[XMR] Monero Speculation

[KeyJockey]

Risto, I don't understand what you're after here, with this betting proposal?

You want people HERE to bet *against* you that crypto currencies will do well in the coming months/year?

Seems like you may have better luck finding a taker on some forum like buttcoin or some anti-crypto places, no? 

Folks around here are largely bullish and BELIEVE IN this stuff, i.e. not likely to take opposite position from you...

Also, if you really want to "gamble" to get the funds you need (not a good idea as others have already said, but whatever) take a look at https://edgeless.io maybe - this is a zero-house-edge game (in theory) so your EV is "0" at least & maybe you can just skim off the variance if you have a large enough bankroll, LOL

[rpietila]

Risto, I don't understand what you're after here, with this betting proposal?

You want people HERE to bet *against* you that crypto currencies will do well in the coming months/year?

Seems like you may have better luck finding a taker on some forum like buttcoin or some anti-crypto places, no? 

Folks around here are largely bullish and BELIEVE IN this stuff, i.e. not likely to take opposite position from you...

Also, if you really want to "gamble" to get the funds you need (not a good idea as others have already said, but whatever) take a look at https://edgeless.io maybe - this is a zero-house-edge game (in theory) so your EV is "0" at least & maybe you can just skim off the variance if you have a large enough bankroll, LOL

I CAN take both sides (just indicate your wish). I HAVE in my possession resources to influence it (on the margin( ofc)).

[cAPSLOCK]

The only caveat to this IMHO is when the ALT bubble bursts that is naturally going to drag XMR with it.  We can only hope that the muted participation in the bubble is matched by the participation in the carnage.

I would say this scenario is playing out as outlined above.  The bigger question is will the current bitcoin bull help the alt bubble fully shuffle off or just tease us today?

Here's to XMR holding relatively firm in the carnage.

[chilly2k]

I wouldn't. Of course, in my country cryptocurrency profits are for free because the high court of the EU declared cryptos as a currency (if you go on holidays outside of the eurozone, you don't pay taxes either for the foreign fiat currency you buy right?)
If the situation is different in your country, I'd argue that they aren't realized profits yet until you convert to fiat? You could still lose it all (from their perspective) so would be useless to pay taxes on income you never realized right?
But I'm not a lawyer.

In the US this is kind of a grey area. The question is whether exchanging one crypto for another is a "like kind" transaction. If you sell one pasture and buy another that is considered a like kind transaction and you don't have to pay taxes, you just carry the basis forward. But if you sell one stock and buy another that is specifically not considered like kind and you have to pay taxes.

The IRS hasn't ruled on crypto as like kind or not, but most people who have looked into it, including myself, think it's not. So if you sell appreciated Bitcoin to buy Monero you have to pay taxes on your gain in Bitcoin.  Even if you decide to claim like kind on crypto transactions you have to report the transaction to the IRS, so they will know who to come after when they finally make a ruling.

The one thing you do not want to do is fail to declare your crypto transactions to the IRS. They WILL find you.

    I'm not a tax expert, but I've dealt with this for many years.  and of course this is US only...   The "like kind" transactions your referring to generally apply to real estate, and for that "like kind" means any Real Estate.  You could sell your pasture and buy a parking lot, and it's still "like kind".   There are many rules involved and it's not as easy as just saying you sold and bought.  Although you do sell to USD and buy with USD.  It's considered a trade.  

   Your analogy with stocks is not a very good example.     "But if you sell one stock and buy another that is specifically not considered like kind and you have to pay taxes."  In this case you are selling stock A, and receiving USD, and then using USD's to buy stock B.  In that case the gains you made on stock A have to be reported and taxes paid on them.  Then Stock B's basis is whatever you bought it at.  

   To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

  Again, all just my opinion.  

[KeyJockey]

I've begun to question this idea that the "alt bubble" necessarily MUST "burst"... which seems to be an (admittedly probably correct) foregone conclusion.

But, is it really?

Let's consider the bigger picture here that "money" pouring into all crypto now, is coming from the world of fiat currency.

Maybe ANY CRYPTO AT ALL is, in fact, better than ANY fiat?

I mean, compared to the dollar (if the dollar were "invented" today as a shitcoin) isn't some garbage like Dash even still better? LOL

This "alt coin pump" epic era that we are all sitting here living thru (and profiting from) may NOT really BE exactly what we THINK we are seeing...

[Febo]

Maybe somebody knows when they are planning website redesign?

There was a meeting about it only 2 days ago. Let me try to find what was said for you.

Here you have:

https://monerobase.com/wiki/WebdevMeeting_2017-05-07

I also found this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/69n0ca/my_ffs_proposal_to_getmoneroorg_redesign/

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/69m61h/getmoneroorg_redesign_proposal/

[cAPSLOCK]

I've begun to question this idea that the "alt bubble" necessarily MUST "burst"... which seems to be an (admittedly probably correct) foregone conclusion.

But, is it really?

Let's consider the bigger picture here that "money" pouring into all crypto now, is coming from the world of fiat currency.

Maybe ANY CRYPTO AT ALL is, in fact, better than ANY fiat?

I mean, compared to the dollar (if the dollar were "invented" today as a shitcoin) isn't some garbage like Dash even still better? LOL

This "alt coin pump" epic era that we are all sitting here living thru (and profiting from) may NOT really BE exactly what we THINK we are seeing...

I do think all bubbles must burst.  And you are rightly pointing out possibly the biggest one of all the USD.  The USD bubble could burst tomorrow morning, or perhaps in our great grandchildrens lives.  It is very easy to underestimate the might of the USD.  After all it has survived a massive amount of damage in the last 90 years.

The alt bubble?  That thing has only been with us for a few months.  I *is* going to pop.  And pop hard.  We should HOPE it does.

The price of some crypto defies all logic. We like to pick on DASH...  but lets look at ripple instead.  As of this post Ripple is woth SIX BILLION DOLLARS.  It should not be worth a 10th of that.  Not a 100th.

The alt bubble is going to pop.  (I really kind of hope that is happening now)

Fortunes will be made... fortunes will be lost.

Our little survivor XMR is positioned to be a fortune maker IMHO.

[Nathan047]

I am filing my income tax for 2016, and I am wondering if you declare your XMR holdings in your income tax?

BTW, I live in the Netherlands.

Here in the US you only need to note the profits you’ve gotten when you convert back to USD, as cyptocurrencies are considered “property” and not “money.” However, I have no idea how the Netherlands treats Bitcoin.

[Zegra]

I wouldn't. Of course, in my country cryptocurrency profits are for free because the high court of the EU declared cryptos as a currency (if you go on holidays outside of the eurozone, you don't pay taxes either for the foreign fiat currency you buy right?)
If the situation is different in your country, I'd argue that they aren't realized profits yet until you convert to fiat? You could still lose it all (from their perspective) so would be useless to pay taxes on income you never realized right?
But I'm not a lawyer.

In the US this is kind of a grey area. The question is whether exchanging one crypto for another is a "like kind" transaction. If you sell one pasture and buy another that is considered a like kind transaction and you don't have to pay taxes, you just carry the basis forward. But if you sell one stock and buy another that is specifically not considered like kind and you have to pay taxes.

The IRS hasn't ruled on crypto as like kind or not, but most people who have looked into it, including myself, think it's not. So if you sell appreciated Bitcoin to buy Monero you have to pay taxes on your gain in Bitcoin.  Even if you decide to claim like kind on crypto transactions you have to report the transaction to the IRS, so they will know who to come after when they finally make a ruling.

The one thing you do not want to do is fail to declare your crypto transactions to the IRS. They WILL find you.

So what are you going to do when you buy a few ripple and it skyrockets and it hits your limit sell order and immediately back through your buy order a bit lower but a bit later your stop loss market order is hit and you divide some between stellar and convert some to XMR. And a bit later you cash out of stellar and buy something. And each time you change crypto you have to go through BTC first. And that was in 3 minutes

How the hell do you fill that in your tax declaration?

[saddambitcoin]

I wouldn't. Of course, in my country cryptocurrency profits are for free because the high court of the EU declared cryptos as a currency (if you go on holidays outside of the eurozone, you don't pay taxes either for the foreign fiat currency you buy right?)
If the situation is different in your country, I'd argue that they aren't realized profits yet until you convert to fiat? You could still lose it all (from their perspective) so would be useless to pay taxes on income you never realized right?
But I'm not a lawyer.

In the US this is kind of a grey area. The question is whether exchanging one crypto for another is a "like kind" transaction. If you sell one pasture and buy another that is considered a like kind transaction and you don't have to pay taxes, you just carry the basis forward. But if you sell one stock and buy another that is specifically not considered like kind and you have to pay taxes.

The IRS hasn't ruled on crypto as like kind or not, but most people who have looked into it, including myself, think it's not. So if you sell appreciated Bitcoin to buy Monero you have to pay taxes on your gain in Bitcoin.  Even if you decide to claim like kind on crypto transactions you have to report the transaction to the IRS, so they will know who to come after when they finally make a ruling.

The one thing you do not want to do is fail to declare your crypto transactions to the IRS. They WILL find you.

So what are you going to do when you buy a few ripple and it skyrockets and it hits your limit sell order and immediately back through your buy order a bit lower but a bit later your stop loss market order is hit and you divide some between stellar and convert some to XMR. And a bit later you cash out of stellar and buy something. And each time you change crypto you have to go through BTC first. And that was in 3 minutes

How the hell do you fill that in your tax declaration?

calculate your gains/losses with this https://bitcoin.tax/

then simply report a capital gain or loss on your taxes.

[Hueristic]

Monero is and will be a niche coin.

Until it isn't.  That particular niche is a peculiarly viral one, under the right conditions - conditions such as financial repression, bail-ins, quantitative easing, negative interest rates, confiscatory taxation, capital controls, counterparty chain failures, trade globalization, commodity deflation, sovereign instability, overregulation of trade, graft and extortion, kidnappings, class war, Owellian surveillance, corporate secrecy.  Oh, and then there is scalability...

If the world were becoming a safer, more congenial place, in which human dignity and self-determination was in the ascendance, the importance of privacy might erode over time.  If instead it becomes more dangerous, less stable, if the power of the rapacious rises, and confidence in the social, political, legal and economic paradigm declines, then the appeal of privacy, and it's market value, will rise, or even explode.

My view is that the probability mass is firmly on the latter side, culminating in a failure of old paradigms, and their replacement with new ones which are more robust to the causes of recent instability, and better adapted to the new opportunities which arise in the meantime.

We can calibrate from the mid-2013 precedent what marketcap is suppored by DNMs alone (accounting for their growth, and scaling by present market share).  It is enough to make it feasible to transact in a freely floating crypto at most practical sizes.  Securing wealth will drive the big gains after some such threshold is passed.  Confidential corporate transactions would suffice to take it "mainstream" soon thereafter.

Not to mention that even if it is a niche coin (which it isn't) it is the only current coin that can fill that niche therefore giving it massive value from that area alone. Oh wait I mentioned that.

On a side note it's great reading your posts again, forgot how much  I enjoy them.

[sp_skeptic]

To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

To me too, but that is entirely irrelevant. What matters is what the IRS thinks. I have spent a _lot_ of time researching this, and my conclusions have led me to declare and pay taxes on all my Bitcoin profits when converting to Monero. The upside is there is less tax to pay when selling the Monero because the basis will be higher.

The IRS will rule on this and if it goes the way I think it will go, those who have claimed like kind and declared their transactions as such will face penalties and interest. For those who haven't declared those transactions at all, it could be a lot worse.

It's onerous to declare all your transactions, but there is software that simplifies it. You just download your Coinbase or Poloniex logs and it creates the IRS report.

[bobabouey2]

To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

To me too, but that is entirely irrelevant. What matters is what the IRS thinks. I have spent a _lot_ of time researching this, and my conclusions have led me to declare and pay taxes on all my Bitcoin profits when converting to Monero. The upside is there is less tax to pay when selling the Monero because the basis will be higher.

The IRS will rule on this and if it goes the way I think it will go, those who have claimed like kind and declared their transactions as such will face penalties and interest. For those who haven't declared those transactions at all, it could be a lot worse.

It's onerous to declare all your transactions, but there is software that simplifies it. You just download your Coinbase or Poloniex logs and it creates the IRS report.

I agree with sp_skeptic.  And can add two practical examples showing why the direct exchange of one crypto for another (without going through USD) is not relevant.

1.  I buy gold, it appreciates.  I trade the gold for a car.  A barter transaction has occurred, it is a taxable even for disposition of the gold.  Doing it with crypto on a fancy exchange doesn't change this.  the barter rules was specifically what the IRS referenced when you "spend" crypto to buy something.

2.  If avoiding the USD transaction worked, you would have exchanges where you could exchange stocks directly.  Even if there was less liquidity and it was a little harder to match your exact transaction, the upside from deferring taxes when trading stocks would be huge.

[chilly2k]

To me, bitcoin is very different.  When you buy monero, your not selling bitcoin for USD, and then buying your monero with those USD's.  Your trading your bitcoin for moneros.  Your basis is whatever you paid for your bitcoin.  and your profit/loss is whatever you made on the sale (either bitcoin or monero) back to USD.  

To me too, but that is entirely irrelevant. What matters is what the IRS thinks. I have spent a _lot_ of time researching this, and my conclusions have led me to declare and pay taxes on all my Bitcoin profits when converting to Monero. The upside is there is less tax to pay when selling the Monero because the basis will be higher.

The IRS will rule on this and if it goes the way I think it will go, those who have claimed like kind and declared their transactions as such will face penalties and interest. For those who haven't declared those transactions at all, it could be a lot worse.

It's onerous to declare all your transactions, but there is software that simplifies it. You just download your Coinbase or Poloniex logs and it creates the IRS report.

   Playing Devils advocate here.  Where do you get the value of bitcoin at time your trade is made?  Since bitcoin can vary by a hundred or more dollars depending on where you look, is your choice,  IRS approved? 

 I don't really have to worry about this at the moment, but it will be interesting to see what the official stance is in the future.  I'll have to mention it to my CPA and see what he thinks.  Of course I have a feeling he'll say whatever will make him the most money...     

[KeyJockey]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

Stopped sounding "crazy" and started sounding "inevitable" after stupid DASH got there first.

Even more after Dash dipped back down to the $50's and now's come BACK to $100-ish again.

If someone told me this would happen a year ago I would've laughed 'em outta the room LOL

[nioc]

Maybe somebody knows when they are planning website redesign?

It is currently being worked on and I think people will like it 

[nioc]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

What always sounded crazy was $0.50

Recently I have found myself driving more slowly

[aminorex]

It is very easy to underestimate the might of the USD.  After all it has survived a massive amount of damage in the last 90 years.

Loosing 95% of its value in that time is almost indistinguishable from non-survival.  The residual is noise.

[kurious]

>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

What always sounded crazy was $0.50

Recently I have found myself driving more slowly

Ahem. I know exactly what you mean; life is a little more... precious of late.

[aminorex]

I strongly advise owning your crypto in an after-tax retirement account, so that gains are tax-free.