[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Hueristic]

I speculate PlusToken will try to wash their coins as they have been blacklisted by chainradar so don't feed the fuckers.

[Febo]

This weekend will happen probably 3rd biggest Monero yearly event after the Konferenco and the Monero village at Defcon. Monero at the 36C3: Chaos Communication Congress in Leipzig Germany.

Here you can find more links about the history of the event and about three days schedule:  https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/efuoxq/monero_at_the_36c3_chaos_communication_congress/





EDIT: When I look at schedule https://frab.riat.at/en/36C3/public/schedule  I am not sure if it is 3rd anymore.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

This weekend will happen probably 3rd biggest Monero yearly event after the Konferenco and the Monero village at Defcon. Monero at the 36C3: Chaos Communication Congress in Leipzig Germany.

Here you can find more links about the history of the event and about three days schedule:  https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/efuoxq/monero_at_the_36c3_chaos_communication_congress/





EDIT: When I look at schedule https://frab.riat.at/en/36C3/public/schedule  I am not sure if it is 3rd anymore.

What were the Konferenco attendance #s?

[jwinterm]

This weekend will happen probably 3rd biggest Monero yearly event after the Konferenco and the Monero village at Defcon. Monero at the 36C3: Chaos Communication Congress in Leipzig Germany.

Here you can find more links about the history of the event and about three days schedule:  https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/efuoxq/monero_at_the_36c3_chaos_communication_congress/





EDIT: When I look at schedule https://frab.riat.at/en/36C3/public/schedule  I am not sure if it is 3rd anymore.

What were the Konferenco attendance #s?

Maybe 100 at most I think.

[Patel]

We are exactly a year after last bottom at $38.  And since price is not that much above, that definitely tells us is good time to buy.

Yearly bottoms:  

2015 $0.22
2016 $0.43
2017 $10
2018 $38
2019 $42


Oh and yesterday daily emission went under 1500 XMR.

Romeros be getting scarce, it shouldn't be long before we see some movement.

*Shakes fist at chart

I just think there is a lot of uncertainty right now in the markets in general right now.  Everyone and their mother can see a recession is coming.

However this isn't entirely a bad thing.  Just keep steadily amassing monero when you have some extra government issued toilet paper to spare

I'm really curious about how Bitcoin or Monero would do during a recession. A part of me things it would do very well, especially because if people start seeing gains, the network effect will kick off a new bullrun. Especially when people are trying to get out of stocks and stuff.

I think Monero lost some market share because alot of people sold their XMR after January 2018. But if I had to take a guess, alot of the old OG's are probably keeping an eye on XMR.

[phishead]

I'm really curious about how Bitcoin or Monero would do during a recession. A part of me things it would do very well, especially because if people start seeing gains, the network effect will kick off a new bullrun. Especially when people are trying to get out of stocks and stuff.

I think Monero lost some market share because alot of people sold their XMR after January 2018. But if I had to take a guess, alot of the old OG's are probably keeping an eye on XMR.

I know only a few "OGs" who are as interested in Monero as I am*, but I think the word is spreading.  Idk if it's just me in an echo chamber on twitter, here, etc; but it seems to me a lot of other OG's who had been BTC maximalists before are starting to at least entertain the idea of Monero being a legit project to watch and the issue of fungibility a legit one.

However when it comes to dealing with a recession, I think it depends on the general population's reaction to it.  During the 2008 collapse, there were major discussions being had in main stream media, news outlets and such about 'Is capitalism dead?'.  People had a lot of distrust in the system after that, and I think if Bitcoin/Monero were around then, there might have been some panicky people with some extra funds that they wanted to store away in a speculative/risky asset such as Bitcoin or Monero.  But I think there is some threshold that has to be crossed first for people to want to put their hard earned dollars into a speculative asset such as these.  Income inequality has never been more drastic than it has right now.  An interesting question is will people be ready (or angry) enough to risk not being able to pay off bills and maintain their regular life in order to escape "the system"?  We've never seen the cryptocurrency market in a 2008-2009 kind of recession, would be very interesting to see


* - I consider people "OGs" if they were around the scene before 2015 (when I went down the crypto rabbit hole)

[Patel]

I know only a few "OGs" who are as interested in Monero as I am*, but I think the word is spreading.  Idk if it's just me in an echo chamber on twitter, here, etc; but it seems to me a lot of other OG's who had been BTC maximalists before are starting to at least entertain the idea of Monero being a legit project to watch and the issue of fungibility a legit one.


* - I consider people "OGs" if they were around the scene before 2015 (when I went down the crypto rabbit hole)

I think so too. When I meant OG, I meant people like BinaryFate, ArcticMine, Smooth, Fluffy, and many others in this thread. They might not be holding the same amount of XMR as they did in the past, but I bet that they are still keeping an eye on the project.

Monero is the only altcoin that maximalists don't label as a shitcoin. Rightfully so. Monero has a great reputation amongst the technical crowd.

If Bitcoin were to have a exodus, I bet Monero would be one of the only alternatives they would flock to.

However when it comes to dealing with a recession, I think it depends on the general population's reaction to it.  During the 2008 collapse, there were major discussions being had in main stream media, news outlets and such about 'Is capitalism dead?'.  People had a lot of distrust in the system after that, and I think if Bitcoin/Monero were around then, there might have been some panicky people with some extra funds that they wanted to store away in a speculative/risky asset such as Bitcoin or Monero.  But I think there is some threshold that has to be crossed first for people to want to put their hard earned dollars into a speculative asset such as these.  Income inequality has never been more drastic than it has right now.  An interesting question is will people be ready (or angry) enough to risk not being able to pay off bills and maintain their regular life in order to escape "the system"?  We've never seen the cryptocurrency market in a 2008-2009 kind of recession, would be very interesting to see

Maybe i'm trusting crypto too much. But I see Bitcoin as being pretty established. I mean, think of all the plumbing to the traditional financial system that has been created. Monero is definitely much more speculative, but Bitcoin? With all the infrastructure built the past 5 years, and the volumes, I think it's very attractive option for people who want to diversify some of their gains from stocks and stuff.

[phishead]

I know only a few "OGs" who are as interested in Monero as I am*, but I think the word is spreading.  Idk if it's just me in an echo chamber on twitter, here, etc; but it seems to me a lot of other OG's who had been BTC maximalists before are starting to at least entertain the idea of Monero being a legit project to watch and the issue of fungibility a legit one.


* - I consider people "OGs" if they were around the scene before 2015 (when I went down the crypto rabbit hole)

I think so too. When I meant OG, I meant people like BinaryFate, ArcticMine, Smooth, Fluffy, and many others in this thread. They might not be holding the same amount of XMR as they did in the past, but I bet that they are still keeping an eye on the project.

Monero is the only altcoin that maximalists don't label as a shitcoin. Rightfully so. Monero has a great reputation amongst the technical crowd.

If Bitcoin were to have a exodus, I bet Monero would be one of the only alternatives they would flock to.

However when it comes to dealing with a recession, I think it depends on the general population's reaction to it.  During the 2008 collapse, there were major discussions being had in main stream media, news outlets and such about 'Is capitalism dead?'.  People had a lot of distrust in the system after that, and I think if Bitcoin/Monero were around then, there might have been some panicky people with some extra funds that they wanted to store away in a speculative/risky asset such as Bitcoin or Monero.  But I think there is some threshold that has to be crossed first for people to want to put their hard earned dollars into a speculative asset such as these.  Income inequality has never been more drastic than it has right now.  An interesting question is will people be ready (or angry) enough to risk not being able to pay off bills and maintain their regular life in order to escape "the system"?  We've never seen the cryptocurrency market in a 2008-2009 kind of recession, would be very interesting to see

Maybe i'm trusting crypto too much. But I see Bitcoin as being pretty established. I mean, think of all the plumbing to the traditional financial system that has been created. Monero is definitely much more speculative, but Bitcoin? With all the infrastructure built the past 5 years, and the volumes, I think it's very attractive option for people who want to diversify some of their gains from stocks and stuff.

Well considering that these people are core developers, I would think they still have eyes on the project

Just rambling here, but what trips me up sometimes when thinking about these things is this:  Say if everyone realizes the fiat system is complete shit.  On top of that, what if everyone realizes that cryptocurrencies are the best way to move forward in the global economy.  And to make things a little less likely, what if Monero's code was deemed THE best cryptocurrency "rule book" to follow; not BTC, not ETH, not LTC, etc.

What prevents legislatures across the world to appeal to the masses about not just forking Monero's code, but to completely restart from scratch with a new genesis block?  One could argue that we (the people who have invested and owned cryptocurrencies in the past) had an unfair advantage in accumulating the majority of the coins in circulation as compared to the rest of the worlds population.

And I'm aware too of the typical counter arguments to that; but none that has me super convinced that something like this won't eventually happen.

Maybe i'm trusting crypto too much. But I see Bitcoin as being pretty established. I mean, think of all the plumbing to the traditional financial system that has been created. Monero is definitely much more speculative, but Bitcoin? With all the infrastructure built the past 5 years, and the volumes, I think it's very attractive option for people who want to diversify some of their gains from stocks and stuff.

I think the more money BTC is worth, the percentages of price swings won't scare investors as much since $500 dips or jumps will be drops in the bucket in comparison.  Will be interesting to see how exactly mass adoption will exactly happen.

[TheFuzzStone]

• XMR.RU-report (DECEMBER)

[scambust]

• XMR.RU-report (DECEMBER)

There seemed to be a lot of adoption going on in Russia and Ukraine for Monero. And I think it is apt for such countries with tight capital controls. A robust growth in crypto for these countries validates the use case for cryptocurrencies.

[Febo]

This weekend will happen probably 3rd biggest Monero yearly event after the Konferenco and the Monero village at Defcon. Monero at the 36C3: Chaos Communication Congress in Leipzig Germany.

Here you can find more links about the history of the event and about three days schedule:  https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/efuoxq/monero_at_the_36c3_chaos_communication_congress/

EDIT: When I look at schedule https://frab.riat.at/en/36C3/public/schedule  I am not sure if it is 3rd anymore.

What were the Konferenco attendance #s?

I more had in mind number of speakers. But as I saw last 3 days Monero is not the focus, but privacy. So maybe only 1/4 speakers talk about Monero directly. So I was right originally. This is 3rd most Monero knowledge full  annual conference.

I'm really curious about how Bitcoin or Monero would do during a recession. A part of me things it would do very well, especially because if people start seeing gains, the network effect will kick off a new bullrun. Especially when people are trying to get out of stocks and stuff.

They will both do good on long run. Most governments will try to bail out bankers again. but now with Bitcoin and Monero, there will be way more critical thinking. So it will not be so easy for them to do it as in 2008. And in some countries will not happen at all.  That time will be flourish of Monroe and Bitcoin. So not when financial crisis happen or soon after but when printing money and increasing public debt will start. A year of two after.

[pajak666]

is there any data of how big part of monero network cudo miner is? intuitively it feels like it should be a pretty big constant dump and price might be suffering out of it, no? i consider some substantial % of cudo miners to be interested in mining even above production costs.

[tokeweed]

I speculate PlusToken will try to wash their coins as they have been blacklisted by chainradar so don't feed the fuckers.

I think they should hide and lay low for a while (in XMR) before planning their next move.  It's prolly their safest bet imo.

[phishead]

I speculate PlusToken will try to wash their coins as they have been blacklisted by chainradar so don't feed the fuckers.

I think they should hide and lay low for a while (in XMR) before planning their next move.  It's prolly their safest bet imo.

Anyone can automate an alert system to constant track funds coming out of a wallet... “laying low” doesn’t really help them in this case and I’m glad scammers like these people aren’t smart enough to use Monero to be able to use their funds.

Only a matter of time when criminals wise up, whether that’s good or bad 

[equipoise]

I speculate we are (almost) at the bottom in both terms of xmr/btc and xmr/usd. It seems fat fingers want it down more and more, but I'm not sure it'll last for long.

[Hueristic]

I'm amazed the price is so suppressed for so long.

 
Both Monero as well as BTC, I blame the futures market fuckery and institutional fear mongering.

[Febo]

I'm amazed the price is so suppressed for so long.

 
Both Monero as well as BTC, I blame the futures market fuckery and institutional fear mongering.

I am sure rare expected Monero this low a year ago.  I just found this post of mine about Bitcoin. I was most of the year wrong, but at the end was quite close. Now thinking that at that time the price that I was expecting for Monero right now would be at least above $150. 2019 reduced mining emission was the main reason. With everything else that happened in 2018 &2019. From lower fees to general avareness that privacy matters. I guess all that will show up in 2020

[posi]

I speculate we are (almost) at the bottom in both terms of xmr/btc and xmr/usd. It seems fat fingers want it down more and more, but I'm not sure it'll last for long.

Base on the crypto market current stature with the inclusion of the XMR price graph momentum, i don't think the bear market will fade soon but what happen in the market during the early days of January will determine if the bear market will last.

[elrippos friend]

I'm amazed the price is so suppressed for so long.

 
Both Monero as well as BTC, I blame the futures market fuckery and institutional fear mongering.

I am sure rare expected Monero this low a year ago.  I just found this post of mine about Bitcoin. I was most of the year wrong, but at the end was quite close. Now thinking that at that time the price that I was expecting for Monero right now would be at least above $150. 2019 reduced mining emission was the main reason. With everything else that happened in 2018 &2019. From lower fees to general avareness that privacy matters. I guess all that will show up in 2020

My feeling tells me, that we will have the same slope as BTC in 2020, subsequently the growing hasrate is a very good indicator for this 

[phishead]

I'm amazed the price is so suppressed for so long.

 
Both Monero as well as BTC, I blame the futures market fuckery and institutional fear mongering.

I am sure rare expected Monero this low a year ago.  I just found this post of mine about Bitcoin. I was most of the year wrong, but at the end was quite close. Now thinking that at that time the price that I was expecting for Monero right now would be at least above $150. 2019 reduced mining emission was the main reason. With everything else that happened in 2018 &2019. From lower fees to general avareness that privacy matters. I guess all that will show up in 2020

My feeling tells me, that we will have the same slope as BTC in 2020, subsequently the growing hasrate is a very good indicator for this  

Not to mention all the cheap money that is being pumped out by central banks across the world... Just feel like something has got to give in terms of price trending upwards for xmr or btc.

Also for a quick laugh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2AvU2cfXRk

Edit: also for people interested in participating in an art contest for free xmr loaded (0.3 xmr in total) notes, here a link to the contests I have on twitter
https://twitter.com/spesmonerujo/status/1211467788654657536?s=20