[UPDATED] Post election Trump, prediction bets, will USA own Greenland bets

[Sithara007]

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This thread is created for us to witness the accuracy of these prediction markets created around his presidential term. The woke, pink haired Kamala lovers should not take this thread personal.

Well.. let's not involve in personal attacks and name calling. In the end, it was proven that prediction markets such as Polymarket were much more accurate when compared to Opinion polls. And this is a serious issue, since for the last three consecutive elections the opinion polls are underestimating Trump. Now it can't be termed as methodological error, and a lot of people are claiming that this is election interference to favor the Democrats. The poll by Ann Selzer on Iowa is the prime example.

[Haunebu]

In the end, it was proven that prediction markets such as Polymarket were much more accurate when compared to Opinion polls. And this is a serious issue, since for the last three consecutive elections the opinion polls are underestimating Trump. Now it can't be termed as methodological error, and a lot of people are claiming that this is election interference to favor the Democrats. The poll by Ann Selzer on Iowa is the prime example.

I disagree. Sites like Polymarket are subject to market manipulation which clearly happened during that election period though the odds turned out to be realistic which isn't always the case.

Almost all opinion polls estimated Trump's winning chances correctly, but over-estimated Kamala's winning chances if you observed properly.

[bbc.reporter]

In the end, it was proven that prediction markets such as Polymarket were much more accurate when compared to Opinion polls. And this is a serious issue, since for the last three consecutive elections the opinion polls are underestimating Trump. Now it can't be termed as methodological error, and a lot of people are claiming that this is election interference to favor the Democrats. The poll by Ann Selzer on Iowa is the prime example.

I disagree. Sites like Polymarket are subject to market manipulation which clearly happened during that election period though the odds turned out to be realistic which isn't always the case.

Almost all opinion polls estimated Trump's winning chances correctly, but over-estimated Kamala's winning chances if you observed properly.

However, you do not see and have understood that there are skillful traders in these markets where they will take advantage of the changes in these prices and put much money where opportunity will show. If the market on yes is pumped and manipulated then it would be very much profitable to bet on no which will create a balance on the price of yes and no. Do you not understand this simple concept on sportsbetting? This is also something similar in trading where a cryptocoin might be overbought or oversold.  This is similar to the prediction market hehehe.

Also, the participants that move the prices in prediction markets who look for these opportunities of mispricing caused by reasons like your manipulation accusation are whales. They are not small minnows like us hehehe. They are skilled traders who will very much welcome manipulation because this will cause a mispricing. This is where they are collecting their profit heheheheh.

[Sithara007]

I disagree. Sites like Polymarket are subject to market manipulation which clearly happened during that election period though the odds turned out to be realistic which isn't always the case.

Almost all opinion polls estimated Trump's winning chances correctly, but over-estimated Kamala's winning chances if you observed properly.

The part in bold doesn't make sense to me.

After he won, Donald Trump sued Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. And he had valid reasons to do so. When the race is actually razor tight, and then if an opinion poll suddenly shows Trump trailing by 8 or 10 points, then it can demotivate at least a part of the Trump supporters and a lot of them may decide not to turn up at the voter booth. For me, this is not a "polling miss". I would term this either as a "election interference" or as a "voter fraud".

For those who don't have the background information: Selzer poll showed Trump trailing by 3% versus Harris in Iowa a few days before the elections. Trump actually won by a margin of +13.2%.

[bbc.reporter]

I disagree. Sites like Polymarket are subject to market manipulation which clearly happened during that election period though the odds turned out to be realistic which isn't always the case.

Almost all opinion polls estimated Trump's winning chances correctly, but over-estimated Kamala's winning chances if you observed properly.

The part in bold doesn't make sense to me.

After he won, Donald Trump sued Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. And he had valid reasons to do so. When the race is actually razor tight, and then if an opinion poll suddenly shows Trump trailing by 8 or 10 points, then it can demotivate at least a part of the Trump supporters and a lot of them may decide not to turn up at the voter booth. For me, this is not a "polling miss". I would term this either as a "election interference" or as a "voter fraud".

For those who don't have the background information: Selzer poll showed Trump trailing by 3% versus Harris in Iowa a few days before the elections. Trump actually won by a margin of +13.2%.

Hehehe it appears there are some that have not accepted that it was the media pollsters and surveys that were manipulated and they blame that the Republicans are manipulating the prediction markets heheheh. Why would Republicans or their supporters manipulate a market where they will certainly be exploited by the whales because of the mispricing hehehehe. This is a very headshaking speculation.

Also, is anyone living in California? Our prayers are with you for the threatening ring of fire. We wish everyone of you to be safe because it appears that the fire has only 1% chance to be contained on Friday according to this prediction market.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-palisades-fire-be-contained-by-friday?tid=1736399788993

[virasog]

Also, is anyone living in California? Our prayers are with you for the threatening ring of fire. We wish everyone of you to be safe because it appears that the fire has only 1% chance to be contained on Friday according to this prediction market.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-palisades-fire-be-contained-by-friday?tid=1736399788993

Isn't it strange to have such events in the predictions market   People are dying there and other are making prediction whether this will be over and betting on it.
Five killed as new Hollywood Hills fire prompts more evacuations in massively destructive LA wildfires

The 1-2% chance shows that people are betting that fire won't be contained there by 90%. I am sure majority of people will win this bet as this bet ends tomorrow and there is no way it can be 90% controlled by then.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California is 90% contained or more by January 10, 2025

[Haunebu]

However, you do not see and have understood that there are skillful traders in these markets where they will take advantage of the changes in these prices and put much money where opportunity will show. If the market on yes is pumped and manipulated then it would be very much profitable to bet on no which will create a balance on the price of yes and no. Do you not understand this simple concept on sportsbetting? This is also something similar in trading where a cryptocoin might be overbought or oversold.  This is similar to the prediction market hehehe.

Hehehe dumdum? What the heck are you even on about? It's pretty damn evident that you don't really understand how market manipulation truly works which is why you are simply spewing nonsensical crap like the Trump puppet that you are. Think!

The part in bold doesn't make sense to me.

After he won, Donald Trump sued Iowa pollster Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register. And he had valid reasons to do so. When the race is actually razor tight, and then if an opinion poll suddenly shows Trump trailing by 8 or 10 points, then it can demotivate at least a part of the Trump supporters and a lot of them may decide not to turn up at the voter booth. For me, this is not a "polling miss". I would term this either as a "election interference" or as a "voter fraud".

Spoken like a proper MAGA fan. My statement clearly mentioned 'Almost all' and 'Not all' polls. The dude was underestimated only in the 2016 polls.

[shogun47]

Ok this could be a long story to be discussed, but holding onto Biden undermined the democratic party as a whole. I believe in his best times he could have been a great president, gut now what everyone could observe it was shameful and I think the crowd thought that a party that tries to hide and support a candidate like Biden is most likely not able to present anyone else who could seriously challenge a Republican candidate. They have taken it too far and should have stopped the whole thing earlier, if not avoid Biden altogether. In hindsight, this guy was too old, but I admit I didn't see it on his first day as president. To me it seems his decay accelerated and we will see whether Trump with his age will do much better for his whole term. I think he is healthy enough to be doing great for two years, maybe three years, but I also think that four years could be quite a distance for him as he is not the smartest guy in the world. Age would only add to his downfall.

Holding on to Biden in a way impacted the Democrat prospects. But then, Kamala's number indicated that she underperformed. Look at the swing states. Check the difference between Democrat senate candidates and Kamala. She failed to attract the neutral voters, as a result of her far-left policies, and it was very clear from the results. Democrats made two mistakes this time. First, they failed to replace Biden quickly enough. And secondly, they failed to select a candidate who was able to attract neutral voters, when their votes mattered the most.

Yes there isn't much too add here and I think that the bigger problem was waiting too long. I don't know what candidate they could have magically nominated who in such a short period of time would have left the right impressions for people to be convinced of him or her. In elections, time is an important factor as it subconsciously works peoples' minds towards a political direction.It is just how advertisement works.

But now we are entering a time full of surprises I am sure. I don't know whether those who voted for Trump really believe to know what they actually voted for. 24 hour ending the Ukraine war, now he said he is going to meet Putin within six months. So many things already sound differently, but time will tell us. Now it's leaning back with a big pack of popcorn.

[blockman]

But now we are entering a time full of surprises I am sure. I don't know whether those who voted for Trump really believe to know what they actually voted for. 24 hour ending the Ukraine war, now he said he is going to meet Putin within six months. So many things already sound differently, but time will tell us. Now it's leaning back with a big pack of popcorn.

Only time will tell. All of those plans he's got and with all of the deportation of majority of the illegal migrants. There are so much to do with all of his words. We'll see how he'll do it all but I am sure with resources and people, he'll simply assign someone each of those tasks to make it happen after the talks with the other leaders.

[bbc.reporter]

However, you do not see and have understood that there are skillful traders in these markets where they will take advantage of the changes in these prices and put much money where opportunity will show. If the market on yes is pumped and manipulated then it would be very much profitable to bet on no which will create a balance on the price of yes and no. Do you not understand this simple concept on sportsbetting? This is also something similar in trading where a cryptocoin might be overbought or oversold.  This is similar to the prediction market hehehe.

Hehehe dumdum? What the heck are you even on about? It's pretty damn evident that you don't really understand how market manipulation truly works which is why you are simply spewing nonsensical crap like the Trump puppet that you are. Think!

Hehehee I am sorry, I did not imply disrespect towards you. In any case, if for example if Trump is in reality only 20% to win the election, however, the Republican market manipulators placed large trades to manipulate the prediction market and make the rating of the yes Trump win to an 80% victory for Trump, then the smart whales will enter this market and place large trades on Kamala because this is profitable to do and they will keep trading until the market becomes efficient again.

I am only talking about reality heheheheh.

Also, is anyone living in California? Our prayers are with you for the threatening ring of fire. We wish everyone of you to be safe because it appears that the fire has only 1% chance to be contained on Friday according to this prediction market.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-palisades-fire-be-contained-by-friday?tid=1736399788993

Isn't it strange to have such events in the predictions market   People are dying there and other are making prediction whether this will be over and betting on it.
Five killed as new Hollywood Hills fire prompts more evacuations in massively destructive LA wildfires

The 1-2% chance shows that people are betting that fire won't be contained there by 90%. I am sure majority of people will win this bet as this bet ends tomorrow and there is no way it can be 90% controlled by then.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California is 90% contained or more by January 10, 2025

Yes, it is headshaking, however, this is the purpose of prediction markets and this has been the question that I have been asking since the Donald vs. Kamala election. What can give a more accurate and unbiased prediction, the mainstream experts or the prediction markets?

[EarnOnVictor]

✂✂✂✂
This thread is created for us to witness the accuracy of these prediction markets created around his presidential term. The woke, pink haired Kamala lovers should not take this thread personal.

Well.. let's not involve in personal attacks and name calling. In the end, it was proven that prediction markets such as Polymarket were much more accurate when compared to Opinion polls. And this is a serious issue, since for the last three consecutive elections the opinion polls are underestimating Trump. Now it can't be termed as methodological error, and a lot of people are claiming that this is election interference to favor the Democrats. The poll by Ann Selzer on Iowa is the prime example.

People will talk but many things have an explanation to them. If the popular opinion polls could be faulted this way, why can't the market opinion like that of Polymarket be faulted as well? For people to win in polls doesn't mean such people will win in reality. Do you know why? It's because many of the voters are actually busy with their lives, they didn't participate in opinion polls. So those who are voting on the opinion poll could be those who have the time and might only be a fraction of those who will actually vote. For instance, 100% are booked to vote and 50% reflect the opinion vote to know people's sentiments, what about the additional 50% that did not participate in such but voted in the actual election? Let's stop heating the polity unnecessarily.

[Sithara007]

Second inauguration of Donald Trump is only 10 days away, as of now. I was going through different live bets in Polymarket, and the one that attracted my attention the most was this one:

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-his-first-100-days

At the moment, according to Polymarket there is a 27% chance of it happening. And the odds have remained steady despite news coming that the United States Department of Justice is planning to sell a massive stash of BTC69,370.

[CryptSafe]

But now we are entering a time full of surprises I am sure. I don't know whether those who voted for Trump really believe to know what they actually voted for. 24 hour ending the Ukraine war, now he said he is going to meet Putin within six months. So many things already sound differently, but time will tell us. Now it's leaning back with a big pack of popcorn.

Only time will tell. All of those plans he's got and with all of the deportation of majority of the illegal migrants. There are so much to do with all of his words. We'll see how he'll do it all but I am sure with resources and people, he'll simply assign someone each of those tasks to make it happen after the talks with the other leaders.

It is his responsibility to work with his team which is his executive cabinet because he alone can not do it all. Already he has begun naming key executives who so far we have seen to be crypto enthusiasts with  Elon Musk at the top of affairs. His policies I believe would be a feasible one that would be able to accommodate all sectors cut across the economy of the US and the world at large. He is a good businessman and I believe he would also consider some factors favorable for his country over others hence the panic of some nations that do business for billions of dollars with the US in which they could produce such products.

[shogun47]

But now we are entering a time full of surprises I am sure. I don't know whether those who voted for Trump really believe to know what they actually voted for. 24 hour ending the Ukraine war, now he said he is going to meet Putin within six months. So many things already sound differently, but time will tell us. Now it's leaning back with a big pack of popcorn.

Only time will tell. All of those plans he's got and with all of the deportation of majority of the illegal migrants. There are so much to do with all of his words. We'll see how he'll do it all but I am sure with resources and people, he'll simply assign someone each of those tasks to make it happen after the talks with the other leaders.

He is already back-pedaling in some of the things that he has promised and the most prominent promise obviously was ending the Ukraine war within 24 hours. But I think Putin's attitude recently has shown him that it is not going to work like that when they have shown naked pictures on Russian TV and made jokes about Trump's wife, I think this was supposed to demonstrate to Trump that they don't take him as seriously as Trump wishes to be taken.

Yes time will tell, but I think regardless of the country you are living in, it is the same everywhere that huge promises are being made and only the minority of those promises become true at best.

Since this is about post election Trump bets, I think calling any bet on what Trump is going to do is pure gambling in the truest sense of the word. He is unpredictable and you can as well roll the dice...

[JiiBs]

But now we are entering a time full of surprises I am sure. I don't know whether those who voted for Trump really believe to know what they actually voted for. 24 hour ending the Ukraine war, now he said he is going to meet Putin within six months. So many things already sound differently, but time will tell us. Now it's leaning back with a big pack of popcorn.

Only time will tell. All of those plans he's got and with all of the deportation of majority of the illegal migrants. There are so much to do with all of his words. We'll see how he'll do it all but I am sure with resources and people, he'll simply assign someone each of those tasks to make it happen after the talks with the other leaders.

It is his responsibility to work with his team which is his executive cabinet because he alone can not do it all. Already he has begun naming key executives who so far we have seen to be crypto enthusiasts with  Elon Musk at the top of affairs. His policies I believe would be a feasible one that would be able to accommodate all sectors cut across the economy of the US and the world at large. He is a good businessman and I believe he would also consider some factors favorable for his country over others hence the panic of some nations that do business for billions of dollars with the US in which they could produce such products.

There wasn’t a way in which Trump would meet up on all his promises. It doesn’t depend on him alone as there are other players in this and pieces on the table that needs to fit. Some things his been about doing though which I am particulate about is, having the whole woke culture thing revoked and trashed. We would be sure to see fair cryptocurrency policies too, a government that is pro towards cryptocurrency acceptance and we all know what that would mean for the rest of us Bitcoiners too.
Trump is all about the US and I wouldn’t expect him not to be but, he really have to take into considerations the nations they are in business with when they come up with policies as in this time, countries are just moving towards where they find fairness.

[LUCKMCFLY]

There wasn’t a way in which Trump would meet up on all his promises. It doesn’t depend on him alone as there are other players in this and pieces on the table that needs to fit. Some things his been about doing though which I am particulate about is, having the whole woke culture thing revoked and trashed. We would be sure to see fair cryptocurrency policies too, a government that is pro towards cryptocurrency acceptance and we all know what that would mean for the rest of us Bitcoiners too.
Trump is all about the US and I wouldn’t expect him not to be but, he really have to take into considerations the nations they are in business with when they come up with policies as in this time, countries are just moving towards where they find fairness.

That is very true, but Trump also has his experts and he does that very well, he will also have the advice of Elon Musk and possibly his friend Robert Kiyosaki, the good thing about TRUMP is that he always surrounds himself with people who are very high level, he can possibly do everything he set out to do, he already has the majority of Republican congressmen and senators, that was what he didn't have when his first term, now he is doing everything possible so that this term can be extended to 8 years , Which I think he will achieve, it will not only bring very good news to crypto but to the whole world in general.

[Odusko]

There wasn’t a way in which Trump would meet up on all his promises. It doesn’t depend on him alone as there are other players in this and pieces on the table that needs to fit. Some things his been about doing though which I am particulate about is, having the whole woke culture thing revoked and trashed. We would be sure to see fair cryptocurrency policies too, a government that is pro towards cryptocurrency acceptance and we all know what that would mean for the rest of us Bitcoiners too.
Trump is all about the US and I wouldn’t expect him not to be but, he really have to take into considerations the nations they are in business with when they come up with policies as in this time, countries are just moving towards where they find fairness.

That is very true, but Trump also has his experts and he does that very well, he will also have the advice of Elon Musk and possibly his friend Robert Kiyosaki, the good thing about TRUMP is that he always surrounds himself with people who are very high level, he can possibly do everything he set out to do, he already has the majority of Republican congressmen and senators, that was what he didn't have when his first term, now he is doing everything possible so that this term can be extended to 8 years , Which I think he will achieve, it will not only bring very good news to crypto but to the whole world in general.

Most often and now, I have been a strong advocate in support of Bitcoin and what actions a country has to take to wise Bitcoin just like Nyib Bukele took that bold step way back to declare El Salvador as a Bitcoin-legal country, so the same it going to happen if Trump will truly continue to be a strong advocate for Bitcoin and same can be seen with all his close elite friend's, 20th of January is around the corner Trump administration will determine what we should expect from the market on a short term basis but to do so and the best that Trump can do is to mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech that is all that we need to know what is the direction for the journey promised during campaign.

[tread93]

There wasn’t a way in which Trump would meet up on all his promises. It doesn’t depend on him alone as there are other players in this and pieces on the table that needs to fit. Some things his been about doing though which I am particulate about is, having the whole woke culture thing revoked and trashed. We would be sure to see fair cryptocurrency policies too, a government that is pro towards cryptocurrency acceptance and we all know what that would mean for the rest of us Bitcoiners too.
Trump is all about the US and I wouldn’t expect him not to be but, he really have to take into considerations the nations they are in business with when they come up with policies as in this time, countries are just moving towards where they find fairness.

That is very true, but Trump also has his experts and he does that very well, he will also have the advice of Elon Musk and possibly his friend Robert Kiyosaki, the good thing about TRUMP is that he always surrounds himself with people who are very high level, he can possibly do everything he set out to do, he already has the majority of Republican congressmen and senators, that was what he didn't have when his first term, now he is doing everything possible so that this term can be extended to 8 years , Which I think he will achieve, it will not only bring very good news to crypto but to the whole world in general.

I don't think its really a good chance that he will get his term extended to 8 years lol. The presidential terms are 4 year terms, but who knows i've seen crazier stuff happen so i'll grab my popcorn! I just can't wait to see how he aquires greenland & a bunch of other things like the Gulf of America, the Panama Canal, and Canada. President Trump has a big wish list for his term the man is looking to seal his fate as the best US president we have ever seen I think that much is clear.

[bbc.reporter]

✂✂✂✂
This thread is created for us to witness the accuracy of these prediction markets created around his presidential term. The woke, pink haired Kamala lovers should not take this thread personal.

Well.. let's not involve in personal attacks and name calling. In the end, it was proven that prediction markets such as Polymarket were much more accurate when compared to Opinion polls. And this is a serious issue, since for the last three consecutive elections the opinion polls are underestimating Trump. Now it can't be termed as methodological error, and a lot of people are claiming that this is election interference to favor the Democrats. The poll by Ann Selzer on Iowa is the prime example.

People will talk but many things have an explanation to them. If the popular opinion polls could be faulted this way, why can't the market opinion like that of Polymarket be faulted as well? For people to win in polls doesn't mean such people will win in reality. Do you know why? It's because many of the voters are actually busy with their lives, they didn't participate in opinion polls. So those who are voting on the opinion poll could be those who have the time and might only be a fraction of those who will actually vote. For instance, 100% are booked to vote and 50% reflect the opinion vote to know people's sentiments, what about the additional 50% that did not participate in such but voted in the actual election? Let's stop heating the polity unnecessarily.

Perfection is not the argument. The argument is on the creation of more accurate, more unbiased and more objective forecasts and predictions. No one can say that prediction markets can predict outcomes with 100% accuracy and I reckon no one in this forum has said this also. This is only an argument of unbiasedness and objectivity and what might give everyone a more better view of the different occurrences in the world and also to know where would manipulation is more possible to occur, on the news media forecasts and polls or on the prediction markets?

[Julien_Olynpic]

The main problem here is that prediction markets, like opinion polls, can be inaccurate on the one hand, and on the other hand, they can be subject to manipulation. And those who are very professional in their field can manipulate the data so skillfully that it will be indistinguishable from the truth. But if we compare prediction markets and opinion polls in terms of susceptibility to manipulation, the latter, in my opinion, are easier to manipulate. This is due to the fact that in opinion polls, people do not risk anything, for example, by selling their votes for money. In prediction markets, you make a bet that can lose and thus you will be punished for an incorrect prediction. This forces you to make the most accurate predictions. As for Trump, he made a lot of eccentric statements. And you only need to look at the odds that users on the prediction platform estimate for this to understand their true value.