[XMR] Monero Speculation

[cAPSLOCK]

There are two problems with this suggestion.

First, I agree from a marketing perspective Saylor is clever in his bitcoin promotion. I disagree that Saylor's approach is honest. In the hours and hours of interviews I've listened to, his marketing relies on telling half truths and misdirection to curry favor with the fiat maximalists. It would be the same for Monero with bitcoin maximalists. We would do well from a marketing perspective to adopt a similar approach with Bitcoiners, but it would rely on some degree of deception. I agree this is probably the optimal approach, but it will be difficult getting a decentralized community of enthusiasts to get onboard with this tactic. It works in Bitcoin because Saylor has such an out sized influence on the discourse. From what I can tell, Microstrategy has pivoted from business analytics to full time bitcoin marketing.

Second, have you engaged with bitcoin maximalists? Your avatar is from the WO circle jerk post, so I know the answer. I've tried to get friends and family interested in bitcoin. One look at bitcoin twitter and they universally recoil in horror. The gross bitcoin culture has been my biggest hurdle. Maybe you don't see it from the inside, but the levels religious cult like behaviour are off the charts including blind faith, heresy, and persecution of the infidels. The bitcoin inquisition is real. The pseudo macho personas are gross (shitcoins, carnivore diets, have fun staying poor, etc). Facts or logic have no impact on their beliefs. It's a big ask to suggest privacy enthusiasts try to engage in that pseudo religious cesspool.

It's a bit difficult not to feel offended by the above as you basically say I am in "insider" in the gross bitcoin maximalist cult because I have a Wall Observer hat.

I try to be a nuanced person.  I typically avoid extreme positions, unless I become convinced that such a position is the solid truth.  I am not a bitcoin maximallist (strictly speaking), nor am I a carnivore, although the keto diet was good to my waistline.  I tend to be put off quite a bit by petty tribalism.  And that is true both in the maximallist world you describe above, but I also find it sadly true when I see someone like yourself, willing to paint people with a broad brush just because of a forum avatar.

I also think the "maximallists" are right about a lot of things.  Shitcoins, for example. There are VERY few crypto projects that merit a chance with or against Bitcoin.  The top 10 is riddled with premined scams.

One of the types of scams is the one that paints itself as the  project that is against all the "greedy NGU bitcoinners".  This is exactly what I am warning against.  Monero does not need to use that doomed energy.  It is a worthy project, and one that will succeed, and has.

[barabeku]

There are few people who care about privacy what we see from Monero's low daily. There is a hype around NFT, meme coins and Defi-projects now, so their tokens are more likely to be successful now than any other types of tokens.
What is more, I don't think that it is nessasary for those who want to be private to use private coins as privacy is a feature that can be added to already existing currencies. You even can be anonymous using Bitcoin or ethereum by using Tornado cash.

[Keremgor]

 Best tech cant win sometimes is a wrong analogy to me. Best tech is the most scalable one. if Bitcoin couldnt be widely a seamless global ,would it be success?

i hardly see Monero can achieve more than this with bloated heavy chain than Bitcoin. You cant scale,you shrink. Thats the outcome.

[tokeweed]

Heya tifozi, long time... welcome back.  I have a feeling you may have shown up just in time for some fireworks.

You are right about the ETH angle.  In fact seems to me the whole bank/institutional money world seems to be aping in (yeah yeah) as a way to concede without conceding.  I think either out of sheer ignorance (ETH is more gizmos - therefore better) or possibly understanding (ETH is an asset we can control very similarly to how we have played the USD.  Better it than the pure thing).

You have any more thought on your exchange manipulation?  I feel like more than anything exchanges just don't want to touch Monero very much, i suppose due to the whole "drug money" stigma.  With Kraken being an interesting exception.

I do not think Monero can stay where it is for much much longer, and I think the privacy maxis entering the space are more important than most anything else in recent times.  Once folks like they understand how it works, and well, how WELL it works?  They are going to start dipping their toes in it.  The Monero Market cap (stupid metric, but still) is at LEAST an order of magnitude too small currently.  I would say it should dig well into that double digit billions realm to be fairly enough priced for it to make sense.

That means Monero in the 2k-6k realm.

With 8% of Bitcoin's transactions I think we could conceive of an 8% value to match.

Currently that is $5200.  But I think it will be more like 9k by the time we get there...  Still I would set 5k as a reasonable target because if things go well in the bitcoin space, that is a <5% chunk.  

Conservative.

Thanks cAPSLOCK Yah I believe the S2F is > $2000 this year. My guess is though that it may lag again unless there are macro events. The people who are getting in nowadays don't even understand crypto, so the path is harder outside of merchant adoption etc. Fireworks are also important though, just like we have seen it help BTC adoption.

This year?  I doubt it.  We have a month and a half to go and XMR hasn’t really showed it could do a 10x like most other alts do like it was nothing.  I mean I used to think (or hoped) it could, esp earlier this year.  But no.  I don’t think it will now.  I’d like to be wrong tho.  Lol.  

[cAPSLOCK]

Heya tifozi, long time... welcome back.  I have a feeling you may have shown up just in time for some fireworks.

You are right about the ETH angle.  In fact seems to me the whole bank/institutional money world seems to be aping in (yeah yeah) as a way to concede without conceding.  I think either out of sheer ignorance (ETH is more gizmos - therefore better) or possibly understanding (ETH is an asset we can control very similarly to how we have played the USD.  Better it than the pure thing).

You have any more thought on your exchange manipulation?  I feel like more than anything exchanges just don't want to touch Monero very much, i suppose due to the whole "drug money" stigma.  With Kraken being an interesting exception.

I do not think Monero can stay where it is for much much longer, and I think the privacy maxis entering the space are more important than most anything else in recent times.  Once folks like they understand how it works, and well, how WELL it works?  They are going to start dipping their toes in it.  The Monero Market cap (stupid metric, but still) is at LEAST an order of magnitude too small currently.  I would say it should dig well into that double digit billions realm to be fairly enough priced for it to make sense.

That means Monero in the 2k-6k realm.

With 8% of Bitcoin's transactions I think we could conceive of an 8% value to match.

Currently that is $5200.  But I think it will be more like 9k by the time we get there...  Still I would set 5k as a reasonable target because if things go well in the bitcoin space, that is a <5% chunk.  

Conservative.

Thanks cAPSLOCK Yah I believe the S2F is > $2000 this year. My guess is though that it may lag again unless there are macro events. The people who are getting in nowadays don't even understand crypto, so the path is harder outside of merchant adoption etc. Fireworks are also important though, just like we have seen it help BTC adoption.

This year?  I doubt it.  We have a month and a half to go and XMR hasn’t really showed it could do a 10x like most other alts do like it was nothing.  I mean I used to think (or hoped) it could, esp earlier this year.  But no.  I don’t think it will now.  I’d like to be wrong tho.  Lol.  

In alts the thing that drive multi-bag gains is hype.  Monero's general hype was over in ~2016-2017.  And now it's just a boring crypto project that does what it is supposed to EXTREMELY well.  As the person a couple posts up mentioned scaling will be an issue for it, like all blockchains.  

Eventually Monero's utility will do two things.  First, it will continue to be used, but it will also draw the fire of governments.

I think it has a floor much more solid than the VAST majority of alts because it is being used.  And it will continue to be used.

If I did not think Monero still has a significant rise waiting in the wings I would not be hanging around here (and also hold what I am holding).

Eventually, as the hoards begin to file into Bitcoin the privacy realization will be heating up in a LOT of people... and there are several privacy SHITcoin premined, affinity scam, founders rewards, traps.  And there is Monero.   The only fair privacy coin, really... that works, and has no trusted setup at least.  Not to mention the only currency of the ONLY dark market that did not get shut down by the FBI and didn't exit scam.

[Keremgor]

not only Monero ,Zcash ,firo ,Grin all are extremely lagging behind the market. They are all at same price level or below when 2019 Total mcap crypto was 100 billion around. Now it is 3 Trillion usd.

[tokeweed]

^ ^  I’m not sure I could totally agree with the ‘more solid floor’ argument if compared to BTC.  Compared to most of other alts, for sure it does.  And come to think of it, I’m starting to prefer XMR to find security througn obscurity.  The more it doesn’t have hype and the spotlight, the better for the coin and its users. 

[cAPSLOCK]

^ ^  I’m not sure I could totally agree with the ‘more solid floor’ argument if compared to BTC.  Compared to most of other alts, for sure it does.  And come to think of it, I’m starting to prefer XMR to find security througn obscurity.  The more it doesn’t have hype and the spotlight, the better for the coin and its users. 

I agree with all of that.  Also did not meant to imply XMR's floor would be stronger than Bitcoins.. I was most certainly thinking ALTs.  Though I often communicate unclearly.

But I am ragequitting Monero officially now (really just the "community") so stop drawing me back in, damnit.

[cAPSLOCK]

I have become very pised at what the monero"community" has become and am staging my rage quit.  But I want to post why here on my fav speculation thread.

I believe Monero is experiencing amazing adoption with even certain Bitcoin Maxi camps.  And the price is SERIOUSLY lagging behind.  That means I think it is primed to go up.  But this is what the community is looking like nowadays...

At least the newcomers to Monero seem to get it.  Ironic.

[Hueristic]

I don't follow twitter drama so can you explain what that shit means because i'm lost?

[cAPSLOCK]

I don't follow twitter drama so can you explain what that shit means because i'm lost?

Basically Tuman is complaining that the Bitcoin Maximalists who are beginning to embrace Monero are hurting it by not shitting all over bitcion because it is not really "peer to peer cash" (BCASH argument) and Monero is actually the anointed crypto that will eventually replace Bitcoin (actually ALSO BCASH argument).

The Maxis who are quietly beginning to embrace Monero call him a fool.

It's probably bad for my health, but this whole line has begun to irritate the shit out of me.  I disavow the Bitcoin bashing that is growing in popularity in the XMR camp.

But since that is making me just an outdated broken record, I am trying to just quit having anything to do with the "community".  But like any internet suicide I have ever seen I keep coming back like the walking dead.

[Hueristic]

I don't follow twitter drama so can you explain what that shit means because i'm lost?

Basically Tuman is complaining that the Bitcoin Maximalists who are beginning to embrace Monero are hurting it by not shitting all over bitcion because it is not really "peer to peer cash" (BCASH argument) and Monero is actually the anointed crypto that will eventually replace Bitcoin (actually ALSO BCASH argument).

The Maxis who are quietly beginning to embrace Monero call him a fool.

It's probably bad for my health, but this whole line has begun to irritate the shit out of me.  I disavow the Bitcoin bashing that is growing in popularity in the XMR camp.

But since that is making me just an outdated broken record, I am trying to just quit having anything to do with the "community".  But like any internet suicide I have ever seen I keep coming back like the walking dead.

Twitter is full of retards and that moron Truman came out of the reddit "moderated" crowd as far as I know.

Basically shitty platforms create shit spokesmen. <<== correct grammar? doesn't flow well

Its a morph of quality from here to there and you can clearly see it in the community and I blame the Devs for leaving here.

[cAPSLOCK]

I don't follow twitter drama so can you explain what that shit means because i'm lost?

Basically Tuman is complaining that the Bitcoin Maximalists who are beginning to embrace Monero are hurting it by not shitting all over bitcion because it is not really "peer to peer cash" (BCASH argument) and Monero is actually the anointed crypto that will eventually replace Bitcoin (actually ALSO BCASH argument).

The Maxis who are quietly beginning to embrace Monero call him a fool.

It's probably bad for my health, but this whole line has begun to irritate the shit out of me.  I disavow the Bitcoin bashing that is growing in popularity in the XMR camp.

But since that is making me just an outdated broken record, I am trying to just quit having anything to do with the "community".  But like any internet suicide I have ever seen I keep coming back like the walking dead.

Twitter is full of retards and that moron Truman came out of the reddit "moderated" crowd as far as I know.

Basically shitty platforms create shit spokesmen. <<== correct grammar? doesn't flow well

Its a morph of quality from here to there and you can clearly see it in the community and I blame the Devs for leaving here.

That's a pretty good assessment.

Franky the dev community has shifted into the anti-bitcoin camp pretty hard.  As much great work as hyc_symas has done (RandomX in partcular) he seems to be prety far into the "Bitcoin is for evil rightist libertarians, and Monero is the anointed crypto" camp.

(I know you are a member here too Howard.  Appreciate your work.  I am just frustrated with the Monero community right now.)

[tokeweed]

I don't follow twitter drama so can you explain what that shit means because i'm lost?

Basically Tuman is complaining that the Bitcoin Maximalists who are beginning to embrace Monero are hurting it by not shitting all over bitcion because it is not really "peer to peer cash" (BCASH argument) and Monero is actually the anointed crypto that will eventually replace Bitcoin (actually ALSO BCASH argument).

The Maxis who are quietly beginning to embrace Monero call him a fool.

It's probably bad for my health, but this whole line has begun to irritate the shit out of me.  I disavow the Bitcoin bashing that is growing in popularity in the XMR camp.

But since that is making me just an outdated broken record, I am trying to just quit having anything to do with the "community".  But like any internet suicide I have ever seen I keep coming back like the walking dead.

I’m not sure if anyone should be shitting on BTC just to prop up XMR but I’m one of those people who think that everything people thought what BTC is, is really what XMR actually is.  From anonymity, fungibility to privacy.  So if you find me shitting on BTC as a currency, it’s not deliberate and I don’t hate BTC.  It’s just the way it is.  I mean what can we do?  It’s technically all true.

[Febo]

OK in times of need now we have somewhere to go. https://xmr-psychologist.com/

I remember this guys posts from months ago on reddit asking how he can offer his clients payments with Monero. Psychiatric field is perfect usecase for Monero. Or most of medicine.

[smooth]

Franky the dev community has shifted into the anti-bitcoin camp pretty hard.  As much great work as hyc_symas has done (RandomX in partcular) he seems to be prety far into the "Bitcoin is for evil rightist libertarians, and Monero is the anointed crypto" camp.

Some people, I think hyc for example, decided to work on, invest in, or support Monero specifically after evaluating Bitcoin and finding it lacking. You can't blame them for having that view, even if you don't share it. It seems to be sincerely acquired, just a somewhat different path from people who were or are Bitcoiners and also found Monero interesting.

[cAPSLOCK]

I don't follow twitter drama so can you explain what that shit means because i'm lost?

Basically Tuman is complaining that the Bitcoin Maximalists who are beginning to embrace Monero are hurting it by not shitting all over bitcion because it is not really "peer to peer cash" (BCASH argument) and Monero is actually the anointed crypto that will eventually replace Bitcoin (actually ALSO BCASH argument).

The Maxis who are quietly beginning to embrace Monero call him a fool.

It's probably bad for my health, but this whole line has begun to irritate the shit out of me.  I disavow the Bitcoin bashing that is growing in popularity in the XMR camp.

But since that is making me just an outdated broken record, I am trying to just quit having anything to do with the "community".  But like any internet suicide I have ever seen I keep coming back like the walking dead.

I’m not sure if anyone should be shitting on BTC just to prop up XMR but I’m one of those people who think that everything people thought what BTC is, is really what XMR actually is.  From anonymity, fungibility to privacy.  So if you find me shitting on BTC as a currency, it’s not deliberate and I don’t hate BTC.  It’s just the way it is.  I mean what can we do?  It’s technically all true.

I have NO problem with this line of thought... it's true.  Monero IS what people thought Bitcoin was.  Except with a more difficult way to insure there is not hidden inflation, less ease of use, no layer 2 (yet), little hardware support and so on, and so on.

My point summed up is: do not try to outcompete Bitcoin. 

Just BE MONERO. 

That is enough.

Franky the dev community has shifted into the anti-bitcoin camp pretty hard.  As much great work as hyc_symas has done (RandomX in partcular) he seems to be prety far into the "Bitcoin is for evil rightist libertarians, and Monero is the anointed crypto" camp.

Some people, I think hyc for example, decided to work on, invest in, or support Monero specifically after evaluating Bitcoin and finding it lacking. You can't blame them for having that view, even if you don't share it. It seems to be sincerely acquired, just a somewhat different path from people who were or are Bitcoiners and also found Monero interesting.

I don't blame them for having that view at all.  That is either shifting the goal posts, or the result of my argument being badly presented.

I think majoring on "Bitcoin=Bad/Monero=Good" is a flawed position.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[smooth]

@cAPSLOCK

I was replying to this

Franky the dev community has shifted

For some people such as hyc, "Bitcoin=bad" is probably not a shift, they came to Monero with that view and at least in part because of that view.

We can obviously debate that view, or even try to convince them. That would be a different question. Let's understand that not everyone within the Monero community is or ever was "Bitcoin good, Monero better" or "Bitcoin and Monero both good". There are a variety of perspectives on the matter.

[otreza]

Right now, mining the coin is unprofitable, miners are waiting for the growth and will do everything to achieve it. Look at the profitability of mining now:

[cAPSLOCK]

@cAPSLOCK

I was replying to this

Franky the dev community has shifted

For some people such as hyc, "Bitcoin=bad" is probably not a shift, they came to Monero with that view and at least in part because of that view.

We can obviously debate that view, or even try to convince them. That would be a different question. Let's understand that not everyone within the Monero community is or ever was "Bitcoin good, Monero better" or "Bitcoin and Monero both good". There are a variety of perspectives on the matter.

It's a good distinction you are making.  I am talking about the dev community as a whole, having shifted in it's general demeanor, and I bought up a particularly important single member as an example.

You are talking about the views of the individuals that make up that group, and how they may have come in.  So in a way we are talking about exactly the same things and exactly not.

I can accept the views of individuals, and also observe that the general tenor is way more "What Bitcoin meant to be".  AND at the same time personally think that both Bitcoin and Monero have roles to fill.