Return rate for bitcoin for the next 10 years

[m2017]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

As you wish.

The crystal ball says that within 10 years, bitcoin will show a return of 500% to 750%. Despite the fact that many "tomorrow" expect to see bitcoin at a price of $1 mln., it seems to me that this will not happen in the next decade, because it should be taken into account that bitcoin has periods of depreciation, and also, for the growth of the value, more and more capitalization (investments) will be required. I assume that the growth rate will also decrease and I expect that within 10 years, bitcoin will reach the level of $500k-$750k (there were interferences in my crystal ball).

[paxmao]

I’d split it something like this, based on historical volatility and where I think we’re heading:

>Catastrophic: –20% p.a. (big ban or hack)
>Bearish: 0% p.a. (sideways, low interest)
>Neutral: +20% p.a. (steady adoption)
>Bullish: +50% p.a. (ETF flows + institutions)
>“God Mode”: +100% p.a. (massive macro push)

I temper early triple-digit returns since Bitcoin’s maturing, but 20–50% feels reasonable long-term. I plan by DCA’ing via MoonPay (straight to my wallet) and stress-test cash flows against these buckets.

What buckets are you using?

Not sure about the question. I am hodling since a few years back and getting a few sats from this and that add campaign and the like. What I make stays there in general terms, so I guess I am to a point time-diversifying.

I think that based on user Bitcoin posts, it may be reasonable to have one or two really bad years from time to time based on history, but as of today your scenarios seem good.

Edited to add: DCA ... I just google it. It seems to be the new fancy name for what has always been called temporal diversification.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

The bull we are experiencing today, I'm pretty sure no body would have believed we will be having it this early if been told probably the first quay of last year. And as such, I'm pretty much sure the future of Bitcoin is still very unclear on how far it's price could skyrocket high or low, depending on the market demands that might spike such reaction. Hence, I will love to say that since the majority of interest rate on stable coins are around 5% to 7% annually, if Bitcoin investment is to have an annual interest rate of either 2% to 3%. Then that wouldn't be a bad idea, knowing fully well it's value is likely to increase or decrease.

[348Judah]

Bitcoin right from time has been increasing in value, if you go through the earlier days of its adoption, what we can bring out from this is the way its widens with being exposed also contributes more about the return rate in it, as the market value increases, same also is the way we have it return rate getting more and increases over time, because its price has always been appreciative, despite upon every fall, we still have the way of how the market surge back and make all time high, you can imagine where we are all going to be in the next 10 year from now.

[betswift]

I’d split it something like this, based on historical volatility and where I think we’re heading:

>Catastrophic: –20% p.a. (big ban or hack)
>Bearish: 0% p.a. (sideways, low interest)
>Neutral: +20% p.a. (steady adoption)
>Bullish: +50% p.a. (ETF flows + institutions)
>“God Mode”: +100% p.a. (massive macro push)

I temper early triple-digit returns since Bitcoin’s maturing, but 20–50% feels reasonable long-term. I plan by DCA’ing via MoonPay (straight to my wallet) and stress-test cash flows against these buckets.

What buckets are you using?

Not sure about the question. I am hodling since a few years back and getting a few sats from this and that add campaign and the like. What I make stays there in general terms, so I guess I am to a point time-diversifying.

I think that based on user Bitcoin posts, it may be reasonable to have one or two really bad years from time to time based on history, but as of today your scenarios seem good.

As I would like to say - we wouldn't be able to see green without the red, and vice versa.

On BTC, this logic is truly there too.

[Obim34]

What range would you use and why?

Using 5 years timeframe, Bitcoin price as of August 1, 2020 was around $12,000

Bitcoin price as of August 1, 2025 $114, 000 = 890% ROI

This stat will not be used to calculate for the next 5-10 years but it is realistic to measure upto X5-X10 within the interval of 10 years.

In this course, entry price matters.

[melinoe]

What range would you use and why?

Using 5 years timeframe, Bitcoin price as of August 1, 2020 was around $12,000

Bitcoin price as of August 1, 2025 $114, 000 = 890% ROI

This stat will not be used to calculate for the next 5-10 years but it is realistic to measure upto X5-X10 within the interval of 10 years.

In this course, entry price matters.

Don't you think we would be somewhere on the downhill slope over these years?

We wouldn't see only an increase in the price..

[Adams0001]

what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

I don't think there is limit to how we can earn from our investment in Bitcoin, once we have the tenacity to invest and hold for some time till it becomes more profitable for us to sell, in my own case, any percentage is fine and ok by me, as long as am going to break even from it, once am not at loss, anything should be a profit except if am being greedy or something else.

Exactly, we can't predict the market and by the history of bitcoin we can't get huge profit easily we need to invest for the long term before you can be successful on it. Because many people that have be in wealth in bitcoin invest for long term. If we says we will be setting a range you will be greedy because you will always want to have huge profit before selling your coin. we can't predict bitcoin because of is volatile. If someone invest in bitcoin now In the next 10 years am very sure that you will be in profit, even is not double of is investment but you will surely get something at of it. that is why investing in long term is the best and will always minimize your risk from losing a lot in the market.

In my opinion, Anyone that have the capacity to invest in bitcoin will do so and he will always wait for profit before he sells. I don't think I usually focus on range because even we predict it he can probably change. So I just double my investment anytime I have the funds. and if I have small profits I usually sell it out. I don't want to be greedy because If you are someone that get profit and still leave it. waiting for huge profit always failed sometime because the market is not always friendly and you can lose your capital for some time because of the volatile.

[fuguebtc]

Using 5 years timeframe, Bitcoin price as of August 1, 2020 was around $12,000

Bitcoin price as of August 1, 2025 $114, 000 = 890% ROI

This stat will not be used to calculate for the next 5-10 years but it is realistic to measure upto X5-X10 within the interval of 10 years.

In this course, entry price matters.

Yes, entry prices are the main factor determining our profits over the next 10 years. Because in your example, those who bought bitcoin at $12k on August 1, 2020 would have made a profit of almost 900%. But in another example and in a 4 year time frame from 2021-now, people who bought bitcoin in November 2021 at $69k. The profit they earn is only about 70%, and this is not an attractive profit when they have to hold it for 4 years and face many ups and downs that the market brings.

Therefore, the rate of return and the level of profit we receive over the next 10 years will depend largely on our entry prices.

[paxmao]

Ok about the points of entry and all that, but I think that the way the question is put, the answer shoud be accounting for an entry point at today's prices (around 100k), altough that is not my entry point. To be honest, I do not have an entry point, because I bought a while ago, but I have been getting a few sats every week for... I do not know... 3 years maybe? So many "entry points".

[Franctoshi]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

You know predicting Bitcoin future return is something that still remains inherently uncertain because of its volatility nature, but if we use some performance data available, we will come up with a possible number for the yearly return rate.

Here is what I think

Very bad scenario; Caterophic event:
let say we have a world war 3 break out, and Nukes event happened, another government after Trump comes out with a heavy regulatory crackdown,  or some twists in the original agenda for Bitcoin and which result in great FUD and lose of trust for Bitcoin.( -15% -50%) is possible.

Bad situations: where Bitcoin bitcoin faces another competitor coin, as we've seen the government adopted, Sol, XRP and ADA, and suddenly bank preferred xrp as some rumours has been around over the Banks adopting XRP as their preferred mode of boder settlement due to its fast and cheaper fees. ( - 5% to 10% anual  return rate)


Neutral case : Nothing happened, adoption isn't much but not decreasing, everything remains stable, ( +5%, 10% - 15% annual return rate)

Good : everything is in good shape, technology advancement that enhances the use of Bitcoin, such as reduced costs of mining or even we experience a reduced cost of transaction fees etc. (+15% - 35% anual return rate)

Very good: (a.k.a God came to dinner) Here the world came together and agreed ( various government of the world to use Bitcoin as one global currency for trade and medium of exchange on the international/institutional level, imagine, out of 7+Billion population of the world adopts Bitcoin, and Bitcoin sucks the market cap of Gold. (40% 60% anual return rate is possible)

[tottong]

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

The 5: 50% Annual return is large and may be achieved in market conditions when experiencing a rally on the ATH cycle and on an annual scale may not always be able to reach that range, especially for those who are just starting with the amount of small capital placed.
I am not very concerned about such an ange because the investment target that we apply as an effort to be given value so that the process can refer to long -term targets regarding profits.

To compare maybe everyone has a view of the anual but how a person can refer to growth in the long run as a step of investment that is lived.

[MusaMohamed]

The crystal ball says that within 10 years, bitcoin will show a return of 500% to 750%. Despite the fact that many "tomorrow" expect to see bitcoin at a price of $1 mln., it seems to me that this will not happen in the next decade, because it should be taken into account that bitcoin has periods of depreciation, and also, for the growth of the value, more and more capitalization (investments) will be required. I assume that the growth rate will also decrease and I expect that within 10 years, bitcoin will reach the level of $500k-$750k (there were interferences in my crystal ball).

The target is next ten years so the crystal ball must be kicked off by your Bitcoin accumulation start from now. Assume you want to invest money in bitcoin for 10 years and you want to accumulate bitcoin since 2025, or more exactly since 13 August 2025, what you need to do?

You must identify which strategy to use for your accumulation. I recommend DCA strategy for Bitcoin accumulation as it was proven as an efficient investment strategy and if you are doubtful about its efficiency, you can check backwards with DCA calculators.

Everyone has doubt about this strategy can use this DCA calculator.
https://costavg.com/

For example with $10 weekly DCA for 10 years, you can have $5,540 investment capital that can be a too big investment capital with many investors. However, if you can spend $10 weekly in 10 years, you will be easily able to have it. The rest is Bitcoin works for you, brings profit to you.

If holding Bitcoin for 5 years is profitable, I really believe in very good ROI from holding bitcoin up to 10 years or longer.
https://hodl.camp/

[Darker45]

Bitcoin has already grown more than a hundred percent from 1 year ago. The same will easily repeat in the next year or two. So, in 2026 or 2027, the price has probably doubled already.

In which case, that's already 100% in your first to second year only. Whatever happens in the next 8 to 9 years, after all the ups and downs, if the price returns to $240,000, you've already averaged 10% per annum. That alone is enough to convince you that Bitcoin is still better than any bank products.

But that's just the "catastrophic" scenario. The "God came to dinner" scenario may be ten times better. I believe $1,000,000 per Bitcoin is within reach for the next 10 years. If that happens, then you'll get 100% growth per annum.

As a matter of fact, I don't even consider that as a "God came to dinner" scenario because that's very possible. That's not wishful thinking. If Bitcoin grew 700% since around 2 and a half years ago, is it 'God coming to dinner' if it grows just 500% for the next 10 years? Nope, not at all.

[HustleZ]

That’s a solid and thoughtful way to approach planning—especially with something as volatile as Bitcoin. When building a sensitivity model, you want each scenario to be **plausible**, **distinct**, and **illustrative** of potential futures, not just averages. Here's a range that many in the crypto community might consider *reasonably bounded* for a 10-year outlook, based on historical behavior, macro trends, and risk tolerance:

---

### 🚦 **Suggested Range of Bitcoin Annualized Returns Over 10 Years**

| Case | Scenario Description          | Expected Annual Return (r) | Notes                                                                                                                           |
| ---- | ----------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| 1    | **Catastrophic**              | **-15%**                   | Regulatory kill shot, protocol failure, better tech displaces BTC, major loss of faith. Capital flight.                         |
| 2    | **Bearish / Stagnation**      | **0%**                     | BTC survives but underperforms inflation; stagnant price action. No new narratives.                                             |
| 3    | **Moderate / Base Case**      | **7–10%**                  | Conservative growth. BTC tracks with growing adoption as store of value or digital gold. Matches or slightly outpaces S\&P 500. |
| 4    | **Bullish**                   | **20–25%**                 | Institutional adoption, favorable macro, increased scarcity narrative. Moderate network growth.                                 |
| 5    | **Moon / God Came to Dinner** | **40–60%**                 | Massive global adoption, BTC becomes reserve asset, extreme capital inflow from fiat. Decade-long bull cycle.                   |

---

### 💬 Why These Ranges?

* **Historical Precedent**: BTC has averaged \~60–200% CAGR in past cycles, but this *cannot* be linearly extended.
* **Market Maturation**: As BTC grows, it will likely experience **diminishing returns**—harder to double from \$1T to \$2T than \$100B to \$200B.
* **Macro Factors**: Rate policy, inflation, geopolitical crises, regulation, etc. affect returns.
* **Survivorship Bias**: Many investors forget that there is still non-zero risk of BTC going to zero (tech risk < legal/political risk).
* **Diversification & Hedging**: Negative and 0% return cases remind you to not over-leverage on upside only.

---

### 🛠 Modeling Tip:

If your sensitivity model is probabilistic (Monte Carlo, for example), you could assign rough probabilities to each case (e.g., Case 1: 10%, Case 2: 20%, etc.), or simply use them as **scenario bounds** for better clarity in planning.

---

Would you like me to help build a simple table, Excel sheet, or Python simulation for this?

i didnt have knowledge about what you were asking. this is what AI answered. hope it helps.

[john_egbert]

Bitcoin has already grown more than a hundred percent from 1 year ago. The same will easily repeat in the next year or two. So, in 2026 or 2027, the price has probably doubled already.

In which case, that's already 100% in your first to second year only. Whatever happens in the next 8 to 9 years, after all the ups and downs, if the price returns to $240,000, you've already averaged 10% per annum. That alone is enough to convince you that Bitcoin is still better than any bank products.

But that's just the "catastrophic" scenario. The "God came to dinner" scenario may be ten times better. I believe $1,000,000 per Bitcoin is within reach for the next 10 years. If that happens, then you'll get 100% growth per annum.

As a matter of fact, I don't even consider that as a "God came to dinner" scenario because that's very possible. That's not wishful thinking. If Bitcoin grew 700% since around 2 and a half years ago, is it 'God coming to dinner' if it grows just 500% for the next 10 years? Nope, not at all.

Depends entirely on where the rally would go next time, but truly, I do think that with BTC, anything could happen, and it probably is something good rather than bad

[Zanab247]

All I know is that bitcoin may be able to get to $500 thousand in the next 10 years, but you should know that there will be some tough time and not that the price will just continue to increase but in total, bitcoin should be able to increase above $500 thousand by that time. It will be a good investment.

For such price to roll into the market to hit $500k in the future, show that there are many bear run and bull run in the market people will observe to buy and hodl for long years to arrive in that price $500k.

If I remember how this $124k roll in this month of August, it was a shocked to me and some people that said bear market is on for people to get ready to buy, because the price dump to $119k before it started pumping to enter $124k few hours ago. BTC has been a good investment over some years to those that understand how the investment is profitable to investors that willing to sell during bull run.

[Iranus]

Bitcoin has already grown more than a hundred percent from 1 year ago. The same will easily repeat in the next year or two. So, in 2026 or 2027, the price has probably doubled already.

In which case, that's already 100% in your first to second year only. Whatever happens in the next 8 to 9 years, after all the ups and downs, if the price returns to $240,000, you've already averaged 10% per annum. That alone is enough to convince you that Bitcoin is still better than any bank products.

But that's just the "catastrophic" scenario. The "God came to dinner" scenario may be ten times better. I believe $1,000,000 per Bitcoin is within reach for the next 10 years. If that happens, then you'll get 100% growth per annum.

As a matter of fact, I don't even consider that as a "God came to dinner" scenario because that's very possible. That's not wishful thinking. If Bitcoin grew 700% since around 2 and a half years ago, is it 'God coming to dinner' if it grows just 500% for the next 10 years? Nope, not at all.

Bitcoin price is too volatile, and it is difficult to accurately calculate its future growth.

You are not wrong in saying that bitcoin has grown more than 100% in the last 1 year, but if you bought bitcoin 4 years ago at $69k (ATH in 2021). The profit you get is just over 80%.

Not to mention, bitcoin will grow slower in the future as its capitalization gets larger. That's why bitcoin could grow x10-x100 before, but now after more than 4 years it can't even grow x2.

Honestly, forget about bitcoin going up 100% per year and giving us 10x returns in the next 10 years, bitcoin is not small anymore.

[serjent05]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

In 10 years I think the return from 1 t0 5 being 1 the worst and 5 the best is 3.  The reason behind is that the growth of Bitcoin is somehow slows down.  We can observe it in every 4-year cycle ATH.  This is considering that you invest right now (1st time frame).  But there is more than this if you happen to invest in the bearish market and time it at near the lowest price (second time frame).  If you invest in the stated second time frame then the return would be 5.  You can see in the tab below  the reason why  I stated such remarks.  



Btw, it would be better if you wait for the full cycle on the later year of your holdings to maximize your profit, instead of 10 years make it 12 years to accomodate each 4-year cycle.

[Agbamoni]

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

First I'd say, we must consider realty here because its easier to pen down numbers on Bitcoin ROI whereas there are lots of real world factors that could get things messy. At least past circles has shown us that Bitcoin doesn't  go steady the way the stocks or bond investment do. I like your model but we should always consider a real case sceneior. The worst that could happen to Bitcoins price should be about -10% a years while the best could go above 50% annually. We cant predict what we will so we just invest and keep our hands crossed.