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The global market is rebooting

On February 18, negotiations between the United States and Russia are scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia. These talks could pave the way for restoring economic relations and addressing global challenges.

“American companies lost over $300 billion by exiting the Russian market,” said Kirill Dmitriev, head of RFPI, on the eve of talks with the U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia. He emphasized the importance of economic dialogue, noting that the Russian market remains attractive to investors.

It is now known that several major American companies intend to return to Russia. Amid a potential thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, Visa (#Visa), Mastercard (#MasterCard), Apple (#Apple), PepsiCo (#PepsiCo) and McDonald's (#McDonald) have all announced their intentions in recent days.

The U.S. stock market remains resilient thanks to domestic growth drivers. Additionally, several key factors are expected to drive growth in the near future:

Federal reserve monetary policy: A possible rate cut or maintaining low interest rates is spurring investments. This, in turn, boosts company valuations and pushes up indices such as the Dow Jones (#DJI30) and S&P 500 (#SP500).
Technology sector: Ongoing advancements in AI, cloud services, and biotechnology are attracting capital. Moreover, integrating artificial intelligence into large businesses helps reduce costs by automating routine processes, while AI algorithms enhance strategic planning and risk management.
Corporate earnings growth: Increasing corporate profits are one of the key factors supporting the positive momentum in the stock market, including the S&P 500 (#SP500), which reflects the performance of the 500 largest U.S. companies. Strong quarterly reports from these companies play a crucial role in reinforcing investor confidence and ensuring market stability.
Geopolitical expectations: Tensions among major global players like the U.S., EU, and Russia could lead to sanctions, trade wars, and economic restrictions, which negatively impact the global economy and stock markets. A thaw in relations could reduce the likelihood of such conflicts and, consequently, lower the risks associated with sanctions and instability.

FreshForex analysts are confident that as geopolitical tensions ease, companies will start to return, which will undoubtedly drive up their stock prices. Don’t miss this chance – invest in stocks with us!

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

EURUSD:

U.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair.

Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war.

On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR).

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 20, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is holding strong following losses on the previous two consecutive days, trading at around 1.2590 during the Asian session on Thursday. However, the pair is under pressure due to concerns over tariffs from US President Donald Trump, which have led to increased demand for the US Dollar (USD).According to Bloomberg, Trump announced plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on foreign cars on Tuesday, as well as expected duty hikes on semiconductor chips and pharmaceutical products. The official announcement is expected to be made on 2 April.Market participants are now focusing on key US economic data, including weekly initial jobless claims, the central bank's leading economic index and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which will be released during the North American session.The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January, released on Wednesday, confirmed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged in January. The committee emphasised that further assessment of economic activity, labour market trends and inflation was required before any adjustments to rates could be considered, and that clear indications of falling inflation were necessary for any rate cuts to be implemented.Despite the release of better-than-expected annual inflation figures on Wednesday, the British pound (GBP) did not strengthen.

The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year, beating December's 2.5% rise and market expectations of 2.8%. This figure remains well above the Bank of England's (BoE) inflation target of 2%.Bank of England directors have previously recognised that inflation could rise in the short term due to higher energy prices and then gradually return to target. Earlier this week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that while inflation may rise temporarily, he does not expect it to be sustainable and still sees a gradual disinflationary trend.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2600, SL 1.2535, TP 1.2670

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 21, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

16:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted some sellers on Friday in response to comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, who said that a hike in long-term rates could put pressure on Japan's financial situation. This helped the USD/JPY pair make a modest rebound from the 149.30-149.25 area, the lowest level since December 3, reached during the Asian session. Nevertheless, a significant decline in the yen still seems elusive amid growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further.

The BoJ's hawkish expectations were confirmed by strong consumer price index (CPI) data and continue to support Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries should continue to support the lower-yielding JPY. In addition, the recent decline in the US Dollar (USD) amid concerns over the health of US consumers and despite bets on an extension of the rate pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed), could put pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Trading recommendation: BUY 150.30, SL 149.70, TP 151.30

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 24, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

The Euro-dollar pair is attracting buyers towards 1.0500 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The Euro is rising as the conservatives in Germany won the elections as expected. Traders are awaiting further German election results.

Exit polls showed that the opposition conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its ally Christian Social Union (CSU) won the most votes in Germany's federal election on Sunday. As a result, party leader Friedrich Merz became the next chancellor, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second. All eyes are now on how soon the conservative Christian Democrats can form a coalition government to offer much-needed reforms to the struggling economy.

According to ZDF exit polls, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc won 28.5% of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20% and Scholz's Social Democratic Party with 16.5%.

Weak economic data from the U.S. is dragging the dollar lower. Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that business activity in the US fell to a 17-month low in February. According to the latest data, the S&P Global Composite PMI for U.S. business activity fell to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in January. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 from 51.2 in the same reporting period. The Services PMI fell to 49.7 in February from 52.9 in January, indicating a loss of momentum in the services sector.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.0500, SL 1.0470, TP 1.0580

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 25, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - CB Consumer Confidence

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) declined for the second consecutive day, which together with a further recovery in the US dollar (USD) from more than two-month lows lifted the USD/JPY pair above the psychological 150.00 mark during Tuesday's Asian session. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last week that the central bank is ready to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise sharply. This triggered a corrective pullback in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and led to some selling in the yen. However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations may continue to serve as a tailwind for the yen.

Investors seem convinced that the BoJ will raise interest rates further amid signs of rising inflation in Japan. Rates were confirmed by Japan's service producer price index (PPI) released earlier today. This, along with strong Japanese consumer inflation data, supports the outlook for further BOJ policy tightening and should help limit deeper JPY losses. In addition, disappointing US PMI data on Friday, as well as concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's import tariffs, may deter USD bulls from aggressive bets and limit further USD/JPY strength.

Trade recommendation: SELL 150.50, SL 151.50, TP 149.00

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 26, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight rebound, allowing the cable to retrace to the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation and hold bid near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).US consumer sentiment declined in February, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth, with US President Donald Trump reiterating his intention to impose stiff import taxes on his citizens as a trade war threat against the US's closest trading partners.

Despite weakening consumer sentiment, driven mainly by concerns over President Trump's tariff packages, the cable markets remained positive on Tuesday.Despite a new round of attempts by President Trump to start a trade war, markets continue to believe that the US President will find a reason to put aside his own tariff threats at the 11th hour.

The data calendar for the US and UK has relatively few items scheduled for Wednesday, although the market is anticipating the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. Friday will conclude the week with the release of updated US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, a key indicator that investors hope will show that the recent rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not affected core inflation.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2650, SL 1.2600, TP 1.2730

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 27, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday, although it remains near the highest level since October 2024 reached earlier this week. Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week about a potential increase in regular bond purchases led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. In addition, concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and a positive tone on risks proved to be key factors undermining the yen exchange rate.

However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year amid rising inflation in Japan.

Nevertheless, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates. What's more, previously released U.S. consumer inflation data suggests that the Fed doesn't have much room to cut rates this year. This, in turn, pushed US Treasury bond yields up, widening the yield differential between the US and Japan and limiting the upside potential for the low-yielding Yen.

Trading recommendation: BUY 149.20, SL 148.80, TP 150.00

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Market Fundamental Analysis for February 28, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0390 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will take centre stage later on Friday.

Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, rather than April 2 as he had anticipated the day before. Trump also said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10 per cent duties. He also promised this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on shipments from the European Union. Tariff uncertainty from Trump is likely to weigh on the common currency in the near term.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects the US central bank's interest rate policy to be put on hold for now amid a search for evidence that inflationary pressures are easing and returning to the 2 per cent target. Meanwhile, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should keep interest rates on hold, which continues to put downward pressure on inflation. The Fed's cautious stance could boost the US Dollar and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0380, SL 1.0430, TP 1.0300

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 3, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, started the new week on a weak note and has already cancelled out most of Friday's gains to more than a one-week high.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, continues to post relative gains amid expectations of a less aggressive easing policy from the Bank of England (BoE). That said, concerns over US President Donald Trump's retaliatory tariffs and their impact on the UK economy may keep GBP bulls away from new bets. In addition, geopolitical risks could limit deeper USD losses and limit GBP/USD gains.

Meanwhile, signs that the disinflation process in the US has stalled, reinforcing the case for the Fed to take a wait-and-see approach to future interest rate cuts, could also serve as a tailwind for the USD. This could help to further contain GBP/USD and warrant some caution before positioning for a resumption of the recent uptrend from levels below 1.2100, or the yearly low reached on 13 January.

The main focus will be on the closely watched monthly US employment data on Friday. The widely-reported Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure will shape expectations on the path of the Fed rate cut and drive demand for the dollar in the near term.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2610, SL 1.2560, TP 1.2690

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 4, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

16:15 EET. JPY - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks

USDJPY:

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen (JPY) strengthened for the second consecutive day, reaching a multi-month high against the US dollar (USD) last week. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) hawkish policy outlook continues to support the JPY, while concerns over the economic consequences of US President Donald Trump's tariff policy have led to a decrease in investor appetite for risky assets and contributed to the yen's strength.

Trump's threats regarding Japan's currency depreciation, as well as the low dynamics of US dollar (USD) prices, are other factors exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. JPY bulls have not been affected by weak macroeconomic data from Japan, which showed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and a drop in corporate capital spending for the first time in three years. This suggests that the yen's value may continue to rise.

Trade recommendation: SELL 149.00, SL 149.80, TP 148.20

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 5, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

EURUSD:

EUR/USD pressed the gas pedal and rose 1.4% on Tuesday, climbing 140 pips in a single session as markets sold off the US dollar and bet that US President Donald Trump will find a reason to backtrack on his tariff threats. Key data for both Europe and the US is due out later this week, but trade war rhetoric will rule the roost in the middle of the week.

US President Donald Trump, staying true to form, is already laying the groundwork for a U-turn on his own tariff threats. At midnight Eastern Time, a package of stiff tariffs of 25% on imported goods from Canada and Mexico went into effect. However, despite a brief bout of risk aversion early in the U.S. session, currency markets quickly regained their footing and placed a big bet on another retraction or postponement of tariff policy from the Trump administration.

Economic data will be sparse in the European market mid-week as traders in the vols are wringing their hands in anticipation of two beats - the European Central Bank's (ECB) March rate meeting on Thursday, and the latest iteration of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday. This week's NFP data is likely to attract even more attention than usual as investors will begin to watch for any signs of economic weakness as consumers and businesses begin to crack under the weight of President Trump's global trade war threats.

The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter of a percent on Thursday, bringing the main discount rate to 2.65% from 2.9%, while the deposit rate is expected to fall by a similar amount to 2.5% from 2.75% as the ECB tries to get ahead of rising recession risks and support the EU's broad and diverse domestic economy.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.0610, SL 1.0570, TP 1.0680

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 6, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pairing pressed the accelerator pedal and produced another strong session on Wednesday, rising a further 0.85% and marking a third consecutive session of solid gains.

Despite warnings that the UK economy as a whole is weakening, markets rose following Wednesday's Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy hearing. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said inflation is expected to rise moderately despite weaker growth figures, prompting markets to adjust expectations of a rate cut before the end of 2025. Rates markets now expect less than 50bp of overall interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

ADP's employment change for February showed just 77k new jobs, well below the forecast of 140k and March's 186k. Despite this, ADP results have not consistently correlated with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) since the reporting change in 2022, so the low reading is of little significance.

There is little of note on the UK side of the economic data list this week, so the key data for traders remains US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), which will be released this Friday.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.2900, SL 1.2820, TP 1.3050

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses.

Trade recommendation: BUY 147.60, SL 147.00, TP 148.40

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[FreshForex]

SHOCK! Trump to host crypto summit at the White House!

On March 7, the White House will host its first-ever crypto summit, chaired by Donald Trump. The event will bring together top leaders of the crypto industry, including Coinbase (#Coinbase) CEO Brian Armstrong, MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy) founder Michael Saylor, and others. Key discussion topics will include crypto industry regulation, stablecoin oversight, the strategic role of Bitcoin in the U.S. economy, and the establishment of a national crypto reserve.

One of the summit’s highlights is the initiative to create a strategic U.S. crypto reserve, which will include Cardano (ADAUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), XRP (XRPUSD), as well as Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD).

This move aims to strengthen America’s position in the global digital economy and expand the dollar’s influence. Donald Trump emphasizes that the U.S. must lead in blockchain technology development, promoting the adoption of digital assets in the global financial system. Beyond regulation and reserves, the summit will also address cryptocurrency taxation and potential incentives for businesses operating in the sector.

Key growth drivers for the crypto market:

• Government support & regulation: High-level officials participating in the summit and the introduction of regulatory frameworks focused on transparency and security create a favorable environment for market growth. Clear regulations encourage institutional investors to enter the space.
• Establishment of a strategic crypto reserve: The U.S. aims to include top cryptocurrencies in its national assets, boosting their credibility and investor confidence. This could strengthen digital assets’ role in the global financial system.
• Blockchain technology advancements: The adoption of innovations such as smart contracts, decentralized finance (DeFi), and blockchain integration into traditional industries expands the use cases for cryptocurrencies and increases demand.
• Rising adoption among users & businesses: Simplified crypto transactions, improved infrastructure, and a growing number of businesses accepting crypto payments contribute to the rising popularity of digital assets among the public.

The White House Crypto Summit will be a landmark event for the industry, setting the stage for the crypto market’s future development. Analysts at FreshForex believe that government recognition, clear regulatory frameworks, and technological innovations will provide a solid foundation for the continued growth and strengthening of digital assets in the global economy.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 10, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair began the new week positively, trading at around 1.2940-1.2945 during the Asian session and matching the four-month high reached on Friday.The bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) supports the prospects of extending the momentum of last week's breakout above the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD against a basket of currencies, is approaching its lowest point since early November, a development that followed Friday's weak monthly US jobs data.The headline non-farm payrolls (NFP) data revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the consensus estimates. In addition, the previous month's data was revised downward to 125k and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.This comes amid fears that US President Donald Trump's policies will hit US economic activity, and suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates several more times this year. Current market predictions indicate approximately three 25bp rate cuts this year, a development that persists in exerting pressure on the pound and thereby supporting the GBP/USD pairing.The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he expressed that the US central bank has no intention of hastily reducing interest rates, did not provide any respite for those who advocate a strengthening of the dollar.

Conversely, the British pound is bolstered by the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual rate reduction approach compared to other major central banks, including the Fed.This dynamic is further fueling demand for the GBP/USD pair, underscoring a positive outlook.Absent significant market-moving economic data from the UK or the US, the US dollar is expected to exert influence on spot prices, enabling traders to capitalize on short-term opportunities.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.2890, SL 1.2950, TP 1.2780

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 11, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention to today:

16:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) hit a new multi-month high against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session despite downward revisions to Japan's Q4 GDP data, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plans for further rate hikes. The recent sharp narrowing of the yield differential between Japan and other countries has proven to be a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the yen. In addition, risk-off sentiment is further supporting the safe-haven yen.

At the same time, yen bulls seem unaffected by concerns that US President Donald Trump may impose new tariffs against Japan. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains near multi-month lows amid rising bets that a tariff-induced slowdown in US growth could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut borrowing costs several times this year. This, in turn, indicates that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the downside and supports the prospects for further losses.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.20, SL 147.70, TP 146.50

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Why did stocks and cryptocurrencies crash, and when can we expect a rebound?

At the beginning of March 2025, markets experienced a significant decline due to several key factors. One of the main reasons was increased economic uncertainty following the introduction of new U.S. trade tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada. As a result of the trade wars initiated by Trump, the world’s wealthiest individuals lost over $40 billion since the beginning of the year. From March 7 to March 10, 2025, shares of leading tech companies and the Nasdaq 100 index (#NQ100) suffered a sharp drop: Tesla’s stock (#Tesla) plunged by 15%, Apple’s shares (#Apple) declined by 4.9%, Nvidia’s stock (#NVIDIA) fell by 5.1%, and the #NQ100 index dropped by 4%.

In the digital asset market, the downturn accelerated after investors failed to see the expected government support for cryptocurrencies. Initial regulatory announcements, which initially sparked optimism, turned out to be vague, leading to disappointment and profit-taking. Finally, fears of a potential recession, fueled by statements from the U.S. president, further eroded investor confidence in both the stock and crypto markets. Collectively, these factors led to a broad market decline and heightened volatility. As a result, Bitcoin dropped nearly 15% between March 7 and March 10, 2025, reaching $77,500.

Despite the current challenges, several factors could contribute to market recovery and growth in 2025:

Advancements in technology and artificial intelligence: Companies specializing in AI and high-tech development continue to attract investments. Giants like Microsoft (#Microsoft) and Google (#Google) are expected to strengthen their positions by expanding AI applications in business and daily life.
Growth in the healthcare and biotechnology sectors: Pharmaceutical and biotech companies remain resilient to economic downturns due to sustained demand for healthcare and innovative treatments. Companies researching cancer and autoimmune disease treatments are expected to draw increasing investor attention.
Transition to green energy: Renewable energy companies are showing steady growth. Tesla (#Tesla) remains a key player, and 2025 is expected to see further expansion in solar, wind energy, and battery technology companies.
Macroeconomic policy stabilization: The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more predictable monetary policy, potentially reducing market volatility and boosting investor confidence. In 2024, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation, which pressured stock markets and limited access to cheap money. However, by 2025, inflation has begun to slow, which could lead to a more accommodative monetary policy and possible rate cuts.
Institutional investments in cryptocurrencies: A crucial factor is the integration of blockchain technology into the financial sector. Companies like Visa (#Visa) and Mastercard (#Mastercard) are expanding their support for crypto payments, while PayPal (#PayPal) is actively incorporating stablecoins into its ecosystem. This trend is driving broader adoption of digital assets and their practical use in the real economy.


Despite the current challenges, there are significant chances for recovery and growth in both stock and cryptocurrency markets. Analysts at FreshForex predict a market rebound in the second and third quarters of 2025 — don’t miss out!

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 12, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD reached the 1.0900 level, breaking a three-day winning streak. Renewed demand for the US dollar (USD) is undermining the major pair. Later on Wednesday, the US inflation data (Consumer Price Index) for February will take centre stage.

The US dollar is gaining momentum as US President Donald Trump's steel and aluminium tariffs take effect on Wednesday. The White House confirmed that new 25 per cent tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium will take effect on Wednesday, including against US allies and major suppliers Canada and Mexico.

In addition, rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates two more times by summer could send the local currency lower against the U.S. dollar. Traders have already fully priced in the possibility of two more rate cuts amid strong confidence that Eurozone inflation will steadily return to the 2% target this year.

On the other hand, a likely slowdown in the US economy and trade policy uncertainty could put pressure on the dollar.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0885, SL 1.0925, TP 1.0835

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 13, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is attempting to continue rising for the third consecutive day, trading near 1.2960 during the Asian session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair is rising as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds amid continued tariff uncertainty from US President Donald Trump and growing fears of a possible recession in the US.

The US Dollar could lose further ground as US inflation fell more than expected in February, fuelling speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates sooner than expected. Market participants are currently awaiting further economic cues, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly jobless claims, scheduled for release on Thursday.

US monthly core inflation slowed to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January, while core inflation eased to 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.3%. Year-on-year, core inflation fell to 2.8% from 3.0% and to 3.1% from 3.3%.

In the United Kingdom (UK), the latest RICS Housing Market Survey indicates a 11 per cent house price balance in February, marking the second consecutive decline. This figure was below market expectations of 20 per cent and down from January's 21 per cent.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed optimism that the UK will be able to avoid US tariffs on steel and aluminium, stressing a 'pragmatic approach' in negotiations while keeping all options open. In contrast to the European Union (EU), which has announced immediate retaliation to Trump's tariffs, the UK has reiterated its commitment to trade talks with the United States (US).

Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year UK gilts rose to 4.68 per cent, the highest level for two months, as expectations intensify that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period of time. Traders now expect the rate to be cut by just 52 basis points (bps) in 2025, cutting previous forecasts of more aggressive easing. Investors are now awaiting Friday's UK GDP data for January, which could provide further insight into the country's economic outlook.

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