc if anything crypto.

Edit: corrected "potempkin" to "Potemkin"

[LennyCarl]

Lots of excellent posters in this thread, but aminorex, I think you take the cake. You kinda disappeared when I starting getting into this cryptostuff so I hadn't read many of your posts. You seem like a really good person.

I really enjoy checking this thread out to read all the insightful, funny, and interesting posts, on the daily.

Just wanted to say that. Go Monero!

P.S. Looked up "potemkin", lol.

edit:spelling

[Bee Cho Chen]

I think XMR should be worth AT LEAST $50. Should honestly be worth over $100

[owlcatz]

I think XMR should be worth AT LEAST $50. Should honestly be worth over $100

Just sit tight. It's coming. I will eat this post in 1 year if not.

[novag]

Something big coming...

[rpietila]

Something big coming...

Yeah, and no TL;DR: 

[KeyJockey]

If SOMEONE out there is blatantly TRYING to "paint the tape" to make the most obvious "Cup-And-Handle" that they can possibly make...



...they're doin' a damn good job of it here, LOL

   

{Edit} They've even got some kind of "bubbly liquid" down there inside the bottom of the cup... 

[Billy Bunter]

Interesting rationalization of the current market and why Monero is not doing as well as others:

https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/69q0cj/bytecoin_is_up_155_and_the_real_explanation_for/

[Bee Cho Chen]

Interesting rationalization of the current market and why Monero is not doing as well as others:

https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/69q0cj/bytecoin_is_up_155_and_the_real_explanation_for/

Great read. Thanks

[kurious]

Interesting rationalization of the current market and why Monero is not doing as well as others:

https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/69q0cj/bytecoin_is_up_155_and_the_real_explanation_for/

Makes sense, so basically a good honest coin can't compete against easily pumped, pre-mined coins...  In the short term.

Yes, the alts market is a frothy, easy to manipulate place... But with the whole thing in a bubble, it cannot last forever. 

In the end, only real coins with real use cases will win out.

[kurious]

$30 ladies and gentlemen!

An unexpected but welcome treat....

[KeyJockey]

$30 ladies and gentlemen!
An unexpected but welcome treat....

Where ya been bro?  HoneyPony been bouncing around this range now for awhile already... at least since, what is it?  Yesterday?

So, what?  Yer not sittin' here glued to your Poloniex browser tab, like the rest of us?  LOL

Srsly with trash like Dash re-taking $100 again (wtf?) nobody should be surprised when XMR gets to $50+ sooner than we all expected, maybe.

OR "srsly" again OTOH it's really good IMHO that XMR is being left out of the crazy bullshit P&D games, so we can achieve $100 "soon enough" on real organic sustainable basis.  Maybe by year end?  No problem I'll be here & can wait as long as it takes...

[kurious]

$30 ladies and gentlemen!
An unexpected but welcome treat....

Where ya been bro?  HoneyPony been bouncing around this range now for awhile already... at least since, what is it?  Yesterday?

So, what?  Yer not sittin' here glued to your Poloniex browser tab, like the rest of us?  LOL

Srsly with trash like Dash re-taking $100 again (wtf?) nobody should be surprised when XMR gets to $50+ sooner than we all expected, maybe.

OR "srsly" again OTOH it's really good IMHO that XMR is being left out of the crazy bullshit P&D games, so we can achieve $100 "soon enough" on real organic sustainable basis.  Maybe by year end?  No problem I'll be here & can wait as long as it takes...

Unfortunately I have a life that seems to get in the way - but after reading 'why Monero can't pump' just a few minutes ago, to see some serious green candles taking us to ATH (stamp BTC price) levels is hugely uplifting.

I have been in XMR all the way and when it got below 0.001 in the doldrums era, I just thought 'to hell with this, I am backing this coin come hell or high water' and bought the hell out of it to average down my cost price with a fair slice of my BTC.

Now XMR dwarfs my BTC holdings by a large margin, so I am and will remain one of its biggest fans.

This bubble market will pass and when the dust settles Monero will certainly be in there.  For sure.  And so will I.

[kurious]

Am I allowed to say:

BOOM!