[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Serious setbacks and dumps are not happening.

There is too much buying pressure.

I remember when bitcoin rallied from 10'sh usd to 265.
Did not buy in the rally (unfortunately). However, I have pretty similar gut feeling of Monero - it has not done it yet. Too much buyers and now finally things has started to happen so selling now when things has rocking and rolling only 1 week feels pretty stupid.
I wonder who are these sellers...? How they make their decisions to sell? Probably they are just very desperate for cold cash (tax liabilities to pay?).

A lot of big (and smart) XMR holders are likely to have selling plans.
This means that they'll sell a certain percentage of their coins at a fixed price level.

Doing this eliminates emotional errors and risk.
Lots of these probably are hitting their selling targets now and sell.

I certainly did.

Those who sold sub 0.01 are complaining about selling too early.. So the selling plan will not work always in an optimal way. I bet many who sell now will regret if the price hits 100 usd/xmr.
On the other hand, the people holding only smaller amounts of coins will make the big guys even bigger in terms of size of the Monero pie. Those who sell will become poorer in Monero economy.
If I sold what shall I do with the fiat? Perhaps buy some Realty Income shares? Nah, only 4-5 % pa dividend yield. Buying gold? Probably not in large extent because Monero is better (although it doesn't glitter). Appartments? Probably... But again, I can do it also with the banker with 100 % financed so no money needed...

It's always about gold. In the end. Even if you never buy any, its always about how much you could buy, if you wanted to. Gold is the the tip of the liquidity pyramid. It is timeless, immutable money. It is money as decreed by the laws of nature and the universe its self. Its always about gold.

Maybe this will explain what I mean. I  bet you could buy a space faring vessel from an alien species somewhere with gold. Try doing that with monero or apartments.

I also like some gold coins...And I even own around 10 oz.
That being said, I do not promote to go all in gold. Gold produces nothing and is good only for very short periods (and usually when you want to sell the dealers cannot give you a good rate or are closed because they do not want to buy high).
Most of the assets should be producing cash flow, not standing idle in the vaults of Switzerland. Appartments are giving me nice 10 % ROI and even higher ROE when using debt wisely.

I agree with all of that.

[Febo]

Some stats from moneroprice.i2p:

Total XMR volume: 128.6m XMR
Last 3 weeks XMR volume: 48m XMR

In last 3 weeks was 1/3 of all XMR volume. And since price is way higher now, that way lot more BTC volume.   This shows us how different trading of Monero is now  as it was in last 2 years.  We simply can't learn from past anymore since is totally new money and new people in XMR right now.

Bitsquare is a decentralized bitcoin exchange. Your funds are located on your own computer and there are no KYC/AML type of ID requirements. It's now even possible to run it on raspberry pi (albeit a bit slow).
But it's still relatively low volume, so we need more traders. Please consider checking it out. Come to #bitsquare on IRC if you have questions.

Everyone should use it more. I know changes are not what most people like and Poloniex is just cool but trading on more exchanges just help the coin. If not enough volume people will not bother trading there. Also Polo withdrawal limits. Trading here gives you none.

[aminorex]

Just as bitcoin will likely fade under the scorching light of monero, so too will monero some.

In relative terms perhaps, but I expect BTC to appreciate for decades yet.  It will fail eventually, unless the tail mining support is established.  Monero will not.  What properties would compel us to adopt an alternative?  Only state dictat, I think, and that will not suffice to displace Monero from its current niche, ever.

How do we deal with the impending and eventual CPU power hack?

If you mean the devaluation of cryptonight, that is part and parcel with post-quantum crypto, in my view.

[drawingthesun]

It's always about gold. In the end. Even if you never buy any, its always about how much you could buy, if you wanted to. Gold is the the tip of the liquidity pyramid. It is timeless, immutable money. It is money as decreed by the laws of nature and the universe its self. Its always about gold.

Maybe this will explain what I mean. I  bet you could buy a space faring vessel from an alien species somewhere with gold. Try doing that with monero or apartments.

Really the only universal currency for the universe is energy.

From energy matter can be created or transformed, I'd imagine a sufficiently advanced civilisation to be able to turn dirt into gold, the key ingredient here is enough energy to perform the conversion.

If energy is the baseline currency of the universe, then what comes closer, Bitcoin (or another crypto) or gold?

This just boils down to the energy requirement and abundance of that resource.

There are asteroids full of gold, remember that dying stars make a lot of gold and spread it out among the cosmos.

Gold can be converted from something else, the question is, how long until mining one bitcoin (or one bitcoin worth of transactions) is of the same energy requirement that it takes to convert a lump of dirt into a lump of gold?

That's the thing, an advanced civilisation could take a ton of water and via matter conversion/particle accelerators or advanced almost magical technologies and turn that into a ton of gold.

They can't turn the water into Bitcoin or Monero.

Of course they can try and use their immense resources to break Bitcoins keys or attack the network etc... and again if they succeed comes down to energy.

Sorry for my ramblings.

But yeah, I don't think that Gold will be the universal currency.

Bitcoin is better suited, but an alien society will have it's own crypto.

So really, it's just energy.

So go grab yourself some stars and start charging those Tesla batteries.

[Anon136]

Sorry cant really give you guys good replies. Baby asleep on arm.

[nioc]

Some stats from moneroprice.i2p:

Total XMR volume: 128.6m XMR
Last 3 weeks XMR volume: 48m XMR

In last 3 weeks was 1/3 of all XMR volume. And since price is way higher now, that way lot more BTC volume.   This shows us how different trading of Monero is now  as it was in last 2 years.  We simply can't learn from past anymore since is totally new money and new people in XMR right now.

Bitsquare is a decentralized bitcoin exchange. Your funds are located on your own computer and there are no KYC/AML type of ID requirements. It's now even possible to run it on raspberry pi (albeit a bit slow).
But it's still relatively low volume, so we need more traders. Please consider checking it out. Come to #bitsquare on IRC if you have questions.

Everyone should use it more. I know changes are not what most people like and Poloniex is just cool but trading on more exchanges just help the coin. If not enough volume people will not bother trading there. Also Polo withdrawal limits. Trading here gives you none.

(bolded)  But Monero usually does this at this time of year    

I checked bitsquare last week and being the idiot I am I couldn't figure out how to buy.  I will definitely avail myself of TheKoziTwo's help and buy some.  Oh good, another excuse to buy at a ludicrous price.  Last ludicrous price was 0.0143 and I blamed my gf.  Even though I gave her 2 chances to question what's going on she still hasn't.  So cute.  Those are still her coins.

[alphahacktivist]

Scare walls disappear when bought. I smell blood.

Come to me, my lovely...

the whale showing off with his 50k ish xmr is a fun guy. everytime he show off with his wealth i buy 50btc out of him and watch him panic and take it off. i sell immediately of course to not be in the price drop.

he did that few days ago i bought 48btc, he did it today i bought in 55btc. first time he did it i bought in 80btc. he panics, i sell all i bought immediately and few minutes later he crash the price, i buy low and hold

with 25% vendors listing accepting xmr, over 50k volume already done in alphabay, there is no possible way xmr will fail.

some whales can crash the price, but it doesnt matter really, the demand is existant now due to its privacy.
hash rate exceeds that of eth even. several known developpers coding for xmr. gui wallet which will enable transaction from xmr to btc thus fulfilling the demand of all vendors. this year looks very promising and i will have to start ordering bitwala card to spend xmr now 

[Febo]

with 25% vendors listing accepting xmr, over 50k volume already done in alphabay, there is no possible way xmr will fail.

This numbers are speculations or how you got them?

[alphahacktivist]

with 25% vendors listing accepting xmr, over 50k volume already done in alphabay, there is no possible way xmr will fail.

This numbers are speculations or how you got them?

more 10 pages of listing on AB, and several vendors coming out helping the market establish around xmr. promoting it. several vendors urging others to use both in the near future.

but of course its not an exact amount. however i did check out all the pages and found 10 or 11 pages

[novag]

People want to price 0.03

[CTTE]

Based on everything I am seeing right now, it really appears to me like the price is ready to take off! (no moon talk... too cliche) but, I think the price would move significantly if it weren't for a few big fish (one?) splashing around in the pool causing Noobs and others to panic whenever they see their trademark sell wall.   

I'm kind of surprised that we haven't beat this bully up, taken away his lunch money and sent him home to momma yet. If you can't tell... I Hate being manipulated like this! But other than that, once his games are done, we should make some pretty massive moves unless, he's tainted the waters for too many people.

[infofront]

Based on everything I am seeing right now, it really appears to me like the price is ready to take off! (no moon talk... too cliche) but, I think the price would move significantly if it weren't for a few big fish (one?) splashing around in the pool causing Noobs and others to panic whenever they see their trademark sell wall.   

I'm kind of surprised that we haven't beat this bully up, taken away his lunch money and sent him home to momma yet. If you can't tell... I Hate being manipulated like this! But other than that, once his games are done, we should make some pretty massive moves unless, he's tainted the waters for too many people.

There's manipulation happening on both sides, possibly by the same party(s) as on the sell side. That's why you can sometimes see bids jump from 5,200 BTC to 7,400 BTC, then drop to 6,200 BTC, all within a few minutes.

[Hueristic]

...
Really the only universal currency for the universe is energy....

I would postulate time.

[aminorex]

I don't think CTTE minds the upward factors.

There will be more, and larger, players.  Might as well get used to it.  At least this one is a net accumulator.  ( Of course at first they all are, since they start at zero.)

But yeah, price wants to go to 03.  

If you're feeling stress, get away from the market for a while.  Come back when it's near you target price.  Get a phone app with a price alarm, then ignore it.

I won't complain.  I'm extracting about 50bp/diem from the vol, for the past few weeks.

[aminorex]

...
Really the only universal currency for the universe is energy....

I would postulate time.

Time:energy and position:momentum are the classic quantum informative pairs.

I would describe information as the underlying universal value.  God acts to maximize freedom.  So should we.

[coinism]

...
Really the only universal currency for the universe is energy....

I would postulate time.

Time:energy and position:momentum are the classic quantum informative pairs.

I would describe information as the underlying universal value.  God acts to maximize freedom.  So should we.

info is good. works in 4d..5d etc.. the other options are too limited. energy is base either way. who knows if 'currency' even exists in the future/ aliens.

[CTTE]

Based on everything I am seeing right now, it really appears to me like the price is ready to take off! (no moon talk... too cliche) but, I think the price would move significantly if it weren't for a few big fish (one?) splashing around in the pool causing Noobs and others to panic whenever they see their trademark sell wall.   

I'm kind of surprised that we haven't beat this bully up, taken away his lunch money and sent him home to momma yet. If you can't tell... I Hate being manipulated like this! But other than that, once his games are done, we should make some pretty massive moves unless, he's tainted the waters for too many people.

There's manipulation happening on both sides, possibly by the same party(s) as on the sell side. That's why you can sometimes see bids jump from 5,200 BTC to 7,400 BTC, then drop to 6,200 BTC, all within a few minutes.

Understood...  I guess I really dislike how blatant it is.  And quite honestly, with holding a margined long position, I can't have someone cutting off my ability to get out of the red when it was his manipulation that forced the price down in the first place.

My main point was however, that if you just look at the basics in the chart you get the feeling this is ready to take off again which IMHO would be a good thing for the community in general.

[aminorex]

..holding a margined long position...

Paying polo margin rates is crazy.  At least mortgage your house or something.  Sell your children, whatever.

[CTTE]

..holding a margined long position...

Paying polo margin rates is crazy.  At least mortgage your house or something.  Sell your children, whatever.

So for several days I will pay between .045% to .0945% Interest per day. Now that is .00045, times the amount, divided by the portion of a day(s) that I hold it.  I should mortgage my house for that? Now, that's crazy!

Or was that sarcasm... sometimes I can't tell!

[protokol]

Just wanna say how much I enjoy reading this thread, it reminds me of the good old days when I first discovered this forum around 2011 and was learning a great deal about blockchain tech, Libertarianism/Anarchism, Austrian economics and the mathematical wonders of public/private key encryption, from like-minded and intelligent posters. While many of the old-schoolers seem to have gone AWOL, the posts by you guys in here are inspiring and educational. Compared to the majority of BCT which has basically turned to dogshit, this thread rocks.

Big ups to Aminorex, Anon136, TrueCryptonaire, Risto, nanobrain and of course the dev crew (deBruyne, fluffypony?). Plus all the other posters I've forgotten that post informative stuff here. I don't post much because I haven't got a lot to give and don't want to decrease the S/N ratio. But I'm always lurking (mwahaha  ) and try and add my 2 XMR when I have something to say.

As far as trading goes, I'm still holding some from buying at 0.0035 before the rise, but just threw in a couple of BTC worth at 0.021. Seems weird getting almost 10 times less XMR for the money, but I really believe in this tech so what the hell...

One question: What is the maximum amount of XMR one should safely hold in a mymonero web wallet? I have most of my holdings in there and now they're worth a reasonable amount, I'm getting a little sketched out. Transfer to paper wallet maybe?

Finally, shameless plug - I am selling some nice Casio G-Shock watches for XMR, I know this isn't the place to advertise goods but I'll just link the thread one time and then never speak of it again. PM me for more info/offeres etc:

https://asktom.cf/index.php?topic=1610064.0