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[FreshForex]

The rally is back: from ethereum to toncoin — the market is heating up

Recently, the pairs ETHUSD, TONUSD, LNKUSD, ADAUSD, and AAVUSD have been climbing amid improving market sentiment and inflows into ETFs — including spot ETFs (funds that buy the underlying asset itself rather than derivatives). Investors are reacting to ecosystem news and protocol upgrades that enhance the real utility of networks. As a result, the market has received fresh momentum: demand is expanding, and prices are following.

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Five Growth Factors:

• ETHUSD (Ethereum +15.3%) — Supported by inflows into spot ETFs and heightened developer activity around network upgrades, which strengthened buyer interest (spot ETFs are funds that directly hold ETH).
  
• TONUSD (Toncoin +9.7%) — User growth driven by Telegram mini-apps and attention campaigns like SERA (a gaming/social ecosystem event; SERA is the initiative’s name) is expanding the user base.
  
• LNKUSD (Chainlink +13.9%) — Adoption of CCIP (a cross-chain messaging and value transfer protocol) continues to grow, including through bridges (technology that transfers assets between networks) — on December 4, the Base–Solana bridge was announced (Base and Solana are blockchains; the bridge connects them).
  
• ADAUSD (Cardano +16.2%) — December saw the launch of Midnight/NIGHT (Midnight is a privacy-focused sidechain — a separate network alongside the main one; NIGHT is its token). This gave Cardano a real new feature: private transactions and business-ready smart contracts.
  
• AAVUSD (Aave +15.8%) — Progress toward protocol version v4 (the fourth major upgrade enhancing flexibility and reducing client risk): a public testnet and preparation for the mainnet are heating up expectations around functionality and token economics.
  

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If interest in Ethereum ETFs remains strong, Ethereum can maintain its momentum. Toncoin benefits from easy access through Telegram apps; Chainlink gains strength as more services adopt its cross-chain “translator,” enabling secure data and token transfers; Cardano benefits from having a dedicated private network for business use cases; and Aave grows on expectations surrounding its upcoming core protocol upgrade.

FreshForex analysts note that in the coming weeks, the performance of ETH, TON, LINK, ADA, and AAVE will depend on three factors: sustained inflows into Ethereum-backed ETFs, real user and use-case growth (TON via Telegram mini-apps; LINK as the “connector” between blockchains), the pace of technological rollouts (the Midnight private network in the Cardano ecosystem and Aave’s transition from testing to the full v4 release). Investors are advised to maintain strict risk management and monitor the macroeconomic calendar.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 11, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD — Initial Jobless Claims

USDJPY:

After the Fed meeting, yields on U.S. government bonds corrected lower, and the dollar lost part of its support — this rekindled interest in the yen. Another supportive factor for the Japanese currency is the Bank of Japan’s messaging: the regulator allows for steps toward normalization if sustained wage growth and inflation are confirmed, which limits room for further yen weakness. As a result, the pair is retreating from recent highs.

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The news flow continues to highlight a contrast between the U.S. and Japan: the Fed is already cutting rates, while the Bank of Japan is discussing conditions for moving away from ultra-loose settings. This narrows the yield differential and reduces the appeal of long dollar positions against the yen. With U.S. regulators maintaining a cautious tone and Japanese indicators stable, the pair remains vulnerable to further declines.

The choice of a short position is explained by the risk of continued re-pricing of the U.S. rate path and a gradual shift in expectations in Japan toward a more neutral policy. Risks to the idea include a sharp rise in U.S. government bond yields or sudden signals of export support in Japan; however, given the current backdrop, the probability of moderate yen strengthening remains elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 155.65, SL 155.85, TP 154.75

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 12, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

On December 12, the euro is holding near 1.1740 as the US dollar weakens broadly after the Federal Reserve cut rates and signaled that further steps will depend on incoming data. Markets are reacting to easing inflation pressure and signs of cooling in the US labor market, which reduces demand for the dollar as a higher-yield currency.

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On the eurozone side, sentiment is supported by the ECB’s messaging that inflation is moving closer to target and the economy remains relatively resilient, which lowers expectations of a rapid shift to much lower rates in Europe. Another factor is investors trimming dollar positions into the end of the week amid high uncertainty around the US rate path and the market’s sensitivity to every new macro release.

The key driver for the pair today will be the US data flow and comments from Fed officials: evidence of slower growth would add pressure on the dollar, while stronger figures could trigger temporary profit-taking in the euro. In the base case, the balance remains in favor of the single currency until clear arguments for a sustained dollar rebound appear.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1740, SL 1.1715, TP 1.1815

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 15, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3355–1.3360 and remains highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations in the UK and the US. The focus is on the upcoming Bank of England meeting: expectations of a rate cut add pressure to sterling as investors adjust the yield outlook for UK assets in advance.

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For the dollar, the signal is mixed: after the Fed’s rate cut, the market is pricing in a higher chance of a pause, while inflation remains central for policymakers. Delays in some US data reduce clarity for near-term benchmarks and increase caution, which often supports the dollar.

If the Bank of England confirms a move toward lower borrowing costs, the gap in rate expectations may turn against the pound and push the pair below current levels. Therefore, the base case for today is moderate GBP weakness versus the USD.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3360, SL 1.3390, TP 1.3270

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 19 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00

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Gold enters the week of December 15–19, 2025 near record highs, with prices holding around $4,327 per ounce. The main support comes from expectations of lower US rates following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, as well as the market’s sensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Demand is also reinforced by risk-off sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions and news about broader investor access to gold via funds in major markets.

For the week ahead, the key drivers are fresh US macro data and decisions from leading central banks. If US bond yields and the dollar keep easing, interest in gold is likely to remain strong. A restraining scenario would be the opposite: stronger US data that pushes the dollar and yields higher. In the base case, gold looks resilient, but headline-driven volatility may stay elevated.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00

#SP500: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040

US equities start the week with mixed sentiment: after sharp moves in some technology names, investors are becoming more selective, but the broader backdrop remains supportive. S&P 500 futures hover near 6,846, and the focus is on the rate path and the health of the US economy. The recent Fed rate cut helps expectations for lower financing costs and supports risk appetite.

This week’s spotlight is on a heavy central-bank calendar (including Japan, the UK, and the euro area) and key US releases (some statistics are published with delays), which can quickly shift positioning. A constructive scenario for the index is the absence of negative surprises on inflation and jobs alongside expectations of a more accommodative policy stance later on. Risks to the upside include a sudden deterioration in the external backdrop or renewed concerns about stretched valuations in parts of the market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040

#BRENT: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40

Brent opens the week around $61.44 per barrel. In the near term, prices are supported by supply-disruption risks — notably around Venezuela, sanctions constraints, and isolated attacks on oil infrastructure. Such headlines can trigger quick spikes higher even when demand is not particularly strong.

However, fundamentally, the week’s dominant theme is excess supply and rising inventories. A number of international assessments and US outlooks point to a risk of market surplus in 2026 and downside pressure on prices if current production levels persist. In practice, this means rallies may more often meet selling interest, and the market could react sharply to any signals of weaker demand or higher supply. As a result, the baseline bias for the week is mildly negative, with volatility likely to remain elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 16, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is hovering near 154.85, but the balance of factors is shifting in favor of a stronger yen. The market is pricing in a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and a continued gradual normalization of policy amid steady inflation and expectations of rising wages. The more convincing the central bank’s signals, the higher the probability of increased demand for the yen.

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In the US, traders are watching the delayed labor market release and updated inflation figures, which will shape how quickly the Fed can adjust borrowing costs in 2026. Until the data clarifies the outlook, the dollar remains sensitive to signs of slower growth and to shifts away from risk.

If the Bank of Japan confirms a rate hike, the yen may strengthen further, increasing downside pressure on USD/JPY. Another supportive factor for the yen is policymakers’ attention to the exchange rate, since a weaker yen accelerates imported price growth. The key risk to the decline scenario is unexpectedly strong US data that could push yields higher and quickly restore support for the dollar.

Trading recommendation: SELL 154.85, SL 155.15, TP 153.95

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Precious metals lead the way: silver, platinum, and palladium surge higher

On December 2, FreshForex analysts had already highlighted the high potential of the metals market — and the market quickly confirmed this scenario with a sharp rise in prices: silver (XAGUSD) +12.89%, platinum (XPTUSD) +9.03%, and palladium (XPDUSD) +8.75%. Our metals forecasts not only played out — this segment confidently outperformed many other asset classes. Investors are moving away from the dollar and government bonds into real assets amid expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Prices are also being fueled by news of supply deficits and rising industrial demand for these metals. Against this backdrop, interest in precious metals is growing among both retail and large institutional investors.

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Growth Drivers:

• Silver (XAGUSD) is rising due to a supply shortage: demand from the solar energy sector and electronics is increasing, while inventories are declining. For investors, silver is also a more affordable alternative to gold.
• Palladium (XPDUSD) is supported by limited supply and geopolitical risks: the market depends heavily on Russia and South Africa, while demand for palladium in automotive catalysts and electronics remains strong. As a result, even rumors of sanctions or export restrictions can sharply push prices higher.
• Platinum (XPTUSD) is gaining value amid mining disruptions in South Africa, which remains a key global supplier. At the same time, demand from industry and hydrogen-related projects keeps the market tight, meaning any news from the mining sector is quickly reflected in prices.

If a dovish Fed policy and a weak dollar persist, interest in precious metals as a “hedge against currency devaluation” is likely to remain high. Silver receives an additional boost from the “green” agenda — the development of solar energy and electric vehicles, where it is used in virtually every component.

Platinum and palladium continue to depend on a limited number of supplier countries, making any disruptions in mining or logistics powerful price triggers. In this environment, even minor news about production cuts or new restrictions can spark another wave of growth. As long as the market sees a supply deficit and no quick way to significantly increase output, the bullish scenario retains strong potential.

FreshForex analysts note that in the coming months, the performance of silver, platinum, and palladium will largely depend on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, the pace of the global “green” transition, and mining-related news from key regions — primarily South Africa and Russia. Investors are advised to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor the macroeconomic calendar.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 17, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1750: the US dollar remains vulnerable due to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The latest labor market data showed moderate job growth and rising unemployment, and disruptions in the work of some government agencies may have distorted certain indicators, so market participants are assessing the state of the US economy more cautiously.

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The focus shifts to fresh US inflation data and comments from Fed officials. Weaker figures would strengthen expectations of a rate cut and could weigh on the dollar, while faster inflation would restore demand for the US currency. Additional influence comes from moves in US Treasury yields and demand for safe-haven assets amid the geopolitical backdrop.

In the euro area, the key factor remains the European Central Bank’s stance: markets are watching whether the regulator confirms its intention to keep policy steady and how it assesses inflation and business activity. If the ECB signals there is no rush to cut rates, the euro will stay supported; however, volatility may rise noticeably ahead of US releases.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1750, SL 1.1730, TP 1.1840

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 18, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England base rate decision

15:30 EET. USD - Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3370 as markets await the Bank of England decision. The pound weakened after inflation slowed more than expected: the November reading eased to 3.2% from 3.6%, reinforcing expectations that rates could be cut. The key driver now is the BoE’s message on the next steps and how it weighs growth risks.

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The backdrop for sterling remains challenging due to sluggish economic momentum and signs of cooling in the labor market, while price pressures are gradually easing. If the central bank emphasizes supporting demand and leaves room for further easing, markets may price in a longer rate-cut cycle. That would increase the likelihood of capital favoring the US dollar.

In the US, the dollar is supported by cautious positioning ahead of data and the idea that US rates may remain relatively higher. Under this setup, the pair may retain downside potential if the Bank of England confirms a preference for stimulus and does not provide reasons to expect a quick return to tighter policy.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3370, SL 1.3415, TP 1.3235

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 19, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

08:30 EET. JPY - BOJ Press Conference

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 155.95 as attention stays focused on Japan’s policy outlook. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 0.75% and signaled that further moves are possible if inflation and wage growth remain firm. Even if part of the decision had been priced in, the higher policy rate is generally supportive for the yen.

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In the US, the dollar is weighed down by expectations of lower rates following the Fed’s December decision and the market response to inflation data. Slower year-on-year price growth reinforces the view that borrowing costs may be reduced further, while questions around data quality increase sensitivity to new releases and central bank communication.

Overall, the balance of factors favors gradual yen strengthening, so the base case is downside pressure on USD/JPY. Risks include a sudden rise in safe-haven demand for the dollar and softer Bank of Japan signals regarding the next hike.

Trading recommendation: SELL 155.95, SL 156.45, TP 154.45

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Energy market cools down: oil and gas under pressure

Over the past three months, global prices for oil (#BRENT/#WTI) and gas (#GAS) have declined noticeably. Benchmark oil grades Brent and WTI have lost around 11–12%, ending the year near multi-month lows. U.S. natural gas has also entered a correction after a strong rally at the start of the winter season.

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Factors Behind the Decline:

• #BRENT — U.S. production is at record levels, supplies from Brazil and other countries are rising, and some African oil remains unsold for extended periods. As a result, Brent struggles to stay above $60, with any price rebound quickly sold off.
  
• #WTI — Economic and fuel demand forecasts have weakened, while crude oil and fuel inventories continue to grow, making WTI more vulnerable to selling on pullbacks.
  
• #GAS — In autumn, gas prices surged on colder weather forecasts and record exports, but later forecasts turned milder, production stayed high, and inventories remained sufficient — leading to a price correction.
  

Brent and WTI are ending the year amid a clear supply surplus: record U.S. output and rising supplies from other regions prevent prices from holding above recent levels, while OPEC+ has not yet moved toward aggressive production cuts. This suggests that the risk of a gradual further decline in oil prices may persist into early next year.

The gas market follows the same logic: high production, well-filled storage facilities, and a relatively mild winter create room for prices to move lower after the recent rally. Altogether, this makes #BRENT, #WTI, and #GAS vulnerable to a continuation of the correction unless there is an unexpected surge in demand or a sharp supply disruption.

FreshForex analysts note that in the coming months, the price trajectory of oil (#Brent/#WTI) and natural gas (#GAS) will largely depend on whether the supply surplus persists, how the global economy develops, and whether expectations of a mild winter are confirmed. In such an environment, investors and traders are advised to maintain strict risk management and closely monitor news from the commodity markets.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 22, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1720 at the start of the week, but demand for the US dollar is partly returning due to reduced liquidity ahead of the holidays and expectations around delayed US data releases. The market is assessing whether the Federal Reserve will pause after recent rate cuts: several officials note that further decisions require confirmation from inflation and demand indicators.

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The euro is supported by the fact that the European Central Bank kept key rates unchanged and reaffirmed its medium-term inflation aim of around 2%. At the same time, the tone of recent communication suggests a more confident assessment of the euro area economy, which limits expectations for near-term easing and helps restrain pressure on the single currency.

However, the US remains the key driver in the coming days: strong growth and consumption data increase interest in dollar assets, while trade restrictions may keep inflation above target. If market expectations for the Fed shift toward a longer pause, the dollar could gain additional support and the pair may turn lower.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1715, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1625

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 26 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00

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Gold enters the week of December 15–19, 2025 near record highs, with prices holding around $4,327 per ounce. The main support comes from expectations of lower US rates following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, as well as the market’s sensitivity to any signs of slowing growth. Demand is also reinforced by risk-off sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions and news about broader investor access to gold via funds in major markets.

For the week ahead, the key drivers are fresh US macro data and decisions from leading central banks. If US bond yields and the dollar keep easing, interest in gold is likely to remain strong. A restraining scenario would be the opposite: stronger US data that pushes the dollar and yields higher. In the base case, gold looks resilient, but headline-driven volatility may stay elevated.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4327.20, SL 4300.00, TP 4420.00

#SP500: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040

US equities start the week with mixed sentiment: after sharp moves in some technology names, investors are becoming more selective, but the broader backdrop remains supportive. S&P 500 futures hover near 6,846, and the focus is on the rate path and the health of the US economy. The recent Fed rate cut helps expectations for lower financing costs and supports risk appetite.

This week’s spotlight is on a heavy central-bank calendar (including Japan, the UK, and the euro area) and key US releases (some statistics are published with delays), which can quickly shift positioning. A constructive scenario for the index is the absence of negative surprises on inflation and jobs alongside expectations of a more accommodative policy stance later on. Risks to the upside include a sudden deterioration in the external backdrop or renewed concerns about stretched valuations in parts of the market.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6846, SL 6780, TP 7040

#BRENT: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40

Brent opens the week around $61.44 per barrel. In the near term, prices are supported by supply-disruption risks — notably around Venezuela, sanctions constraints, and isolated attacks on oil infrastructure. Such headlines can trigger quick spikes higher even when demand is not particularly strong.

However, fundamentally, the week’s dominant theme is excess supply and rising inventories. A number of international assessments and US outlooks point to a risk of market surplus in 2026 and downside pressure on prices if current production levels persist. In practice, this means rallies may more often meet selling interest, and the market could react sharply to any signals of weaker demand or higher supply. As a result, the baseline bias for the week is mildly negative, with volatility likely to remain elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 61.44, SL 62.10, TP 59.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 23, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

15:30 EET. USD – Quarterly GDP Change

17:00 EET. USD – Consumer Confidence Index

GBPUSD:

On December 23, GBPUSD is holding near 1.3480, reflecting broad dollar weakness and the seasonal drop in liquidity ahead of the holidays. Investors are reassessing dollar positions amid expectations of lower U.S. rates in 2026 and are awaiting fresh growth data. This creates conditions in which the pound looks more resilient than usual.

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For the pound, the Bank of England’s policy is important: the rate has been cut to 3.75%, but the regulator emphasized that further steps will be cautious due to inflation remaining above target. This signal limits the decline in yields on UK assets and supports the exchange rate. At the same time, the UK economy is growing slowly, so the market will continue to react sensitively to any hints of weakening business activity and consumption.

The strengthening scenario for GBPUSD may be interrupted if U.S. data come in notably stronger than expected and bring demand for the dollar back. On the UK side, risks are tied to inflation and employment data: deterioration would reinforce expectations of faster rate cuts. For now, the balance of factors remains in favor of the pound, so the preference is for buying with strict risk control.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3480, SL 1.3460, TP 1.3560

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 24, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

On 24 December 2025, USD/JPY is holding near 155.80, but the balance is shifting toward the yen: the dollar is losing support due to expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026, while demand for safe assets is rising amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Low pre-holiday trading volumes are an additional factor, meaning the pair can move sharply even on modest news flow.

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From Japan’s side, the market is closely watching Bank of Japan signals after the rate increase to 0.75% and discussions in the minutes about the need to continue tightening if prices and wages keep rising steadily. At the same time, Japanese authorities have strengthened their messaging about readiness to respond to excessive FX swings, which limits speculative pressure and increases the probability of yen strengthening.

Today’s drivers remain rate expectations in the US and any comments from Japanese officials about the currency market. If demand for the yen holds and there are no fresh arguments for higher rates in the US, the base scenario is a moderate decline in the pair, so preference is given to selling USD/JPY.

Trading recommendation: SELL 155.80, SL 156.20, TP 154.60

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 26, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1790 amid a weaker US dollar toward year-end and thinner liquidity during the holiday week. The market is pricing in that in 2026 the Federal Reserve will have room for further rate cuts, so demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset looks restrained, while volatility is amplified by position rebalancing ahead of year-end.

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On the euro side, support comes from the European Central Bank’s stance: the policy rate has been left unchanged, and growth and inflation assessments in the euro area look more resilient than previously expected. With inflation close to target, it is easier for the regulator to maintain a pause, which reduces the likelihood of a rapid decline in borrowing costs in Europe and keeps the euro attractive versus the dollar.

Another factor is the broader demand for risk assets in global markets: in a calm environment, investors more often trim the dollar’s share in portfolios. With no fresh catalysts from the US, the base-case scenario remains that the euro retains the advantage through the end of the week, so preference is for buying from current levels.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1790, SL 1.1775, TP 1.1865

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 29, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - Change in the volume of pending home sales transactions

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is holding around 1.3500: the pound is supported by the fact that at its latest meeting the Bank of England indicated that rate cuts will proceed cautiously until inflationary pressure fully returns to target. For the market, this means that yields on UK assets may remain relatively attractive, and it is too early to expect sharp moves toward much cheaper money.

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On the dollar side, pressure is maintained by expectations of further easing in Fed policy in 2026; however, because it is year-end, liquidity is limited and reactions to news are often amplified. In the coming hours, attention shifts to the US agenda: market participants are awaiting the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting and fresh business activity indicators to refine the rate path.

Within the UK, today’s data calendar is relatively light, so the main driver remains the difference in rate expectations and overall risk appetite. If the Fed minutes show readiness to keep tight conditions for longer, the dollar may receive short-term support, which could temporarily limit the pair’s upside. Nevertheless, the underlying backdrop for the pound remains stable with proper risk control.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3505, SL 1.3485, TP 1.3585

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 02 January 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4475.00, SL 4465.00, TP 4550.00

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Gold starts the week near $4,470 per ounce: demand is supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2026 and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Investors are also watching the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting and fresh U.S. data.

If the minutes confirm the regulator’s readiness to ease policy as inflation slows, interest in safe-haven assets may strengthen. A key risk for prices is a sharp rise in government bond yields and a stronger dollar on upbeat data.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4475.00, SL 4465.00, TP 4550.00

#SP500: BUY 6930, SL 6910, TP 7080

The S&P 500 ends the year near record levels around 6,930 points, while the new week is expected to be quiet due to the holidays. The focus is on the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting and a set of U.S. housing and business-activity indicators.

A positive driver for the market is expectations of cheaper borrowing and solid corporate earnings forecasts for 2026. A restraining factor is the risk that the minutes signal Fed caution and trigger a reassessment of rate expectations.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6930, SL 6910, TP 7080

#BRENT: BUY 61.00, SL 60.70, TP 63.70

Brent crude is holding near $61 per barrel: the market is reacting to news around talks on Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, which increase the risk of supply disruptions. Prices are also supported by a seasonal pickup in demand at year-end.

At the same time, concerns about oversupply in 2026 remain, limiting the upside. This week, attention will be on U.S. oil inventory data and statements from major producers about production plans.

Trading recommendation: BUY 61.00, SL 60.70, TP 63.70

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 30, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - Publication of FOMC meeting minutes

USDJPY:

The pair remains highly sensitive to U.S. rate expectations ahead of the release of the Fed’s December meeting minutes. The market is trying to understand how confident the regulator is about inflation slowing and whether it is ready to continue cutting rates in 2026. With lower-than-usual year-end liquidity, even moderate headlines can significantly shift the balance of demand for the dollar.

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From Japan’s side, attention is focused on the path of monetary policy normalization. The Bank of Japan’s rate hike in December strengthened interest in the yen, but market participants doubt that further steps will be quick without sustained wage growth and stronger domestic demand. Investors also listen closely to officials’ comments about undesirable sharp moves in the exchange rate, which reduces willingness to take aggressive positions against the yen.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains important as well: during periods of higher risk, investors more often increase allocations to defensive assets, and the yen receives support. If the Fed minutes point to a more cautious stance on upcoming decisions and the dollar stays soft, pressure on USD/JPY could intensify over the next trading sessions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 156.00, SL 156.75, TP 153.75

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 31, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is ending the year around 1.1740–1.1750 amid thin holiday trading. The euro is holding firm after a strong 2025, but at current levels profit-taking and year-end portfolio rebalancing are becoming more noticeable, which supports short-term demand for the US dollar.

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The key driver today is US rate expectations. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed meaningful differences among policymakers after the rate cut to the 3.50–3.75% range, while updated projections point to a more cautious pace of further moves in 2026. This setup limits downside pressure on the dollar and makes the pair more sensitive to any signals on inflation and the labour market.

On the euro area side, the pair faces headwinds from a more restrained monetary-policy path: the ECB kept key rates unchanged on 18 December, and markets interpret this as a shift toward a pause as inflation gradually normalises. In low-liquidity conditions, even small changes in expectations for the rate differential can trigger a pullback in EUR/USD from recent levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1740, SL 1.1770, TP 1.1650

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