[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Satoshi had no idea what he was really doing as far as the cap is concerned.  He might just be picking numbers in his head and might have thought that a 21m cap might have been a good idea.  IMHO.

So there are 2.1 quadrillion currency units that will be produced in the bitcoin system. If you take the total value of all of the money on the planet thats about 60 trillion. If you divide 60 trillion by 2.1 quadrillion you get about 3 cents. So if bitcoin took the place of all money on the planet each currency unit would be worth about 3 cents. Which is a perfect amount of minimum resolution. So that's a pretty good guess where he came up with that figre. Next I'm thinking that he went back and put a decimal in there where he thought a bitcoin would end up being worth about a dollar after it gained a nice little niche community. So one is the wildly optimistic upper bound and the decimal is the realistic lower bound.

[Millionero]

[gembitz]

Satoshi had no idea what he was really doing as far as the cap is concerned.  He might just be picking numbers in his head and might have thought that a 21m cap might have been a good idea.  IMHO.

21 is lucky ~ :-D

[Millionero]

Was that you keeping keeping the price depressed the last few months? Oh wait, your a hacked account you can't answer for him.

In last couple months there was traded $5 Billions of Monero. You expect there is someone here who can  depress  Monero price? This is not 2014 anymore.  And I doubt Saudis or Rothschild's care for crypto much. 
...

Alot of people don't get my jokes.

On the internet, nobody hears your jolly tone of voice or sees the twinkle in your eye.  If you're using dry humor it's impossible to tell that it's a joke.
Next time put a clown face.

[KiXiNiT]

This is way off topic but I have bitcoin paper wallets that I want to split the bcash from and buy more monero. Whats the best way to go about doing this?

https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc and have fun downloading the full bitcoin blockchain, then just import your private keys.

You don't need to sync. Move Bitcoin to new addresses, then import old private keys in electrum cash wallet.

Just wanted to be clear; When I move my coins from a paper wallet, I should move it to a new paper wallet or an exchange like coinbase?
Then I import the old private keys to https://electroncash.org/?

Either choice will work.  New paper wallet is more secure.  Unless you plan to trade, I'd avoid an exchange.

Thanks

One year ago, XMR was $6.  A year before that, it was 40 cents. Today, XMR is $133.  One year from now, 1 XMR=$______

$1,000 by the end of 2018 looks to be a conservative expectation.

Conservative? $1,000 by end of 2018

Not sure if serious, might file this in with 0.07 by end of september and $425 by December just to be sure 

[Nathan047]

Satoshi had no idea what he was really doing as far as the cap is concerned.  He might just be picking numbers in his head and might have thought that a 21m cap might have been a good idea.  IMHO.

I'm gonna guess that 21 million had a mathematical significance combined with a reasonable amount for a global currency.


*Edit: Anon already explained it a few posts up:

So there are 2.1 quadrillion currency units that will be produced in the bitcoin system. If you take the total value of all of the money on the planet thats about 60 trillion. If you divide 60 trillion by 2.1 quadrillion you get about 3 cents. So if bitcoin took the place of all money on the planet each currency unit would be worth about 3 cents. Which is a perfect amount of minimum resolution. So that's a pretty good guess where he came up with that figre. Next I'm thinking that he went back and put a decimal in there where he thought a bitcoin would end up being worth about a dollar after it gained a nice little niche community. So one is the wildly optimistic upper bound and the decimal is the realistic lower bound.

[DaveyJones]

BTC whales adopting Monero is really a double advantage blade, tag my phrases...

Not to pop your bubble, but i doubt there's any whale that would invest in Monero as long as its coin supply is infinite.
Yes i know you call it tail emission which doesn't make it any better. It's by far the worst property of any coin.
It assures people the value will decrease over time.

All the non-arguments about fees not being enough to keep the miners active are so tiresome, there's no evidence to support that claim and completely oversees the fact that it is self balancing system.

Sure some coins get lost here and there but to assume you can even get a rough estimate of how much this would be is delusional. Why would the coin supply need to stay level? What is wrong with remaining coins being more scarce and gaining value?

If somebody were to fork Monero with a hard cap, now THAT would be a serious competitor in the market.

This right now is nothing but a pump and dump. Infinite coins wheeeee, infinite coins for everybody (just because it's 'slow' doesn't matter, still infinite, making the real value exactly 0)

Wow could you give atleast scientific reasons for that.... so 0.1% inflation the same as 1000% inflation .... got an economical phd ( not that those are worth much see econimical crisis ). We are not even at the price span where it matters ... almost all coins still have years of inflation in front of them yet they are rising... where is your reason for that. A small inflation atleast makes sure that a coin is gettin used... unlike your beloved finite coin..

[kurious]

This is way off topic but I have bitcoin paper wallets that I want to split the bcash from and buy more monero. Whats the best way to go about doing this?

https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc and have fun downloading the full bitcoin blockchain, then just import your private keys.

You don't need to sync. Move Bitcoin to new addresses, then import old private keys in electrum cash wallet.

Just wanted to be clear; When I move my coins from a paper wallet, I should move it to a new paper wallet or an exchange like coinbase?
Then I import the old private keys to https://electroncash.org/?

Either choice will work.  New paper wallet is more secure.  Unless you plan to trade, I'd avoid an exchange.

Thanks

One year ago, XMR was $6.  A year before that, it was 40 cents. Today, XMR is $133.  One year from now, 1 XMR=$______

$1,000 by the end of 2018 looks to be a conservative expectation.

Conservative? $1,000 by end of 2018

Not sure if serious, might file this in with 0.07 by end of september and $425 by December just to be sure 

Serious? Hopeful, but possible.  Monero has seen huge spikes in price before, so you must know if you are well-researched.

May I ask, though - do you actually have any Monero?

Fair question, since as you will know - most people here are both fans and (increasingly wealthy) holders.

[Donaldturp]

Satoshi had no idea what he was really doing as far as the cap is concerned.  He might just be picking numbers in his head and might have thought that a 21m cap might have been a good idea.  IMHO.

Anyway, I set my target up to $300 for Monero. I'll wait until the chinese whales drop in, when they decide to collect Monero, the price will boom hard and we'll have chance to make some great money from Monero coins.

[Febo]

When we see Bitcoin going up and Monero stays pegged to bitcoin is just matter of time when we will see new USD ATH.   I know there are more ways to tell ATH. I just use coinmarketcap price from 28th August. showing Monero was $154.58.

So when do you guys think we will pass that?

[slaman29]

Satoshi had no idea what he was really doing as far as the cap is concerned.  He might just be picking numbers in his head and might have thought that a 21m cap might have been a good idea.  IMHO.

Actually, even Satoshi himself seems to have admitted that these numbers were more or less at best an educated guess that he picked. It was from those new emails recently uncovered. But that's all really pointless anyway, and everything someone says can always be taken out of context and used to fit the purposes that are at hand. Whether Satoshi did or not, it has it merits. And it has its flaws. There's no such thing as a perfect equation, statisticians can attest to that!

All opinions are humble!

[aminorex]

Xmr has been rising faster than btc since October ended walonek started throwing insults.

Fixed that.

[Anon136]

Hi ! Why the price of monero grow fast these days ? do you know people ? i dont see a big news ..

The only thing preventing monero from being the dominant darknet currency was a lack of multisig. Multisig is particularly important for darknet transactions and particularly tricky for monero to implement. Fortunately despite the difficulty our amazing devs are preparing to push multisig support out onto the main net very soon. As stated a few posts above. Not just soon(tm) actually soon. This is very very big news. It's starting to be priced in but I do not think the implications of it are anywhere near all the way priced in. Monero is soon going to be the first cryptocurrency to see significant real world use since bitcoin.

Thank you for these explanations very clear, it makes me clearly want to ask what I can on before it goes up too high ..
Do you know if users of darknet sites today use more monero or bitcoin?

This is good fodder for speculation. I'm going to move the conversation over there and lets see if anyone has any idea over there.

Does anyone have a feel for the darknets? How common is monero over there? Is bitcoin still dominant? If so how close is monero behind it?

[generalizethis]

Hi ! Why the price of monero grow fast these days ? do you know people ? i dont see a big news ..

The only thing preventing monero from being the dominant darknet currency was a lack of multisig. Multisig is particularly important for darknet transactions and particularly tricky for monero to implement. Fortunately despite the difficulty our amazing devs are preparing to push multisig support out onto the main net very soon. As stated a few posts above. Not just soon(tm) actually soon. This is very very big news. It's starting to be priced in but I do not think the implications of it are anywhere near all the way priced in. Monero is soon going to be the first cryptocurrency to see significant real world use since bitcoin.

Thank you for these explanations very clear, it makes me clearly want to ask what I can on before it goes up too high ..
Do you know if users of darknet sites today use more monero or bitcoin?

This is good fodder for speculation. I'm going to move the conversation over there and lets see if anyone has any idea over there.

Does anyone have a feel for the darknets? How common is monero over there? Is bitcoin still dominant? If so how close is monero behind it?

Not sure where you'd get stats, but this shows an uptick in markets accepting moneroj: https://www.deepdotweb.com/2013/10/28/updated-llist-of-hidden-marketplaces-tor-i2p/

[Billy Bunter]

When we see Bitcoin going up and Monero stays pegged to bitcoin is just matter of time when we will see new USD ATH.   I know there are more ways to tell ATH. I just use coinmarketcap price from 28th August. showing Monero was $154.58.

So when do you guys think we will pass that?

This week

[aminorex]

Does anyone have a feel for the darknets? How common is monero over there? Is bitcoin still dominant? If so how close is monero behind it?

Not sure where you'd get stats, but this shows an uptick in markets accepting moneroj: https://www.deepdotweb.com/2013/10/28/updated-llist-of-hidden-marketplaces-tor-i2p/

The one which matters most now is Dream.  When Dream adds XMR the fundamentals will get a boost, which will only gradually be priced in - over, say, 9-12 months, over which time dnm volumes will have increased 30-50%.  Unless, of course, Dream devs front-run the fundamentals and hoard a lot of XMR in advance, which is rational to do. In that case the actual news could even be a short-term sell signal.

[rinus]

Guys, what do u think of the so called " crypto bubble " , i hear so much about the bubble the last 6 months... i have to admid , i fear the bursting bubble a bit but on the other hand,
i cant seem to believe it will burst already ... more and more people see btc or crypto as a safe haven ... in my opinion i think it all has to begin yet ...

any other opinions?

[Anon136]

Guys, what do u think of the so called " crypto bubble " , i hear so much about the bubble the last 6 months... i have to admid , i fear the bursting bubble a bit but on the other hand,
i cant seem to believe it will burst already ... more and more people see btc or crypto as a safe haven ... in my opinion i think it all has to begin yet ...

any other opinions?

Price is not a very useful indicator for gauging bubbles. I think the only really useful way to think about bubbles is to ask things like: How many of your neighbors own crypto? What about your family? Co workers? Does the corner shop accept any crypto as payment? What about the food lion? What about the walmart? There may be corrections on the way up to be sure. But we can't be in true bubble territory until a significant number of normal people have bought in.

[amaral1977]

Guys, what do u think of the so called " crypto bubble " , i hear so much about the bubble the last 6 months... i have to admid , i fear the bursting bubble a bit but on the other hand,
i cant seem to believe it will burst already ... more and more people see btc or crypto as a safe haven ... in my opinion i think it all has to begin yet ...

any other opinions?

Price is not a very useful indicator for gauging bubbles. I think the only really useful way to think about bubbles is to ask things like: How many of your neighbors own crypto? What about your family? Co workers? Does the corner shop accept any crypto as payment? What about the food lion? What about the walmart? There may be corrections on the way up to be sure. But we can't be in true bubble territory until a significant number of normal people have bought in.

Normal people....as opposed to? myself:)

[kurious]

Guys, what do u think of the so called " crypto bubble " , i hear so much about the bubble the last 6 months... i have to admid , i fear the bursting bubble a bit but on the other hand,
i cant seem to believe it will burst already ... more and more people see btc or crypto as a safe haven ... in my opinion i think it all has to begin yet ...

any other opinions?

Price is not a very useful indicator for gauging bubbles. I think the only really useful way to think about bubbles is to ask things like: How many of your neighbors own crypto? What about your family? Co workers? Does the corner shop accept any crypto as payment? What about the food lion? What about the walmart? There may be corrections on the way up to be sure. But we can't be in true bubble territory until a significant number of normal people have bought in.

Normal people....as opposed to? myself:)

If you were here a year or so ago and can remember seeing Bitcoin in three figures, you are probably a little avant garde compared to the great mass of people on this planet...