ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[necro_nemesis]

It's possible there may be another paradigm shift that could see higher percentages of the network. My sense is in time the independant miner will not be able to compete due to higher operating costs resulting from equipment markup and logistical costs of the deployment of equipment. If that sector drops out due to competition what remains is a larger share to be acquired in time.

[klondike_bar]

But I envision 1 BTC per share when gen 3 comes out and dividends rise. Or at least 20% to 30% annual dividend yield per share. Which is better than 0.58 BTC/share and a 5% annual dividend yield.

If gen3 is indeed successful, I predict that the days of 30% annual dividend yield are over.
More investors will trust ASICMiner long term and accept lower returns. The current return of 5% anually is actually quite good! After all it's bitcoins we're talking about, not some legacy currency.
Dividends will probably be lower than last year, but we'll see about share prices.

5% dividends is very small for a high-risk company in a high-risk currency. 10-14% would be very fair dividends if the new chips are in fact coming soon, as would be a price rise past 1BTC

*keep in mind that if the price goes from 0.6BTC to 1.2BTC, what used to be a constant 10% dividend would be effectively a 5% dividend, since it is based on share value.

[freedomno1]

https://blockchain.info/address/1J5fvfUrDcZj8rrpVHMgn8u7sXee84QkPd

Neat
23001 shares tied to the pass throughs confirms havelocks escrow  
Adds AM1 + AM 100 == Perfect match

[aahzmundus]

https://blockchain.info/address/1J5fvfUrDcZj8rrpVHMgn8u7sXee84QkPd

Neat
23001 shares tied to the pass throughs confirms havelocks escrow  
Adds AM1 + AM 100 == Perfect match

Ugh you just reminded me I should probably do a full update or the share ownership spreadsheet... unless someone else wants to do that!

[dhenson]

Ugh you just reminded me I should probably do a full update or the share ownership spreadsheet... unless someone else wants to do that!

I was just working on this today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnxKtjWqWJGodC1fR3JDSFBpZ2tGbjBqdzJoeFlpOXc&usp=sharing

PM me your gmail address aahzmundus and I'll give you edit rights.

[freedomno1]

https://blockchain.info/address/1J5fvfUrDcZj8rrpVHMgn8u7sXee84QkPd

Neat
23001 shares tied to the pass throughs confirms havelocks escrow  
Adds AM1 + AM 100 == Perfect match

Ugh you just reminded me I should probably do a full update or the share ownership spreadsheet... unless someone else wants to do that!

Sorry for traumatizing you a bit az that is a scary list
That seen nice work Dhenson its been a while since the last list was changed
Also a good week to make a list since you can base it off of the havelock address and backtrack all the transactions for that address

[aahzmundus]

This is the old sheet started by myself and then managed by eltopo for a good time, if you care to merge the data all together.

I would love if someone kept this up to date, hell maybe even go back and fill in missing days.  That way we could track share movement and make sexy charts.  If someone did that, I know I would give them some tips.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Am3MH7b0EM3adHJWR1RBQUJtcGI2SGZvMC1SdG5Ca2c&usp=sharing

Edit: What initially led me to make this chart was to track if all shares were accounted for, to which I found the answer was no... some shares got "lost" after GLBSE.  One thing I notice from todays div is that far more shares are accounted for in todays div then have ever been in any data I ever took from a while back... are people claiming old lost shares?

[Lloydie]

Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months?  thanks.

[aahzmundus]

I imagine our hashrate will be low... far lower then the 10% target of old.  Once we see how fast raw chips fly off the shelves at a good profit, why do anything else?  If the rumors of the first batch being sold out are true... I am expecting big lump payments of dividends instead of waiting for months while boards burn electricity.  I see no reason to adopt a plan that makes us wait for our money while taking on additional risk.

[necro_nemesis]

What gen would have been dropped into Allied Controls immersion facility?

[shawshankinmate37927]

What gen would have been dropped into Allied Controls immersion facility?

Gen1 chips.  That's all that AM has produced up to now. Gen2 was skipped.

[Lloydie]

Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months?  thanks.

Ok modify the above query to: what percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?

[jimmothy]

Would anyone like to provide a guesstimate of AM's percentage of total market hashrate with gen3 chips @ 0.5w/ghs over the next 12 months?  thanks.

Ok modify the above query to: what percentage of total bitcoin hashrate will be using AM's chips within 12 months?

25-75%

Assuming chips meet estimated specs. Competition will not be able to compete with the price and efficiency.

As of now I think knc will be the biggest competitor. Bitfury and bitmain next gen are looking a bit lacking.

[aahzmundus]

Nearly every other ASIC manufacturer has a horrible track record.  KNC is mostly positive but they are branching out and offering wallet software and is now working with newspapers in Chicago.  Asicminer is lean, focused, and has a proven track record.  We are in for good times.

[Lloydie]

Has anyone done ROI calcs on chip selling at current price versus outright mining?

[jimmothy]

Has anyone done ROI calcs on chip selling at current price versus outright mining?

Yes, that person would be friedcat.

[Chris_Sabian]

KnC has taped-out their new chips:  https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78

I think there is going to be 30-40% increases in difficulty in the coming months.  The 3-4% increase right now a nice bonus before the storm.

[Lloydie]

KnC neptune at around 1.46 w/ghs. Quite far off.

[ning]

KnCMiner Power Consumption:

        0.7 / (1-30%) * (1-43%) = 0.57 J/GHash [1][2] (And this is at the lower end)

ASICMiner Power Consumption:

        0.2J/GHash low voltage, 0.35J/GHash rated voltage [3]

So, ASICMiner chips should have a huge edge over power consumption. However, we still don't know which company can manage to massively deliver their miners earlier.

[1] https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78
[2] http://www.coindesk.com/kncminer-pre-orders-next-asic/
[3] https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=438359.msg4816701#msg4816701

[chriswilmer]

I'm dying of suspense here.