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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 4, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate is declining after rising during the previous session, trading at around 1.1650 during Thursday's Asian session.

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Eurozone retail sales are expected to rise 2.4% year-on-year in July, compared to previous growth of 3.1%. However, monthly sales are expected to decline 0.2% compared to previous growth of 0.3%.

Nevertheless, the EUR/USD pair may recover as the US dollar (USD) may struggle, as weaker-than-expected JOLTS job openings data for July increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. The number of job openings fell from 7.35 million to 7.18 million, the lowest level since September 2024 and below the forecast of 7.4 million.

However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari issued another warning on Wednesday, saying that tariffs are driving up consumer prices for goods, which in turn is pushing up inflation. Kashkari also warned that the US economy is increasingly leaning toward a “soft landing” scenario. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that high inflation remains the main risk for the Fed, but signs of a weakening labor market still point to a one-quarter-point rate cut this year.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1675, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1775

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[FreshForex]

This week’s main event: Non-Farm Payrolls – Friday at 15:30!

This Friday, September 5, 2025 at 15:30 EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This release could confirm whether hopes for a near-term Fed policy shift are justified — the very hopes that helped U.S. equities climb to historic highs in late August. Markets see this report as a checkpoint for both the ongoing rally and rate expectations.

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NFP and the markets: 3 possible scenarios

• Strong report: If job creation exceeds expectations, unemployment falls, and wages accelerate — markets may believe the Fed will stay cautious on cutting rates. Typically, this boosts the dollar and bond yields, while growth stocks and tech underperform. More traditional sectors like banking, industry, and energy tend to hold up better. Gold and crypto often dip under pressure from a stronger USD and rising yields.
• Weak report: If job gains disappoint, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows — this strengthens the case for a faster Fed pivot. In this case, the dollar usually softens, yields fall, and growth stocks, gold, and major crypto (BTC/ETH) gain on expectations of lower rates.
• Neutral report: If numbers align closely with forecasts and there’s no big surprise, markets may remain range-bound. Initial reactions fade quickly, and focus shifts to the details — such as wage data and revisions to past reports. Price action often becomes choppy and short-lived until the next key catalyst.

The September 5 NFP release is a crossroads moment before the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting. Volatility is almost guaranteed, and the market’s reaction will depend on the combination of headline jobs number, unemployment rate, wage growth, and revisions. According to FreshForex, this setup offers tactical trade setups across forex, metals, and crypto pairs.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 5, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD — Change in Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair slowed on Thursday, hovering near 1.3430 after volatile moves earlier in the week. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) always carry weight, but this Friday’s U.S. jobs debate has taken on even greater significance than usual.

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Markets are calling for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, and tunnel-vision traders are welcoming the deepening downturn in U.S. employment data.

Despite a short-term rise in inflation that effectively wiped out a year of progress in fighting price growth, investors hope that the worsening U.S. labor market will force the Fed to look past inflationary pressures and cut the policy rate by the end of the third quarter to support job creation in the economy.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3450, SL 1.3425, TP 1.3545

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 8, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened at the start of the new week in response to news that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will resign. This overshadows recent optimism related to the newly signed U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which will entail a reduction in trade tariffs on Japan and an upward revision of Japan's Q2 GDP growth figures.

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Furthermore, Friday's data on private spending, which came in higher than expected, could allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates in the coming months, though this has done little to impress yen bulls.

Beyond this, the risk-on sentiment, as evidenced by the generally positive mood in the stock markets, is seen as another factor undermining the yen's safe-haven status. On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) is recovering from its low since July 28, reached on Friday in response to the disappointing U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is providing additional support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the yen is holding above the monthly low reached against the US currency last week, which warrants some caution from bearish traders.

Trading recommendation: SELL 148.10, SL 148.25, TP 147.20

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Market Fundamental Analysis for September 9, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The euro maintains its upward momentum thanks to the weakening of the dollar amid a reassessment of the Fed's trajectory following weak US employment data and expectations of a rate cut in September. Additional pressure on the dollar is coming from a correction in Treasury yields and the growing likelihood of more dovish rhetoric from the regulator ahead of this week's US CPI/PPI release. In the Eurozone, political risks have not disappeared, but fiscal and corporate data do not signal a sharp deterioration in demand, allowing the euro to remain at the top of its recent range.

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Option positioning and market reports indicate increased interest in strikes above 1.17, while market participants continue to note that net dollar flows are weakening due to expectations of Fed easing. At the same time, weak retail sales statistics in a number of Eurozone countries are limiting growth rates, but do not negate the scenario of moderate euro strengthening against a soft dollar.

Risks to the scenario: an unexpected “hawkish” surprise in US CPI, a sharp reversal in real UST yields, and geopolitical headlines. Base case: continued demand for the euro amid neutral ECB rhetoric and the continuation of the global “regime” of lower premiums for dollar liquidity.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1775, SL 1.1745, TP 1.1825

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[FreshForex]

Gold Hits Record Highs: $3,600 per Ounce and Still Climbing!

On September 5, 2025, gold reached new record highs — $3,599.77 per ounce — thanks to unexpectedly weak U.S. labor market data. This data reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, which traditionally supports gold prices by reducing the yield of alternative assets.

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5 Reasons Why Gold Is the Main Asset of 2025:

• Expectation and implementation of Fed rate cuts: Weak U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations of a monetary policy easing, favorable for gold as it lowers alternative asset yields.
  
• U.S. dollar weakening: As the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD becomes more affordable for holders of other currencies, boosting demand and prices.
  
• Rising geopolitical and economic instability: Growing global uncertainty drives investors into safe-haven assets, with gold remaining the traditional hedge against risks.
  
• Central banks’ active gold purchases: Central banks are diversifying reserves, reducing dollar holdings, and allocating more into gold — creating a steady base demand.
  
• Increased demand from ETFs and institutional investors: Rising inflows into gold ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in gold, further strengthening price dynamics.

The main drivers of gold’s growth remain Fed rate cut expectations, dollar weakness, and active central bank gold purchases. The breakout above $3,600 per ounce has cemented gold’s status as the key safe-haven asset of 2025. According to FreshForex, the current trend creates favorable conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD while maintaining strict risk management.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 10, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair briefly reached a four-week high, testing a level above 1.3550, before falling back to its low.

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This week's economic calendar still does not contain any data on the UK, so investors remain focused on US inflation data, which continues to be revised downward after a shocking decline in US labor market data.

Markets are increasingly concerned that the US economy may be in crisis. The latest annual adjustment to non-farm payroll (NFP) data showed that between March 2024 and March 2025, the US economy created nearly 900,000 fewer jobs than previously expected. Data analysts should expect further downward revisions to job creation figures in 2025, as the current revision period does not take into account the impact of tariffs.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3505, SL 1.3545, TP 1.3445

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 11, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD - Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits

USDJPY:

The yen is weakening for a simple reason: rates are very low in Japan and much higher in the US. As long as the Bank of Japan isn’t ready to change course sharply, the rate gap stays wide, and it makes sense for the market to keep long dollar positions against the yen. In calm periods, these trades work best — and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now in the pair.

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Sometimes the Japanese authorities try to cool dollar gains with verbal warnings or one-off interventions. Usually the effect is short-lived if central bank policy doesn’t change. So even after brief pullbacks, the pair often resumes its rise.

All in all: given the current backdrop, USDJPY has every chance to reach 148.50 without new hard actions from Tokyo or a sharp drop in US yields. A buy with a careful stop below 147.20 looks justified for a tactical trend trade.

Trade idea: BUY 147.35, SL 147.15, TP 148.30

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 12, 2025 EURUSD

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

The euro remains above 1.17 thanks to the weakening of the dollar after a series of US data that reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut at its September 16-17 meeting. Moderate inflation dynamics in components important for PCE and a surge in unemployment benefit claims weakened the dollar index and reduced the yield premium in the US, which supports demand for the euro and other risk assets.

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An additional positive factor is the neutral-cautious signal from the ECB: the regulator kept rates unchanged and indicated a “balanced” view of the growth/inflation outlook. This reduces the likelihood of accelerated easing in the eurozone and, consequently, reduces pressure on the euro from the interest rate differential. At the same time, trade risks and tariff uncertainty remain in focus, but so far do not interfere with the moderate strengthening of the single currency.

Taking all factors into account, the baseline scenario for the current session is to buy EURUSD while controlling risks. Levels are set in multiples of 5 points: BUY entry at 1.1725, protective stop SL at 1.1695 in case of a reversal in dollar sentiment, target TP at 1.1785 — based on expectations of a soft Fed decision and continued ECB rhetoric.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1725, SL 1.1695, TP 1.1785

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 15, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD — Empire State Manufacturing Index

GBPUSD:

Sterling holds just above 1.3550, benefiting from a softer dollar after weaker-than-expected US producer prices and a downward jobs revision reinforced expectations of a Fed cut this week. That improves global risk appetite and trims the premium for dollar liquidity — a short-term tailwind for GBP.

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In parallel, the Bank of England is widely expected to keep rates unchanged; versus a likely US cut, that improves the yield differential in favor of the pound. Even with cautious MPC guidance, the absence of immediate easing in London reduces pressure on GBP and supports demand against the dollar.

In these conditions, our base case is a gentle GBP/USD recovery. We prefer longs from 1.3555 with a 1.3655 target. Key risks — if Jerome Powell signals a shorter-than-expected easing cycle, the dollar could strengthen; an additional risk would be weak UK data during the week. The stop at 1.3505 remains prudent protection.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3555, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3655

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[FreshForex]

Tech giants ignite the market: NVIDIA — $4.3T, Oracle +40%, Apple’s iPhone 17, Google in rally mode

As of September 2025, #NVIDIA’s market capitalization is estimated at about $4.313 trillion, making #NVIDIA the most valuable publicly traded company in the world by market cap.

Across big tech, the backdrop has turned decisively positive: #Oracle shares have surged 40% on accelerating cloud revenue and AI contracts; #Apple unveiled a new device lineup led by iPhone 17; and #Google continues to climb on progress in AI tools, ad tech, and cloud services. Together, these catalysts are lifting demand for AI infrastructure and ecosystem services, reinforcing network effects between hardware vendors, platforms, and developers.

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Key growth drivers for IT giants in 2025:

• #Oracle — faster cloud revenue, major AI contracts, and expanded data-center infrastructure sparked a sharp 40% jump in the stock.
• #Apple — the launch of iPhone 17 and an updated device lineup strengthens ecosystem cash flows, driving upgrade cycles and service monetization and supporting a positive re-rating of the shares.
• #Google — gains in advertising and cloud alongside the rollout of generative AI, improvements in search and commerce products, and cost optimization for inference.
• #NVIDIA — new chips and architectures (including Blackwell) cement leadership in AI compute, while data-center expansion and the MLOps stack support a robust order backlog.
• Institutional demand — inflows into AI-themed funds and ETFs, plus strategic partnerships by corporations and governments, are sustaining premium sector valuations and fueling a broadening cycle of spend on AI infrastructure, devices, and platform services.

According to FreshForex, a prolonged AI demand cycle and scaling potential create conditions for further share-price appreciation. The parallel surge in #Oracle, product updates from #Apple, and #Google’s rally keep the spotlight on the sector and bolster expectations for AI-driven earnings — from chips to devices and cloud — while #NVIDIA’s lead in next-gen architectures secures its role as a key beneficiary of the trend.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 16, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales

16:15 EET. USD - Industrial Production

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) continues its sideways consolidation against the broadly weaker US dollar (USD) during Tuesday's Asian session, as traders prefer to wait for this week's key central bank events. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce the results of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, followed by an important decision from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the likely timing and pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, coupled with the prevailing risk-on sentiment, is acting as a drag on the safe-haven JPY.

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However, any significant decline in the JPY still seems unlikely amid growing recognition that the Bank of Japan will stick to its policy normalization course. This contrasts sharply with growing bets on more aggressive easing by the Fed, which is keeping the US dollar close to its July 24 low and should help cap the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, fundamentals appear to favor yen bulls and suggest that the path of least resistance for the currency pair remains downward.

Trade recommendation: SELL 146.70, SL 147.90, TP 145.15

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 17, 2025 EURUSD

Events to pay attention today:

21:00 EET. USD – FOMC Decision on Key Interest Rate

EURUSD:

The euro is strengthening against the dollar amid expectations that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps today and signal a trajectory of further easing, which weakens USD support through yield differential and risk appetite channels.

The dollar fell to multi‑year lows against the euro ahead of the decision, reflecting repricing of the U.S. rate path and a likely widening divergence in expectations compared with the ECB, adding momentum to EURUSD’s upside.

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Demand for longer durations in U.S. Treasuries and the expectation of a flatter yield curve after Fed easing further reduce the dollar’s appeal as a high‑yield short‑term asset, which is fundamentally supportive for the euro.

The broader market backdrop also supports the pair: in commodities markets, participants expect that a Fed rate cut will spur demand, so investors are more willing to take risk, putting extra pressure on the dollar and helping the euro recover amid improving external trade conditions.

The ECB reference rate on 16.09 stood at 1.1807, and the recent sessions’ dynamics show dollar weakness ahead of the Fed meeting, increasing the probability of continued upside bias for the euro in the short term.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1855, SL 1.1835, TP 1.1950

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[FreshForex]

Gold Sets New Records: Rising Above $3,600 per Ounce

The $3,500 per ounce target we wrote about at the beginning of the month has long been surpassed. Gold continues to storm new highs and has already gained nearly 7% in value since the start of the month.

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According to our heatmap, a 0.68-lot trade opened at the beginning of the month could have earned up to $16,000!

What’s driving the market now:

•   Strong inflows into ETFs and “safe-haven” funds — institutional demand remains high.

•   Expectations of a Fed rate cut in the fall are boosting defensive assets.

•   A weaker dollar makes gold even more attractive for international investors.

•   Growing demand from central banks (especially in Asia) is intensifying supply shortages.

•   Geopolitical tensions are adding a “risk premium” to prices.

Analysts from FreshForex note that the market has already seen historical peaks of $3,700/oz, so the $3,750 zone remains a natural target if these drivers persist. In the medium term, UBS and ANZ have raised their forecasts: $3,800 by the end of 2025 (with potential toward ~$3,900–4,000 in 2026).

Don’t wait for a pullback — gold may continue rewriting the record books!

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 18, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

Sterling has corrected lower after a surge on the Fed headlines: the initial bullish impulse gave way to caution ahead of today’s Bank of England decision. The consensus expects the policy rate to be kept unchanged, and together with slowing inflation and weak real income growth this leaves only limited room for further short-term appreciation of the pound.

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The UK faces subdued activity and a mortgage burden that is sensitive to interest rates, so the regulator is keen to keep financial conditions stable. Markets have already partially priced a softer dollar; any more restrained BoE guidance on the path of future easing could trigger moderate profit-taking in long GBP/USD positions.

At the same time, the global backdrop after the Fed decision supported the dollar via firmer yields and softer risk appetite. Against this background, selling the pair from current levels with a tight stop-loss and a realistic target within the daily range looks tactically sound.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3625, SL 1.3675, TP 1.3575

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[FreshForex]

3 proven indicators to strengthen your analysis

Indicators are smart tools that analyze market data and display additional insights directly on the chart — including trends, support/resistance levels, price momentum, and overbought/oversold zones.

Unlike scripts that execute a one-time task, indicators constantly monitor price action and help traders make informed decisions. They don’t open or close trades automatically — their main job is analysis. The key advantage? Indicators eliminate emotional bias. They don’t guess — they calculate. Signals are generated based on precise formulas and algorithms, making your trading more systematic and disciplined.

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Here are 3 highly practical indicators available in MetaTrader 5:

1. Anchored VWAP Indicator

An advanced version of the classic VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) — this one lets you set an “anchor point” at key events like session open, important support/resistance levels, or major news.

Trading advantages:

• Dynamic support/resistance zones based on volume

• Fair value analysis after major events

• Great as a directional filter: above anchored VWAP = bullish bias; below = bearish

2. Trend Catcher with Alert MT5

Trend-focused indicator with clear visual cues and customizable alerts.

Trading advantages:

• Stay informed without staring at the charts — alerts notify you of potential trend shifts

• Adaptable to different strategies: tweak sensitivity for aggressive or conservative trading

• Helps avoid counter-trend entries — key for navigating volatile markets

3. LT Super Trend

A trend indicator designed to simplify the process of identifying market direction and potential reversals.

Trading advantages:

• Clear trend signals: up or down

• Reversal alerts you can use to enter or exit trades

• Simple and intuitive — ideal even for visual traders

All these indicators are 100% free for traders. Installation takes just a few clicks: Anchored VWAP, Trend Catcher with Alert MT5, and LT Super Trend.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 19, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) remains in a disadvantageous position after data released on Friday during the Asian session showed that core consumer prices in Japan rose at their slowest pace in nine months in August. This compounds domestic political uncertainty and gives the Bank of Japan (BoJ) additional reasons to delay raising interest rates. In addition, another factor undermining the Japanese yen's position as a safe-haven currency is the general optimism in the stock markets.

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However, yen bears seem reluctant to make aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the results of the Bank of Japan's two-day monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is seeking to strengthen its position after a sharp recovery from its lowest level since February 2022 following the FOMC meeting, acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, which reached a one-and-a-half-week high on Thursday. However, bets that the BoJ will stick to its policy normalization course and the prospect of further Fed rate cuts could limit the major currency's gains.

Trade recommendation: BUY 148.15, SL 147.65, TP 149.35

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 22, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD continues its series of declines for the fourth consecutive session, trading around 1.1730 during Asian hours on Monday.

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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that growing signs of weakness in the labor market explain why officials decided it was time to cut rates after keeping them unchanged since December amid concerns about inflation caused by tariffs. The Fed's rate forecast, or so-called “dot plot,” showed that two more rate cuts are expected this year.

The EUR/USD pair also faced difficulties due to problems with the euro (EUR): last week, hundreds of thousands of people protested in major French cities, calling on President Emmanuel Macron and newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecomte to abandon the spending cuts introduced by former Prime Minister François Bayrou.

European Central Bank Governing Council member (ECB) Mario Centeno said on Friday that “the next step is likely to still be a rate cut,” adding that inflation cannot remain below 2% for too long and noting that risks to inflation remain tilted to the downside.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1705, SL 1.1735, TP 1.1655

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 23, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention today:

19:35 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speech

GBPUSD:

The British pound remains elevated mainly due to softer Fed expectations and general dollar weakening, not due to accelerating UK growth drivers, making it vulnerable to USD demand return on positive US statistics. Flows show that with rising US yields or CPI/PPI inflation spikes, interest in the dollar quickly increases, causing GBPUSD pullbacks from local highs. On this background, Bank of England's cautious stance and mixed UK economic dynamics increase correction chances if the dollar strengthens via global yield channels and risk appetite.

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International news feeds note pound stability vs. euro and subdued EURUSD movements before key ECB decisions and US releases, indirectly confirming GBPUSD's dependence on US macro and Fed expectations. Without new hawkish signals from London or sharp UK inflation shifts, the US factor remains the dominant trigger for short-term pound/dollar dynamics. Tactical selling near 1.35 is based on likely risk premium normalization and repricing expectations favoring the dollar amid positive US inflation and employment releases.

Current cross rates via EUR and feed levels confirm GBPUSD near 1.35 in today’s session, aligning entry around 1.3510 with the fundamental "US sensitivity" picture. The risk is limited by a tight stop as dollar strength on data and yields often occurs under neutral European regulator decisions. The target near 1.3450 reflects moderate correction without trend reversal assumptions absent shock news from London.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3510, SL 1.3530, TP 1.3410.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for September 24, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

17:00 EET. USD - New Home Sales

USDJPY:

The pair has retreated from recent highs after comments by the Fed Chair and more even U.S. business indicators reduced the impulse for further dollar strength. Expectations of a gradual shift toward easier Fed policy limit the rise in U.S. yields—the key driver of USD/JPY—and open room for a downward correction in the pair.

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From Japan, the Bank of Japan kept the short-term rate around 0.50% at its September meeting, with the board debating the possibility of further tightening and announcing steps to wind down parts of non-market support (ETF/REIT programs). For markets, this signals that Japan’s normalization course will continue, albeit very cautiously. Combined with fluctuations in risk appetite, this supports the yen’s role as a haven over the near term.

Risks to short positions include a jump in U.S. yields on unexpectedly strong data and any signs of delayed normalization in Japan. Even so, given the current information flow and expectations balance, the base case is trading below 148.00 with attempts to test the 147.00–147.10 area.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.85, SL 148.35, TP 146.95

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