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Market Fundamental Analysis for November 21, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

16:45 EET. USD – Composite PMI

USDJPY:

The yen is weakening due to the Bank of Japan’s persistently dovish stance and expectations of economic support through fiscal measures. Officials reiterate the need to maintain accommodative conditions, and discussions of a support package fuel risk appetite and pressure on the yen. As long as Japanese yields remain low, the rate differential with the US persists, keeping yen funding cheap and supporting USD/JPY buying. The market is mindful of intervention risks, but without a policy shift their impact is limited.

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In the US, the latest labour market reports showed strong job creation alongside only moderate unemployment, keeping the economy on a steady trajectory. The dollar index has consolidated above 100, confirming demand for the currency as a safe-haven asset. Treasury yields remain elevated, and the rate gap with Japan encourages capital flows into dollar assets, supporting the upward trend in USD/JPY. Unresolved budget questions sustain caution and demand for the dollar.

Given the combination of a dovish BoJ and resilient US data, the base scenario continues to favour further upside in the pair. We look for buying from 157.25 with tight risk control. Potential trend changes are possible if there are signs of accelerating inflation in Japan or clear signals that the central bank is ready to allow yields to rise. In the short term, comments from ministers and assessments of the support package will be important; abrupt Ministry of Finance interventions remain the key risk.

Trade recommendation: BUY 157.25, SL 156.75, TP 158.25

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Market Fundamental Analysis for November 24, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The euro holds near 1.15 as the dollar stabilizes and the probability of Federal Reserve easing in winter rises. The market is digesting mixed signals from US employment and the upcoming business-activity releases, which supports interest in the dollar’s peers amid moderate expectations for US rates.

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On the European side, the key drivers remain signs of slowing inflation in the euro area and the regulator’s willingness to keep borrowing costs without abrupt moves. This reduces the risk of tighter financial conditions for the real economy and supports demand for the euro around current levels.

The trading idea relies on a balance of risks that favors gradual dollar softening alongside neutral messaging from the ECB: buy from 1.1515 with protection at 1.1485, aiming for a renewal of local highs as moderate US data arrive and interest-rate expectations stabilize.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1515, SL 1.1485, TP 1.1605

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 28 November 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4050.00, SL 4000.00, TP 4200.00


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Gold starts the week at elevated levels: morning reports place spot near 4,054.19 per ounce. Investors keep hedging against political and geo-economic risks, while temporary gaps in US official data releases make it harder for the Fed to rely on the usual inputs, which supports demand for safe assets. Into the December meeting, markets see a meaningful probability of a rate cut, easing dollar financial conditions and backing the metal. Additional drivers include steady inflows into gold funds and continued central-bank buying through the autumn.

The weekly balance looks constructive: swings in US Treasury yields remain contained, while official purchases and investment inflows provide a demand cushion. Risks to the bullish case include a stronger dollar alongside rising real yields and more restrictive remarks from some Fed officials, which could delay policy easing. Even so, the combination of scarce safe-haven alternatives and ongoing investment demand argues for support on pullbacks.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4050.00, SL 4000.00, TP 4200.00

#SP500: BUY 6600, SL 6500, TP 6900

Last week ended with a pullback in the major US indices, but the new week begins on a calmer footing: S&P 500 futures are firmer in early trade, and the debate around the December Fed decision is tilting toward some easing. In aggregate, that reduces borrowing-cost pressure and underpins expectations for future earnings. Through November, strong corporate results helped: realized S&P 500 earnings growth clearly outpaced estimates from the start of the quarter, softening the drag from lofty valuations.

Over the week ahead the setup is mixed but mildly positive: the prospect of easier Fed policy, 10-year yields stabilizing near 4%, and softer oil prices improve cost and margin expectations for several sectors. Headwinds include elevated volatility among tech leaders and uncertainty about the timing of subsequent policy steps. In this backdrop, a modest upside for the benchmark looks like the base case unless inflation risks re-accelerate unexpectedly.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6600, SL 6500, TP 6900

#BRENT: SELL 62.50, SL 65.00, TP 55.00

Oil opened the week under pressure: morning reports show Brent around 62.46 per barrel. The market is digesting headlines that trim the geopolitical premium and imply a possible gradual expansion of supply over the medium term. At the same time, US commercial inventories continue to trend higher, and recent projections point to stock builds in Q4, which also weighs on prices.

On the supply side, OPEC+ decisions for year-end and the working configuration for early next year do not remove oversupply concerns: growth from producers outside the alliance together with the recovery in certain exports continues to pressure the futures curve. A firmer dollar also caps prices by raising the cost of imported crude for consumers. Net-net, the base case for the week is a continuation of the downward drift, with occasional bounces on sanction or disruption headlines.

Trading recommendation: SELL 62.50, SL 65.00, TP 55.00

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Market Fundamental Analysis for November 25, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

GBPUSD:

Sterling is hovering near 1.31, with attention shifting to tomorrow’s autumn budget. A potential rise in borrowing to meet targets could lift gilt yields and intensify doubts about debt sustainability, which traditionally weighs on the currency and raises the risk premium.

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Inflation is slowing, and the Bank of England has already moved to cautious rate reductions. This trims sterling’s interest-rate advantage and increases sensitivity to swings in global risk appetite. Weak consumer dynamics further cap the domestic impulse and import demand for GBP.

From the U.S. side, the pair’s path is shaped by Fed expectations and Treasury yields; even with soft data, support for the pound looks limited. If budget parameters rekindle doubts about debt sustainability, GBPUSD risks resuming its decline and revisiting recent lows. Today, the balance of factors favors selling on approaches to local highs.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.3100, SL 1.3130, TP 1.3010

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Tech giants and a major crypto exchange under pressure: what triggered the market crash?

Recently, the stocks of Advanced Micro Devices (#AMD), Coinbase Global Inc. (#Coinbase), Oracle Corp. (#Oracle), NVIDIA Corp. (#NVIDIA), and Arm Holdings plc (#Arm) have come under pressure amid a reassessment of artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and growing caution toward risk assets. Investors are reacting nervously to the cost of capital, the pace of AI monetization, and the resilience of demand within adjacent ecosystems.

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5 Factors Behind the Decline:

• #AMD (−10.33%) — profit-taking after a strong rally and growing doubts about the scalability of server GPUs. Additional pressure comes from margin risks driven by aggressive capital spending and competition in high-performance GPU accelerators.
  
• #Coinbase (−10.31%) — a weakening crypto market reduces trading volumes and fee revenue. Regulatory risks and volatile client flows deepen the valuation discounts.
  
• #Oracle (−10.29%) — concerns over rising debt levels amid heavy investments in cloud and AI infrastructure. The market fears shrinking free cash flow and pressure on valuation multiples if growth slows.
  
• #NVIDIA (−4.08%) — “overvaluation + maxed-out expectations”: even strong earnings reports fail to calm concerns about cyclical demand in data centers. Added to this are risks of margin normalization and potential inventory build-ups among customers.
  
• #Arm (−3.02%) — high sensitivity to sell-offs in the “AI sector,” especially given its premium valuation. Investors question how quickly the royalty-based model can translate into stable accelerated growth.
  

If concerns about AI-related spending and uncertainty around interest rates persist, stocks inflated by AI and crypto market expectations may continue to fall. Further capital outflows or rising borrowing costs would serve as triggers for additional downside.

FreshForex analysts see potential for a correction in #AMD, #NVIDIA, #Arm, #Oracle, and #Coinbase due to slowing AI infrastructure growth and persistently high capital costs. For #Coinbase, elevated crypto market volatility is an additional pressure factor. The current market situation creates conditions for developing scenarios for asset price declines.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for November 26, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Initial Jobless Claims

USDJPY:

The yen is strengthening on Wednesday, 26 November 2025, following reports that the Bank of Japan is prepared to consider a rate hike as early as December and amid discussions of measures aimed at containing inflation risks. The narrowing of rate‑expectations differentials with the US is reducing the appeal of long USD/JPY positions, while the possibility of official comments on the FX market during a low‑liquidity period is deterring participants from increasing USD/JPY longs.

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Additional pressure on the dollar comes from the increased likelihood of Fed easing in December and from soft US data in recent days. Lower US yields and a correction in global risk appetite are reducing the carry premium, which is traditionally negative for the pair.

Key opposing risks are unexpectedly strong US figures or a postponement of expectations for a rate hike in Japan. However, given the current news balance, the base case is for a gradual decline in USD/JPY, making shorts from 155.80 towards 154.90 justified under moderate risk limits.

Trading idea: SELL 155.80, SL 156.10, TP 154.90

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Market Fundamental Analysis for November 27, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The euro finds support as the U.S. dollar softens ahead of the long holiday weekend in the United States and markets keep pricing a gradual easing path for monetary conditions there. Softer U.S. Treasury yields and a pause in major data releases increase interest in major currencies with steadier inflation dynamics. An additional tailwind comes from signs of improving global trade relations, which reduce demand for dollar safe-haven flows and partly redirect capital back to Europe.

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Comments from some European Central Bank officials suggest readiness to act with flexibility, while euro area data on prices and employment point to disinflation without clear signs of a sharp economic cooling. Against this backdrop, investors see a milder U.S. rate path than in the euro area into early 2026, narrowing the rate advantage that previously supported the dollar.

The pair remains sensitive to headlines around the UK budget and the tone of U.S. stock markets: stronger risk appetite typically helps the euro via a softer dollar index. Thin liquidity around Thanksgiving can amplify moves on official remarks and month-end rebalancing flows, increasing the chance of follow-through if newsflow remains neutral to slightly euro-positive.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1605, SL 1.1575, TP 1.1695

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Market Fundamental Analysis for November 28, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

Sterling is holding just above 1.31, but momentum has faded: after the budget releases, the debate over the medium-term sustainability of the UK’s public finances and weak productivity remains central. The Bank of England’s messaging allows for a prolonged hold at current rates amid cooling domestic demand, which limits the currency’s room to strengthen. Fresh assessments point to a fragile labor market and pressure on real household incomes.

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The external backdrop is also unfriendly to a sustained GBP rise: with uncertainty around the Fed path persisting, the dollar is supported by quality flows, while the yield differential remains unfavorable for the UK currency. In addition, risk sentiment is choppy on global headlines and noise, which traditionally boosts demand for USD during risk-off episodes.

Given the mix of domestic and external factors, the pair is vulnerable to a downside correction: if risk appetite softens and BoE expectations are repriced, a return toward 1.30 looks likely. A tactical sell from 1.3145 with a stop at 1.3195 and a target at 1.2995 is preferred—these parameters reflect current volatility and allow the scenario of renewed dollar demand on adverse news to play out.

Trade idea: SELL 1.3145, SL 1.3195, TP 1.2995

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 1, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

EURUSD:

The euro holds near 1.16 on a mix of a softer dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve easing in December: recent remarks from U.S. officials increased the probability of a rate cut and pressed Treasury yields lower, reducing the dollar’s appeal as a defensive asset. At the same time, the euro area shows stabilization in business activity and signs of resilient domestic demand, which limits downside risks for the region’s economy.

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Support for the euro is reinforced by softer U.S. releases (slowing in some spending and orders indicators) and lower funding costs, while the ECB is seen taking a very cautious path without hurried moves. Against this backdrop, a pickup in risk appetite and the gradual recovery in eurozone trade and services help sustain demand for the common currency.

Key risks stem from upcoming U.S. labor data and subsequent Fed commentary; however, with the current balance of drivers, the short-term impulse favors the euro.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1600, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1690

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 05 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4050.00, SL 4000.00, TP 4200.00

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Gold enters the week at elevated levels, with demand for safe-haven assets supported by a softer dollar and a high probability of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Lower U.S. Treasury yields and broader expectations of easier credit conditions in the United States reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Additional support comes from steady official-sector purchases and inflows into gold-linked products, while sentiment across equity markets remains mixed and keeps interest in defensive assets intact.

At the start of the week, spot prices hold above $4,200 per ounce and the news backdrop remains favorable: markets are pricing a strong chance of a December cut and responding to swings in the dollar. Over the short horizon the balance of drivers stays constructive: the combination of easier-policy expectations, a weak dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for gold and allows room for further gains after measured pullbacks.


Trade recommendation: BUY 4220.00, SL 4175.00, TP 4355.00

#SP500: BUY 6820, SL 6710, TP 7050

U.S. equities begin the week near record highs, remaining sensitive to Federal Reserve communication and the macro data flow. Expectations of policy easing in December support the valuation of future earnings and discount rates, which benefits rate-sensitive sectors and areas tied to investment cycles, including AI-related spending. While a mildly negative tone in parts of Asia and some company-specific headlines linger, they do not alter the broadly constructive view on U.S. corporate profitability.

The index also benefits from a lower premium on dollar liquidity and stabilizing inflation expectations, which bolster risk appetite and encourage allocations into broad benchmarks. Risks stem from unexpectedly firm central-bank messaging and any reassessment of the earnings trajectory, yet under a base case of a gentle Fed stance and neutral data, demand for equities remains resilient through the week.


Trade recommendation: BUY 6820, SL 6710, TP 7050

#BRENT: BUY 62.50, SL 60.00, TP 67.50

Brent starts the week firmer after signals from producer alliances about maintaining current output parameters and amid headlines of localized supply disruptions. The market is shifting attention from prior oversupply concerns to logistics and export risks, which reintroduces a risk premium into prices. Expectations of a softer U.S. policy stance also improve the broader environment for commodities by supporting risk sentiment and growth-sensitive assets.

Looking ahead, the medium-term path will hinge on U.S. demand and inventory prints, as well as updated balances from the major agencies. For now, the mix of stable producer policy, episodic news about infrastructure and transport, and a weaker dollar creates conditions for a gradual recovery in prices beyond current levels, while volatility may remain elevated around data releases.


Trade recommendation: BUY 62.50, SL 60.00, TP 67.50

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 2, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

03:00 EET. USD — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

The pound holds near monthly highs thanks to two factors: reduced dollar appeal amid weak U.S. manufacturing indicators and a moderately positive reception of budget measures in the United Kingdom. The external backdrop is shaped by higher expectations of Fed easing, which depress U.S. bond yields and support demand for currencies with greater sensitivity to global risk, including the pound.

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On the UK side, investors assess budget parameters and their impact on inflation and debt trajectories. While the Bank of England avoids premature signals of imminent easing, the labor market and persistent services prices continue to prevent a sharp decline in inflation expectations. As a result, the rate differential with the U.S. narrows mainly due to the watchful shift in Fed policy, which supports GBPUSD.

Key risks include worsening sentiment due to bond-market volatility and potential negative surprises in UK consumer data. However, under the base case (a softer dollar, neutral BoE messaging, no shocks), the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for a gradual strengthening of the pair, especially if U.S. yields do not resume rising on rhetoric against rate cuts.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.3220, SL 1.3210, TP 1.3290

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Metals on the Rise: Is Gold and Copper Ready to Surprise?

In November, clients most actively traded metals such as #XAUUSD, #XAGUSD, #CUCUSD, #XPTUSD, and #XAUEUR — these instruments showed the highest share of profitable trades. Today’s review focuses on the outlook for precious metals and copper: investor demand, industrial consumption, mining news, and rate expectations are shaping the sentiment for December and the final stretch of 2025.

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Growth Prospects for Metals Through the End of 2025

#XAUUSD — Gold is supported by central bank purchases and heightened demand during periods of uncertainty. The softer the Fed and the lower the yields, the more logical it becomes to buy on pullbacks.
#CUCUSD — Copper: disruptions at mines and rising demand (energy transition, power grids, data centers, transportation) increase the risk of a supply deficit. Against this backdrop, copper pullbacks look like buying opportunities.
#XPTUSD — Platinum: limited supply and stable industrial demand support prices. With a calm news cycle, pullbacks may provide a chance to catch up with more popular metals.
#XAUEUR — Gold in EUR: market volatility and strong demand for safe-haven assets continue to support gold prices in euros. Even at elevated levels, traders still use pullbacks for buying.
#XAGUSD — Silver: industrial demand (solar energy, electronics) combined with gold’s dynamics supports silver. If market sentiment turns, pullbacks may rebound upward.

According to FreshForex analysts, a softer Fed stance, strong safe-haven and industrial demand, and potential supply-side risks create a supportive environment for buyers of gold, silver, platinum, and copper, pointing to gradual price growth. Under these conditions, it makes sense to closely watch pullbacks and key levels for phased position building — while maintaining strict risk control.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 3, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

USDJPY:

The yen is strengthening on Wednesday, 26 November 2025, following reports that the Bank of Japan is prepared to consider a rate hike as early as December and amid discussions of measures aimed at containing inflation risks. The narrowing of rate‑expectations differentials with the US is reducing the appeal of long USD/JPY positions, while the possibility of official comments on the FX market during a low‑liquidity period is deterring participants from increasing USD/JPY longs.

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A modest improvement in risk appetite following well-received JGB auctions reduces demand for the dollar as a refuge and supports a yen recovery. Additionally, year-end seasonality—repatriation flows and exporters’ dollar selling—strengthens resistance to further USDJPY gains, especially in the absence of fresh, strong U.S. drivers.

Risks to short positions include a sudden rebound in U.S. yields or signs that Japan’s normalization is delayed, which could push the pair back above 156. Even so, the balance of factors (yield spread, BoJ policy, seasonal yen support) favors selling on rallies with predefined loss limits.

Trading recommendation: SELL 155.55, SL 155.85, TP 154.65

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 4, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

EURUSD:

The euro strengthens against the dollar as markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at the December 9 meeting, following softer U.S. labor and services data. U.S. Treasury yields have stabilized below recent highs, reducing the dollar’s yield premium and supporting demand for the euro. An additional tailwind is the decline in the cost of dollar hedging for euro-area investors, which facilitates capital flows into European assets.

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Near-term risks for the euro appear limited because the ECB is not seen rushing to ease policy, while business activity in the euro area shows signs of stabilization. At the same time, the dollar’s rally of recent months has faded as the expected Fed rate path is repriced, with markets again assigning a high probability to a cut already in December. Taken together, this keeps EURUSD near multi-week highs.

Given the current news balance and softer dollar backdrop, a moderate upward grind in the pair remains the base case, provided risk controls are maintained. A surprise upside in U.S. data could dampen momentum; however, today’s fundamental setup still looks supportive for the euro.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1655, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1715

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 5, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

GBPUSD:

The pound is trading around 1.3330, benefiting from a weak dollar amid expectations of a Fed rate cut as early as December. The downward trend in the dollar index and stabilized U.S. yields create conditions for sustained demand for higher-yielding currencies and support interest in the British currency, especially against the backdrop of improving global risk sentiment.

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The domestic backdrop in the UK remains mixed: price pressures are gradually easing while economic activity is slowing unevenly. The Bank of England maintains a wait-and-see stance, allowing the market to assess the balance between fighting inflation and growth risks. The absence of sharp surprises in macro data reduces the likelihood of abrupt swings and supports a gradual strengthening of the pound under a neutral external backdrop.

The key driver of near-term dynamics remains the path of U.S. monetary policy: growing confidence in a Fed rate cut supports the pair’s advance. Risks to the scenario include an unexpected spike in U.S. inflation or a tightening of U.S. financial conditions. Given the current balance of factors, a preference is given to buying.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3325, SL 1.3305, TP 1.3395.

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Top winners in the stock market

Recently, the shares of Marvell Technology Inc (#Marvel), Dell Technologies Inc (#Dell), Uber Technologies Inc (#Uber), Coinbase Global Inc (#Coinbase), and Palantir Technologies Inc (#Palantir) have risen amid increasing demand for products essential to artificial intelligence — chips, servers, and software.

Key triggers:

1. Strong industry news: companies producing chips and servers reported results above expectations and signaled further growth.
2. Uber’s launch of robotaxi services.
3. A surge in crypto activity at the end of November.

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Five Growth Drivers:

#Marvel (+21.2%) — a surge following earnings and the acquisition of Celestial AI (developer of optical solutions for AI) for ~$3.25 billion, paired with an optimistic outlook for next year.
#Dell (+12.9%) — raised its guidance thanks to soaring demand for AI servers and a record number of confirmed orders.
#Uber (+8.5%) — shares gained after the launch of robotaxi services in Dallas in partnership with Avride, signaling a new stage of autonomous ride scaling.
#Coinbase (+7.1%) — a rebound in late November driven by increased crypto volatility and trading volumes (Coinbase profits from trading activity).
#Palantir (+7.2%) — supported by a strong Q4 outlook and continued demand for its AI platform; enthusiasm in the AI sector fueled additional momentum.

Strong fundamental drivers for #Marvel / #Dell (AI infrastructure) and #Palantir (contracts + commercial AI) create solid ground for the trend to continue. #Uber gains fresh momentum from robotaxi expansion, and #Coinbase stands to benefit further if elevated crypto activity and higher trading volumes persist.

FreshForex analysts see continued growth potential for#Marvel, #Dell, #Uber, #Coinbase, and #Palantir, supported by rising demand for AI solutions and digital infrastructure.
As long as no concrete industry issues arise (such as delays or cancellations of major AI-hardware orders, or chip supply disruptions), these stocks retain strong upward prospects.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 8, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

Dollar/yen is fluctuating around 155, with the prospect of a December Fed rate cut capping the pair’s upside via a narrowing US–Japan yield spread. Against the backdrop of expectations for a mild Fed step, demand for dollar hedging is easing, and any spikes in US yields remain shallow. This reduces support for USD/JPY near local highs.

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Japanese factors include heightened official sensitivity to sharp currency moves and ongoing discussions of conditions for further policy normalization as inflation holds near target and wage bargaining outcomes improve. Combined with the external backdrop, this creates a bias toward moderate yen appreciation while preserving orderly market conditions.

We position for a downside correction: a sell from 155.25, stop at 155.40 just above the nearby volatility zone; target at 154.60 for a return to more balanced levels if the dollar softens after the Fed decision. Main risks include a sharp rise in US yields, unexpected statements reducing the odds of easing, and a lack of signals toward normalization in Japan.

Trading recommendation: SELL 155.25, SL 155.40, TP 154.60

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Weekly Outlook: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 12 December 2025

XAUUSD: BUY 4215.50, SL 4195.00, TP 4337.00

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Gold enters the week supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar. The spot price is holding around 4,215 per ounce as of Monday morning. The market assigns a high probability to a rate reduction already at the December meeting, which lowers real yields and increases the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven assets. An additional backdrop is the continued interest from the official sector: according to professional organizations, central banks are maintaining net purchases and, overall, intend to build up gold reserves.

On a one-week horizon, the base case for XAUUSD remains constructive: potential monetary easing in the United States, a cautious tone in assessing the economy, and elevated uncertainty support demand for this “quiet” asset. Risks to the upside scenario include a tougher-than-expected Fed statement, unexpectedly strong U.S. data, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking after new highs. As a tactic, we suggest buying at 4,215.50, with a protective stop at 4,195.00 and a target area at 4,337.00.

Trading recommendation: BUY 4215.50, SL 4195.00, TP 4337.00

#SP500: BUY 6870, SL 6830, TP 7140

The U.S. equity market approaches the week of a key Fed decision near record levels: the index is fluctuating around 6,870. A cut in the policy rate would increase the economy’s sensitivity to investment stimuli and ease financing conditions, which typically supports large-cap stocks. Another factor is resilient earnings expectations in sectors investing in digital infrastructure and automation. On the news front, a series of corporate reports and comments from Fed leadership will set the tone for the coming weeks.

Key risks to further gains include a future rate path that proves higher than participants expect, signs of cooling consumer activity, and potential margin pressure from costs. Even so, if the course toward monetary easing is confirmed, the base case is moderate further upside. The tactic is to buy from 6,870 with protection at 6,830 and a target of 7,140.

Trading recommendation: BUY 6870, SL 6830, TP 7140

#BRENT: BUY 63.80, SL 63.30, TP 69.80

Brent crude begins the week around 63.80 per barrel amid expectations of a Fed rate cut and supply-related headlines. The likelihood of monetary easing in the United States supports the outlook for future energy demand. On the supply side, sporadic disruptions and OPEC+ caution in ramping up output persist, while high-frequency data indicate fluctuations in actual shipments from certain countries. In parallel, foreign-trade statistics for major consumers signal heavy import loads toward year-end.

On a one-week horizon, the balance of factors looks moderately supportive for prices: the combination of rate expectations, supply news, and cross-border constraints in commodity trade keeps a risk premium in place. Risks to the upside scenario include an acceleration in global production in 2025–2026, weak inventory data, and possible de-escalation of geopolitical threats, which would quickly remove the fear component from prices. We suggest a Brent buying tactic with entry at 63.80, a stop at 63.30, and a target at 69.80.

Trading recommendation: BUY 63.80, SL 63.30, TP 69.80

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 9, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - JOLTs Job Openings

EURUSD:

The euro/dollar is trading near 1.1650 ahead of the Fed decision, with markets pricing a 25 bp rate cut. The regulator’s wording and fresh assessments of the U.S. economy remain key for short-term demand for the dollar. After a series of softer data and rising odds of December easing, participants are evaluating the path of rates into 2026, which keeps dollar volatility elevated on decision day.

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Additional pressure on the euro comes from its notable appreciation in real effective terms: a stronger currency worsens export conditions and encourages caution at the ECB amid weak growth and subdued credit demand in the euro area. By contrast, even with a Fed cut, U.S. yields remain attractive relative to European ones, reducing incentives to add long euro positions against the dollar.

The mix of expected Fed easing with an emphasis on data dependence, risks to European exports from a firm euro, and a still-positive yield premium in favor of the U.S. argues for a pullback in EURUSD from the 1.1650 area. In this setup, selling is preferred with moderate risk and potential for a return toward last week’s levels.

Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1650, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1560

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Market Fundamental Analysis for December 10, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

Sterling holds just above 1.33, but momentum is capped: the focus is the Fed decision and subsequent signals from the Bank of England. The market has priced a December U.S. cut, so the reaction of the pound depends on guidance for 2026. If the Fed underscores caution and data dependence, demand for the dollar can firm, acting as a headwind for GBP.

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In the U.K., growth remains sluggish, the consumer is under pressure, and business activity lacks sustained acceleration. MPC members’ remarks are mixed, but the overarching message balances inflation risks against a sensitive economy. That limits the chance the BoE can quickly diverge from the global easing tilt if data deteriorate.

The external position also matters: the trade deficit and reliance on global financial conditions keep the pound sensitive to swings in the dollar and U.S. yields. Overall, the current set of fundamental drivers supports short positions in the pair if the dollar strengthens after the Fed, especially should U.S. indicators confirm resilient employment and moderating inflation.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3300, SL 1.3330, TP 1.3210

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